➡ The ongoing crisis is causing a significant shortage in oil, with 460 million barrels currently unaccounted for. This shortage could lead to a spike in prices for various fuels in the U.S. within the next few weeks. The situation is compared to the state of the world economy in 2011, which was 36% smaller than today. If the crisis continues, it could result in a major economic crash.
➡ The world’s demand for petroleum is increasing, but the supply, especially from the United States, is peaking. This could lead to a sudden and drastic increase in oil prices, which could negatively impact the economy. The situation is worsened by misleading information about the US being a net petroleum exporter, which is not entirely accurate as it includes substances like ethane, propane, and butane that are not used as fuel. This could lead to a major crisis if not addressed properly.
➡ The U.S. imports more oil than it exports, and if shale oil production decreases, this gap will grow. We’ve been exporting extra oil and fuel, but as these reserves decrease, prices will likely rise. We import heavier oil from the Middle East and Canada, which our refineries are designed to process, while our lighter shale oil is exported. If the oil supply from the Middle East is disrupted, the U.S. can’t quickly increase production or change refinery processes to compensate, leading to potential shortages and price increases.
➡ The article discusses the impact of shutting down oil fields and the difficulty of restarting them, leading to potential damage and reduced production. It also highlights the current situation where millions of barrels per day have been capped, affecting countries like Iraq, Kuwait, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and UAE. The article further explores the manipulation of financial markets and the disconnect between market narratives and reality, especially in relation to oil prices. Lastly, it mentions the looming crises related to missing LNG shipments and fertilizer shortages, and the potential repercussions on various industries.
➡ The U.S. is pulling out of Syria and moving into Jordan, which some believe could lead to a ground invasion. Meanwhile, inflation expectations have been rising, which could limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut rates. However, these expectations dropped significantly over three days, possibly due to market manipulation. There are also theories that the U.S. is trying to control global maritime choke points to wage a war on China, but this could backfire as it could lead to a trade war or actual war, both of which the U.S. is ill-prepared for.
➡ The article discusses the manipulation of market prices, particularly in the oil and energy sector, suggesting it has been happening for years. It also raises questions about recent attacks on Russian refineries and fertilizer plants, suggesting they may be part of a larger plan or a shadow war. The article also mentions a series of refinery fires in various countries, questioning if these are accidents, cyber attacks, or part of a larger agenda. Lastly, it discusses the potential social unrest due to rising living costs and the possibility of a global attack on energy and food.
➡ The text discusses the current political and social issues in Europe and Canada, where governments are struggling to address public grievances. It also talks about the importance of preparedness, highlighting the benefits of freeze-dried food for emergencies. The text further delves into the geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, discussing the complexities of their negotiations and the potential for escalation. Lastly, it criticizes the approach of certain diplomats in these negotiations, suggesting a lack of seriousness and respect.
➡ The speaker discusses the importance of being prepared for potential crises, such as conflicts with other countries or shortages of resources. They suggest investing in self-sustaining systems, like solar panels and electric cars, which can provide power in emergencies. They also warn about the possibility of China cutting off exports to the U.S., which could lead to shortages of goods. The speaker encourages people to stock up on essential items and to stay informed about global events.

Every day that this crisis goes on, we’re missing more oil that cannot be made up. 460 million barrels is now missing in action. That didn’t come out of the ground. We have maybe two, tops three more weeks before it just absolutely spikes prices in the United States for everything. Diesel, jet fuel, gasoline, you name it. The United States is and has been and always probably will be a net oil importer. But we did export extra oil this month out of inventories. Iran has been playing this extremely smart. Their job is to wait. Our job is to force them not to wait.

And I that means escalation at some point. We’ve had market rigging for a long time and I think they’re just dialing it up now. Hey, the S and P just hit an all time new high. The Dow’s at 50,000. All those missing tankers can’t be that big a deal. The longer you keep this manipulated, the further away from reality it gets. And what I think is about to happen is we’re going to have a date with reality. The last three shocks we had, which include 73, 81, 22, this is bigger than all of those combined. World War three is already happening.

This is a house of cars and it is in the process of collapsing right now. You’re going to see an economic crash the likes of which we’ve never seen. Hi, folks. Canadian prepper here, joined once again by the one and only Chris Martinson, founder of Peak Prosperity, an economic researcher and author focused on energy markets and systemic risk. He holds a PhD from Duke and an MBA from Cornell, and has spent years analyzing how oil and debt and geopolitics are shaping the global economy of the future. And today we’re going to be discussing oil prices, energy security and war.

Now, Chris, one of the reasons why I wanted to have you on is because there’s a disconnect between the biophysical reality of resource availability as it pertains to energy and this mass hallucination that is the future’s markets. And you have said that this is the largest energy crisis in history. And I’m hoping today that you can help my audience pierce through this veneer of this future scheme and understand the true gravity of the problem that we face. Well, it’s a big topic, but I think the simplest answer of this is that first we just, let’s make sure, let’s get one thing out of the way right.

An economy. When we say economy, we all care about the economy is where our jobs come from, our income. We like to buy things from it. An economy happens because work happens, right? Whether that’s goods or services, work happens. People get out of bed, they drive somewhere, they make something happen, stuff moves, right? So economy requires work. All work happens because of energy, full stop. There’s no way to perform work without energy. So we can just cancel the work out of this equation, say the economy. It’s energy. This is why I focus on this so much, because it’s just nat, it’s physics.

This is really important stuff. If you have energy, you can have prosperity, and if you don’t have energy, you can’t have prosperity. It’s that simple. So that’s why I focus on it so obsessively, as it were. And so let’s put this in frame right now. There’s thought to be somewhere between 9 and 13 million barrels per day missing from production. Probably should call it extraction, but you know, production in the Middle East. So let’s call it 10 million barrels a day that we’re now 46 days into this. So 460 million barrels is now missing in action.

That didn’t come out of the ground and we can’t make that up. Like that is now missing from the equation. They can open the straight up, open the shipping up and begin to open those fields back up because they had to shut them down. And when they do that, this 460 million missing barrels is still missing. So every day that this crisis goes on, we’re missing more oil that cannot be made up. Okay, well, why is that such a big deal? Let’s imagine it’s 10 million barrels per day missing. The world was producing of oil, just oil, about 86 million barrels a day before the war.

So we say, oh, now it’s 76. We draw a line back and we ask the question, when in world history was the world consuming not 86 but 76 million barrels of oil a day? And the answer is it was about 2011. The world economy was 36% smaller in 2011. So what we’re actually at risk here of is putting something close, a third or maybe more of the entire world economy is going to go through a supply shock, destruction. And we’ve already seen it in some places. It’s showing up right? Thai fishermen aren’t fishing and flights are being canceled and all, all that.

Every day this crisis goes on, it passes from being a problem which has solutions to being a predicament, which means it just has outcomes that we’re going to have to face and manage the best we can. That’s interesting. So you say that we’re kind of, right now we’re in the state that we were in 2011, and the less energy we have, the kind of, further we go back the, the evolutionary tree of sorts in terms of how, how our economy was once flourishing. And so 460 million missing barrels, 10 million missing per day. Yeah. In summary.

