If The Dollar Has 10 Years Left Sex Changes Will Become Mandatory For All Children | Rafi Farber

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Summary

➡ Rafi Farber in this video has a conversation with Phil, discussing Keith Weiner’s theory that the dollar’s collapse is years away. They also talk about the potential of investing in post-collapse banking and diversifying assets. They discuss the risks of storing wealth in different forms and places, and the concept of capital consumption, where people chase quick profits instead of investing in long-term productive activities.
➡ The text discusses the potential negative impacts of speculative trading and inflation on the economy. It suggests that if everyone focuses on chasing freshly printed money and neglects productive work, the economy could collapse. The author believes that society is already showing signs of rejecting this system, and that we won’t reach a point of total societal breakdown. The text also discusses the potential for gold and silver-backed banking systems to help stabilize the economy after a crisis.
➡ The speaker discusses the potential fall of the monetary system and the impact on banking, suggesting diversification as a strategy. They also discuss the potential impact on agriculture due to the reliance on credit, but suggest local alternatives could be found. The speaker warns against state control of farms, citing historical examples of starvation under such systems. They also discuss the potential for a major currency like the yen to cause a global financial collapse if it fails, due to its interconnectedness with other currencies.
➡ The text discusses the potential for a financial crisis in Japan, where people may abandon their banking system and currency, possibly returning to gold and silver. It also explores the ‘rational expectations hypothesis’, which suggests people react logically to future financial expectations. However, the text argues this theory is often manipulated by central banks to control the economy. Lastly, it questions whether people truly act rationally in economic situations, comparing them to animals following instinct rather than calculated thought.
➡ The text discusses the idea of humans learning from past mistakes and not repeating them, especially in terms of economic systems and practices. It suggests that despite knowing the consequences, people often fall into the same traps due to greed or desperation. The text also explores the concept of power dynamics, with some people understanding and manipulating economic systems for their benefit, while others are caught in the middle. Lastly, it questions why humans constantly try to control everything, suggesting it might be due to fear of the unknown or death.
➡ The speaker believes that some people, especially those who deny the existence of God, often try to play God themselves, leading to extreme actions like gender reassignment surgery. They also discuss a controversial opinion they read about taxing heterosexual sex. The speaker suggests that divine justice works through natural consequences, and that God tries to prevent humans from causing too much self-destruction. They end on a hopeful note, believing that their version of the apocalypse is better than another’s.

Transcript

If Keith Weiner is correct, we’re going to have to get to the point where sex changes become mandatory before the dollar collapses. And I’m not. I’m not. I’m not going to make it that far. I’m sorry. I’m just going to. I’m going to peace out before then. So I hope Keith is wrong. Hey, guys. Raf here from the endgame investor. And I’ve got Phil on the line for this month’s installation of the bitter endgame draft. Right. Okay. Yeah. Phil’s channel is the. The bitter draft on rumble. There’ll be a link in the description below and my channel is here.

And if you don’t know where here is, then you’re probably not watching. So, uh, what the hell am I looking at? When does this happen in the movie? Now. You’re looking at now, sir. Everything that happens now is happening now. Anyway, we’re going to discuss, uh, Keith Weiner and his theory that we’re still years away from the end game versus my theory, which Phil basically agrees with me. Maybe we have some differences in nuance about it, but that the dollar can die a lot more quickly than years from now and it won’t necessarily. It might technically be the last currency to die, but it might be, in that sense, dying together with every other currency simultaneously and not necessarily every other currency dying.

And then finally, once every currency in the world is dead, the dollar finally dies. I don’t think it’s going to happen that way. So we’ll discuss that and then we’ll go into rational expectations and the basis trade if we have time. So, Phil, how are you doing? And secondly, did you see my interview with Keith Weiner? And what did you think I did? I’m doing very well. Just got back from the beach, I stepped on a horseshoe gravel. I was there and I thought it was a pair of goggles. So I bent down to pick it up and it was.

Their blood is worth more than gold, I think. Is it? Yeah. Yeah. Well, I freaked out because I was expecting inanimate. I thought, oh, I’ve stepped on someone’s goggles because it felt like with my foot, it felt like goggles. And I’ve been down to pick it up and it’s writhing around feeling it’s crustaceany thing. And then I freaked out and, you know. Do you know what they use? Do you know what they use Hirshhu crab blood for? It’s an anticoagulant or something. Right? It’s. I think they do it to purify these medical concoctions whether they’re vaccines or not necessarily vaccines, but anything, they need to be completely sterile so they have no antibodies, these creatures.

So if you put any horseshoe crab blood in some kind of mixture or solution then any impurity will immediately crystallize out because the blood attacks it. And that’s how the horseshoe crabs get rid of infection. I might have mangled that a little bit, but that’s the basic idea. So every few years or every year they collect horseshoe crab blood and it’s incredibly expensive and then they put the horseshoe crabs back. And these creatures, unless you’re a young universe theorist or something and you think the universe is 6000 years old then there’s evidence that these creatures are like hundreds of millions of years old.

