New Highs in Gold Are Nothing – Just Wait For the Fed to Restart Printing | Rafi Farber

➡ Rafi Farber discusses various financial topics, including the repayment of large loans from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, the concept of money velocity, and the impact of currency revaluation on gold and silver prices. It also warns about the risks of investing in numismatics (collectible coins) and discusses the fluctuating prices of luxury goods like rare whiskey, wine, and watches. Lastly, it mentions the rising silver price in Egypt due to currency devaluation and encourages investing in bullion (gold or silver bars) for financial stability.

➡ When a country’s currency loses value, people who have saved in that currency lose purchasing power. This happened in the US in 1934 when the dollar was revalued to gold. This loss of value reveals the true level of poverty in a country, but it also allows trade to continue. In the end, those who have saved in “real money” like gold and silver benefit because their purchasing power increases.

➡ Rafi from Endgame Investor believes that gold will become very valuable when the next financial crisis hits due to increased money printing. He feels that we are nearing a new era where gold and silver will be more important. He encourages people to subscribe to his free content on his website, where he shares his thoughts on money matters. He wishes everyone a good Friday and Easter.

The last of the big ECB loan programs, known as TLTros money Printing, will still have €141 billion to recoup after this week’s installments. The BoE similar tfs me money printing plan was owed about 145 billion pounds at the end of December. About 7% of banks lending, according to RBC. Money printing capital markets analyst Benjamin Toms was probably a money printer. Hey, guys. RAF here from the endgame investor.

And today I wanted to go into a bunch of stuff. One of them is a little bit about numismatics, what they are, the dangers of them, and why you should probably stay away from them if you’re a money stacker, if you like art, you can get numismatics or something fraudulent about numismatics. It’s just not the money market, it’s the art market made out of money. Second is money velocity.

People been talking about money velocity doesn’t mean anything. I’m not so sure it does. I think it’s just a statistical artifact. I’ll go into it anyway. I go into the silver price and the gold price in Egypt, which just repegged its currency to the dollar, like, way higher, because they were running out of foreign exchange. And what that means for the gold market, if you just take it one derivative layer up, you can understand what will happen when the dollar is revalued in terms of gold.

If there’s any gold left in the US treasury, which I don’t know if there is, but let’s assume there is, because we’re not conspiracy theorists here. I’m completely normal and mainstream. The ECB balance sheet is about to fall again because there’s a bunch of loans that are about to be repaid to the ECB from the COVID era. And finally, I took a look at palladium from a different angle.

We’ve all known that the silver and gold ETF’s in the paper markets have been falling. They’ve been bleeding supply, they’ve been bleeding gold and silver out of the ETF’s, out of the storage facilities, out of all transparent funds. And still the gold and silver price have been trending higher. This has happened before in a different metal, specifically in palladium, from 2014 to 2018. And then as those holdings were falling, the palladium price exploded.

Will that necessarily happen in gold? It will not because it happened in palladium, but because we’re in the end stages of the end game, at the beginning stage of the end game, or some stage of the end game, but we’re headed there, definitely so we’re going to compare Palladium to gold and silver. What is happening? And we’ll see why. We’re probably at the beginning of a massive move in gold and silver, like what happened in palladium once the holdings in those ETF’s stopped falling.

Today’s video is brought to you by Miles Franklin, precious metals. You can support this channel by buying your precious metals with Miles Franklin, by calling 855 game end or emailing endgame investorilesfranklin. com dot. These are the weekly specials. We have one 10th ounce gold maples for only dollar 35 over melt. And some people are annoyed at the phrase over melt versus over spot. But can we just give some leeway here? There’s probably a technical reason for that.

I think it’s the proper parlance in the industry to refer to gold as melt and silver as over spot when offering coins. And we can look that up for next week. I will look it up and I will calm everyone’s mind as to what the nomenclature is and should be. Second, we have the 1oz silver krugerrands dated 2023, while supplies last over $3. 10 over spot, not over melt over spot.

