BRICS Announce Resolution For New Payment Settlement Activities | Arcadia Economics

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Summary

➡ Arcadia Economics talks about how the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are holding a forum to discuss ways to enter new markets, increase trade and investment, and strengthen ties between businesses, governments, and communities. They plan to adopt a resolution on new payment, settlement, and emission activities. In other news, Vince Lancey discusses the current state of various markets, including the dollar, gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies. He also talks about the “Bend and Snap” trend in gold and silver markets, which refers to a quick drop in price followed by a rapid increase.

Transcript

For now, the organizers also noted that the main goals of the event will be to promote the smooth entry of BRICS countries into new markets, mutual trade and investment, as well as strengthening ties between business circles, governments, and communities. According to the organizing committee of the forum, a resolution will be adopted on new payment, settlement, and emission activities of the countries of the associations. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey, where each day he brings you the precious metals in financial news to get you ready for your day.

And now, here’s Vince. Good morning. I’m Vince Lancey, and in today’s morning meeting, we’re going to talk about Silver’s Bend and Snap, a continuation of yesterday’s conversation. And we’re also going to talk about recent developments in the BRICS. They’re having a monetary conference now, and I think the tone of one of their messages is predictive and, you know, in a good way for gold, in a bad way for dollars. Anyway, we’re going to talk about that and maybe one or two other things if I, if, depending on how efficient I am today.

Let’s start with the markets. The dollar is $104.76, up 15. The 10-year yield is $456.01 after getting hit hard yesterday, on a combination of reasons. The S&P 500, $52.75, down 32 handles. The VIX 14.03, up 1.12. Gold is $25.43, down 16 and change. Silver, $31.89. Down 17, copper is $4.75, down 9. WTI is up 21, higher again, at 80, 88. Sorry, natural gas is $2.52, down 5 cents. Bitcoin, $67,828, down 5.19. Ethereum, $38.18, down 21. Latium, down 19 at $9.61, and platinum, down 4 at $10.50. That pair will continue to do that until whoever has this speculative position on throws in the towel.

Could be at a good price, could be at a bad price. We don’t know. Grain, soybeans are down 4 at $12.18. Corn is $4.53, an unchanged offered, and wheat is $7.06, down 4 cents. Okay, today you can see on the screen there, we have a nice little commentary by MUFG on Asian commodity prices and how they’re affecting Asian currencies. It’s mostly about China. You know, I don’t really think commodities are affecting Japan right now, but I think there’s a lot of merit to this. Anyway, we’re also going to talk about the bend and snap.

But before we do that, I want to go talk about this. Here’s yesterday’s cover, silver update with Michael Oliver comment, a lot of people like that. There’s an article from Robbel. Ricks to create alternative swift, alternative to swift. Okay, these type of headlines are generic, but we took it off of the TASS news agency. And I want to read this to you, and then show you, you know, how what I see in it, if it’s of any help to you. So via the Russian news agency TASS, Moscow, May 27, the BRICS International Financial and Economic Forum, IFE Forum BRICS 2024 will open on Monday, two days ago, in Moscow, and will gather about 700 guests from around the world.

Tens of thousands of participants will connect to the event online ministers, representatives of diplomatic missions, company executives and experts will discuss the creation of independent financial instruments within the BRICS framework and business development amid global transformation. Next paragraph, according to the organizing committee of the forum, a resolution will be adopted on new payment, settlement and emission activities of the countries of the association. Last paragraph for now, the organizers also noted that the main goals of the event will be to promote the smooth entry of BRICS countries into new markets, mutual trade and investment, as well as strengthening ties between business circles, governments and communities.

Okay, this is a trade show. Okay, the BRICS, when the BRICS went on their merry way after last year’s meeting, they had agendas, everyone had homework to do homework assignments. And one of those homework assignments was to accept and submit any financial or technological platforms that would make it easier for members to connect. So it’s like, you know, you’ve got your different technological platforms that are saying use ours, use ours, and the unit happens to be one of them. That’s very well liked. And we’ll talk about that more some other time.

I want to stay with this for now. So this is an opportunity to flex rushes running these this year. And Russia is running the main event in November as well, October as well. So this is an opportunity to flex, this is an opportunity to show your wares as a country and make contributions. It’s not that significant. But there’s some wording that’s different. And this paragraph, I think is significant if you look at things like a lawyer, which I have to do sometimes, according to the organizing committee of the forum, a resolution will be adopted on new payment, settlement and emission activities of the countries of the association.