Very, very old. Yeah, yeah. They’re like trilobites. They’re modern trilobites. But they, all I know is their blood is blue and they are valuable, like you said. But I dropped, I dropped the gold nugget. I got freaked out when the gold nugget started wiggling in my hands and I dropped it and scuttled away. If you can farm horseshoe crabs and get their blood like that might be better than stacking. If you can do it, that’s my in game plan. Or should grab farming. All right, Keith Weider. Keith Weider, we’re getting off topic. Sorry. So I want to say I really, I really like Keith Weiner and I admire him because I’m going to, I’m going to attack one part of his analysis.

But I think he’s a brilliant man. My favorite thing about Keith Weiner is one of them. My favorite thing about him that he doesn’t give a crap about pissing anybody off. That is, that is a noble traits to have. So he, I think the way he described what he’s doing with monetary metals where he has the silver bond, the silver bond with the, was the name of the bank. It’s like hi ho, silver or something. Or the mine, the mine with Bunker Hill. Bunker Hill. I knew it was something american. I had a very american name and I was like, hi ho, Silver, Bunker Hill.

Okay, so Bunker Hill mine, he’s offering a silver bond on that. And I realized he is setting up post in game bank. Assuming his stashes are not stolen by either the state or bad actors he will have one of four extant banks in the world that survived the crisis. So his bank will be like the mammal that survives the meteor that killed all the dinosaurs. And so you really, I don’t think it’s a bad idea to be involved in something like that if you want to get on board with that. I don’t. I mean, I don’t recommend anything because that’s illegal.

But, you know, I just thinking in my own mind, I’m like, that’s probably a pretty good idea to get involved in post collapse banking before the collapse and just be ready and just, oh, well, I’m one of four banks in the world, so. Right, so. So, Phil, if you want to use my link in the description below, you can. You can sign up for a monetary metals account. No pressure. I will do. What’s. What’s the. What’s the passcode, Rafi? The passcode or the. What’s the coupon code? The link code is there. I think it’s like monetary dash metals slash rafi or something.

I’ll put it in the description. You can use it. Okay, there we go. Plug your shit. So the comments I get on that, and I understand them, is like, if you don’t hold it, you don’t own it. And. Okay, I get it. I get it. I know what that means to. But if you hold it and then somebody comes in your house with a gun and shoots you, then you don’t own it either. So there’s risks with everything. There’s risks in hacking. There’s risks in putting it with Keith Weiner. There’s risk in vaulting it anywhere else.

There’s risks in a dirty man safe. Somebody comes into your backyard with a metal detector or whatever. That’s what we mean. Diversify. Yeah. No, I would just say diversification is the key. Have some, you know, nearby. Have some far away. Near, far. That’s the best way to do it. And one of the good ways you can earn interest on it is by putting it in Keith Weiner, wherever you are. So if you trust. If you trust him more than you trust, you know, other. Other ways you could store it and you want some interest on it, I think it’s a very good vehicle.

I think, for our weekly quotation of Celine Dion, I think we did one last week. You said, have some near, have some far. Have some wherever you are. I believe that the monetary system will go on. Okay, keep doing that. Yeah, keep going. Okay. Okay. Okay. So the. So Keith Weiner’s, his premise of his argument, as you said in the introduction, is that we’re going to have ten years of this, maybe another ten years, maybe longer, where other currencies die off and just people. It’s dollar milkshake theory, basically. Other currencies die off and people demand the dollar.

So we print the dollars, it’s an amount and us more stuff. And Americans become more bloated and dissolute, and the other countries become even more impoverished as they’re sending us stuff to get the dollars that they need to keep their banking systems from collapsing. My counter hypothesis is that the problem I have with this is that Keith Weiner is assuming. Hold on, hold on. Before you get into that, just remember where you are. He says that this is a game of consumption of capital, and this is why. This is what I wanted to talk to you about, that you’re a trained economist, and I’m just like an armchair guy who read a lot of books.

Sure. So when he says consumption of capital, what does that actually mean? So what he’s saying is that people are chasing the boom instead of doing what they should be doing with the alternative use of their capital. So the way to think about this in the real world is the farmer is instead of letting his, uh, instead of tending to his crops, instead of repairing his tractor, tending to his crops, he’s in his house, uh, uh, uh, trading GME stocks, like right now, furiously trading GME stock or bitcoin, or bitcoin. Furiously trading. Yeah, seriously engaging in these boom, these boom things.

Because he’s like, he’s like, you know, I can get, uh, you know, I can get $50,000 for that corn out there, but I just made $500 million. You know, I just made a whatever a lot more just doing this. And now I can spend the rest of the day being idle because look at the numbers on my screen. They’re so big. So that’s the real world analogy of what he means when he’s saying destruction of capital. But you can think of it as also because everyone’s doing that. Like he said, the cost of getting their repair stuff for the tractor is higher.