Yeah. How are we going to make that up if, let’s, let’s say things work out tomorrow and we found a peace deal making up that shortfall, what are the challenges in doing so? Well, the reason it hasn’t immediately teleported us back to 2011 is because I was mentioning the flows of oil, but then we had these stocks, inventories. So think of it like this. If you had a bank account, right, and $1,000 came into it, and you had 10,000 in there, and you were taking 1,000 out every day, everything’s cool. Suddenly the thousand stops going in.

Well, in 10 days, you have a problem. If it went from 1,000 back to what I’m saying is more like 750, it takes a little longer to notice. But the world is right now chewing into its reserves. Right. We have our Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the US Everybody has commercial reserves. That’s all starting to dwindle. But everybody sort of like side eyes that nervously until it gets to a certain level. And then you get into the next stage where nations start resource hoarding. Right now, the United States is actually dishoarding and sending our inventories, our precious inventories, to the rest of the world.

Trump’s all proud about it. He’s like, oh, look at all these tankers coming. Well, they’re coming to raid our inventories because we can’t produce more. That’s just how the business works. The flows are what they are. And if we’re going to sell more than we used to be selling, we’re going to be selling out of our inventories. And so I’ve predicted we have maybe two, tops, three more weeks of that before those get to a point where all of a sudden it just absolutely spikes prices in the United States for everything, diesel, jet fuel, gasoline products, you name it.

And at that point, Trump would also have to do what China’s already announced and what Russia’s already announced, which is they’ve already put a ban on exports of petroleum products at this point, because they’ve eyeballed their situation and said, no, this doesn’t make sense. And it doesn’t make sense to be exporting your inventories unless you’re confident that this thing’s going to be over in a week. And what I’m concerned about is the snapback. Once this is all done, if it gets done in the foreseeable future, people are going to want to have larger energy reserves. And so there’s going to be this period probably of several years where people are stockpiling oil countries that maybe didn’t even have a strategic oil reserve before, which will put increased demand on things.

Has that factored into your, your calculus at all? It has. And if we just take it at face value and say, look, 400 million barrels that the EIA said, well, sorry, IEA said, we’re going to, we’re going to authorize the release of 400 million barrels. They don’t, they can’t actually authorize anything. They’re just a consulting body out of Brussels. But they suggested, and a lot of countries agreed with that. So they’re going to draw down across the G7,400 million barrels. Let’s say that happens. Well, we go into the next year, they’re going to be drawing at least 1 million barrels a day to stock those up over the next year.

Right. So that’s extra demand in the future. The longer this goes on, the bigger the pothole in this story. And at some point it becomes an unfillable pothole. It just becomes too much to both run the economy with native demand growth, which has always been happening. You know, every year somebody comes out and says, oh, no, we were not. We don’t want oil. It’s this old thing we’ll all live in on electric cars, in sunshine. And it’s never true. The world always seems to consume more petroleum and petroleum products. And so either the future has to be less demand or we’re going to have to find some magic supplies.

This comes at the awkward moment when the United States shale fields are actually at peak. They’re there, that’s it. They’re peeking along. And they’re probably going to do that going forward, not instant. But we can’t be the swing producer. We can’t throw three more million barrels per day on. We can’t do that. Canada has some maneuvering room, I think, but we don’t. Can you talk a little bit about how the futures markets right now are setting the stage for a bigger disaster? Because if people think that the price of oil is lower than it actually is and they’re not changing their consumption habits, is that not setting us up for a huge disaster when this thing turns over? Yeah, that’s exactly.

That’s exactly the right way to put it. So this is very simply a supply shock. And the oldest, most fundamental chart in all of economics is called the PQ chart, where you have, you have demand, you have supply, and then the price is some sort of, is the point where those two lines intersect, right? So if you hold the price down, right? And so we’ve been doing this in the futures market. If you hold the price down, people don’t change their expectations. Demand stays where it is. So demand doesn’t get to meet supply. And then what happens is supplies just start getting run down.

Our inventories were drawing those down. But there comes a moment when all of a sudden the markets or the governments wake up and they say, oh, we can’t, we can’t, we can’t afford to do that anymore. And then you have this pretty violent price adjustment. I’m going to look at it as a 50 to 100% increase in the price of oil within two days, three days. It’ll be something like that. It’s never quite the destination that kills you. It’s the pace of change, you know, and that’s a shock to the system that’s going to cause things to happen that we can’t predict, we can’t understand.

Because you know you’re going to make a different decision at $10 per gallon gasoline than me, than the next guy, right? And what those decisions are, is unknowable. And so, but guaranteed, what it means is less stuff gets made, shipped, transported, bought, sold. That’s a huge hit. We all anticipated a major crisis was going to unfold in the Middle east at some point, but a lot of us thought that the markets would be more reflective of that reality. Did you anticipate that there would be such an ambiguous messaging scheme that the White House would utilize in order to mitigate the problem, which of course is making the problem worse.

But to do crowd control, I knew they were going to try it. I didn’t think they were going to be this successful. So you know what we saw under Covid, we saw this full spectrum messaging, right? The nudge units came out that said, well, we have to combat vaccine hesitancy. So multiple messages, different ways communicated. You don’t want to kill grandma. You wouldn’t want to get your kids sick. Think how terrible you’d feel if you were kicked out of the cool kids science club. You know, ostracization. They tried all these things, but they hit us every which way with the messaging.

And so I think we’re getting the same hitting right now. Yesterday, axios put out 60 headlines that either had ceasefire or deal in it. Just constant. Just constant. Right. We’re seeing weird behaviors in all the markets. So the stock market is now up 12 days in a row. If it’s still green, I haven’t checked it before I got on here, but as of yesterday, 11 days green. That move puts it in the 99.7 percentile of all moves in all of the history of the US Stock market. It’s not just like sort of a billion. It only has 0.3% of all of history was actually more extreme than that.

And those were eras where we were coming out of actual wars. World War II’s ending, big things happen. So, again, what’s the backdrop for that? Is the Strait still closed? You betcha. You know, if I could throw this up real quick. Let me see. This is the reality. I track this like a hawk right now. So here we’re looking at total. This is Shadow fleet plus compliant tankers coming out of the Strait of Hormuz. This is in. This is ton weight. Ton weight is dreadweight. 7. 8 million. That’s what it should be. Coming through there. Look where we are.

Like a half a million. And I can’t tell you what’s missing in there. It’s. It’s. It’s everything from sulfur to urea to aluminum. It’s not just oil. It’s also liquefied natural gas. It’s helium. It’s so much. It’s. Nate. It’s so many things. It’s. And it’s also cargo for those nations that feed their populations. Yeah. Like, it’s. In order for those Gulf states to function, they need imports. Of course they do. They’re completely dependent mostly on food imports, of course. And of course, you have to maintain your desalination plants. And, you know, listen, the Gulf States make petrochemicals and related products, and they ship those out, and then everything else comes in.

All their food, their consumer goods, repair parts, everything. They’re entirely dependent on that straight being open. So this chart alone, I mean. No, that’s a huge, huge hole in all kinds of things. And we just found out yesterday that. Yeah, no, I was just gonna say, you know, that that’s additive to what’s going on in Russian Ukraine, where every day another refinery is going up in smoke. But go ahead. Well, not just there. Don’t forget Mexico and Australia. Refineries are turning out to be kind of exploding all of a sudden, you know. Yeah, I hope to get your thoughts on that in just a Moment.