So they’re all going to agree on terms for a platform. That’s important. All the talk about technology, oh, this, that, you know, you’ve heard we probably broke it discussing how M trade was going to aggregate flows. Well, you can’t even you can’t build a platform until you have standards. Okay. And by the way, most technology like that now is off the shelf. I’m not saying go out and buy it at, you know, Home Depot. But I am saying that these things are already written, you know, swift is using them trading platforms on the CME use them.

You know, these are basically messaging systems, electronic communication networks. And what you really need to make these things work that you can almost literally buy off the shelf is you need to have the terms. What are the terms? What are we trading? We trade in gold. Are we trading gold and some bonds? And so they’re coming up with the terms, which means that everyone has agreed. That’s really important. You know, okay, Turkey can’t use its pistachios. You know, okay, we’re going to use 40% gold, 60% gold, maybe 10% silver. I don’t know.

Right. But the point is the terms are being agreed upon, which is a big step. Now, if that’s what this says, and I believe it does, then this is a step forward. This is, this is a sign of agreement. Anyway, and they put in admission activities there as well, which is kind of funny. They’re just going to copy what the West has done and just actually do it. Anyway, so I think, I think this is an important step. I don’t want to make too much of it. It doesn’t mean that they’re ready to launch.

You’re going to read that some other places, you know, they’re ready to launch. They may be ready to launch. I don’t know, you know, but they’re, they’re, they’re coming out as a team. They’re announcing the partnership. This is a continuation of the joint statement that Russia and China did. Okay. So it’s significant. We have that on the homepage and that’s an unlocked news story. The bend and snap. Do you remember, you may remember, there was a movie called legally blonde Reese Witherspoon. And there was a scene where her in her nail salon, I forget the actress’s name, but she’s very funny.

She was shy and, and Reese Witherspoon, the character told her to, to use her charm and her charm basically meant, you know, bend and snap, which would be drop something, pretend that you’re helpless and going to get it. And then when you come up, look much, you know, throw your chest out, look a little bit prettier, at least to, you know, a man who’s thinking about those things. Anyway, so, so that applies to gold for the last, I don’t know, two years. And it’s applying to silver right now. So let me just, we’ll just do the entertainment part.

All right. The bend and snap is defined by me as the following. It’s a V-shaped bottom. You can see the yellow ones there. It’s a V-shaped bottom where the down part is almost all red, preferably entirely red. The up part is of, you prefer shorter duration. So it’s actually slanted in a little bit and it has, it’s mostly green. It doesn’t have to be all green, but mostly green. Now, these are principles, I’m describing principles that also are associated with head and shoulders, that are also associated with rounding bottoms, that are also associated with cup and handles, right? But the bend and snap, I’m going to call it, basically is this.

The market drops quickly and precipitously. It has a V-shaped bottom and it goes up almost as quickly, sometimes more quickly. The key is the volume here. One of the keys is, I’m not going to tell you all of them, the volume here has to be actually smaller than the volume here. When it gets up to this line at the top of the, wherever you draw your line, if it breaks it, you expect a strong move. And as a target, you would hope for the depth of the to be added to the top.

Now, this isn’t a perfect V-shaped bottom. This isn’t a perfect bend and snap, but it worked, okay? This, not a bend and snap. We have to get up to at least here, right? This one is like, this is textbook, right? In fact, here’s your bend, here’s your snap, right? And there’s another little bend and snap in it. It’s almost like a mini cup and handle, right? Cup, handle, boom. So bend and snap. This step from the top of this goes up to here, bend and snap. This step goes up to here.

This is classic bull market behavior. A week long gets shaken out. The big buyer is there. In this case, it was central banks and sovereign wealth funds. And in this case, it was, here’s your macro guys coming in, but this is it. This is your big buyers, your bend and snap. We never get those in silver, but let’s go from a monthly in gold to a weekly in gold, right? So bend and snap up. We didn’t get the full V height, but we got a nice move, right? Bend, snap on a weekly, boom, up to here, right? I’m not saying you sold it there, but that’s where it went.

Bend and snap up to here and see this here. This is the first one. I mean, you could call this a bend and snap. This is the first one where we got above it and didn’t continue. And that concerned me. So here’s some dailies, right? Bend and snap hits that took a little bit longer, but still it worked, right? Bend and snap slow higher. And then really not a lot of, you could call this a bend and snap, but it has, volumes have to do with it too. All right. So now we go to the payday, right? Silver rarely get a bend and snap and silver.

So even when gold was rallying, right? Here’s your bend failed snap, right? Here’s your bend. Maybe not really. This is not a bend and snap, although it doesn’t look very nice though. Right? All right. Well, we got one now. Okay. We got one bend snap. Okay. We’re up there. Now I kind of hid the wicks. So let me just go to the actual chart for everyone. I believe that above 32 50, this market should run strong as high as $35 take two 50. That’s called a measured move. Now you might want to say, if we get above this line, that’s fine.