The alternatives to sitting here trading GME stocks is those prices go up because they have to compete with trading GME stocks. So the cost of the car panic, the car mechanics, repair bills, goes up. Everything. It’s just a function of the inflation. The price of everything is going up because they’re competing with the speculators, the stock jobbers, trying to buy GME and strike it rich on bitcoin. He’s saying that the entire world, as they demand dollars like America, sucks in all the capital of the world, and once we have, like, all the capital and we’re busy destroying it, and the world has no capital at all.

And we’re back to, like, sticks and, like, fruit pickers at most. Then everything is destroyed. Yeah. What Keith is doing is he’s taking it to the. To the logical point, the final point. It’s going to crash far before then. Now, if we had. If you assume, you would have to assume a perfect AI with all knowledge running the fed and just able to jigger all the things that they have and able to make new, whatever their new institutions they need to make just to be able to keep the little scheme going to get to that end point.

I don’t think an AI like that could even be. It’s not possible because you’re talking about human nature. And you would also need a gullible. You would need a population willing to go along with this forever. So you would need us to become. You need Americans to become like Wall e, the people in Wall E, or the. What was the other. What was the other movie? Idiocracy. So you need us to. Was it the. In the time machine, HG wells. Right. Everybody got really weak and short and kind of pudgy. Yeah, exactly. You would need. You would need the entire population to do that.

And so we would all, like, we would all just be like, you know, we borrow $300,000 and we’d all just be, you know, massively obese and, you know, and trade stock jobbing GME and watching pornography all day. The masturbation network keeping America baiting for 300 years go away. Baiting. It does seem like we’re headed in that direction. We are heading in that direction. But it cuts off before we get. I think it will cut off before we get there. But, I mean, if you want to think about it, like, the destruction of, like, if everyone’s doing rent seeking, if everyone’s just chasing those dollars that are being freshly printed.

So you go to. You send your kid to a public school, and it’s just from 09:00 a.m. to 05:00 p.m. is LGBTQ training about all the sexual stuff. And that math is gone. English is gone. It’s just this all day, every day, because that’s where the money printer has directed that to go. And everyone’s just chasing that, right? They haven’t declared the Alphabet illegal yet for being in the right order. So we become. So at that logical conclusion, we just become this cargo cult where we have all this stuff is around us, and we have no idea how any of it works because we just been doing this nonsense gender theory in school, and we’ve all been just trading GME stocks instead of, you know, working on a farm, and, you know, everything’s gone to rust.

The. The thing is, we. That assumes that, like, the body. Like, if you think of the economy as, like, an organic system, which I do. I do think of us as an organic system. We are already developed. Like, you and I are antibodies, and there’s many more of us, and there’s more and more every day. We are developing. The economy’s dry heaving this monetary poison out. Right now, we’re already. But the. The. The puke, like, in what’s that movie team America, when the puppet’s, like, puking just endlessly? That is the. That is the rejection of the monetary system.

Phil, you’re, like, you’re filling this with memes. I can’t resist, but it’s just gonna be a problem. Okay, so, like, we. We are already. I’m gonna get a little gross in a second. We are already. The antibodies and the antibodies are already acting to purge us. Like, we’re already, like, people are already at the school board meetings. Like, what. What exactly are you spending our money on? Teaching our children? Right. Aren’t they supposed to be learning math? Right. So it’s. I think we’re gonna reject at some point before we get to, like, Wally. Cause what? You’re what? Not you.

What Keith is assuming is that, like, we’re gonna start dry heaving, and, like, a little bit’s gonna come up, going to swallow back down, and then ingest a whole bunch more poison for another ten years before we do the final purge. I think we’re purging now. So now maybe we have a little bit more poison to ingest before we finish our purge, but I think we’re on the final purge. I don’t know. So I guess historical evidence would suggest we’ve never gone that far before. No society that’s been in the hyperinflationary cycle before has ever gotten to the point where the entire society is just bloated, obese.

Everyone’s on a mobility scooter. No one can move. No one can think. So I don’t think we’re going to get to that point now. Maybe we will, and I’m wrong, and Keith is right, but I wouldn’t stack my fortunes on that. Not to mention, if we do, I still don’t think a silver bond is more. Because what he was saying was, his company is designed to avert the crisis. I don’t think you’re going to be able to avert the crisis. What you are, therefore, is to reestablish credit after the crisis. I don’t think he’s saying averted.

I think he’s saying, theoretically, if we had a world where nobody was doing what he was doing and we just had stackers with hoards of gold buried in their backyards, then it’s going to be very difficult for us to purchase everything and maintain some basic law and order where we would want to purchase anything. Because if everything’s really in cash, it doesn’t matter how cheap anything is, we’re not going to do anything. Right. So his point was like, if you support someone like me, not dafka, him. Like, he’s not. He’s not like asking for handouts or anything.

But if we have a banking system that lends denominated in gold and silver, then you can have actual business and blood flowing through the monetary system. And if you have a gold flow already started, then you can, like, go on to that and then. And then start moving. Like, if the engine is already sort of moving, you can. He’s got. I think he’s. I think he’s right there. And again, I think for myself, I’m going to keenly look into this because I think it’s a great chance to get on the ground floor of one of four banks in the world.

