➡ The expectation is for gold prices to increase in 2025, largely influenced by the performance of the US stock market, Treasury yields, and Bitcoin. The past four years have seen a decrease in gold ETFs, but this trend is predicted to reverse. The report also suggests that if the US stock market continues to thrive and interest rates remain high, investors may continue to overlook gold. However, if there’s a shift in these conditions, gold could become a more attractive investment option.
➡ The article discusses the potential for Bitcoin to differentiate itself, the correlation between Dogecoin and Bitcoin, and the possibility of gold becoming necessary for international trade. It also mentions that China and other central banks are accumulating gold to move away from dollars. The article suggests that a crash in China could be beneficial for gold and that Bitcoin may need to increase in value compared to gold by 2025. Lastly, it discusses the potential for oil to increase in value and the steady rise of gold and silver.

Consensus is for gold to rise in 2025, but risks may be leaning toward a lot versus a little if ETFs are a guide. A top force for the metals rally to accelerate is if the US stock market and Treasury yields decline and Bitcoin could lead the way. Four years of gold ETF outflows may be as bad as it gets. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey. Where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Okay, let’s start with the markets.

U.S. 10-year, 469, 470, unchanged bid, the dollar is 109.13, down almost 3. SB 500 is 59.08, up 7. VIX is 18.21, up 14, gold is 26.77, up 7 and change. Silver is 30.31, up 22. Copper is 430, up 2. WTI is 76.70, up 2. What? Holy crap. Okay, I didn’t see that. Up 220. All right, that’s good. Natural gas, 384, up 9. Bitcoin, 94.900, 2500 higher. Ethereum tracking, up almost 3% at 33.14. Palladium, 9.49, up 22. Platinum at 960, up 1. Gold, silver, stable and slightly softer. Growing up WTI while we look at grains.

Soybean, up 7 cents, 10 even. Corn, 4.48, up 1 cent. W-H-E-A-T. Wow. Thinking of oil, WTI, I wanted to say 5.40, up one and a third. Okay. To the homepage. Yesterday’s posts. Special Trump’s New American Empire Unfolding. That’s a podcast. That is a special podcast. Essentially, if you’ve been a long-time listener or follower or reader or subscriber, it’s basically a logical extension from the whole. The world is moving into a mercantilist environment now. Encapsulating Trump’s recent comments with the United States’ agenda to remain competitive in the world. On the left, an actually a very important post for those of you who follow miners.

RBC predicts high returns of capital. At least, well, put it this way, Jordan over at the Daily Gold. He looks at stuff like this all the time. Cash flows, free cash flows in this environment are important, especially for miners and their expenses, their rising expenses. Founders A.M., we sent this out this morning. Big banks see lower than expected payrolls. By the time you see this, payrolls may be out. The bigger banks are expecting a lower number than consensus, in part due to a seasonal drop-off that some may have missed. Main story, discussion. Gold ETF outflow set to reverse in 2025.

Okay, quick background. Mike McGlone is at heart a technician at Bloomberg on the terminal. You can find him on X, Twitter, whatever else you’d like to call it. But he’s unique in the sense that most of his technical work is about correlations. And, you know, when you work at Bloomberg and you have access to that kind of data, you tend to look at correlations and it’s very helpful. The reason I bring him up in this context is because much of the work we do here is correlation based. You know, for the last two years, you know, when you see the dollar gold correlation break, when you see the gold bond rate correlation break, that for me was a sign that, you know, they want the gold.

And the point being is that the world is resetting. Gold reset is a process, not an event, et cetera, et cetera. So when that happens, I habitually look for new correlations to either confirm or contradict that. So one of the correlations I found was gold with the 10-year yield in China. And to a lesser extent, gold with the yuan itself, the renminbi itself. And I’ve been looking for other correlations. And thankfully, Mike does this kind of work. Now, I may not agree with all his correlations, but they’re undiscovered. A lot of people don’t watch them, a lot of people don’t look at them.

And they may end up becoming very important. He looks at things like stocks versus gold, because let’s face it, Bloomberg has, you know, a majority of their business is stock-based. He looks at relationships and regressions to the mean analyses are very important to him. And I like to read his correlations, first of all, to see if I agree or disagree. And second of all, to see if there’s something in there, because he does do a lot of gold work that would make me put a trade on, right? I mean, a lot of his work ends up becoming actionable for my own work.

All right. So that’s the background on Mike and why I respect his work. Let’s go to the actual, some excerpts of his latest terminal report. All right. So for discussion, gold ETF outflows set to reverse in 2025, quoting, consensus is for gold to rise in 2025, but risks may be leaning toward a lot versus a little if ETFs are a guide. A top force for the metals rally to accelerate is if the US stock market and treasury yields decline and Bitcoin could lead the way. Four years of gold ETF outflows may be as bad as it gets.

Okay. Restating that in context of everything that we’ve been saying, and we’ve been reading for the last six months, for gold to continue at the torrid pace that it has been on or something close to it, the West has to get involved. And we saw a sample of that in Q3 and Q4 of this year, Q3 mostly, of this year where the ETF started to buy. It was, you know, the beginning of buy season, the election was coming up, but that has not followed through yet. Now, his perspective is on the year.

