➡ The article discusses the potential for a significant increase in bond yields and gold prices, indicating a decrease in the purchasing power of major currencies. It suggests that silver, often overlooked, could become a key indicator of financial system changes due to its dual role as a monetary and industrial metal. The article also highlights the increasing debt problem, weakening faith in sovereign debt, and the growing demand for physical assets like silver. It concludes by suggesting that silver could be on the brink of a major revaluation, driven by these financial pressures.
➡ The bond market is under stress due to rising yields and a shift away from the dollar, which could lead to a financial system collapse. If yields rise too quickly, markets could break, but if central banks intervene, they risk devaluing the currency. This situation forces a choice between allowing financial damage or further devaluing the currency, which could lead to a loss of confidence in the system. As a result, investors may turn to real assets like silver, which could see a significant increase in value due to these systemic pressures.
➡ The article discusses the potential financial crisis due to the weakening of the US dollar and the increasing debt. It suggests that the Federal Reserve may need to intervene to support the financial system, which could further devalue the dollar. The article also highlights the rising value of gold and silver as a response to this situation, with central banks accumulating these assets as a safeguard against unreliable fiat currencies. It concludes by suggesting that silver, despite being overlooked, could become a significant asset due to its limited supply and increasing demand.
➡ The global demand for silver is increasing due to its essential role in industries like solar energy, advanced electronics, and medical technologies. This demand is colliding with a limited supply, as silver production can’t easily expand. Additionally, silver serves as a monetary hedge, increasing its value during economic instability. Central banks, particularly in Asia, are accumulating gold as a safety measure, but the supply is limited and can’t meet everyone’s needs.
➡ The article discusses the current state of gold and silver markets, suggesting that they are undervalued due to factors like price suppression and lack of speculative interest. It also highlights the potential for a significant increase in gold and silver prices due to market pressures such as bond market stress, currency pressure, and strong physical demand. The article suggests that silver, in particular, could see a rapid increase in value due to its dual role as a monetary hedge and a critical industrial resource. However, it also warns of potential market crashes and the end of the fiat currency system, which could drastically affect the value of these precious metals.
➡ When money starts to feel unsafe in certain areas, it doesn’t disappear but moves to safer places. This is where precious metals like silver come in. Silver, being a smaller market, can see big price changes with less money. If multiple factors come together, like stocks facing pressure and currencies being diluted, silver can act as a safe place and its price can rise quickly. This can surprise many as large amounts of money can move quickly when they feel at risk.

And what you’re going to get is you’re going to get far higher bond yields and far higher gold prices. The gold prices reflecting far less purchasing power for the dollar, far less purchasing power for the euro and also the yen. We are facing the end game for the fiat currency system. You’re watching Silver News Daily. Subscribe for more. Something enormous is beginning to unfold in the silver market. And almost nobody is looking at it the right way. Most people are still watching silver as if it is just another commodity, just another metal drifting up and down with sentiment, headlines and short term chart patterns.

But that is not what this moment is about. This moment is about pressure building underneath the entire financial system. And silver is sitting right at the point where all of that pressure could suddenly express itself in one violent move. Because when you step back and look at what is happening, you start to see that this is far bigger than one metal rallying. Bond yields are rising across the developed world. Faith in sovereign debt is weakening. Currency purchasing power is being quietly destroyed in real time. Gold is already screaming that something is deeply wrong. And silver, after all of this tension, all of this suppression and all of this neglect, is now sitting in the exact kind of position where it can go from overlooked to unstoppable with shocking speed.

That is what makes this so dangerous for anyone who is not paying attention. Silver does not usually move in a slow, polite, easily manageable way. When the market finally wakes up to it, it lags. It coils, it frustrates, it convinces people nothing is happening. And then when the switch flips, it starts moving in a way that leaves people stunned. That is why this conversation matters right now. Because Alistair McLeod is not talking about some random price target pulled out of thin air. He is laying out a chain reaction. A breakdown in confidence in debt, a deeper loss of trust in fiat currencies.