Sorry to cut you off there. I just wanted to. Yeah, cut me off whenever. I know you recently did a presentation on which kind of shed some light on US Oil exports because we’re being told that the US Is a net petroleum exporter. And I, I want you to help my audience distinguish between terms like hydrocarbons and oil and petroleum exports to better understand what is actually being exported and what is being imported. Because we’re being told right now that we got abundant oil and we’re just, you know, we’re making it rain oil around the world and everything will be fine.

But can you maybe break that down a little bit and give us the. The condensed version of your. Your video that you just released on your YouTube channel a couple days ago? Yeah, it’s really important. I mean, it sounds wonkish and there’s nuance and all that, but it’s actually really important to understand this because again, as with COVID we’re being marketed a certain point of view. And the eia, really, shame on them for doing this. But they started really blurring and blending stuff about eight years ago, and they got better and better at it. Until now they just report this thing.

We’re a net petroleum exporter. But their term of petroleum is not the same as your mind. Petroleum used to be synonymous with oil when I was growing up. That’s what. If you could say petroleum or oil. But it meant the same thing, right? And now to the. To our energy Information Agency, which releases this stuff. Petroleum is everything from oil to this little tiny two carbon molecule thing called ethane, right? So we get a lot of this stuff with ethane, which is two carbons, propane, which is three. I use a lot of propane. Anybody who’s got a propane grill knows what propane is.

Butane, if you’ve had a lighter, you know what butane is. So they take those things plus what’s called pentane, which is gasoline, and they throw all of these things together and say, oh, it’s petroleum, but it’s not ethane. Not a single molecule of ethane goes into a fuel tank, moves anything from A to B, it’s put into industrial processes, it becomes plastic. Right? Polyvinyl ester, ethane. Right. So that’s the stuff. PvE, all that stuff. And the truth is the United States is swimming in that stuff. Like 10 million barrels a day of that stuff comes out because we have all these wet gas plays and places like Utica Shale in Ohio and the Marcellus has some wet spots.

So when you’re pulling out natural gas, you get some methane, propane, butane, but make no mistake, that’s not oil. Oil is this magic substance. You put it into a refinery and it goes into this refining tower and they pull all these different products off. Which includes the most important components actually are kerosene, which is jet fuel, diesel, something called bunker fuel or fuel oil, which operates ships. Those are the three components that actually run our economy. Those are the things you do not load up a giant 400 yard mining truck with ethane or butane or anything else, Right.

So they mushed it all into one spot. And it would be kind of like if I said, hey, good news, I have 30,000 calories of food stored in my kitchen. It’s just half of that’s in batteries in my kitchen drawer. But I can convert them into, you know, calories if I have to because it’ll do calories of work. But it’s not the same, right. I can’t, I can’t ingest batteries, right. So that’s been the problem. Here’s the deal. United States is and has been and always probably will be a net oil importer. So we net basis about 2 million barrels a day now.

And if the shale or if, or when the shale patches roll over, that number will just climb going into the future. So we don’t have extra oil to import. What we did export extra oil this month out of inventories. And so as those inventories get drawn down, sooner or later, you can’t go any further than that. But we also have been exporting extra diesel and jet fuel and those inventories are getting drawn down. And when this, this is very simple. If you have too much oil, the oil or its products, let’s say it’s jet fuel, you’ve just refined it, where’s it go? Goes through a pipe.

Where’s that go? Goes into a big tank when the tank gets full. If you have too much inventory now, prices drop so that more demand will come in, take it off of your hands because you can’t. What are you going to do with it? And conversely, when inventories start to drop, right now, all of a sudden prices get bid up because there’s not as much around. And that’s just how markets function. So as we sell in the United States our diesel or jet fuel off to the rest of the world, our inventories are being drawn down.

We just saw that in the inventory report yesterday, which means sooner or later our prices are going to go up here for those things. It’s just how markets work. Contrary to popular belief in the apocalypse, most people aren’t going to die by the hands of marauders. In fact, you’re probably going to die from this disease. This is why you need antibiotics. The problem is getting them requires a prescription. Well, today’s sponsor is Jace Medical. They’ve created a revolutionary service that allows you to get prescription medications like antibiotics with relative ease, hassle free. This will be worth more than gold in an emergency for somebody who needs them.

So do yourself a favor and take your prepping to the next level level while you still can. Check out the link in the description below. And now back to the video. So you’re importing light crude also from the Middle east to dilute for the refineries, is that correct? How much comes from the. How much US oil relies on Middle Eastern oil? Well, we, we actually import about 6.6 million barrels a day, but we export about 4 million barrels a day. That stuff we’re exporting is mainly shale oil. It’s too light. It’s really light. It’s too light.

It’s fun, you know, it’s clean, it’s sweet. It doesn’t have a lot of sulfur in it. But that’s not what our refineries are tuned on. We like this medium and heavier grade stuff. Now we get a lot of that from Canada, I think I forget how many. Probably three ish, three and a half million barrels a day from Canada because of the bitumen that comes out of the oil sands or tar sands depending on who’s telling you the story. And that stuff’s really heavy. And so we do take that and mix that with some of our shale oil to make it into a medium ish grade so that you can put that into the refineries and that works.

But we really like this medium stuff that comes in particular the grades that come out of Iran in particular also Iraq. Really highly sought after, perfect middle of the road, not a lot of contaminants. You can put it in your system, you get great products. And the thing though that we have to understand, it’s important the detail matters. These are 150-year-old supply chain systems. So any one refinery, look at that complicated mass of pipes and flares and stuff. Say in Louisiana, they’re tuned for a specific grade of crude, comes in and out the back end. They may have 2,000 separate customers.

Olefins, resins, asphalt. Like there’s so many different products that come out the back end of that thing. And each one of those is supply chain, each One of those. So if they suddenly said, oh, we’ll just start running on shale oil and put that in, they’re going to have to call up hundreds of customers and say, we don’t have asphalt anymore. And you can’t get this wax from us. Right. It’s a very finely tuned, very complicated, if not complex, supply chain system that requires oil to come out of the ground, go into the refinery, get distributed, and mostly it gets set on fire, you know, on the back end.

So to make a long story short, the US Is in no position to replace or even sufficiently supplement the shortfall of oil from the Strait of Hormuz closure. No, no, there’s. Because Saudi Arabia has kept that east west pipeline open I told you about. There’s 10 to 13 million barrels a day shut in, in production. That’s one story. But then there’s also what they’re able to draw down from existing inventories. And also Saudi Arabia has kept functioning, so. So they have a bunch coming out on the other side of that. But even with that, we’re missing somewhere between 8 and 9 million barrels a day of exported crude out of the Strait.

The United States at most could ramp up an extra million barrels per day from its average of four, get up to maybe five, five and a half somewhere in that zone. So we can’t replace the 8. There’s not a chance. It’s just a logistics problem. Like what does it mean to export oil? Well, this big ship pulls up to a berth and you start putting these pipes into it. And it takes time. You know, you don’t instantly put 2 million barrels into a giant thing. It just, there’s a flow rate. So there’s only so much max loading capacity across all of our ports.