So on the year we had gold outflows from ETFs. And for good reason, you know, Bitcoin is, you know, Bitcoin is the new darling. And, you know, you know, once upon a time, gold was the darling. That was a big, big reason starting in, say, oh, I don’t know, maybe 2000 when gold started its bull market because ETFs made it available for Westerners to buy. Okay. The second aspect that’s important to this is he links Bitcoin kind of, you know, savelry to stocks, meaning you could say what you want if you’re a Bitcoin maxi, Bitcoin is a store value, yada, yada, yada.

But if you look at it, it just tracks tech stocks for the most part with assertions of its own independence from time to time. But that was because the, the, the ETF was about to be listed. So people were front running that now. So he’s linking Bitcoin to stocks, which he frequently does. He’s also linking gold to an inversion of stocks, which he frequently does. So after that’s the first sentence, right? The question he asks, he asks, that probably led him to all this work is a top question for 2025 is what might keep the U S stock market on a tear and interest rates relatively high for investors to continue shunning gold.

And by the way, he’s echoing, he’s, he’s really echoing hard net here, right? The higher rates go, the less likely people are to stay in stocks. The question is what will they put their money if they pull it out of stocks? Parton it says bonds, right? Mike is saying bonds too. And he’s also saying gold hard. It also says gold, but you know, the focus of this work here is, is, is gold as opposed to partner who thinks bonds will rally first. All right. So here’s some of the topics that the report goes through.

Gold ETF outflows may shift to inflows in 2025 are gold investors sniffing out peak SPX versus gold. By the way, speaking of sniffing, when a writer puts a question mark in a sentence as a topic, and the answer is the opposite of what you want it to be. If you’re a gold bull, then he’s doing it for clicks. Mike’s answer here is it looks like it’s possibly yes. It’s not a clickbait thing. Anyway, editorial side, global deflation, contagion risks and gold. I find this the most fascinating simply because as a student of China, China is going through a deflationary crisis, right? If that spreads, isn’t that bearish for gold? Isn’t deflation bearish for gold? Well, not in China, they’re buying gold because of their flight to safety.

And that’s the thing, you know, it’s not liquidity deflation, it’s risk deflation. People are putting their money in safer havens. All right. And we’ll touch on that as well. Bitcoin may have to go up versus gold in 2025 or else. He’s again, linking Bitcoin to stocks. And he’s saying, if stocks drop, you know, if what he thinks can happen does happen, stocks drop relative to gold, then this is the year that Bitcoin has to differentiate itself. That’s my take on what he’s saying. And if it doesn’t differentiate itself, then it just becomes another asset, which frankly, speaking to my Bitcoin maxi friends, that’s the goal of the ETF overall, to put a collar and a leash on Bitcoin and to make it just another asset.

And they will succeed for years before you get what you want to have happen, happen. Bad English. But the point is when you create a security on an asset, like when they created Futures for Gold, you allow it to be volatile, but you put a collar on it, a leash on it, and it can only go so far. And that’s what they’re doing with with Bitcoin. So Bitcoin is running out of time to differentiate itself. Certainly it has gotten more rain than over the last two years. All right. Next, the correlation between Dogecoin and Bitcoin divided by gold, kind of made up, but it kind of tracks really well.

It’s kind of scary, especially if you understand that Dogecoin is technologically, to some extent, has parallels with Bitcoin. The last one, the extreme juxtaposition to the SME 500 versus gold ratio bottom around 0.6 times versus a world bond yield premium near 160 basis. This is like his heavy stuff, right? This is his big correlation mapping. And I’ll just say this, US stocks are peaking relative to world stocks over the last 10, 15 years. So the bond world premium also shows that basically it’s the S&P 500 versus gold ratio. And you may look at different ratios, but that’s it.

I’m going to give you a little sample. Some of these gold ETF outflows may shift to inflows in 2025. You can read that. Next one, our gold investor is sniffing out peak SPX versus gold. And this is an interesting chart. Again, he sees correlations or he puts together correlations that I frankly do not, because he looks at equities a lot. A bottoming gold ETF holding from the high of about 12 years ago during basically Brexit appears consistent with some normalization in the SPX gold ratio toward its 20 year average of 1.8.

So again, regression to the mean, he thinks gold is going to perform better than stocks or at least relative to stocks. Next, global deflation, contagion risks in gold. Again, the one that I find most interesting, led by China, central banks are accumulating gold for a reason. Now, and a bit of downward reversion in SPX gold could fuel ETF investors adding tailwinds to the metal. In English, if stocks go down, ETF Western investors may say, oh shit, let’s put some money in gold. But the stuff that I’m interested in is this comment that led by China, central banks are accumulating gold for a reason.

And that’s interesting because China is accumulating gold to get out of dollars. Period. End of story. All the other reasons are derivative of that. Other central banks are accumulating gold for the same reason. And also because they smell, they think that down the road, gold will become necessary for international trade as the BRICS have made it clear that they want it to be. All right. But that reason is the opposite of deflation. You may not follow my logic there, but inflation is why you buy gold, not deflation. So it’s kind of interesting.