Gold moving higher as the monetary alarm bell. Then silver stepping into the picture as both a monetary metal and an industrial metal at the exact moment the broader system starts to fracture. And when you understand that chain reaction, you realize this is not just about whether silver can rise. It is. It is about. It’s about why. Silver could be one of the clearest signals that the market is entering a completely different phase. Look at the contradictions staring the world in the face. On one side, you have governments drowning in debt, central banks trapped, currencies being stretched further and further, and investors trying to pretend the old rules still work.

On the other side, you have hard assets quietly regaining their monetary relevance, physical demand staying strong, and silver continuing to hold a strategic role in industry. At the same time, that combination is explosive. Because silver is not just competing for safe haven flows. It is also being pulled by real world demand, by tightening availability, by industrial necessity, by investor underexposure, and by the simple fact that if confidence in the financial system starts to crack, there are not many places left for capital to hide. And that is where the opportunity and the shock begin to meet. Because the mainstream still does not treat silver like a market that could redefine itself overnight.

It still treats it like an afterthought. And that kind of blindness is exactly what tends to exist before a major repricing. What makes this even more important is that silver is not entering this setup from a place of euphoria. This is not a market where everybody is already all in and celebrating. This is not the final stage of some overcrowded mania where the move has already happened. If anything, the opposite is true. The market has been consolidating, it has been shaking people out, it has been creating confusion. It has been moving in a way that makes people question whether the real breakout is ever coming.

And that is often how these moments look before they become obvious. While most eyes are fixed on the latest ceasefire headline, the next inflation print or the next central bank comment, the deeper story is still building underneath. The debt problem has not gone away. The currency problem has not gone away. The physical demand story has not gone away. The structural role of silver in an increasingly electrified world has not gone away. If anything, all of it is becoming more intense at the same time. So the real question is not whether silver can have a good week or a good month.

The real question is whether silver is now standing at the edge of a much bigger revaluation, driven by forces most investors still refuse to connect. What happens when bond markets start sending a warning? What happens when gold begins reflecting declining purchasing power in major currencies? What happens when silver, already tight, already strategic, already historically capable of explosive catch up moves, starts attracting serious capital in the middle of a broader monetary loss of confidence? That is where this becomes more than just a bullish silver thesis. That is where it becomes a window into the broader market itself.

And once you see that, you can start to understand why what happens next in silver may not just surprise people, it may completely redefine how they understand the financial system. The others being Germany, France, the UK and Japan. Now, the reason this is important is that the failure, if you like, of the Iran situation from the point of view of America is undermining the overall position of the dollar we can see on the macro level, if you like, that the petro yuan is replacing the petrodollar. We can see that the foreign exchange settlements into the yuan do not involve the dollar, which again releases dollars which would otherwise be tied up in the foreign exchange markets.

We can see that Iran is, may not be winning the war, but it really does look as if she can drive America out of the region. She has bombed America’s bases in the friendly nations around the Gulf. And not only that, but she’s insisting that the GCC membership basically tells America to leave on pain of being hit by her really very, very advanced missiles. So that is something that is going on. Meanwhile, President Trump is chickening out. I think it’s the best way to put it. He has obviously sent this list of 15 demands to Iran with a view to pretending to negotiate, but they’re not serious negotiations.

And at the same, by dispatching elite forces and marines to the area, he is threatening Iran. But he would be very unwise to actually deploy them because the, if you like, the consequences in terms of loss of American lives would actually be catastrophic. That is absolutely clear. So this situation is really bluff, bluff, bluff. America is losing the Iran war and this has enormous consequences. It does mean that America is going to effectively withdraw from the Asian continent. She’s obviously got a presence in Japan, South Korea, and also potentially in some of the Southeast Asian nations who are in fact, aligning themselves more with China in terms of trade.

So one way, when you really start digging into what Alistair McLeod is pointing at, everything begins with the bond market, because that is where the stress is first becoming visible and more importantly, where it can no longer be hidden. Right now, across the G7 economies, bond yields are not just rising quietly in the background. They are breaking into new high ground, which means something very specific bending is happening beneath the surface. Investors are beginning to demand more compensation to hold government debt. And that only happens when confidence starts to erode. Because at the core of the entire financial system sits sovereign debt.

