Summary
Transcript
The price of bitcoin continues to outperform every other asset. It’s up 25% in just the last couple of weeks. It’s up 130% over the last twelve months. And bitcoin’s price exploded higher again, outperforming every other asset. Did you catch it? Now, how is it that some people seem to be ahead of the curve and most people seem to miss it? A big part of this is because of a huge misconception about bitcoin, the brand new bitcoin etfs and market cycles and how they all work together.
So in this video, we’re going to jump into how most people misunderstand how bitcoin is becoming the new Wall street darling. The role of etfs and how it faked most people out, but clearly shows what’s next and what your next move should be if you want to participate or miss getting crushed. So let’s go. All right, welcome back. If you’re new to the channel, my name is Mark Moss.
I make these videos to change the way you think about money. Because, yes, almost everything you’ve learned is wrong. And if you don’t understand what money is or how it works, then maybe that’s part of the reason why you’re missing this. You see, money isn’t something that the government gives to us. Money is something that we use naturally to trade, to store value. I’m not going to get into what money is, but just understand, if you expand your definition, maybe you’ll understand this a little bit better.
But let’s just get into this. Bitcoin, as I said, it’s been the best performing asset. Now, I know we can cherry pick dates and times, and I can show you plenty of charts over three months or six months where it’s lost value or gone up. So we want to look at them over reasonable times. Like ten years, like three years, it’s up 1235% since the pandemic. So a lot of times we look at pre pandemic and post pandemic because the financial system really changed.
2008, it changed, changed again in 2020. So since 2020, it’s up 1200% in the last year. Twelve months, it’s up 144%. This year to date, it’s up 21%. Done pretty good. Now, Wall street, of course, sees this. Wall street sees that it’s been the best performing asset. Wall street sees how much money’s been made. And of course they want a piece, right? They want to financialize the entire economy.
They want to financial everything. And so of course, they’ve been trying for decades now to get in and get a piece, as a matter of fact, Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, the Winklevoss twins of Gemini, they filed on July 1 of 2013 to launch the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust, which was an ETF at the time, and back then, the price of bitcoin was roughly $100 $100. Now, of course, the SEC denied that.
They denied it the Winklevoss’s attempt again in 2017, noting the lack of regulation in the bitcoin market. And they said that it raised concerns about the potential for fraudulent or manipulative acts and practices, which is the same story and song they continue to tell for many, many years to come. Then we saw grayscale investments come along, and they weren’t able to launch the ETF, but they launched what was known as the Bitcoin Trust, GBTC, and they first submitted a bitcoin ETF application in 2016.
And they spent the better part of 2017 in conversations with the SEC, but it all failed. We saw Bitwise file for a physically backed bitcoin ETF in 2019, but it withdrew its request in January 2020 amid SEC concerns. Now, there was many others along the way, more than a dozen issuers with a bitcoin ETF application, who were in front of the SEC. But it all changed when BlackRock.
BlackRock, the evil empire. It all changed when BlackRock turned heads last June when it revealed its intention to launch a bitcoin ETF. Now, as soon as I saw BlackRock launch an ETF, I felt it was going to go through. I was pretty confident at that point. The fund titan manages more than $9 trillion in assets, the largest asset manager in the world, and they’ve only ever had one proposed ETF ever rejected by the SEC.
I think it’s like 350 approved, one that was denied. And they’re sort of like the semi quasi arm of the government. They help the government do a lot of things, as we saw, like in the 2020 pandemic through the bank collapse in 2023. And so if they’re submitting a proposal for an ETF, they have the government’s ear. They know what’s happening. And I figured it would go at that point.
Now, another milestone, some industry watchers believe that really allowed these spot bitcoin etfs to get approved was when Grayscale actually won in court against the SEC in August, and the SEC opted to not appeal the decision. And that seemed to really turn the corner if their decision wasn’t already made before because of, like I said, blackrocketing. In. But the regulator denied the firm’s proposed conversion of GBTC to an ETF in 2022.