And I’m fascinated with this because it’s challenging my own logic. And this crash is bullish for gold. Let’s say China were to crash tomorrow. That’s bullish for gold, not bearish. Now I’ve been saying that a crash in China is ultimately bearish for gold because they’d have to liquidate to get dollars. You know what? They don’t need to liquidate to get dollars anymore. They’re selling treasuries. If they weren’t selling treasuries, they wouldn’t, they would need to liquidate in a crash. So if there’s a crash, they will liquidate gold for you on not necessarily dollars.

And that’s the weird thing. Anyway, I just think that’s worth more exploring. Bitcoin may have to go up versus gold in 2025 or else Alexander Hamilton, Dogecoin and Bitcoin, let me throw this chart up here. It doesn’t get that much bigger. But anyway, the chart basically is Bitcoin divided by gold, the Bitcoin to gold ratio, you can call it that, is it tracks Bitcoin. I mean, it tracks Dogecoin. So there you have it, something worth looking at. All right. Next. Oh, by the way, this weekend we’ll be talking about in our weekly report, we’re going to touch on Great Britain, which we haven’t talked about this week.

We’re going to touch on the tariffs and how they’re affecting silver as Bob Coleman has been all over as manifested the EFP and the mainstream media is now getting a taste for it. And I think they’re getting a taste for it, frankly, because it makes Trump look bad, not because they’re interested in their audience. All right. So this is what we have up today. Founders and big banks see lower than expected payrolls, special Trump’s new American empire unfolding miners, RBC, Hunt Brothers, Silver Legacy. That’s courtesy of Scottsdale Mint Thursday, P.M. That’s an aggregation of things and WGC comment and best 2025 macro Q&A.

That’s the founders post. Data on deck unemployment rate. It’s probably going to be out by the time you see this. And we have some more excerpts of Mike’s excellent work. Okay. Let’s take a look at. I want to take a look at oil. All right. There’s a daily chart for oil. Well, it’s pretty easy to me. You want to be short oil, you can be shorter, but above $70 in your dead meat. If you want to be long oil, you can be long it, probably with reckless abandon above this structure here. And that’s probably what’s happening now.

I think your macro discretionary has said, okay, we made money in gold. We made money in Bitcoin. And now let’s look at oil. And, you know, this line here at 73, 73, 70, that was my last line in the sand. I had a line down here that came in with these moving averages kind of in this area here. We broke love it. And why I had this line here, I don’t remember except that it’s coinciding with a lot of lows here. Anyway, oils off to the races. Maybe oil is going to be oil now.

All right. Gold. Right. There you go. The 50 day moving average does not matter. Let’s get rid of it. Let’s get rid of it. Where is that? There it is. All right. Here we are. We’re back to the 100 day moving average. You should assume now the 100 day moving average is kind of like a tether or an anchor and we touch it, we go up, we can touch it, reject it and go through it. But that’ll be bound by the 200 day moving average. We’re on a pace. We’re on a pace that just keep going high.

I mean, look at these moving averages paralleling. There’s no high volatility in there. Silver. Silver, I have a lot more interest in right now. I’m long silver and short gold and we just keep getting these wicks. It’s not getting above it. So I mean, you’re not so again, you’re not supposed to be long until we get above it. However, silver does things like this. You’re not supposed to be long until we get above it. Well, that’s if you’re trading US hours. If you’re trading global hours, it’ll come in above it. And the day it comes in above it based on China buying and based on the fact that Europe doesn’t have the bullets to sell it anymore because they’re fighting their own problems.

Well, that’s where you’re going to see a stronger dollar with higher silver. And we’re starting to see that now. Anyway, I’m Vince. Have a great day. Well, thank you as always for watching this morning’s markets and metals with Vince Lancy. I sure hope you enjoyed the show and enjoyed everything that you saw and heard here this week. And certainly as we are in exciting times in the financial markets, hopefully it’s been a helpful guide to help you along through that process. So go out, get set for a great weekend. And if you are actually looking for more gold and silver this weekend, I would like to remind you that if you remember a couple of weeks ago, I had on the show where he sure had some interesting comments.

As you can see here, how close the silver market came to actually breaking during the silver squeeze. And perhaps what was really the big takeaway to me is talk about how he thinks that is a matter of time. And certainly given his access with his involvement with the PSLV Sprottrust was a noteworthy thing to hear. And if you’d like to hear more from Rick did mention when he did that call that he’s hosting a gold investment bootcamp that is tomorrow, January 11th from 8am to 4pm Pacific time. And certainly if you are invested in gold and silver, Rick is quite well known in the industry, has a lot of experience, a lot of knowledge and bootcamp C hosts are really good.

So if you’re new to gold or even experienced and want to dig into good solid day of gold education and silver as well, well the link for the Rick Louisville investment bootcamp part one in the description field below. And with that said, I hope whatever you end up doing this weekend, you have a great time and I will look forward to seeing you again on Monday. Please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions and thanks for watching.

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