It is supposed to be the safest asset in the world, the foundation everything else is built on. But if that foundation starts to crack, then everything resting on top of it begins to wobble. Think about what rising yields actually mean in this context. It is not just a number moving on a chart. It is the market saying that holding dollars, euros or yen in bond form is becoming riskier, not safer. And that risk is not just about default. It is about purchasing power. If inflation continues to eat away at currencies, if deficits continue to expand and if governments keep issuing more and more debt into a market that is already saturated, then investors are going to demand higher returns just to stand still.

That is why McLeod is warning that once key levels are broken, yields do not just creep higher. This they can accelerate violently. The move from 1% to 5% was already a shock to the system. But the idea that yields could push toward 10% is something the current financial structure simply is not designed to handle. And this is where it starts to cascade into everything else. Because higher bond yields are not isolated. They are deeply interconnected with equities, currencies, and liquidity itself. If yields surge, borrowing costs rise across the board, governments struggle to finance deficits, corporations face higher refinancing costs.

And equity valuations, which have been built on years of cheap money, suddenly look completely detached from reality. This is why McLeod frames it as a potential collapse trigger. Because once yields reach a certain point, they begin to actively break the system rather than just reflect it. Stocks can no longer justify their valuations, credit markets tighten, and liquidity begins to dry up. It is not a slow adjustment, it is a chain reaction. Now, layer on top of that, the geopolitical backdrop that is accelerating this process. The shift away from the dollar, the growing use of alternative settlement systems, and the reluctance of foreign buyers to continue funding US Debt all feed directly into rising yields.

Because if fewer external players are willing to absorb that debt, then domestic markets have to carry more of the burden or yields have to rise to attract new buyers. And neither of those outcomes is stable. At the same time, countries that once recycled dollars back into US Treasuries are now reconsidering that strategy entirely. That is a fundamental shift, not a temporary one. It changes the demand structure for sovereign debt at the worst possible time, when issuance is exploding. And here is where the real tension builds, because central banks are trapped in the middle of this. If yields rise too far, too fast, they risk breaking markets.

But if they step in to control yields through intervention, through quantitative easing, through liquidity injections, they risk destroying the currency itself. That is the dilemma. There is no clean solution. Either allow the system to deflate and accept widespread financial damage, or step in and support it, which ultimately debases the currency further. And once markets begin to realize that this is the choice, confidence starts to erode even faster, because investors understand that the system cannot stabilize without sacrificing something critical. So when you look at silver through this lens, it stops being a simple supply and demand story and starts becoming a response to systemic pressure.

Because if the bond market is the first crack. Then everything that follows is a consequence of that instability. Rising yields signal stress, stress forces intervention. Intervention weakens currencies and, and weakening currencies push capital toward real assets. That is the chain reaction McLeod is laying out. And it all begins here in the bond market where the warning signs are already flashing, even if most of the world is still choosing to ignore them. Another the dollar is not really being used by anyone. And the moves that the US government has made basically has put off foreigners from buying U.S.

treasuries. Not only that, but they’re a source of liquidity if you like, for the Gulf states. The Gulf states having, I think around about, I did work it out, something like 800 billion invested in financial markets. They’ve obviously got other investments in America as well. So one way and another, what we see is increased risk for the dollar. Now increased risk for the dollar basically means that bond yields should have to rise because from a foreigner’s point of view and also from a US point of view, once they work it out, they will expect, if you like, a decline in the purchasing power of the dollar because of what’s going on, because of the situation in the US economy itself, because of the budget deficit, which looks like continuing to rise.

And on that basis they would expect to have compensation, if you like, increased compensation for holding on to dollars and dollar investments. That is why bond yields are going to rise. The point about that chart is you could see from it that the Yield on the 10 year rose very substantially from around about 1% all the way up to around about 5%. In the wake of the COVID debt expansion, we now have another situation where after consolidating it’s likely to move up and reflect that move in. Now this suggests at the very minimum when we break that 5% yield level, that we’re going to see the 10 year bond yielding anything up to 10% and maybe even more.