And I think even optimized, I think the number I heard can’t verify. But somebody I trust said probably six would be the top. But that would be if we were just like, we’re just like firing all cylinders. So we were already exporting four. So even if we dialed that to six, we’ve replaced two out of a missing nine. And can you explain the science of capping wells and why after a certain point, if you lack the storage or place to put this stuff, you have to cap the well. And why is it so hard to restart that process? And how long would it typically take? Can you walk us through that process? Sure, yeah.

It takes a long time. It depends on the field and there’s a lot of complexity. And forgive me, I’m going to simplify greatly here because Each geology slightly different, but almost all the fields we’re talking about in the Middle east, in particular, the ones in Iraq and the ones in Iran, they’re very complex fields. They’ve been running for a very long time. So a lot of people think, you know, oil out of the ground. They think like, there’s a lake down there and you just stick a straw and you just pump it out. If you got down there and you took a piece of rock out from where this oil is being, you know, just sort of floating around.

It’s solid rock. It’s like, it’s oily feeling, but it’s feels to you and me, it would feel like. Like a brick, you know, would be an example. It’s just got some crevices in it, but it’s. It’s a rock. So there’s all these ways that this oil is. First it’s under pressure and great. And it’s all like squeezing out by itself, you know, spindle top, oil shooting out. But as soon as a field’s getting a little bit mature now, you have to start doing this complicated thing where you have all these injection wells at the edge of the field and you start squeezing water in very carefully.

And there are geologists looking at this daily, monitoring pressure well, all this stuff, because if one well starts to over pressure or hits a fault line and starts shooting, it could cut off your field. So they’re managing the squeezing process really, really carefully as they’re trying to get this together. And I don’t know if I have a good metaphor for it, but imagine if you had like, you know, a giant garbage bag and there’s water in it, and you and your friends are trying to get all that water to go to this one little spot in the center, right? You can imagine, like, if you do it wrong, oops, it’s going to squirt out.

This, this wrinkle you hadn’t quite got covered. So when you shut a well down, you stop that process. You have to stop everything. You can’t keep the pressure going, so you just shut everything down. And what happens then? It gives it an opportunity to begin to sort of settle out and, you know, escape and go in different places. So it’s very typical that when you shut a field in and you reopen it, it doesn’t produce like it used to. It happens quite frequently because it’s a whole system in process that’s squeezing and moving. But you and your friends get off the trash bag and say, okay, well, whatever.

The water is going to go back to where it wants to go. And when you try and restart that process, it’s just the rule of thumb is it just doesn’t ever quite come all the way back. Hopefully it does, but usually there’s some kind of damage that happens. So what they’ll try to do is maximize the floating storage then, I presume, and try to fill as many tankers as they can. There’s a lot of looking at the Marine Tracker a lot lately, and it seems like there’s a lot of idle tankers on the water. But like, what you’re saying is that there’s a certain flow rate bottleneck that they can only fill so many of these ships, so eventually they’re going to have to cap some wells.

And when that happens, that’s a perfect metaphor. I got to say that, that really, you know, my mind is blown by that information. So eventually, are we there yet in terms of them having to cap these wells, do you think, or is that going to take a while? They’ve already shut in. Yeah, it’s already happened. Iraq had to completely shut in three and a half million barrels a day. Kuwait had to shut in two. Last I heard, if we stop the flows from Iran, they’ll have to shut in another four or five. Some has been shut in in Saudi Arabia.

UAE had to shut some in. All told, you added up, it’s about 8 or 9 million barrels a day has been already capped. It’s been shut. Those fields are shut down at this point. Wow. So what if, what if it was nine and they turn it back on and they only get it back to 8? Like now that this is like a, you know, we’ll, we’ll have to wait and see on that. But I’m, we’re gonna all watch carefully. I think a couple weeks ago I heard you say that you felt as though there were parallels here between the early days of, of COVID and what we’re seeing right now in terms of, I don’t know, maybe it’s the normalcy bias, people just ignoring the, the problem.

Can you maybe elaborate a little bit on what you meant by that? And are you, do you still feel like we’re there in those early days of COVID Is that parallel still top of mind for you? Yeah, and it’s, it’s because I, I focus a lot on, on the markets, you know, and I’m putting holding up my air quote signs here because they’re not really markets anymore. But, but our markets, our financial markets are actually something that the United States may not Care a lot about its poor or its middle class or Palestinians, but it cares a lot about its financial markets.

And so they spent a lot of time on that, pumping it up and using it as sort of a narrative machine. And the narrative machine works like this. Hey, things can’t be that bad because The Dow’s at 50,000. Like why are we worried about Epstein files? Do you see the 50,000? Like, hey, the S and P just hit an all time new high. All those missing tankers can’t be that big a deal because the stock market is forward looking and it would have sniffed that out, right? It’s a reinforcement machine that says we’re doing good things and the market approves of our actions at the top level.

And it’s been used that way for a long time. Problem. The longer you keep this manipulated, the further away from reality it gets. And what I think is about to happen is we’re going to have a date with reality. So narratives are good, but you kind of count on your narrative function to stay in place long enough that reality catches up to it eventually. This is going to be the opposite thing because Covid was a human construct, right? It’s human derived. Wasn’t really actually a really dread disease. Everything that happened could have been undone by human fiat.

We could have just decided, okay, travel again and all that great financial crisis. Yeah, it was pretty bad. How those credit default swaps blew up and banks got all human contrived, right? All abstractions. It could again be papered over. This is different. And that’s why I think we’re having some struggle sessions right now trying to get people’s heads around what’s happening. Because as I mentioned, the petroleum, the oil alone is as big as all the last three shocks we had, which includes 73, 81, 22. Right. 2022 was a pretty big shock year. This is bigger than all of those combined.

We’re also missing 20% of world LNG shipments. This is extraordinary because LNG is used primarily coming out of the Gulf, used in Asia to run their power plants, run their factories, run all that helium. We can’t, okay, Russia’s preserving its helium. They’re the number two producer. Number one was Qatar. Now how are we going to make chips and how are we going to make fiber optics? How are we going to make all kinds of things like that’s also a brewing kind of an issue. Fertilizer, right? Big fertilizer shortages all over the world. This is going to be.

That too is a crisis. So this is such a Magnificent poly crisis that it’s astonishing to me that they’ve had the ability to just say, but the stock market’s at all time highs. But more people are asking questions. I’ve been a big bear on how markets function for a long time. I think I understand the mechanisms. It’s all computer trading. Computers operate according to predictable algorithms. If you can snuff out what the algorithms are looking for, I think it’s child’s play, relatively speaking, for somebody with a printing press to make the markets do what they need them to do.

And they’ve done that with silver, with gold, with all kinds of things. But oil is different. This is going to actually create a system where you can already feel reality and their narrative drifting apart. And more and more people are noting that I’m seeing people. It usually used to be bad form in the financial space to suggest that markets were manipulated. More and more people are starting to say, well, that’s the simplest, best explanation for this now, isn’t it? And of course it is. Right. And the thing that I think you’re catching on to, which I hope everybody catches onto, is that these things can drift apart for a while, but if reality wins, that snapback is going to be pretty vicious.