And then. So then Grayscale sued the SEC in response. I love the response. The judges in the case ruled that the SEC’s decision to block this conversion but approve a bitcoin futures ETF was arbitrary and capricious. That’s what their words were. I had to look that up. You might, too. And then, ultimately, what turned the tide was the SEC was forced to capitulate, and the bitcoin etfs were finally approved.
Now, most people didn’t realize how big the etfs really are, so let’s talk about this for a minute. I’m going to talk about it from sheer numbers and size, but let me talk about something else that’s even bigger. And I’m talking about the psychological piece. You see, whenever there’s a brand new technology that’s introduced, it always follows a predictable path. I talk about cycles all the time. Now, you might have seen this chart before.
It’s called the diffusion of innovation. It’s like a bell curve. So first you have the innovators. These are like the people that develop the code, and then you have the true believers that come along, and they’re the revolutionaries that continue to talk about it. But most people don’t get in because there’s the chasm, and the chasm has to be crossed before the early majority can get in, and then eventually the late majority.
So what is the chasm? You see, the chasm is a psychological divide where the mindset has to shift. You see, the true believers get in. They’re the psychopath, right? They see it, and they can envision this future, and they grasp onto. It’s the people that latched onto all new technology when it first came out. The nerds, right? The techies, the geeks, whatever you want to call them. But the chasm is where it becomes normal.
So think about the Internet in 2007, when we got the iPhone that crossed the chasm. And the chasm, as a lot of people, maybe you, watching this, think that bitcoin is a scam. It’s a tulip bulb. It’s a pump and dump. It’s magic Internet money. You can’t hold it in your hand. All of these things, and those are all normal things about a new technology. It’s too hard to use.
It could be stolen. The government’s going to make it illegal, whatever you have, right? And those are all good thoughts to have about a new technology. It’s okay to be skeptical you’re not a true believer, but if you want to be part of the early majority, you have to understand the chasm. And so the chasm is being crossed right now. The chasm. When Larry Fink, the largest asset manager in the world, like I said, quasi semi arm of the government, goes on national tv and changes his mind about bitcoin, you have to take notice.
When you have etfs, when you have fidelity, when you have your fund manager putting bitcoin into your portfolio without even asking you, it starts to change the mindset. People start to realize, oh, shoot, I guess this is legitimate. I guess my financial advisor is telling me, and that’s what changes the chasm. Let’s look at what Larry Fink, so in 2017, he called it, quote, an index of money laundering.
An index of money laundering. Now, at the time, bitcoin was around $5,000 in 2023. He called it a safe haven. He said, quote, this rally is firmly grounded in reality and goes well beyond mere rumors. It is a response to the growing uncertainty surrounding events such as the israeli conflict. He added, more. More and more individuals are seeking refuge in assets that are considered safe havens, be it in the form of treasuries, gold, or cryptocurrencies.
Man, what an about face going from, oh, it’s an index for money laundering, to now people are going to it for safe havens. So what this ETF does is not only help cross the chasm, but it also increases massive demand, because we get a lot of passive investors. Somewhere about 30% to 40% of investors don’t actually invest their own money. They allow someone else to do that for them.
And these fund managers are now taking allocations to bitcoin without their clients even knowing. As a matter of fact, in a poll, 72% of financial advisors said they would recommend a bitcoin once an ETF was approved. Now, that’s sort of the big numbers, but let’s dig into the data here. So if this is so big, if the ETF was such big news, then why did we have a sell off as soon as the etfs were announced? Now, I made a video in December 5, and I gave a warning.
It’s going to be a buy the rumor, sell the news event. And the reason why I gave is because most people thought as soon as etfs were approved, everyone would go buy the etfs, which would push the price of bitcoin up, which is what happened. However, there was a big sell off. First part of the people that sold off were people that were trying to front run the trend.