That’s fine. This line, this line, I don’t care. The point is you’re going to see continuing. You should see not going to, I don’t want to jinx it. You should see continuing confirmation of this concept. Now, how does it work? Why does it work? Well, it works pretty simply because of this between here and here, someone gets bearish or someone’s no longer bullish. And so they sell and they sell hard and they drive the market lower and a bear market. You get a little bit of a bear flag and boom, you’re gone.

Right? When you get a V shaped bottom, that’s a sign that there’s someone down here catching falling knives. Who’s very willing to do that. Right? When we get back up here, who’s left to sell it? Well, not this guy because he may not have gone to the market here. He may not have gone to the market here, but on here and here, he puked. He went to the market. Anyone else who copycatted him is short. If we get back above here, any small fry who sold it will buy. Anyone who’s copycatting him, they’re late to the party.

And this market has a recipe to go a lot higher. Again, this is very similar to a cup and handle, right? You have the rounding bottom, everyone sells over a long period of time. And then you have the climb, which is usually a little bit steeper and with accompanying volume, then you had your little pullback and then you’re off to the races. So that’s where I’m coming down in silver. Now, the reason I think it’s important other than the obvious is because if there you go, gold didn’t give us one, silver did.

This is a silver leadership market. Now, macro discretionary is in it. People like Michael Oliver are looking at the market that way, not necessarily a macro discretionary, looking at it from a technical point of view. Other people that I trust are telling me that as well. And so it’s a silver leadership market right now. In a bear market, silver leadership fails in a bull market. Well, silver leadership drags gold higher. So to put it even more convoluted, but easy to understand if you’re thinking about in black and white, I would not be short gold if silver gets above 35, 30, 3250.

Right? I mean, I won’t be short silver. I’d be long silver, but I would not be short gold. And that’s how it works. I think I have something wrong that I wrote as well, right? Oh, there it is. Sorry. All right. So here’s some levels go below 2333 could air gap of 2285. Remember, that’s that trading range that we talked about before. Silver above 3240 implies 3450 bend and snap. I just went through that. No ease until September earliest likely not at all. Look, the markets are just continually hoping for easing. Assume that it’s not going to happen.

So why are we this high? It’s because of Nvidia. No easy till summer is the Nvidia crash. Narrow does go corporate. The question you should ask yourself is that this whole market is being propped up by Nvidia. And, you know, rightly so. I mean, you know, you can’t get in the way of the video. Nvidia is like the head of the snake. And as long as it’s alive, the body will just keep following along with it. Pied Piper concept. What happens to gold and silver if Nvidia crashes historically, gold and silver go down too, because everything deflates a little bit.

I think you won’t have as exaggerated of a move lower in metals because A, there’s buyers because B, if we do have a crash, the Fed will probably have to ease. Who knows? You know, it’s ridiculous with stocks at this price, but that’s how it works. And C, well, the ease people think about inflation. So the ease will bring inflationary fear. So it used to be if the Fed eases put ninety five cents in the stocks and five cents in the gold. Now it’s going to be the Fed eases put 50 cents in the stock, 25 cents in the gold, 25 cents in the silver.

That’s it. And there we have the rise in commodity prices and the effect on Asian effects at the bottom. Thursday is GDP and Friday is PC. So there will start to be increasing noise as we head into that final comment. Yesterday’s activity in stocks, I think, was significant in that the whole world reacted to the U.S. bond market. So consumer competence came in confidence came in strong, which is bearish for easing hopes. The bond auction was poorly absorbed, which is bearish for global yields, which took down stocks everywhere. And we’re seeing continuation of that now.

So there you go. Gold’s down 17 dollars. That makes sense. Anyone who’s buying gold because they think the Fed’s going to ease is going to sell on that news. But most people are buying gold because of the Fed’s going to ease. So those are dips to buy if you’re brave enough. I’m Vince. Have a great day. Thanks for watching this morning’s markets and metals update with Vince Lanci brought to you each day by Miles Franklin Precious Metals where this week’s special is 2023 dated one ounce silver cougarands from the South African Mint for only three dollars and ten cents over spot.

And even with the price rallying, fortunately, the premiums are still on the lower side. And to get a full price list or place an order for silver cougarands at three dollars and ten cents over spot, just email us at Arcadia at Miles Franklin and we’ll be happy to get you set up with anything you need. And as always, thanks for watching. Hope you’re having a great day out there. Please note that this video is not intended as legal license financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions.

And thanks for watching. [tr:trw].

See more of Arcadia Economics on their Public Channel and the MPN Arcadia Economics channel.

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