Well, it seems like the crisis we’re facing, like you’re saying, is an order of magnitude more serious than all of the aforementioned, whether it was 70s or the great Recession. Yet the artifice that they’ve created and the mechanisms that they have to control the narrative are so much more sophisticated and elaborate that it allows this thing to go a lot further than it ought to. And it’s incredible when you look at oil prices in real terms. I mean, even what they were in, in 2008 or the 2022 Russia, Ukraine war crisis, I mean, the, the oil prices are low, you know, comparatively, just in real terms, but much lower nominally.

Obviously, we’re catching up a little bit. But, you know, it’s just, it’s truly remarkable to see this unfolding and you know, a lot of the, the Cassandras are having their day in the sun right now. I know, I am trying to, you know, but at the same time it’s kind of like, well, hey, I mean, if you’re aware of these things, you can, you can capitalize in a lot of ways. You just have to have that patience because that, that old saying, you know, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent is really pertinent here.

And it’s, it’s remaining irrational for a long, long time. It seems it’s, it’s a marathon runner. Well, I just put this out for my subscribers today. And my metaphor for what we’re seeing, because I’ve been watching the markets for a long time is, you know, if a plane, it’s landing gear can’t lower and it’s going to land, do an emergency landing, they foam the Runway, right? And foaming the Runway means, you know, there’s some sort of an accident coming, but you’re going to do your best to minimize the damage. So I’ve watched this happen over and over again, Nate, where the Federal Reserve is going to, they pre telegraph they’re going to have to raise interest rates.

But oh no, stocks might sell off and gold might do this and things might. So you watch the opposite of those things happen right up to the announcement. Then they make the announcement and then, oh, the stocks, you know, correct back, but kind of where they started from, they’ve been foaming the Runway for decisions and policy points for, for years. I was just. It’s one of the most reliable things I’ve seen. So what did we just find out? We found out that the United States, I think just this morning I saw something. They’re pulling out of Syria, right? Yeah.

How long we’ve been there? Decade two. I forget now it’s been so long. And they’re pulling into Jordan, right? That just sounds like ground invasion to me. And everybody’s noticed this thing, right? You got weekend Trump, he’s mean as a lion. And then you got Monday morning pre market Trump, he’s a pussycat. Right? So ditch, been doing this market manipulation over and over again, right? Like give your bad news on Friday but correct it before markets open on Monday. All right, so through this whole time what’s been happening is that inflation expectations have been rising and this is a big deal because this, this binds what the Fed can do.

If inflation expectations are high enough, they can’t cut rates. Trump wants them to cut rates. So inflation expectations were rising all through January, all through February anyway, March, as you might imagine, put that stuff on rocket fuel. And this is tracked in the bond market in something called the one year break even, which is how much interest would I have to earn on a bond to break even given inflation for the next year. So it’s kind of a forward looking expectation of the market. How bad is inflation going to be for the next year? Let me show you this chart.

This is astonishing. Yeah, so here it is. It was hovering around 5.25% and then in one, two, three days it lost 200 basis.2%. Inflation expectations over three days went from five and a quarter percent to three and a half percent. This is astonishing. Like what happened over those three days for the bond market to go, you know, I’m going to shave 200 basis points, two full percent off my expectations. This is paving the Runway. Somebody big deep pocketed stepped in and drove that down so that if there is a ground invasion this weekend, next weekend, and oh no, the markets freak out, it has to climb out of that hole like all the way to get, just to get back to five and a quarter percent.

Right. So we’ve seen this with stocks being driven to new highs, inflation expectations being driven down on the Kelsey market right now. Go figure. Recession expectations are plunging, you know, right now. So these are all things that I put into a framework where I go, okay, somebody, this is how I actually, when I do my predictive stuff for my, for my subscribers, I say this is how I think. I know a ground invasion is coming as the next order of business because we’re foaming the Runway. And this is just how we operate because the one thing we care about for sure is our financial markets.

Yeah, foaming the Runway is a great metaphor. And I mean that they did that with the price of oil before all this started. They tried to bring it down as much as they could in anticipation that, you know, this crisis was going to happen. And yeah, I don’t see how inflation stays low, especially when one of the primary drivers is high oil prices. I mean, how long can they keep that, that scam going is, is a question. Now it seems as though the US is benefiting from this in a lot of ways too. And people are floating various theories about how the US is waging a war on China by trying to control all the primary choke points, the maritime choke points in the world.

When you step back and you look at Nord stream exploding and the attacks on Russian oil refineries, the Venezuela play, the Panama Canal, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz which is now being blockaded by the United States and maybe the Babel Mendeb will be thrown in there for good measure. And now the deal that they just struck with the Malaysians which brings them closer to the Strait of Malacca. And then of course there’s the Taiwan Strait. It starts to look like maybe they want to create a crisis in the Middle East. I don’t know. Have you, if you had any thoughts about that, I mean, it seems it would be counter to this theory that they’re trying to, you know, keep things under control while maybe they’re trying to play both sides of the table.

I don’t know. You know, it is a confusing arrangement. So, you know, if we looking at this as a cube, let’s rotate the face a minute. And so let’s get this one out of the way. If people ask me if I think the war is going to end soon with a peace deal, I say no because Israel will make sure that doesn’t happen. Right? So that’s one face of the cube I can understand that Israel has no interest in the United States backing away from, you know, being on the hook for dealing with Iran, because that’s what Israel wants.

And so they will do. They’ve broken every ceasefire, every negotiation. Anytime it feels like things are backing off a little bit, they’ve been there to sort of escalate the situation. So I think that’s part one, part two. Are we trying to like you know, corner China and you know, haha, we’ve taken your energy away. If we are, it’s probably one of the stupidest policies I’ve ever heard of because China actually manufacturers critical things for the United States. So if we said, haha, you’re going to have to buy oil from us even though we don’t have it and we’re in control of the situation now, you have to pay tolls to us.

China just says, well, okay, okay, it’s going to hurt a little, but we’ll just suspend trade with you. In which case our economy in the United States falls apart within a year. I mean badly, because it’s just not a question of, oh, we’ll make it now. We can’t make what China makes. They have supply chains and cornered so many critical markets. We’ve all heard about the rare earths, but it goes way beyond that. It’s titanium, it’s chipsets, it’s missile components, it’s electronics. It’s so many things you need like this uber like 5000 pixel chart with skinny lines on it to just begin to figure out how dependent we are on our imports from China.

So they could conduct a trade war anytime they want. Second, if it goes kinetic, the United States has already lost the war with China because all wars fundamentally are logistics and manufacturing. They have plants that can make a single plant that can make a thousand missiles a week. I’ve heard, and they’ve put videos out about that. I haven’t visited them myself. But at any rate, let’s be very clear. China can outmanufacture us. That’s why The United States did so well in World War II. We were contained, nobody was bombing us, and we could out manufacture the enemy.

That’s how you win wars. I get it. Good generals, brave soldiers, that’s, that’s the story, but it’s actually a story of logistics. Yeah. And so we, we don’t, we really don’t want to get in either a trade war or a shooting war with China. So if we’re trying to choke them on the energy front and think we’re just going to like, be able to do that because we’re exceptional, I think that’s one of the biggest mistakes you could ever make. And so now I’m going to rotate the cube to one other face and this is a big one because I don’t have an answer.

