Vince Lanci: The Gold Gaslighting Continues | Arcadia Economics
Summary
Transcript
For us, gold remains a store of value that also serves as an insurance against many known and unknown risks. Welcome to the morning markets and metals with Vince Lancy, where each day he brings you the precious metals and financial news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning, everyone. I’m Vince Lancy, and in today’s morning meeting, we’re going to look at how stock advisors look at gold a little humorously.
We’re also going to break down yesterday’s action, significant day. So let’s take a closer look at it and then we’ll look at some news. We’re also going to touch on the potential for a real second wave of inflation in premium. But let’s start with the markets, and I’ll leave some charts up and we’ll do the charts first right after that. Okay. The dollars down 17 at 105. 9.
710 year yield is up a basis point at is 50 26, up 14. Handles the VIX is 1658. Continuing to get hit with gold. Gold is 2302. Significant level. I’ll explain why in a second. Down 24. Silver is 26 91, down $0. 27. Copper is down six and a half cents at 440. Gold silver is hovering at 85. Really 77. WTI is down seventy one cents at eighty two oh six.
Natural gas 182 peaking up a little bit. It’s still early, but it could be into some seasonality buying here. Bitcoin is down 730 at 6680. Ethereum is 3174, down 27. Palladium and platinum are both down about seven and a half to $8 at 999 and 909, respectively. Wheat was the big rally yesterday. Wheat was up like 3%, trading 587 now up $0. 05. Corn and soybeans are either side of unchanged, mixed at 434 and 1162, respectively.
All right, charts. Now, yesterday we gave some levels and charts, and on Sunday we gave, you know, reasons and levels to look for. We’re just going to give you a little bit of just levels and price activity yesterday to give you a synopsis if you’re looking for a handle. We talked about this yesterday morning. We talked about all the reasons for a bull market are in the bullion.
Banks had all done their thing. They’d all raised, some raised early, some raised late. The ones that raised early made money. The ones that raised late did not. It’s another conversation. But all these bullish things were in the market even though the media wasn’t talking about them. Three bearish things came out late last week. One was the Comex raising margins a second time. And then China also raising margins.
Thats the second thing for two exchanges that dont talk to each other. Its coordinated. Dont you think? That happened on Friday and it went into effect today for China. The other thing is China put some capital controls on prohibiting excessive speculation on the futures exchange from spilling over into the physical exchange. So that means they knew that there was excessive speculation. And lets be fair. If youre a chinese bank or a chinese fund, youre owned by the government or controlled by the government.
So they were speculating, with permission to say the least. Those things conspired against gold. And we talked about several things that were showing their hand in the market on Sunday. One of them was, this is a Bollinger band. On the Daily Bollinger band, the market had been running up very strong using this yellow line almost as support, and then it spent four or five days underneath it, which is rare in a bull run.
It’s a sign of tiredness. You can look at it as an RSI weakening. And so on Sunday, we decided that the market was toppy, at least short term, and that if it dropped, it would go to the red line first, which it essentially did. And then once that happened, I got everyone to look at the weekly version of this. And the weekly version basically says we’re just overbought coming back to normal.
Which brings us to the first level. The first level that I said to be aware of in a bigger picture move is 22 91 97. So call it 22 91, the market, if the market is healthy on a week to week basis, 22 91, it will not close below 22 91 on the week. If it’s closing below 22 91, you should be aware that it could run all the way down to here, this red line.
Now, I’m not predicting that at all. I’m not even going to put that number out there because there’s other numbers along the way. I’m just saying today’s Tuesday. You want to see how the market acts the rest of the week. If you’re buying dips, you don’t want to buy a dip until Friday. If it’s trading 22 91, you want to buy it today. These are things you want to think about.
All right, so that’s the big overview. I’ll give you a couple levels. And every technician has levels for you. I’m not a technician. I’m giving you levels that I use to manage my own position. So let’s get rid of the Bollinger bands and we’ll give this to you. It doesn’t hold 22 91 on a weekly close basis, it will trade between 22 35 and 21 82. This is me talking to myself.
It’s not like I’m predicting, but I’m just giving you my rules. It will trade. It should trade between 22 31 and 21 82. I’m not going to get into why I believe that, but I believe that. So if the market breaks 21 82, okay. Then I’m looking for the market to go to 214-5215 okay. So giving you all these downside numbers is not to make you panic and think we’re going down, it’s to make you prepared if we go down.