So that’s going to be a big shock on markets. It’s a situation which has already been led by other G7s, as I mentioned, four out of the seven of them. And there’s nothing really, I think to stop these yields going considerably higher now with equities in a bubble that’s going to collapse the equity market. So I think what you will see is you will see a substantial, substantial hit to all financial assets when that 10 year bond yield begins to approach the 5% level. Once you understand that the bond market is beginning to fracture, the next layer of this story becomes impossible to ignore.

And that is the currency itself. Because currencies are not collapsing in isolation. They are being slowly eroded as a direct consequence of everything we just talked about. Rising debt, rising yields, and central banks being forced into impossible decisions all lead to one outcome over time, and that is the steady destruction of purchasing power. And this is exactly what Alistair McLeod is warning about when he talks about the end game of the fiat system. Because what we are witnessing is not a normal cycle anymore. It is a system reaching its limits. Think about the position central banks are now in.

If they allow bond yields to continue rising unchecked, they risk triggering a full scale financial collapse. Governments cannot sustain higher borrowing costs indefinitely. Corporations begin to default under pressure, and asset prices start to unwind rapidly. But if they step in, if they restart aggressive money creation, if they suppress yields through intervention, then they flood the system with currency at the exact moment confidence is already weakening. And that is where the real damage begins. Because currencies do not. Do not fail all at once. They fail gradually through dilution, through loss of trust, and through the quiet realization that holding cash is no longer preserving value.

This is why McLeod emphasizes that what we are heading toward is not just higher inflation in the traditional sense, but a deeper repricing of currencies against real assets. Because when investors begin to understand that their purchasing power is being eroded, not by accident, but by necessity, behavior starts to change. Foreign holders of dollars begin to question why they should continue holding assets that are being diluted. Domestic institutions begin to demand higher returns just to compensate for currency risk. And individuals, even if they do not fully understand the mechanics, begin to feel the effects in everyday life as costs rise and savings lose value.

Now take that a step further and look at what happens globally if every major currency is facing the same structural problem. If the dollar, the euro, and the yen are all being pressured at the same time, then this is not a relative shift where one currency strengthens against another. This is a systemic decline in fiat purchasing power across the board. And in that kind of environment, capital does not rotate neatly between currencies. It looks for something outside the system entirely. That is where gold begins to rise. Not because it is outperforming in the traditional sense, but because it is measuring the decline of currencies themselves.

And if gold is already reflecting that shift, then silver is sitting right behind it, waiting for that same realization to spread. But here is where it becomes even more explosive. For silver specifically, unlike gold, which is already recognized as a monetary asset by central banks and institutions, silver is still largely treated as secondary, almost an afterthought that means it has not yet absorbed the full weight of this monetary repricing. It has not yet seen the kind of institutional rush that gold experiences when confidence breaks. And that creates a gap, a disconnect between what, what is happening in the system and how silver is being valued.

Because once that perception shifts, once silver is no longer seen as just an industrial metal, but as part of the same monetary escape valve as gold, the move does not happen gradually, it accelerates. And this is why the currency story is so critical to understanding what comes next. Because silver’s potential move is not being driven by a single factor. It is being driven by the convergence of multiple forces all pointing in the same direction. Currency debasement, loss of trust, capital searching for safety, and a market that is structurally unprepared for a surge in demand. When, when those elements begin to align, silver stops behaving like a normal asset and starts behaving like a pressure release.

And that is exactly the kind of setup where small shifts in perception can trigger massive moves in price. Because the underlying problem is not temporary. It is systemic. And it is getting worse, not better. Centers like the Cayman Islands, where offshore US Funds basically do their that carry trade business. So this is not good news. And I mean, I don’t think it’ll necessarily stop at 10%, because in essence, what we’re seeing, Donegan, is we’re seeing the end of the fiat currency system. Now, before this invasion of Iran or before the attack on thought that this might take several years, I don’t know.

I mean, you could only guess really whether it would be three, four, five years, something like that, where the dollar goes down and probably goes down and fits and starts, recovers a bit and so on. But now the pace of that has been speeded up very, very considerably. And of course, as soon as you find that financial markets in the United States start going into reverse, then the Fed will have a duty to support, to support the whole lot. And that will further undermine the dollar. So what you will see is debt destruction. But instead of the debt actually being destroyed by debts going bad, businesses going bankrupt, financial intermediaries going bankrupt, what you will find is you will find that the value of the medium in which these debts are denominated, in other words, the currency, the dollar, that will go down, effectively wiping out the value of the debt.