Is everything that’s happening out of just hubris, pride, arrogance and ignorance, or is Trump part of a team that’s actively trying to wreck my country? And I can’t distinguish between those two very clearly. Well, there’s clearly makes it tricky, corporate interests. I mean, if I’m in one of the oil barons right now, I’m not going to argue with, you know, closing the Straight if I’m selling my oil from the United States. You know, there’s pro, there’s got to be, you know, interests there that are happy about the closure of the Straight and will actively lobby for more of what they’re seeing.

And even a lot of people in the tar sands here in Canada are excited because, you know, they’re, they’re starting to, to plan future projects and jobs are coming back. Right. So there’s vested interests here that are perhaps going to backfire in the long run, but in the short term, you know, everybody’s having a good time at the, at the party. Enjoy the party while it lasts. Because as I said, if we, if we suddenly dial ourselves back to 2011 economy and we end up destroying the Asian economies and they don’t push back, they don’t fight, they don’t trade war us, they don’t dump our bonds suddenly.

They don’t, they don’t, they don’t. That’s the best possible outcome. We’re not going to like that world either because a huge proportion of our supply chains just suddenly get clobbered. So the obvious thing that would be oil obviously should have been higher in price for a couple of years. I actually think that oil prices have been manipulated down. It’s not like they just suddenly dusted off this program and started doing it a month ago. I think they’ve been doing it for a few years and they found out they could do it because the same behaviors I saw in the futures market in Silver 2:30 in the morning, there’s very thin trading and suddenly this giant crushing stack of sell orders at market just comes in and just like, you know, floors the price.

I watched that same thing happen in oil for the past two years. And like that’s weird. Like who would sell 3 million barrels of oil in a one minute tick? Not somebody who’s trying to get the best price, it’s somebody who’s trying to get a different price. And that’s the difference between an active market and a rigged market. So we’ve had market rigging for a long time and I think they’re just dialing it up now at this particular moment in time. But what’s the end goal? It’s kind of weird that, you know, March 2nd is when Ukraine really started to attack Russian refineries and also fertilizer plants.

Yeah, they’re not doing that on their own. When I see Ukraine did that put some air quotes around that? Because obviously they’re doing that with our help, with NATO’s help, with the United States help, CIA help. Targeting satellite, you know, you don’t just fly drones to a thing. You have to skirt the satellites and the ground, you know, arrays which, which change daily so that targeting information and flight patterns being supplied by somebody, you know. So who suddenly decided it would be a good idea. Just to add to that, the Russians are now claiming that the Baltic States airspace is being exploited towards that end.

And they recently passed a bill that allows them to effectively go into a country where they believe that, you know, the ethnic Russian population is being suppressed. Now NAFO is saying that this is setting the groundwork for a potential intervention into these Baltic states like Estonia and Latvia, where the Russians are claiming these drones are, you know, skirting the, the air defense systems. But yeah, I hadn’t heard that yet, but yeah, that probably makes sense to seem like, like there is this, this coordinated attack on global energy and not just energy, fertilizer, Fertilizer as well. Because we just seen in Australia yesterday, apparently some glitch had caused another major fertilizer plant there to go down in addition to the oil refinery that went down.

So are these glitches, are these actual cyber attacks? Like is there a shadow war we don’t know about or is this a coordinated agenda? Klaus Schwabian WEF 2030 thing where we, you know, own nothing and, and be miserable? Well, you know, refineries are kind of tricky things and sometimes they do catch fire. It’s happened before. But in the United States we had a Valero plant. Out in California, we’ve had the, the, the Port Arthur plant that just went up and now we have the Mexican plant that just went up and now we’ve got the Australian plant that went up, plus all the things happening in Russia.

Plus, plus, plus so who’s doing it? You speculate. I mean it could be anything from, oh, these are your so called sleeper cells activated, you know, so it’s war by another means, or it could be a cyber attack. You know, it wouldn’t be hard. Like if you could get into the control systems of a refinery and shut the right sequence of valves off. At the wrong moment, they blow up. So it could be that or it could be part of this other larger plan, which here’s, here’s why I think it could be part of the larger plan, the United States.

Scott Bessant comes out like days into the war. We’re doing everything we can to keep oil prices down. Well, then you probably ought to be calling your Ukrainian friends up and say, could you stop bombing the Russian stuff right now? Because that’s not helping. And we didn’t do that. We just sort of, we didn’t do that at all. Yeah, and those, those attacks have been ongoing and sustained. So clearly we’re not doing everything we can to keep oil prices down. So it’s starting to feel like a worldwide attack on energy and food. Like, so who, who, that’s the, that’s the Kibono.

Like, who wants that? Right? Well, that’s the stuff the WF people have been talking about forever. You know, and you know, as a scientist and a statistician, in a way, you obviously have to look at what are the, the baseline incident of these type of events. Like, is there a lot of oil refinery fires? Is what we’re seeing above the norm or is it just confirmation bias? I haven’t run those numbers yet, but it’s certainly within a span of time. It’s kind of weird that we had Australia, Mexico and us. Those came clustered within about a week of each other, a week and a half.

So that’s, that’s, yeah, they happened. I do track refinery fires when they happen. I’m not aware of a cluster like that. You know, one of my favorite sayings is once is an accident, twice is coincidence, but three times is enemy action. So we’ve had three. And now my antennae are quivering and I’m going to keep A sharp eye out. You know, going forward, if any more happen, I’m, I’m pretty, I’m going to pretty severely throw down on the side of like, oh, this is, this is a part of a plan. What you said about the US permitting these strikes, permitting Ukraine, and not just permitting, but not, you know, publicly denouncing it at all, is, speaks volumes with respect to what may be going on here.

And I mean, these refineries going up, it could just be the result, I guess if we’re, if we’re trying to use mental gymnastics. It could just be the result of like the collective degradation of, of systems as a result of, you know, just western deterioration in general. But yeah, it does seem very suspicious, you know, that all these things are happening and we should expect that if we’re targeting their oil refineries that they’ll find ways to do it over here. And I guess the question is, would we want to admit it if it was happening to us? Because would that trigger a public panic? I don’t think we would admit it if it was actually enemy action of some sort.

We wouldn’t. That would not be in our standard operating procedure for sure. You know, it is always possible. Remember, during COVID we heard the same thing. Remember, there was this whole rash when food production and storage facilities started catching on fire during COVID remember? And all of a sudden we discovered that chickens are exploding and so is lettuce. And like, it was like everything. There was this whole rash and then they died down for a while. I kept tracking them. I have a little tracker on my, on my newsfeed. I’m like, tell me when that happens.

The other rash of things we have right now happening, which is for sure partly enemy action, is warehouses are catching on fire all over the US at this point. So we had the, the one where the toilet paper Scott bounty. I forget what they had there, but you know, paper products. That guy lit it up and said, you’re not paying us a living wage. That one burned to the ground. But there have been a number of other ones, and so they seem to come in clusters. And again, that could be an attention confirmation bias thing, but I’m pretty sure we had a lull there where that in itself is a knock on effect.