This is very important. And finally, if you have got a catalytic converter that just doesn’t work and you need some palladium to fix it, then you can get a 1oz palladium bar for 119. Over spot. Over spot that is not over melt. I am really intrigued by palladium. We will be talking about palladium in this week’s video and today’s video. It’s going to be interesting and fun, and I’ve always wanted to have some palladium just because I think it’s really cool.

So once again, call eight five five, game end or email endgame investor@milesfranklin. com and support the endgame investor and yourself by hacking away the bottom of the pyramid with your gold and silver pickaxe. And with that, let’s get on with the rest of today’s video. So I saw this picture somewhere. I think it was, oh, I guess it’s Yahoo finance here, but it might have been syndicated on zero hedge or something.

I don’t know, whatever. It’s a luxury goods performance relative to the s and P 500. And this is one of the reasons why it’s dangerous to buy numismatics for the sake of stacking. If you are an art collector and you enjoy art and you just love how beautiful rare coins are, by all means, there is nothing wrong with that. But most of the value of a numismatic coin is locked up in the artistic or art, subjective value of how much art is.

I’ll buy it. One art, please. How much is that placemat actually worth? Brannigan exactly $1 billion. I’m not rich. I can’t even buy one measly masterpiece, which can change radically, which includes things like rare whiskey and wine and watches. These prices are all. They go up and down with inflation. The values of the art, portions of these things, and which art is actually 100% art. I’m 40% dolomite.

And who would have known that if you are a rare whiskey collector, over the past ten years, you would have outperformed the s and P by 122%, it looks like. And wine would have been pretty good. Watches, 138%. But the prices of rolexes go up and down like crazy art. It all depends on how much extra money ultra rich people have. And we see coins down here. Coins, I’m not sure if they mean numismatics or they mean bullion, but if you just want money, then just stack bullion, look for the lowest premiums, and if you want art, and you love art, then get numismatics.

But it has nothing to do with the money markets or the monetary system. That’s just art made out of monetary material. And so that’s actually one thing about Miles Franklin. You might have seen these advertisements for companies like Heart of gold or something like that. I’ve seen these on YouTube where. Where these gold companies are pushing gold and silver on people and talking about the monetary system and hedge against inflation.

And they push numismatics on you because it’s higher commission, and that’s where they get the money for the ads. The reason that Miles Franklin is mostly affiliate based is because they don’t really sell numismatics. I mean, not really high value numismatics with these huge commissions. They’re just trying to get bullion out to people so that we can stabilize the monetary system. And I try to stay away from companies that push numismatics, because they can try to get people into that without them really understanding.

I saw Monaco 64 talk about money velocity in his latest video. It was a really good video. I always recommend that channel. Monaco 64, a friend of mine, and he was talking about the money velocity. So the money velocity is really just the money supply divided by the GDP, or is it the reciprocal or something like that? So the higher this is, the faster dollars are being exchanged.

So we see here that since 2020, it’s gone from about 1. 1 to. I don’t know, close to 1. 3, close to 1. 4. Some might have 1. 35. This is the first sustained move in money velocity higher since the lockdowns. It’s been going lower since like 1997. What it means that it went up is simply if the money supply has gone down, the GDP has gone up.

Does that matter? So this could be the initial signs of the head into the crack up boom. It might not be. It might be an irrelevant measure. Don’t put too much stock into this number, I’d say, because it’s a very, very loose number. You have the money supply, which is not exactly defined. You have GDP, which is a B’s calculation anyway, which just calculates the money supply in the first place.

I would keep an eye on this. I wouldn’t take it all that seriously unless we see a serious jump in this. I want to talk about the silver price in Egypt. It’s up 1080% in the last, last ten years. What happens? They moved the pound from, what was it, 15 or 20 to the dollar to like 46 or close to 50 to the dollar. And that was because they had a shortage of foreign exchange and they, because they were, you know, they were messing with the price of the pound.

