Vince Lanci: JP Morgans Report On Gold vs. Bitcoin | Arcadia Economics

➡ Vince Lanci discusses the financial market, focusing on the relationship between Bitcoin and gold. He debunks the idea that Bitcoin is taking over gold, explaining that while Bitcoin ETFs are on the rise, gold is still being bought physically, not through ETFs. He also mentions that the trend of selling gold for Bitcoin is not true, and that both are being bought by private investors. Lastly, he talks about the shift from the dollar to gold and silver as more reliable forms of money.

➡ Vince Lanci discusses how the silver and copper markets are currently influenced by China’s financial policies. If China strengthens or weakens its currency, the yuan, it affects the buying power and can lead to increased purchases of silver and copper. Despite this, Vince advises not to put too much emphasis on this trend. He also mentions a special offer on silver cougarands from Miles Franklin, a major mint in South Africa, and reminds viewers to consult with a financial advisor before making decisions.

Blue line with the steep upslope, that’s the bitcoin funds coming in. And that has obviously ramped up with the advent of the bitcoin ETFs and it’s concurrent with an outflow from the GLD ETF. And so people will look at the last six months and say, oh, people are selling gold for bitcoin. Welcome to the morning markets and metals with Vince Lancey. You where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day.

And now, here is Vince. Good morning. I’m Vince Lancey. And today’s market rundown is going to start right now. We’re going to talk about Morgan’s reality check on the bitcoin is killing gold meme. And we’ll look at some news headlines, including the Moscow tragedy. So let’s get going. All right, let’s look at the markets first. Right. Last night was kind of interesting. All right, the dollar is down eleven at 100 and 431.

Ten year yields are 423 up slightly. SP 500 is down 14. Handles at 50. 215. The VIX is 13 65 66. Gold is 21 71, up six. And change was up $10 last night and then went back down to unchanged. So we’ll talk about that in a second. Silver 24 71 up $0. 05. Copper is 398. Seven up 50. No, 35 basis points. Penny and a half. It was a lot stronger last night, I think.

Bitcoin is down 50 basis points at 66. 895. Ethereum is 34. 37, down 16 points. Platinum, palladium. Mixed energy is not mixed. I’m sorry. Both up ten. Eight up two and a half percent. That’s palladium. Right. Platinum 906, tracking it up 1. 58%. WTI is slightly higher. $0. 15 higher, 81 33. And natural gas is down two cent. Grains are mixed. Okay, let’s go. All right, bitcoin and gold.

There’s been a lot of talk, at least in the community that I hang out in, that the bitcoin ETFs are cannibalizing the GLD ETF, which may be true. It’s probably not. We’re going to demonstrate why it’s not now, but certainly for sure, bitcoin is not cannibalizing gold. That’s just ridiculous. But anyway, let’s read some excerpts and some comments from this very good Morgan report. Okay. The concern year to date combination of outflows from gold ETFs and a surge in bitcoin ETF inflows is raising questions about investors shifting from gold to bitcoin.

The reality, private investors and individuals have propagated both gold and bitcoin year to date, rather than shifting from the former to the latter comment. It’s really split along demographics. If you’re over 50, you’re buying gold and a little bit of bitcoin. If you’re under 40, you’re buying bitcoin and probably not very much gold anyway, JPMorgan said. This outflow trend does not this ETF outflow trend does not reflect an aversion to gold by private investors such as individuals and family offices, but rather an instrument shift away from physical gold ETFs to bars and coins.

See, physical gold etfs. Just say Etfs. They have to say that. All right, let’s look at a couple of charts that we marked up. Gold is being bought by retail central banks, physically, not ETFs. Take a look at that. That’s the outflow from ETFs and that’s the inflow from everything else. If you think about it, central banks are stackers and they’re starting to track what the grassroots has been doing for years.

There’s an observation for you. GLD liquidation trend has been ongoing for years. I think this is very telling. The blue line with the steep upslope, that’s the bitcoin funds coming in. And that has obviously ramped up with the advent of the bitcoin ETFs. And it’s concurrent with an outflow from the GLd ETF. And so people will look at the last six months and say, oh, people are selling gold for bitcoin.

No, that’s not true. The GLD ETF has been on a downslope since July of since August of 2020 with a dead cap bounce in probably June of 22. And look, the GLD outflow has been for four years now. There are other reasons for that, and we’ve discussed that. And that’s people coming out of the obvious one, people coming out of ETFs and going for physicality. So as the older and hopefully wiser of us know that if you don’t have it in your hand, it’s not yours.

The older and less wiser of us seemingly are buying bitcoin ETFs. So these people are not buying it for the reason that it should be bought bitcoin. That is, it’s going to be a disaster if it comes off. Okay, reading on our conclusions, private investors and individuals have propagated both gold and bitcoin year to date rather than shifting from the former to the latter. And ETFs are not the drivers of price anymore.