I mean, what’s. It’s going to be his bank. Battle bank Rick rules. Battle bank is also gold backed. And like Peter Schiff, that’s about it. Was closed down by this. Was closed. Okay, he might restart something, but anyway, so, too, there’s going to be two banks. So anyway. But you get my point. I think that would be a great opportunity to get in the round floor. However, the analogy he used was the roman withdrawal from Britain, right? So in the 1970s and eighties, the farmers were digging up these gold chests and they said, oh, it must have been too scary to even dig the gold up.

Scary for who? Rafi, who left England in the fifth century? The Romans. Yeah. If you’re walking around in a toga, speaking Latin in the fifth century England waving gold around, you’re probably going to get robbed. But were the native Britons robbing each other? I mean, was fifth century England a bad place? You know, was it a great place to live? Probably not. But was fourth century Britain a great place to live? By our standards, probably not. So, you know, I don’t know. You know, the Romans probably had to run away and maybe they thought they were going to come back and that’s why they buried their gold.

I don’t know if the native Britons were behaving in the same way with each other. Right. I mean, they, you know, they had the Mont Baileys and they had, you know, there were the various, you know, wooden structure castles and, you know, I’m sure they rated each other. I’m sure it got very tribal, but they could still trade with each other. Like England did not collapse into cannibalism and, you know, depopulate itself. Okay, so, I mean, it’s different in America and basically the entire world now because there are no. I’m not saying there are no Native Americans.

I’m saying they’re insignificant. It doesn’t matter. The american society is not native to anything. It’s a transplant. And there’s no Americans to run away. They’re not going to run away to anywhere. So we’re just going to have a fall in the monetary system and hopefully we have a little bit of a spinning banking system in gold and silver loans. I think it’s unrealistic to expect that Keith Weiner or somebody like him is going to be able to restart an entire banking system as this thing is falling because they’re going to come after him, too at some point.

Yeah, maybe. I mean, I don’t mean to discourage anyone from opening an account, but maybe I should shut up. They might try. I’d said, I said, if they don’t rob, if he’s not robbed, then you’re talking about getting really early on a bank. I mean, like the bank now, whether. But that’s presupposes not being robbed. So I would, again, I don’t recommend anything, but I would think about diversifying a little bit here, a little bit there, little bit in the bank. So my question, or at least my thought is I think he’s overly. I think he’s overly pessimistic on the stackers.

I think. I think the stacks will. All the research I’ve done is that in the French, after the assigns, the silvers exploded out. After Weimar, once they stop robbing people on the street, the silver exploded out and people started using the rented marks again. So I haven’t seen any evidence that people just people store. People store it and don’t trade if they’re given the opportunity to do so without being robbed. Right. And you’re only going to find the gold hoards that were not used, like any gold hoards that were taken out and used to buy things, you’re not going to find them by definition.

So you’re kind of biased. Yeah. So, yeah, but those are my only point. I mean, I’m not trying to dog the guy. I think his analysis is brilliant, and I think his solution is a great one. I just think he’s a little overly doom and gloom on a couple of those points. This is just a financial panic. Doesn’t have to be anything more than a financial panic. It’s really what society’s reaction to it that determines if it’s just a financial panic or if it’s ten years of wailing and gnashing of teeth and horrible wars and chaos.

Yeah, I mean, I think it’s going to take more than. Even if the end game takes like, say, ten years from now, even if it does, which I don’t think it will, but we’re not going to. Not all of the capital in the world is going to be rusting in ten years. There’s plenty here that will be functional. Yeah. Just going to have to be repurposed and maybe broken down into smaller units or something. And the other point, he was saying that millions of people are going to starve to death. Don’t see how he was talking.

The reason he thinks that. I understand why he thinks that. So the reason he thinks that is because these giant agribusinesses run on enormous amounts of credit. So when that credit dries up, these huge farm conglomerates will not be able to run their giant business and get food out to the Walmarts. However, they could still sell. You know, if I was, you know, they could have a fire sale auction for their land. The local neighbors buy them up, and then they show up with a truck and harvest all the corn, drive it to the local store.

I mean, there’s local, there’s alternative ways to get the corn to the shop. So I don’t, and I don’t see how, if inflation is theft, I don’t see how we can grow more food with theft than we can without theft. It’s not, you can grow more food with theft than you can without theft. It’s that if you have theft, then you can. Then farmers can, or whoever’s funding the farmers can steal more stuff from other people to grow more food. But it’s a zero sum game. Right. But you have more food but less other things. Yeah.

You know, I think I’m going a little bit too far out here. I can’t really process all this and try to figure out where it’s going to go. But I wanted. You don’t have to figure it out. I mean, I think if we allow the market to clear the market will clearly. So the corn will get to. The corn will get to market. We don’t have to come up with that solution here. That’s the beauty of the market. Somebody will come up with it. We just have to. We. Our job, the way I see it anyway, is our job is to tell people, don’t tell, don’t let the state start, you know, have collectivizing the farms.