Now, I want to give you some reality check here. For the first time in forever, people have bought gold and aren’t making money, right? Bought it, made money, bought it, made money. Bought it, made money, never lost money, bought it, made money. Everyone who bought it all one day made money one to three days later. Everyone. This is the first time that you have someone who bought it in here that didn’t make money.
Those people are not making money. They will sell. And if they make, other people sell at cascades. Now, a lot of the big buying here, the big buyers, the macro guys, they got in here, so they’re not going to start selling until we get under here, 21 60. So I want them to buy the dip. Anyway, to give you the mechanics of what happened yesterday, all those margin raises in China and the US, they forced commodity trading advisors, which are basically representatives for the retail, to sell.
I don’t know why. I think they were losing a lot of money in stocks on Friday. And so they closed their CTA shorts. I mean, they closed the CTA longs in stocks, right? And then they got margin calls and closed their gold longs because the raised margin, and they were short wheat and they covered their wheat. So this whole dynamic from Friday to Monday was CTA long speculating in stocks, getting hammered, and taking profits in gold to cover margin calls.
Conceptually, that’s what that’s about. And that’s happened for years, if not decades. Anyway, enough with this for now. You have my levels. I think you just want to, you want to be aware that this group of people here that bought and haven’t made money, these guys, hopefully they sold. If they haven’t sold, then they’re going to be selling in here. Retirement rallies. They’re hoping it goes up so they can sell it higher.
Hope is a killer. Fear, hope, whatever the movie says, hope is a killer. You don’t want to be involved with hope if you’re trading, if you’re investing, you can hope because you can set the clock ahead and worry about it five years from now, but you don’t want to be involved in hope if you are trading. All right, so let’s go to the rest of this irritating gold.
I love this. Heres the front page. If youre interested in more in depth of what was going to happen before it happened. We got lucky and his gold headed for a rug pull. And you want to look at who is buying if gold funds are now selling. That was the person who cried uncle. All right, so in premium ts, Lombard opines on the very real possibility of a second wave of inflation.
The gist of it is theres a chart thats been going around forever. This one thats the whole double wave of inflation thing. I personally think we’re in a triple wave, which is even worse. But the double wave of inflation has been debunked because to have the second wave, you need an oil embargo on oil crisis. Well, t’s lumbar reminds us that the chronic problem in the Middle east is now one of those things where on any given day you can have a disruption in oil, the chances persistently are always there and the oil markets going to start discounting that.
And if you have an event that disrupts oil flow, well, you’re going to have your second bump. So oil is the focus for the next wave. Okay. Oil is the focus for the next wave. And all the analysis will be about that. Now commentary. All right, this is to make you understand that most of the world is just nowhere near where you are in your perception of risk.
Most of the world does not like gold. Most of the keynesian, neo keynesian world does not like gold, does not like silver, does not like anything that doesn’t do anything that defies gravity when it’s not adding value to humanity anyway. But the reality of it is they all make money on commissions, and they make money on commissions on research and ideas. So they make money by being smart and by being right.
They don’t make money by being less right than a pet rock. So I have a report by a high net worth investment firm that was shared with me, and they’re forced to talk about gold and they are so dismissive and derisive of it. It’s hilarious because it’s what we’ve been reading for the last ten years, but it’s happening with gold at all time highs. So hope and denial, same thing.
So let me read a little bit from it for you. First of all, their subtitle is irritating. Gold price records the most remarkable development in the first quarter was probably the gold price. After a furious final spurt, the price of the Troy ounce reached a new historic high of us dollar, 22 29 on the last trading day of the quarter. Despite continuous outflows from gold ETF’s since the beginning of the year, the increase has amounted to 8% or even 10.
5% in euro terms. This development is also noteworthy because it took place in secret and seemingly without any reason. I’m telling you, man, these firms, they just love to gaslight you because you’re long gold and they’re not. They need to keep their investors on board. Everything about this report, it’s hilarious. You have to read it. Everything about this report is we don’t know why it went up. It shouldn’t have gone up.