I mean, the disgruntled employee who’s not getting paid enough is a knock on effect of all of this, of that economic contraction. Right? So you know that, that will see more of that. People are just scraping by to make ends meet before this crisis. I mean, imagine the, the New movement that will emerge after this is over when the cost of living crisis gets that much worse. And if it’s a movement they can’t control, like the, you know, co opted no kings or whatever it is, you know, that’s when things really get out of control. Well, I think we’re seeing early signs of this.

So Europe tends to be more restive than the U.S. we have some sort of, I considered most of those no kings, those were paid for astroturf operations for the most part. But in Europe the French farmers routinely organically come together and get a little restive on the whole thing. But watching what’s happening in the UK spread to Scotland, possibly spreading to the UK now more broadly into England is pretty interesting because nominally it was, you know, fuel prices that was the last straw. Fuel prices got too high. But soon as the court came out of that bottle, they had a whole host of grievances, including the refugees and how the people have been treated and overall taxes and Ireland’s really bad.

Like the government is just super progressive, you know, and really very draconian. And, and the Irish people pay a lot in taxes and they get the least back out of anybody in the entire European Union. So that sort of creates that pressure vessel that now seems to have erupted, you know, and you watch the first instinct of the government. Same thing just happened in Canada, right? Oh, we’re going to have to like, just like freeze the accounts of the truckers. Like these are people with legitimate grievances in ostensibly a free and open democratic country who the minute they try and express a grievance are, they break out, frankly illegal and totally immoral sort of weapons to crush them rather than just sit down and say, well what can we talk this through? Like it’s just whoever, whoever these progressive people are, they have no interest in talking this through.

None. Right? So that’s why it’s easy to predict kind of where things go. Things go in the direction they’re on already until something changes that. So the extent you have these failed leadership in Ireland, it’s going to continue to just get worse and worse there until something changes. And they’re going to have to. Best case outcome for them would be a peaceful collapse of the government and a wholesale recasting of characters into those seats. The first mistake that probably 50% of people make when they get into prepping is they run out and they find the cheapest, biggest, biggest bucket of so called emergency food that money can buy.

The problem is it usually tastes awful. And I know what you’re thinking, Nate, in a disaster situation, I’m gonna rise to the occasion. My palate is formidable. No, it’s not. You’re not built like that. You’re a first worlder, just like me. There’s a much better solution that your family is going to love you for. Let’s check it out. Would you like some chocolate cake that will last last 25 years? How about some vegetables or some shredded beef or hundreds of other varieties? Go through the link in the description below and get 15% off. The number one freeze dried food company in America, the only one that I 100% resolutely endorse wholesale freeze dried foods.

Use the coupon code in the description for 15% off. We’re going to see more and more of that around the world. And it’s like when these crisis happen, it throws out sparks everywhere and it of course stirs up turmoil everywhere else. What are your thoughts on the prospective negotiations that are going on with respect to Iran? To me it just seems like kind of a farce for a myriad reasons. But what are your thoughts on that in terms of the. The US Strategy of imposing a blockade? I know you don’t get too much into military matters and geopolitics, but any thoughts on the likelihood of some sort of deal being struck? Well, this is a guerrilla war.

Right. It’s an asymmetrical war. Right. The United States has a lot of power and Iran doesn’t. But Iran has been playing this extremely smart. They’ve had a great strategy. I think everybody was surprised, I certainly was. That they didn’t just sort of fight back within five minutes of being decapitated. That was supposed to end the whole thing right there. It certainly would have done that to us. We’d have been in disarray, you know, but they were ready for it. They had four layers deep of, of people with instructions. And within five minutes of that happening, they were dialing in and they took out about 13 US bases in the region.

I mean, pretty well obliterated in most of the cases. And they took out all the eyes, they took out all the radar. They had a very comprehensive, obvious strategy. Like if you’re thinking, oh, you know, cartoonishly, you know, Arabs, oh, we had to fight Muslims in Afghanistan. You know, towels and 303 Enfields from World War I. Totally different cast of characters. The Iranians are smart, right? Right. So they dial in and they take out our eyes and ears and all that stuff in the region. And then now their job is to just wait because they know really? Well, that the longer they keep that straight, functionally closed, and when we see like just a few ships going through a day, it’s functionally closed, not entirely closed, but it’s functionally closed, the longer they can keep that going.

Every single day is in their favor. So I just read yesterday, they said, oh, well, we’re, you know, it’s tricky. We’ll propose maybe we should extend this so called ceasefire for a week. That’s going to be their game. Our game is going to be the clock is ticking and we can’t wait that long. Which is why I think we’re seeing troop movements out of Syria and all those ships are moving in with all sorts of stuff. They can wait. So this right now, as far as I don’t know what’s going on behind the doors, but last time I saw our list of 15 things and their list of 10 things, there was agreement on almost zero of those things.

Yeah, right, zero. And maybe they’ve come to agreement on a few of them. But you don’t have an actual ceasefire until both parties agree on everything in the list. You don’t have peace until you agree on everything in the list. And it’s signed with some sort of enforcement mechanism that binds it. I don’t see anything that has us close to that at this point in time. But maybe things are happening behind the scenes. I’m sure there are. That I have no idea about. But you know, Trump would come out and say, oh, we’re really close to a deal.

And then the, the Iranian Foreign Ministry would say, what are you talking about? We’re not even talking to you. Right. And it’s just, yeah, it doesn’t seem realistic. I think Iran’s, they just want to wait. They’re just going to wait us out two more weeks. And our oil inventories are down to the point where they don’t have to wait anymore. We’re going to be freaking out at that point in time. Their job is to wait. Our job is to force them not to wait. And I think that means escalation at some point. You know, I was thinking about it last night and diplomacy is supposed to be like this phase process where you get these specialists who go and they meet before you even send any, you know, top envoys or diplomats.

And they meet and then you meet, do things from the ground up, you build the foundation and then only when you’re kind of 90% of the way there do you send in the politicians. Like, I mean to send in JD Vance, the vice president, to Meet with the top tier of the Iranian delegation, some of which may actually be running the country. Just seems comical when six weeks ago you had just decapitated the leadership. When you have the Russians and the Ukrainians fighting for four years and you’ve yet to see any, you know, high ranking diplomat within Russia meet with any high ranking diplomat in Ukraine.

Not since the Istanbul talks, which were 90% of the way there before, you know, Britain intervened in that and made sure that that didn’t happen. So it’s just, I mean, that in and of itself, I think is evidence that this is all just for show. Like you. Why would you send? Because of course, once you exhaust that option of the top guys meeting, I mean, that’s it, right? That’s why you’re supposed to kind of work from the ground up. You don’t build the house on a shaky foundation or attempt to. So for me, it just seems like it’s.

Yeah, they’re just buying time. And I don’t know where the next move is going to be made, if it is going to be a ground offensive, backing rebels, taking an island. But it seems like there’s something kinetic that’s in the pipeline. And a lot of people are speculating it might just be another major bombing campaign. And I think they are just that unimaginative that it might just be that. You know, I’m not aware of any war or conflict that’s ever been won with a bombing campaign alone. From the air. It just. You can harass people, but you can’t really affect huge change.