Because that’s. That will be. That will be proposed. And if that happens, then we are looking at starvation. Yes. They start coming up. The biggest starvations in history were not because of a financial calamity that broke up capital. And. And then we just didn’t have the means to produce anything. It was Mao, right, saying, the government’s going to be in charge of food. Well, then there’s going to be no food. You know, anything the government’s in charge of. You don’t have any of the government’s charge of the army here. The army doesn’t do shit when you’re invaded.

So. We already know that. I’m sorry. It just keeps coming at me. And, like, yesterday was a bad day. There was a bunch of bombs and fires and now it’s all barbecue and Smokey. And the power went out for a few minutes. First time the power went out for few minutes from the bombs. And they’re openly telling us, like, you know, if there’s an invasion, on your own. Well, yeah. Well, fuck you, IDF. What am I going to say? Wow. They really said that? They said, if there’s invasion, you’re on your own up in the north.

Yeah. They’re saying to everyone. They’re saying it to everyone. So that what they’re doing is they’re. They’re kind of like front loading. The incompetence. So they say. Oh, yeah. What do you mean? Don’t yell at us for being in comedy. We told you we would be. So what do you have to complain about? Front loading. The incompetence. I like that. Well, you know what? That’s at least more honest than saying, everything’s fine until hezbollah’s on your doorstep. Yeah. Anyway, so I just wanted to get this by you. So I wrote in the endgame investor today that the reason, I guess, just mechanically, why I think why I think Keith is wrong is because I think the pyramid.

We talk about the inverted pyramid. A lot of. We just use that as a heuristic. We don’t know exactly what it is. Maybe it’s a pyramid. Maybe it’s something a little bit more complicated. We just use that because that’s what we can understand. So I think maybe if you know what either a Klein bottle is or a hypercube, a Klein bottle is like a three dimensional mobius strip. I think I’ve used this before where the bottle kind of like goes in on itself and then flips in the third dimension. So we’re sort of like a four dimensional pyramid that like spills into itself and then out again.

And what I mean is, I don’t want to get too crazy. I’ll put like a meme here of a hypercube, like rotating in the fourth dimension. So you understand what I’m saying? He’s saying that everything is a discrete layer. And because the bot, the dollar is on the bottom, therefore it takes the most time to get to the bottom to fall over, and then you’re left with gold and silver, but the dollar is the last. What I’m saying is that because the dollar is so spread out and other countries have all these hoards of treasuries, you have somebody at the top of the pyramid, say Japan, that has like $1.1 trillion in treasuries.

Basically Japan on the top layer, or whoever it is in the pyramid, is reaching down into the base and saying, like, if my layer goes down, I’m pulling this layer up with me, you know, I’m going to flip the whole thing because it’s not an open threat. It’s just like the way things are, because that’s what they have. So if you have a country like Argentina or Zimbabwe or Venezuela, they hyperinflate, right? There’s some kind of, like, bumble nothing at the top of the pyramid. They have no structural integrity relationships with anything below them. They’re just on top and they die.

And so like a branch of the top of the tree dries, you just cut it off and it keeps, it keeps growing. Right. But if you have somebody like Japan, which has its hands, like down into the bottom of it, and then you hurt them, then they can flip the whole thing inside out, and then every other currency dies, which is what my thesis is. If the yen dies, everything goes. Yeah, I think I can, I think I concur with that. I think I concur with that. I mean, I guess we’ll see what happens. Yeah, I mean, what you’re saying makes a logical, makes, makes a certain amount of logical sense.

Making it up in my head. I’ve done that a lot, too. I can’t. So the way I look at it is, it’s, do people walk away from their currencies or not. So at some point, the japanese people just have to walk away from their banking system. And when they do that, that’s when they just abandon. If they try to, when the yen hits a real crisis point, they’re going to say, we need more dollars. And either the people are going to say, why do we want more dollars? What are we doing here? Why are we doing this? And which case they’ll say, okay, fine, we’ll go back to gold and silver and we’ll abandon our treaties with the US and become an independent country again, or the people won’t do that and they’ll scramble for more dollars to save their banking system and this will putter on as long as it can until it collapses.

But I think we’re at the point, I really think we’re at the point where everyone’s going to say, what are we doing? What are these pieces of paper? Next thing you wanted to go to is rational expectations hypothesis. What is this and what do you got to say about it? Sure. So the rational expectations hypothesis is the theory that consumers, it’s particularly macroeconomics that consumers respond rationally to respond rationally to what they think they will expect in the future. So if they expect prices to go up, they’ll go out and buy now, and that will raise the prices now.

The point I wanted to make, and the other thing is if they think interest rates are going to go up higher in the future, theyll get the mortgage now because they think interest rates are going to go higher in the future. The point I wanted to make is that this is abused in macroeconomics by the powers that be. And this was in a textbook that I had. I think it was like macroeconomics 201 or 301 or something like that. And it specifically said a central bank is most effective basically when it lies. So a central bank is most effective when people believe it is going to cut rates and then it raises rates.