People are disinvesting and then later on it’s, well, China bought, but China’s dumb. China’s in a crisis, they don’t know what they’re doing. It’s textbook gaslighting. But it’s also defending your position to your clients because you weren’t fucking long gold for the run up and they didn’t make money, so you have to attack it. There’s no CEO of gold. There’s no CEO of gold pushing back saying, how dare you? There isn’t.
So that’s why they get away with it. Anyway, let me go through a little more. Then it goes on to, this is me. This is my writing here. Then it goes on to tell you the gold loving Chinese are the culprits and are stupid. China is also struggling with a severe real estate crisis, a sluggish economy, us technology sanctions and rapidly increasing debt. For geopolitical reasons, China is also likely to be keen to further reduce the proportion of its currency reserves invested in US Treasuries.
Recently only 26%. China has presumably shifted a not insignificant portion of its dollar reserves into gold and could continue this strategy. The actual gold holdings are now likely to be significantly higher than the 25, 22, 58 tons officially reported by the central bank at the end of March. It’s more like 5000 tons. All right, so then it goes on to tell you why they’re buying gold. They shouldn’t be buying gold gold.
And then they have to. There are all kinds of things in here that say the chinese buying is stupid. You should have your money in stocks anyway. It ends with, to give you an idea of how denial people are in that section, it’s a big section, but that section ends with, for us gold remains a store of value that also serves as an insurance against many known and unknown risks.
That’s true. That’s what it is. It’s insurance because gold has no counterparty risk. That’s true. Which shows they’re not dumb. They understand what gold is and then they say, and if the price shoots up to excessively high levels, profits can be taken. So if you’re long goal, they want you to sell to put it in stocks. It’s just you don’t sell your insurance when the house is on fire.
That’s what they’re telling you to do anyway. These people will be the ruin of a generation. Ruination of a generation. These people are repulsive. You know, that’s the way it is. All right, so anyway, market news. Tesla kicks off tech earnings on Tuesday with its stock at its lowest point price since early 2023. Yes. So this could be a sell the rumor, buy the news type of thing.
Big week for earnings, I think Google, Microsoft, etcetera, etcetera. The federal. I love this one. The Federal Trade Commission on Monday sued to block the merger of two premium handbag makers because that’s important right now. Nobody’s buying handbags anymore. Goldman Sachs is closing down its automated investing business for the masses after clinching a deal with betterment. Yeah, Marcus was the name of that organization and it’s a sign that the financial industry is shrinking.
Giant investment companies are taking over the financial system. That’s not new, but they’re going to tell you that geopolitically, it’s all about Israel again. Will Israel do more? Okay, so you can read that data on deck again. It’s a back ended week, right. But today is flash PMI services, which are very important right now. They were really low and they’re off the lows and they’re on their, they’re starting to move aggressively higher now, which is a sign of inflation.
Okay, so let me just. Sorry, I, I covered the stocks a little bit there. Right. There we go. We don’t want to cover the tape too much. All right. So Thursday we have GDP and Friday we have PCE and we have the reports. We have three things for you today. One, the hilarious investment newsletter to high net worth individuals who will be poor in about 20 years. We have a nice little technical package from a firm that does the work.
It’s nothing, I think, aggressively predictive, but it really gives you a nice base. And then we have the T’s Lombard report, which I’m a big fan of. I’m a big fan of Dario Perkins writing who wrote this? So I’m Vince. Let’s check quickly back in the markets. Gold is down 24. Holding that 23. 91. 92 area. It’s okay if we dip below it. We can’t close the week below it.
Some of you that are Fibonacci people, you’re going to do a Fibonacci from here to this high and you’re going to do a Fibonacci from here to this high. Those are reasonable things that I would do and I would expect buyers to come in at those levels at least the first time. The question is, is there anyone left that needs to buy the dip? Because I do think a short was blown out and I think it was a bank, or at least a trader at a bank was blown out last week.
Let’s see if there’s anyone left to be sure. All right, I’m Vince. Have a great day. Thanks for watching this morning’s markets and metals update with Vince Lancey, brought to you each day by Miles Franklin Precious metals, where this week’s special is junk silver for only $2. 75 over spot. Junk Silver is the pre 1965 dimes and quarters, and one of the products where we did see premium spike in the past couple of years.
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