So they bought the rumor. As soon as the news was announced, they sold. But we also saw massive selling from GBTC. Remember, grayscale tried to launch an ETF, but they launched a trust instead. People had their money locked up in that for years and were getting charged exorbitant fees. They wanted to get out. And so as soon as it got released, they started selling. And I told you it’d be a buy the dip moment.
I said, don’t get shaken out because Wall street will probably want to buy your bitcoin from you, so don’t give it up. As a matter of fact, it’ll be the buy the dip moment. That’s exactly what we saw. We saw the price drop 22% as soon as it got announced, from 49,000 all the way down to 38,000. And now it’s bounced all the way back up and just broke that number at the time of this recording.
Now let’s talk about what the future holds. That’s what we all care about, right? The coming surge. Now, what we’ve seen already is the bitcoin etfs that are there have already attracted $10 billion in assets under management. In less than a month, spot bitcoin etfs within just 20 days of trading from their market debute accumulated more than 10 billion in assets. Just think about how big that number is.
It illustrates how strong investor enthusiasm is for this new investment avenue. The demand that’s been sitting there. Now, the two biggest winners of this bitcoin ETF race are Blackrock, of course, iShares Bitcoin Trust, Ibit and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, FBTC. And on the other side, we had the massive selling of the grayscale bitcoin trust, the GBTC. But we’ve seen that starting to slow down. So we’ve seen it slowing down, the selling slowing down, but the buying has been ramping up, which, of course, we’re starting to see all over in the price.
Now, we know that bitcoin etfs collectively grew so fast that they overtook the second largest ETF in just. I think it was five days, which was silver. And look at what happened when the gold ETF was first launched. The gold ETF is the largest ETF that’s out there. And as you can see on the chart, from the time the ETF was announced until the peak, it went on quite a run.
Now, could we expect bitcoin to go on a similar run? I think so. As a matter of fact, it’s probably going to even be bigger. Now, what we can already see today, understanding that all price is the equilibrium of supply and demand, we can see that first off, the bitcoin supply is capped. Never be more than 21 million. We’ve never seen a commodity like that. When the price of oil or gold goes up, we get more oil and gold, more people go mine it or bring it out of the ground or whatever.
But because bitcoin is a fixed supply cap, it can’t get more. So then we have to look at the demand side. Now, what we can see right now is the bitcoin etfs are adding 9000 bitcoin per day, which as you can see on the chart right now, is directly pushing the price up. But let’s just put this into some way that you can understand this for a second.
So they’re adding 9000 bitcoin per day. Now, there will never be more than 21 million bitcoin. Of that 21 million, about 19 million or so is like free floating or trading. Of that, about 1. 5 million is potentially up for sale. That’s what we can see on exchanges. We can see the days and how long it’s been since it’s moved. So about 1. 5 million bitcoin. Now, there is new bitcoin being created every day, about 900.
So that’s the inflation. So 9000 are being taken off the market, but there’s only 900 new ones. Pretty big imbalance now to make it even worse or better. Depends on which side you’re on. In just a couple of short months, we have an event called the bitcoin having, which will literally cut that amount from 900 new bitcoins per day in half to 450. So what do you think happens when the demand stays the same and the supply gets cut in half? What happens when the demand goes up and the supply gets cut in half? I think you have a pretty good idea.
So now let’s answer the next question. So now that you know all this, should you buy now, should you wait? And if so, if you should buy, should you buy it in an ETF or should you buy it directly? All right, first let’s talk about should you buy it through an ETF or direct? And then we’ll get back to should you buy it now or wait, so should you buy it in the ETF or direct? So there’s pros and cons to both, right? Most people don’t want to think linear like that, or most people want to think linear, but really there’s nuance to both.
And so I can say there’s reasons why you would want to buy or own either. Let’s go through those. So, first of all, I think that one of the biggest revolutionary pieces about bitcoin is that I can own it myself. I can custody the asset. I can take delivery. It costs me no money to secure it. No one can seize it, steal it, censor it. If I want to send it to you, nobody can stop it, block it, prevent it.