Or if people believe it’s going to raise rates, but then it cut rates. So a central bank will jawbone itself in the other direction to achieve the maximum impact of whatever it is trying to implement. That seems the opposite, though, of what they actually do. They prepare the market. They get the ground ready for what they’re going to do. And they say, oh, either we’re going to cut rates, we’re going to cut rates. And then finally they do. They don’t want to surprise the market. It seems that they don’t want to surprise the market. And what you’re saying is the exact opposite.

I think they don’t want to surprise the market on raising rates. They give plenty of warning they’re going to raise the rates. I think they do tend to surprise the market on the way down. It was just like, I think Mario was talking the other day about volatility. When banks say, no, it was clock. Clive Thompson, he was interviewing with Mario. When banks say they’re trying to avoid volatility, they’re just trying to avoid the downside of volatility. They don’t care about the upside of volatility. So when they say, we want to avoid volatility, what they’re trying to say is, we want to avoid losing money or losing currency.

So like you said before, the central bank is, the Federal reserve in this final print is probably just going to do it in the dead of night. Something’s going to break, and then they’re going to set interest rates to zero in the dead of night. They’re not telling people, hey, guys, we’re running out of reserves here, so you probably want to get ready for some nasty crashes and us going to zero. They’re saying, everything’s fine. We can handle interest rates at 5% forever. We’re just getting back to normal, to the normal trend line. They’re not saying, oh, hey, guys, we’re running a ponzi on you.

So my question, I guess my thought is just in general, it’s just how disgusting macroeconomics is as a discipline, it’s just a complete, um, you know, everything rely. I mean, it’s, in the text, they don’t say it’s lying, but in the textbook, it specifically said the Federal Reserve should not jawbone the direction it’s going to go because that, that depletes its effectiveness, that reduces its effectiveness. Because if people are expecting lower interest rates and they front run it, and then you don’t get the effect you want. Um, yeah, so it’s about how to lie efficiently, but that’s just an aspect of, you can call central banking and macroeconomics how to lie, to try to squeeze production out of your people as much as possible and take as much as you can.

But that’s what a central bank is, and that’s what it does. But why doesn’t, I guess my question, if rational expectations, I don’t think rational expectations are actually a thing, because if they were a thing, then people would be able to see into the future. I mean, they would be able to say, okay, the fed cannot do this forever. We need to go back to a gold and silver standard, because this is a Ponzi scheme, right? They’re not, they’re not. People are not able to. When I talk to people, most people are normies and they just don’t, they don’t get it.

You know, they don’t care. So, I mean, maybe they do care on an emotional level, but they don’t understand it and they don’t want to get out of the system. So I guess my thinking is that rational expectations is a myth. Okay, so here’s my response to that. Right? And this is off the cuff. I haven’t really thought about this. But from what you’re saying, you’re saying rational expectations is myth because people don’t understand what’s going on and they’re not even thinking about it. So you can’t expect them to do anything that makes any sense. Right, right.

But here’s. I mean, Hayek said his single greatest contribution to economics is to realize that the price system is a guide to putting people into an order. It’s not like people are waking up in the morning and say, hmm, where should I go on the division of labor? Well, I’ll look at the price signals and then I’ll decide. Because they’re not thinking of price signals as a signal for them of where to go, but they are going to follow the price signals. Whether they understand that’s what they’re doing as joining a division of labor, because they’re following a price signal or nothing doesn’t matter.

They’re just going to follow the price signal. So I guess the word rational is, it’s not a good word for what’s going on. Like if there’s a rats in a maze and there’s cheese, you can expect the rats to try to find the cheese. They’re not rationally doing it, they’re just doing it. But the example I use is a dog. Like, if I throw a ball to a dog, the dog isn’t doing a calculus to calculate the trajectory of the ball and to arrive at the point where the ball is going to land. He’s just chasing the ball.

Right? So these people that don’t understand, I have no idea what the monetary system is, don’t know why gold and silver are even relevant to anything. Well, you know what? When the price of gold and silver keeps going up and up and up and up and hyperinflation is becoming obvious to everyone, what they’re going to do is buy gold and silver, not because they understand that it’s money or that it’s more liquidity they’re going to do it because just for the reason that the dog chases the ball or the rats find the cheese, because that’s what people do, right? So then in that case, the rational expectation would work correctly, because they would see, they would see the price going up.

They would see the price of everything going up. They would see that gold and silver are safer way to store their wealth than anything else. And so they would work, for example, like an ecologist, right? Everything in the ecosystem of a certain of an ecosystem, let’s say in a tropical forest, is very finely tuned. Finely tuned and finely balanced. And then the ecologist comes from on top and studies it and says, oh, you know why it’s balanced? Because this is the predator of that. And this dies off in the winter, and then this comes and grows in its place, and then everything works in a circle, right? But the ecosystem itself has no idea what’s going on.

And then the guy from on top says, oh, this is what’s going on. So as an economist, we look at the interaction of humans where none of them know what’s going on. They’re just trying to make money and survive. And we come as economists and say, oh, well, look at this. This is what’s going on here. Divisional layer. Okay, yeah, I guess my question, my question really fundamentally is trying to get at can humans inoculate themselves? Inoculation is probably a bad word with you, but can humans inoculate themselves against these kind of things in the future, rationally? So is there something we can do as either you and I, as individuals or as a society as a whole, to make sure that we stay on the gold and silver standard? Oh, boy.