And therefore us buying is not the sole driver of price. Thus, gold and silver are being definancialized and becoming recognized for what they are, real money and physical collateral that can be trusted in international trade, whereas the dollar is increasingly less trustworthy. The fiat experiment may not be dead yet, but it is on life support. That full analysis is at the bottom. Let’s go to the news. It’s actually significant, right? I’m not going to read all this.

It’s a lot of stuff, and I put it at the bottom. But feds bostic said on Friday there is no silver bullet answer to why the economy is doing so well. But immigration and productivity are likely playing a role. Yes, but we’ve been noticing that for about a month now. US Senate passed a US dollar 1. 2 trillion government funding bill, which President Biden signed to avert a government shutdown, according to the White House.

The third one, Amgen, is among a crowded field of drug makers racing to develop the new blockbuster weight loss drug. But it’s taking an entirely different approach than its rivals. Stop. Right, okay. Look at the source of this story. And remember, they think you’re dumb. Okay. The Amgen story is the time release story. A drug is released by companies and it’s innovative, and then there are no more innovations in that drug.

So then they create a time release one. It’s just trying to keep you using it more. It’s no different than time release aspirin. You don’t have to take it three times a day. Take it once a day. Anyway, there’s no innovation here. There’s just coding that dissolves slower in an injection. Somehow, China has introduced new guidelines that will mean US microprocessors from intel and AMD are phased out of government PCs and servers as Beijing ramps up a campaign to replace foreign technology with homegrown solutions.

That’s a project called Delete A, as in delete America. It’s mercantilism, right? It’s a trade war. Okay? The world’s largest, most important financial market is growing by leaps and bounds. And there’s negative that goes along with that, but it’s basically about the debt default. Peter Thiel, Jeff Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg are leading a parade of corporate insiders who have sold hundreds of millions of dollars of their company shares this quarter.

Source? Yes, they’re billionaires, though. It’s not a lot of money for them. But you should take note that strength is being sold into by people that have pretty good feel for the markets. Data on deck today. Well, the new home sales are at 10:00 a. m. But I think there are several speakers I have that attached. Every speaker that comes out, just to give you a little perspective, every speaker that comes out this week is meaningless until Friday.

Okay, so any market move on a speaker’s words is a little bit of a revelation of how the market is leaning too far one way or the other. The speech that matters this week is Friday. Those are warm ups. Those are pulse taking speeches. There’s a lot going on in data this week. It’s Thursday and Friday, primarily that you care about. But everything obviously is important. There’s the premium report and we have some analysis from Michael Oliver, the always excellent Michael Oliver.

Oh, let’s talk about the charts. Let’s talk about gold and silver. If you’re looking for some guidance on how to perceive gold in the wake of this spike that we had, here’s a simple, broad place to start in a market that’s well balanced. After you have a spike like this, higher, you should in a matter of days have a similar spike lower. That means all the idiots that bought up here are selling down here, right? That’s the not sophisticated money.

If we don’t have one of those down here, like overextended, a higher overextended lower, well, then you know that there’s buying here still, right? It was buying here all last week. If we don’t have one of these, then there’s buying here still. And if there’s buying here still, then this is a market that has another leg higher. If on the other hand, you have a little bit of a penetration here and then back in, you know that this is home for now.

It’s not bearish or bullish, it just is. And the market’s waiting for the next piece of information. The bearish scenario, if it breaks this and persists for some period of time, I don’t know, use your technical indicators, then this is vulnerable to a sell off. Again below here. I don’t think there’s a lot of buying in here. I think there’s a lot of selling in here. So if it gets in here, I think there’s going to be some selling.

Silver is copper right now. Okay, it’s kind of goofy, but that’s how it is. And the reason I bring that up is because here we’ll just leave silver up. Let’s squish it up a little bit so you can see more. The silver market and the copper market are focusing on China for the moment. Now that may change on Friday, but the silver market and the copper market are focusing on China’s policies.

Are they going to weaken the yuan? Are they going to strengthen the UN? And it would seem that no matter what happens when there’s news out of China, these markets kind of pump up a little bit. If they’re strengthening yuan, well, then people are going to buy more silver and copper because there’s better buying power. If they’re going to weaken the yuan, then people buy more silver and copper because they’re worried about the basement.

So this is hot money in China right now. I wouldn’t put too much into it. I would just focus on this. We had a big outside day, and even though we know what happened there, they’re selling it because they need to buy gold. Just keep that in mind. Of course, we could run back up in here again. Believe it or not, this thing could run up higher again.

I’m not betting on it, but it’s just something to keep in mind. I’m Vince. That’s all for now. Have a good day. Thanks for watching this morning’s Markets and metals update with Vince Lancey. Brought to you each day by Miles Franklin. Precious metals for this week’s special is 2023, dated 1oz silver cougarands for only $3. 10 over spot. Cougarans come from one of the major sovereign mints in South Africa and are also IRA eligible.

Find out more about how precious metals IRA works or to get your cougar ants, call or email us at 833-26-4653 or arcadia@milesfranklin. com please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions. And thanks for watching. .

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