So it’s a choice either the Fed stands there and says, this is a problem which is too big to handle, we’re going to stand back, sort yourself out, which I think is extremely unlikely, or Alternatively, the Fed goes in and acts and does whatever QE is necessary to fund a rescue of the entire financial system and the underlying economy. And that will just destroy the dollar. And of course, the other G7 countries are in exactly the same position now. Once currencies start losing that credibility, gold is always, always the first asset to respond. And that is exactly what we are seeing right now.

Gold is not rising randomly, it is reflecting a shift in trust. And central banks, particularly outside the west, have been accumulating it at record levels, not because they expect a short term trade, but because they are preparing for a world where fiat currencies are no longer reliable stores of value. That is a critical signal because these are the same institutions that once relied almost entirely on sovereign debt and now they are quietly rotating away from it. But here is where the real opportunity begins to form. Because gold moves first, but silver follows differently. Silver does not just track gold, it amplifies it.

It waits while gold absorbs the initial wave of monetary demand. And then when the realization spreads further into the market, silver begins to catch up, often at a much faster and more aggressive pace. And right now, that gap between gold strength and silver’s positioning is still very visible. Because despite everything happening in the macro environment, silver still has not seen, still has not seen the kind of broad institutional participation that gold has. It is still under owned, still overlooked, and still treated as secondary. And that creates a very specific setup. If gold continues to reflect weakening currencies and more capital begins to move into hard assets, silver becomes the next logical destination, but with far less supply available and far less positioning already in place.

So what you end up with is a market where the monetary signal has already been triggered by gold. But the explosive phase, the phase where momentum accelerates and attention floods in, is still sitting just ahead. And that is exactly where silver begins to take center stage. Well, yeah, they have a real problem because you’ve got to sort of think, well, if we sell dollars in U.S. treasury debt, what do we buy? Because if you sell something, you buy something. And the answer under these circumstances of extreme, extreme volatility, risk and all the rest of it is you get back into your own accounting units.

You know, if you’re running portfolios and you are accounting in euros, then you sell everything to buy euros. It doesn’t matter how bad the Euro is, because your risk pre position is just holding euros. That’s the key thing you could euro cash. Your portfolio is not going to go down if you just hold domestic Eurocash wherever you are. Yeah, absolutely. So you know, this is why when you see major bear markets you find that international investment reverses and you know, it only sort of comes back when you get a bull market. And I mean we’ve seen foreigners have, I mean on the last tick figures which I looked at on this particular issue, they had 22 trillion DOL invested in US equities.

Now I don’t think they’ll realize 22 trillion by the time they get out. They’ll be lucky if they have 5 trillion. I mean this is the thing, they’re not going to go and buy their own equities. I mean the interesting thing is that Americans don’t have very much investment in other markets. And where they do have investment in other markets it’s in ADR form. So it’s not as if there’s a net thing. If you have flows out of the dollar, you’re not going to get flows into the dollar for the reason that Americans already they owe their foreign investments in dollars in ADRs.

So it’s a one way currency situation really. And the decline I think actually when it starts could be very, very rapid. I mean this is a crash in the making. And I don’t know whether it starts with the dollar, I don’t know whether it starts with Japan. I put a note out this morning comparing the Japanese market to Wiley E. Coyote who you know in the cartoons would chase the roadrunner, run off the cliff and do a double take before he suddenly realizes he’s got air under him before he actually crashes. I can see that scenario for all of the G7 but it’s particularly acute in the case of Japan which is very much directly affected by the loss of energy from.

But this is where things become even more interesting because despite all of these signals lining up, silver is still being largely ignored by the very prick participants who usually drive major moves. If you look at the data, speculative interest in the west is still extremely low with positioning sitting near multi decade lows. That is not what you see at the top of a market. That is what you see before a major shift begins. It means the usual wave of momentum driven capital has not even entered yet. At the same time, physical demand is telling a completely different story.