So nobody wanted to give them foreign exchange at a false exchange rate. That was way below the black market, the real market rate. So they ran out of forex, they couldn’t pay for commodities, people were starving, and so they had to devalue the currency. Now, if you see down here, what I wrote here is think about what’s happening. Think about what’s happening in Egypt if you own silver, right? It also is the same for gold.

We’ll see that chart next. If you own silver, what happens? People who have a bunch of pounds either under their mattresses in Egypt or the banking system in Egypt, they have a certain amount of pounds, they think a certain amount of purchasing power, and all of a sudden the currency is devalued. And then what happens? Like the purchasing power they thought they had is now gone. So if somebody who only has pounds, let’s say you could afford 100 slices of bread, whatever, let’s just say.

And now they can only, they can only buy, let’s say, 20 the next day. When this is devalued, then where does that purchasing power go? It goes into the hands of people with real money, with gold and silver and also dollars in this case, because they’re stepping down to the dollar. But it’s much safer to hold gold and silver than dollars in these types of places, because we don’t know exactly when the dollar is going to collapse.

It’s going to be soon. This was exactly what happened in the United States in 1934, when the dollar was revalued to gold from 21 to 35. It’s the same kind of thing, right? When you have a false market rate for a currency versus the dollar, which is the reserve currency, you have a devaluation and then foreign exchange can flow into your country again. But people are a lot poorer, which is exactly what happened.

From 21 to 35, markets started to work again because the price was no longer lied about, but people were poorer, meaning their poverty was revealed. But that enabled trade to continue. So the repegging of the dollar from 21 to 35 is the same type of thing. Just step it up one level in the derivative scale as an egyptian pound going from 20 to 50, or whatever it is, it’s just a revelation of poverty and then the continuation of the monetary system.

So the move from what will be, what is it now, 22 50 to whatever it’s going to be, say, 50,000, that’s going to be intense in terms of revealing poverty around the United States and all the world that uses the dollar, which is basically everything, the poverty is going to be revealed all at once. But that is going to enable the economic system to continue with a lot more poor people and a lot more rich people of those who own the real money, because their purchasing power will move from the dollar to real money overnight.

Whenever this revaluation happens, whether it will be statutory or by the market, it will happen. Either way, it will be the end game. And by the way, in Egypt, the number here for gold moving up in the past ten years is 1580 3% versus only 1080% for silver. So we see that silver is still lagging gold overall, especially relative to the egyptian pound. So you would have been better off stacking gold than silver in Egypt up to now.

But I do believe in the end game that silver will catch up and then some, because that’s what it always does at the end of a monetary crisis, but it’s always towards the end of it. Until the end, gold outperforms silver, which is happening here. But in the end, silver will outperform gold. Once we get to 15 to one, I would switch over and start buying things with silver and switch all my extra silver to gold.

At that point, the ECB balance sheet I wanted to show you here has been falling as loans are being paid back from the COVID era. This has happened one, two, three times. Majorly since 2021, late 2021, and the balance sheet continues to shrink because of run of the mill QT. But I wanted to show you this article here from Bloomberg that explains this balance sheet action in the European Central bank, the ECB.

The title is bank’s massive debt splurge brings its own set of dangers. So the two paragraphs here, the first one that I wanted to note to read to you, because I’m a good reader, I can narrate, I should like do books on tape and stuff. With lenders facing about €250 billion, which is $271 billion of repayments to the ECB this week, many are turning to so called covered bonds.

Whatever they’re turning to, the point is that there’s $271 billion worth of loans to repay to the ECB that is going to shrink the euro monetary base and bring the eurozone closer to a financial crisis. The second paragraph I wanted to read over here is this one. The huge size of the COVID loan payments means regulators are having to stay vigilant at the moment. I don’t lose sleep over it as the market’s wide open, said Filippo Olawati, head of financials at money manager Federated Hermes.

Good old Hermes. When he stops insulting, that’s when I worry. That’s coming out of Europe. Federated Hermes. The main concern is if the markets close. If that were to happen, meaning there’s a liquidity crunch, the central banks may have to swiftly introduce a liquidity scheme. Well, of course they will. Oh, and this one’s great. Check out all these amazing acronyms. The last of the big ECB loan programs, known as TLTros money Printing, will still have €141 billion to recoup after this week’s installments.