You know what my answer to this question is going to be? We already got the answer to this. When God came down in Sinai and gave us the Torah. We know what we’re supposed to do. Stop stealing from each other, okay? That’s it. Thou shalt not steal. And there’s, but there’s no way to enforce that. There’s no perfect way to do that. We keep making the same mistakes over and over and then dying off. And then, you know, the survivors again go back to the system and it’s, you know, either they do it right or they do it wrong, and we have an anchor to some kind of message that, you know, we’re not allowed to steal, which is why Noah was the only one that survived, because he was the only one worth saving.

Look, we’re going to go through this again and again and again. Is there going to be some point where human nature changes, where the people who don’t want to steal and want to save everyone actually have all the power. Yeah, maybe. I hope so. But I have no idea how to get there. So the way, I guess. Okay, so the way to fundamentally think about this is the rat. If you go back to the rat in the maze analogy, and I actually have a maze right over there, the rat is rationally trying to get to the cheese within the confines of the maze.

But the maze, the scientists running the maze can rearrange the maze or do whatever he wants to mess with the rat. So the rat, even with rational expectations, cannot outdo the maze runner unless he escapes the maze. Is that a good analogy? Did I. Did I pull that off? Sure. Okay. I’m just trying to think, like, because I would hope, you know, when you learn about homo economicus, you learn about the rational man in economics class. You know, you would think, like, a free market would not allow this to happen, but. But we find ourselves here staring this abyss.

So I’m just wondering, like, how can. I guess there is no way to avoid it. I guess there is no way to avoid staring into the abyss. Once somebody runs a giant ponzi and people fall for it. Yeah, well, the problem with economics is that once people understand what’s going on in this system, if they can figure out a way to steal from it without people noticing, they will do that. Yeah. So until people really understood what interest rates were, there were interest rates before people understood what interest rates are, and there was currency before people really understood that it was a derivative of the dollar.

And what you could do with that kind of weapon now that they get it. When the Fed was founded in 1913, it didn’t really understand so much about what it was doing. And then it got better and better at squeezing more blood out of us, and now it’s really, really good at it, because anytime we get a real economic signal, it’s going to descend on it with a new tentacle. The way Keith put it, Washington, every time there’s a new breakdown, the Fed springs a new tentacle, and we really do see that. So they’re going to plug into everything they can as soon as they can, and they really understand how it works now.

And then, maybe, hopefully, once they’ve wrung out as much juice as possible from the system and bled us all dry with the stackers who just. Okay, so here’s a way to look at it, okay? You have the evil people that understand economics, the central bankers, and they’re really trying to. Whether they. The question isn’t whether they know they’re trying to be evil or whether they’re just stuck in a system that happens to be evil, and they don’t really understand how evil they are. Maybe that’s the case, but either way, we understand that they’re doing something really bad, and we’re the antibodies, so we’re the ones fighting them.

We’re the ones stacking. Keith is the one trying to start this gold and silver bank, whatever it is, and we have our people, and now it’s like us versus them, with the people in the middle of no idea what’s going on. Think that we’re blabbing about nonsense, and they have no idea what the central bank is saying either. And they’re caught in the middle of this. They’re the rats in the maze, and we’re trying to, like, fight the scientist who’s trying to mess with the rats. Yeah. So, like, one of us is gonna win, and then when one of us wins, hopefully we have a leader that can now reorganize things, not in a central planning way, but in a liberty way, and just maintain that liberty for as many people as possible and really make theft illegal once and for all.

So let me ask you this. If people are rationally, what we don’t know what, we don’t necessarily know what force, we don’t necessarily know what force is keeping this from clearing out, except we’re thinking something. It’s the Fed. Because what’s causing an inverted yield curve? It’s that the Federal Reserve has its fingers on the short term rates through the New York trading desk. They have an ability to control the interest rate, and that’s why they peg it between 5.25 and 5.7, or whatever it is. And they have these traders that are constantly manipulating the short term bond market to keep it within that rate.

So when you have all these bureaucrats that are messing around with the market, with the short term market, then an inverted yield curve doesn’t mean that the economy, or the productive capacity of the economy is expecting anything. They’re just being stepped on and then responding to that, being stepped on in some way to squeeze a profit out of it. Okay. And so when that unwinds, that is where the, that’s where one of the big crashes occurs. Correct. Because everyone’s caught. Everyone’s caught in this deep, deep basis, and I think they have to keep it going. Right.

You can’t just, you can’t just do it once. You have to keep doing the basis trade over and over and over again. You have to get deeper and deeper and deeper into the basis trade. So you get further and further down the hole and then suddenly they just, you know, they rip the cord and you’re stuck with your pants down. Yeah. Why would you get involved in that if you know that’s going to happen? Unless it’s just that, you know, you’re going to be bailed out. It has to be that they know they’re going to be bailed out and they are always bailed out.