That’s revolutionary. And so we should all participate in that. If you want to be part of the bitcoin ecosystem, you should take delivery of it. However, there’s lots of reasons why maybe you can’t, or maybe even you shouldn’t. So what are those? If I have money in a retirement account, let’s say some sort of a retirement vehicle, like a IRA, something like that. And I can’t manage that money.
I can’t direct that money myself. And I’m not able to buy bitcoin with that money. Well, I can only buy equity. So in this now, I could buy bitcoin through that retirement account. I have access to the bitcoin price. I don’t actually own the bitcoin. I don’t have custody of it. So that’s number one. So it’s an easy way to get access. Now, again, if you can get it, you should.
Now, another way is that I think the security is pretty easy. If you can learn how to do venmo, you can figure out how to do bitcoin. It’s about the same process. However, some people, maybe they’re not technically adept, maybe they feel a little bit intimidated. And so maybe owning through an ETF might be a better first step for them to sort of get that first exposure and then move on.
I always recommend you take delivery of it yourself if you can always own the physical. But the ETFs make sense in some cases now. So should we buy bitcoin now or should we wait? So, as I already showed, the massive amount of demand for bitcoin, not just with the people, but now through the ETFs and through Wall street, is massive on a level we’ve never seen. I showed you how the price of the ETFs adding bitcoin is directly pushing the price up.
And I told you that 72% of financial advisors would recommend their clients buy bitcoin once the ETFs get approved. This is not a sugar rush. This is not a couple of weeks or a couple of months. This is years. I showed you what happened to the price of gold once the ETFs got approved. And I would imagine we’re going to see the same thing over the next 6810 years or decades.
All right, so with that being said, we should buy. Some of you might be waiting for a pullback. Some of you have been waiting for a pullback that never came. And so I do want to give you a warning. Nothing ever goes up in a straight line or nothing ever goes down in a straight line. The ETFs will introduce more volatility because now not only are we able to go long, there’s also ETFs that now allow us to go short.
So I would expect one, we’re going to have increased volatility. So be careful for that. Now, should you buy now or wait? The second part we’ll look at is time frames. So if you’re planning to buy and hold for five years, ten years, 30 years, 50 years, or generations like me, it doesn’t really matter. If you pick it up at 50 or you pull it back onto 45, what’s the difference, right? So if you have the right time frames, it doesn’t really matter.
I would start buying now. If you want to trade it, then maybe you want to wait for the right time to buy and the right time to sell. But I do not recommend that. The reason why is you see, bitcoin have these very explosive moves, like what’s happened in the last couple of days, and it’s very hard to time that. So by the time the indicators turn in your favor, it’s already moved.
In hindsight, you look at the chart, it looks very easy to trade. But the problem is, like I said, it moves so quickly, most people miss out on that. So I recommend taking a long term time perspective on that. Two, I think that as long as you hold it for five plus years, you’re going to be okay. Now, one final thought. I’m going to address one misconception or maybe one piece of fud, fear, uncertainty and doubt that’s holding people back.
A lot of people still think that the US government could make bitcoin illegal. So my question to you is, do you think that Wall Street, Fidelity, Blackrock, et cetera, who spent billions of dollars to bring these new products to market and are now making billions of dollars, do you think they just sit back and allow the government to make it illegal? If the answer is yes, then you probably don’t know the way the government and bills and regulations and lobbying works.
If the answer is no, then you should probably be buying some. And if so, you might want to know more about the bitcoin ETF specifically and how this works. And if so, watch that video right here. And if you want to know more about the future of the monetary system, how we go to gold and then bitcoin, watch this video right here. All right. But either way, let me know what you think.
Leave me a comment down below. Of course, give me a thumbs up if you like the video. If you don’t, thumbs down. That’s okay. At least leave me a comment. Tell me why subscribe if you’re not already subscribed? And that’s what I got to your success. I’m out. .
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