You got to put boots on the ground for that. That’s just kind of the rule, I guess. But back to the negotiations. I mean, as soon as I saw that we were sending Kushner and Witkoff back, those were the guys that skunked him. Like that just tells me you’re not being serious about this. That’s telling me that you don’t want the talks to go well. Right. Sending those two clowns in. Yeah. And then I heard that J.D. vance was sitting there and he’d been counseled and they were talking and he said, oh, well, we have a new demand.

You’re going to have to recognize the state of Israel publicly. And they just got up and they walked out. Right. And you don’t throw that on the table is at his level without knowing that. That’s just. You were just insulting them at that point in time. I’m just saying I’m negotiating with you. And I’ve just told you I have zero respect for your position whatsoever. And it’s just so you might, they might as well put their feet up on the table and put their souls, you know, towards, towards these people. I mean it’s just like you only do that if you’re not negotiating in good faith.

But that’s the problem, right. Russia’s been calling us non agreement capable forever, but apparently we’re also non negotiation capable because we’ll negotiate and we’ll say stuff and then we might kill you anyway mid negotiation or just forget we ever negotiated that point and act as if we never did and ignore it. So, so I don’t. You need, you need some level of trust what you’re talking about, that you got to get the two groups together, you got to get the ground built up. People have to start talking to each other, begin to trust each other. I don’t see a basis for trust after what just happened.

Particularly with the decapitation strike. Particularly with the targeting error. Not. Wasn’t targeting error when we hit a school full of children. Right. That, that, that, that couldn’t have been a targeting error. That was a, that was a known. That was a. No, that’s a thing we did. And they know that. Yeah. It doesn’t, doesn’t look good. So what are you doing to prepare for what’s coming? I know you have a farm. I was talking to you about your cows beforehand and you’re, you’re building the self sustaining systems and you, you’re getting stocking up on lithium batteries.

Before China cuts us off, do you have any actionable advice for people on what they can do to, to get ready for the hard times that may be ahead? Yeah, so I, I’ve been pretty prepared for a long time and I’ll be honest, I’ve been really ramping those efforts up. I found another gear I didn’t know I had and it is because I started to process through what was just happening. And bottom of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs is food, shelter, safety, warmth. Right. And I see that they’re attacking food and fuel, which is warmth and shelter in essence.

Right. Because you need to keep your shelter warm and cool. So I was looking at that and I said, oh, I have to now reorient my mind as if, what if those really go away? Second thing I had to reorient around was China has very clearly been pretty quiet. But the last week they’ve started to say things like if you attack one of our ships because we said, the United States said, oh, if it hailed from an Iranian port, we’re going to board it and seize it. And China said, like heck you will. Right. And so there’s tension.

If we push China over a specific edge, I think that their top weapon is to just cut off exports with us. And so. Wow, that’s a huge thing to sort of process. The biggest things that I’ve done in response to that is I bought an extra pallet of solar panels. I’ve got them everywhere but I’m like, wow, I can get them for cheap down here still because there’s these abandoned projects or they bought too many. I mean I can buy a whole pallet for like 80 bucks a panel. It’s crazy. So like sounds like a good deal.

I trust a lot of silver in there. There’s going to be. There is. And while I might not need all of those, I’m sure people in town are. And so these are going to be my like golden trading units. Here you go. Here’s electrons. So I’m thinking of it that way, but it seems like a fairly low risk kind of thing. I can buy lithium batteries. Big, big deal. So a big purchase of mine lately. I’ve never had an electric car and we just bought this is EV6 made by Kia and it comes with 84 kilowatt hours of battery on board, which is pretty big system.

And it goes both ways. It has a plug, you can, you can both charge from your solar panels and it’ll run my house off of it. So it’s kind of like we got this really cool, pretty sporty car and it was cheap. We got one that was used 22,000 miles on it and it was $23,000. And what kind of color was it? It’s a Kia, an EV6 and we got the wind and because my wife was with me and she liked the GT model which is their, their sort of sport model. This has the bi directional charging.

Okay. It has a plug that. Yes. Special adapter goes right in your, your plug in charging port and it’s got a plug on the back and it actually can handle pretty decent amount it’s got, it can handle pretty heavy load. So I’m thinking that’s going to run my three freezers, no problem for, for weeks in a pinch. I’ve always thought, you know, people underestimate especially in the preparedness. People are ice engine purists and they kind of scoff at evs but you know, their dual purpose in many respects is that they’re basically your, your power station on wheels in a lot of ways.

Yeah, the Teslas don’t have that functionality. But the, I think the Ford trucks that are now discontinued and this Kia that you’re talking about does. Well, I mean for those, for those purists though, this, the GT model, 650 horsepower equivalent, 585 foot pounds of torque, which from my youth was the top of the top of the muscle cars. Right. Yeah. Only it has a flat torque curve. So it has, it has access to that. Whether you’re going 0 or 70. It doesn’t. Doesn’t care. Right. Yeah. I have a model S and it’s a thousand horsepower, which is crazy.

It’s crazy. Right. But I’m actually looking at it as sort of. It’s like a rolling battery, you know? Yeah. Oh, for sure. I mean it makes perfect sense. Makes perfect sense. Well, you know this, that’s good advice for people. Stock up on those things that you think might not be in a Walmart or a Costco soon because China cuts us off. I think that’s very prudent advice. Chris, I want to thank you for coming out, man. You really help make these very complicated energy, dynamic economic relationships easy to understand. And where can people find more information about you asides from your well known YouTube channel, Peak Prosperity? Well, the website is peak prosperity.com a lot of content going on there.

That, that’s my home. I’m there seven days a week. And I’m also pretty active on Twitter @ChrisMartinson and I, I don’t hide. You know, I’m always out there. I’ve been public with my own name for a long, long, long time. And maybe that’s silly or not, but we’ll see. But it has its. Yep. And, and hopefully no disadvantages. But yeah, that, that’s where you find me. And, and there’s other, you know, we got stuff on all the other social media out there, but really X is my home because that’s where I get 95 of my news right now.

And yeah, it’s just, it’s hard to find real news out there anymore. Well, I’d encourage people to go and check it out because you’re one of the few people that I, I’ve been listening to lately. You know, there’s a lot of opinions floating around the space. I mean, I do the current event stuff, but to get real data driven analysis from time to time is, is really nice to, to be able to assimilate that information into our understanding of things. So I appreciate what you’re doing and encourage people to go and check out your channel and subscribe and yeah, thanks for coming out man.

I appreciate it. We’ll. We’ll have you back again. Thanks for the invite and be well up there and keep prepping. We’ll do. I have to. It’s. We’ve got a second winter now so fortunately snowstorm coming through here so. Oh no, that’s discouraging. It’s. It’s never ending all of that record heat you guys are. There’s an invisible force field at the border that’s keeping all the heat out of Canada and keeping all the cold air up here which sucks but I guess that’ll be good when the hits the fan because nobody want to come here. Thanks for coming out, Chris.

There it is. All right, thanks. The best way to support this channel is to support yourself by gearing up@canadianpreparedness.com where you’ll find high quality survival gear at the best prices. No junk and no gimmicks. Use discount code prepping gear for 10% off. Don’t forget the strong survive but the prepared thrive stay safe.
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