Okay, that’s it. Okay, that explains it. Is rational after all. Yeah. Well, if you have the CEO of this huge firm that has access to trillions of dollars in the repo market, and they’re like, well, you can make $0.34 every time you do this. And if you do it a billion times, you can make 34 billion cents, like, in a month, why not do it? And it was like, well, I mean, you could lose your entire firm. Oh, whatever. They’re just going to give me the money later anyway, and I have to make money now because I have these clients and if I don’t, if I don’t, you know, make money for them, I’m going to go out of business and then I’m not going to be in Wall street anymore.

And what am I going to do? I’m going to be, you know, my marriage is down the drain. This is all I have in my life. So I’m just going to do this stupid thing. I see. Okay, so this is. This is a desperate move for profits from zombie companies, from zombie banks. It’s a very easy thing to do. And it’s like staring you, like, right in the face. It’s like if a prostitute is, like, right in front of your face and, you know, okay, you can resist, fine, but some people just won’t. Yeah, that’s true.

That’s true. All right, final question. And this ties it all in together. Why? Why do men. Why does man constantly try to play God? Because he’s afraid of death. Like I said, once you see the abyss looming in front of you, you’re like, why on earth did you do that, you fools? And so I’m. I’m led to the conclusion that they’re either very dumb or very evil. I don’t think there’s much of a difference, really. Okay, I guess there is. I mean, you could say, like, mao wasn’t trying to kill 45 million people. He just kind of did.

It just happened. Yeah, it just happened that way. Like, oops the same thing with COVID And I’m sure some people in Pfizer were, like, really trying to help, but they’re dumb. Yeah. Do you think Janet Yellen, like, goes to bed every night thinking, like, what have I done? Or she. Do you think she’s just like, you know, I’m a very educated person. I deserve to be well compensated for my, the wisdom that I. That I spew out every day? No, I don’t think she has any remorse or any guilt. I think these people are so far into the illusions that they’ve built for themselves that they can’t.

They don’t even have the ability to see what’s wrong with it. And if something’s wrong with the God, is that part of the God complex as you just, you build this, like, wall of illusion around yourself? I read any more psychology than economics, but you seem to talk about this stuff, sir. I don’t know. I mean, I find that. That atheists, people that really think there is no God at all and nothing, and there’s no moral imperative for anything. They are the. They’re chiefly the ones that try to play God. And we see that with, you know, gender reassignment surgery or whatever it is.

And I think they can become whatever they want and that they can control. It’s like, you know, just like the derivative ladder of money. The derivative, like a derivative of the God complex is, you know, body mutilation. And it just keeps getting worse and worse and worse until the point where they’re going to make sex changes, you know, mandatory on everyone. I was reading this on Eugepius. He has a sub stack and I highly recommend his substack. He was saying that there was this crazy woman in this german paper called Tez that was saying that heterosexual sex is unnatural because ph levels in the vaginal canal are different from the ph levels of sperm.

And so there should be a mandatory tax on all men who engage in straight sex. And it should be so you should have a tax on sex and gay sex should be subsidized or whatever. You’re getting into these totally insane things that just keep getting nuttier and nuttier. We’re still at the point where I guess mutilating ourselves is not mandatory. But with people with a God complex, it can be. And if Keith Weiner is correct, we’re going to have to get to the point where sex changes become mandatory before the dollar collapses. And I’m not going to make it that far.

I’m sorry. I’m just going to. I’m going to peace out before then. So I hope Keith is wrong. Does that. Do you think. Would you consider. Would you consider the correction. A form of divine wrath? It’s a naturally programmed form of divine wrath. I mean, the way that I read biblical stories, not saying that they didn’t literally happen. Some I think did, some I think didn’t. I mean, it gets into a whole complicated conversation, but I. But I think it’s a narrative that we can understand in story form for how the system of divine justice actually works.

The flood happened because the system of divine reward and punishment wasn’t completely functional until then. And then God decides later that, okay, whenever they really start screwing up, I’m going to go in there, I’m going to stop it before they get too far. I’m going to try to keep them within a certain range, like the Fed tries to control interest rates so that they can’t destroy themselves too much. And then hopefully, we’ll hang on to this kernel that understands things, and then it’ll blossom from there. So it’s natural consequences. When you do certain things, certain other things happen naturally.

And you can say God is behind them either as a conscious force or as a way that he programmed reward and punishment to operate. Physics of the universe, I guess. Yeah. All right. On that note, I guess I want to end a little more positive than divine wrath. We have any positive things to end on? Well, the system is going to. I think we’re. We think the system’s going to blow up before Keith Weiner’s apocalypse. So our apocalypse is a lot better than his. Yeah, that’s positive. Yeah, apocalypse now. It should be. It should be like a call to party.

There you go. All right. Take care, Rafi. I’ll see you next month. Actually, I’ll see you probably sooner when we interview another guest, but. Okay, cool. God has set before you this day his laws of life and good and death and evil. Those who will not live by the law shall die by the law.
[tr:tra].

See more of Rafi Farber on their Public Channel and the MPN Rafi Farber channel.

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