The BoE similar tfs me money printing plan was owed about 145 billion pounds at the end of December. About 7% of banks lending, according to RBC money printing capital markets analyst Benjamin Toms was probably a money printer. Anyway, let’s continue with the slides. And now here is what I wanted to focus on in the introduction. This is pretty interesting. So I’m looking at here the silver holdings of all the transparent silver funds and we’ve seen that since.

Silver squeeze. Silver squeeze is right over here. This little peak when SLV almost fell over. The holdings have been going down in transparent funds since then. There was a big up tick over here, which I will write about at the end game investor on Substack. Try to figure out what that was. I haven’t looked into it yet, but I can’t cover it here now, because, I don’t know, I just noticed it.

So anyway, we see the same thing here, three years. So three, let’s say we’re back here. This is the silver squeeze, February 2021. So we’re now in March 2024. So that’s three years, three years in silver. These holdings have been trending down while price has been trending, let’s say basically sideways to down. It is slightly down, but let’s say sideways. Well, really here in the late 2022 is when the silver price started to recover and we still see trending down.

So meaning basically holdings and price moving in opposite directions for about two years, three years, depending on how you count it. So in gold, it’s more obvious. It’s definitely three years in gold. So for three years, holdings have been trending down and priced has been trending up. Right. We’re at an all time high, a new all time high, about 22 50. This chart is two days old. So we’re about 22 50 now.

And the holdings have been trending down and they still are. Now, when is the last time this happened to a metal? Well, we see it right here in palladium. So the blue line is palladium holdings and we see the price here. So the palladium holdings peaked at the very end of 2014 and they kept falling and falling and falling until early 2020. But as they were falling pretty soon after they started falling, price bottomed here in palladium, then started to head up as holdings were heading down.

So we saw here, we’ll go to the next chart. That holdings were heading down for about three and a half years as price bottomed out over here, and was pretty even into that three, three and a half year fall in palladium holdings for transparent paper palladium funds. And then as the supply of palladium in these funds started to bottom out, the price really started to move higher. So do I think the same thing will happen in gold? Yeah, I do.

And since we’re at about three years here and the price looked to have bottomed out already in gold, I still, I think we’re on that move where price heads higher and higher and the gold holdings in these funds had lower and lower because people trust ETF’s and the other derivatives less and less and less and they want gold in their hand. We’re not there yet. Premiums are still pretty low.

But we’re at the beginning of the move, I think. So if you’re stacking and you want gold at Miles Franklin, then I would call eight five five, game end and do it now. But if you’re looking to trade gold with ETF’s, now is not the best time to buy. But if you’re a stacker, you can’t really take a risk and try to find a dip because the premiums will even out your price anyway.

And so the point I wanted to make people, is that we have been in a market where the ETF’s and the other transparent funds have been losing supply, but the price has been heading higher and higher. We’ve seen this in palladium before and palladium skyrocketed towards the end of that move and I think it will skyrocket again once the money printing starts again. So if gold is this strong now, imagine what it’s going to be when they cut to zero on the next financial crisis.

It’s going to be the end game. I’m pretty sure of it. I could be wrong as I could always be wrong. I am not a prophet, but as I see the geopolitical situations spiraling out of control, I feel ever more confident that we are very close to the end of this nightmare and the beginning of the new golden and silver in age. This is Rafi with the Endgame investor.

Please subscribe for free at ingameinvestor dot substack. com to read my free content there. I do put a piece of every article for free for anyone, all free subscribers. And every so often I do put out a flowery piece on monetary philosophy. The last one was my speech in Hetachtikva in Israel. It’s in English and it’s how the elite will not win. Take a read there and please subscribe there and support this channel.

Thanks. I’ll see you guys next week and have a good Friday and Easter. For those celebrating. .

See more of Rafi Farber on their Public Channel and the MPN Rafi Farber channel.