In places like China, demand for both gold and silver remains incredibly strong to the point where supply is being rationed and access is becoming more restricted. That disconnect is critical because it shows that while paper markets in the west remain quiet, the underlying physical market is tightening. And when those two worlds collide, when financial demand meets real world Scarcity price moves can become very aggressive very quickly. What makes this setup even more powerful is that silver sits in a unique position compared to most assets. It is not just a monetary medal waiting for investment demand. It it is also tied directly into industrial systems that cannot function without it.

So while investors are underexposed, real consumption continues in the background, quietly reducing available supply. That creates a situation where there is very little margin for a surge in demand because the market is already being pulled in multiple directions at once. And this is why the lack of attention is not a weakness, it is actually part of the setup. Because when a market is crowded, moves tend to be slower and more contained. But when a market is under owned, underappreciated and structurally tight at the same time, any shift in sentiment can have an outsized impact. Silver does not need everyone to pile in at once.

It just needs enough capital to recognize what is already happening beneath the surface. And that is when the imbalance starts to reveal itself. You know, the Persian Gulf and the closure and restrictions of the Straits of Hormuz and you know, when you have the bank of Japan’s reference races around about 3/4 of 1%, only 3/4 of 1% and an inflation rate which will rise quite significantly because it’s not just energy, it’s everything else. Energy feeds into everything else in terms of prices. Then on that basis, I mean you’re going to see a real crash in Japan.

And we’re talking about a government whose debt to GDP ratio is 255%. I mean this is a massive, massive problem. And again, the only way in which this is going to be resolved is by a collapse, if you like, in the value of bonds and also in the currency. And if you look at the chart on the currency, once that breaks through the 160 yen rate, the dollar like it goes up, in other words, the yen’s going down. I think you’re going towards 200 yen to the dollar quite quickly. And just think, well that’s going to do everything.

This is a very, very dangero. In the past you have cautioned us that international holders, specifically non G7 have been grabbing for gold and other precious metals hand over fist. Something to the tune of more in the last 60 years net purchases more in the last four years than the previous 60 years combined. For the last two years in a row. The end of year survey by the World Gold Council surveying the sovereign level, in other words the country level managers of assets has shown the reason given for their insatiable appetite for gold recently to ensure against catastrophic monetary risk and because of a breakdown of trust and insure against volatility.

Can you talk to us about. Because you just mentioned the reflex for each country to revert back into its own domestic cash in terms of safe haven. But if all the fiat currencies of the world are like a team of skydivers and they’re all falling in unison, some to varying degrees, pulling in their arms isn’t going to stop their drop towards the hard ground. Talk to us about the role you anticipate gold has been playing and will continue to play. And in what form in this next chapter. Yeah, well, the central banks, many of whom have seen this coming, I mean particularly the Asian hegemons, they’ve seen this coming for a long time and they’ve also informed the entire global South.

Now, when you zoom out even further, the physical side of the silver market starts to reveal just how tight things really are. And this is where the story shifts from being theoretical to yeseopgo. It is something much more tangible because while western markets are still focused on charts and short term sentiment, countries like China are aggressively pulling metal off the global market at an accelerating pace. Imports have surged to multi year highs with hundreds of tons being absorbed in just the first couple of months of the year. And that is not speculative activity. That is real physical demand taking supply out of circulation.

And this matters far more than most people realize, because silver is not a market with deep flexible inventories that can easily respond to sudden demand spikes. It is already running in a structural deficit where more silver is being consumed than produced year after year. On top of that, a large portion of silver supply is not even mined directly. It is at byproduct of other mining operations, which means production cannot simply ramp up because the price moves higher. Supply is slow, rigid and heavily constrained, while demand is becoming more aggressive and more strategic. Now layer in what is happening with regulation and trade flows and the situation becomes even tighter.

With China introducing stricter controls on silver exports. The global market is no longer operating as one fluid system. Instead it is starting to fragment with different regions competing for access to limited physical supply. That kind of fragmentation reduces liquidity and increases volatility because once supply chains become restricted, price discovery becomes far more sensitive to even small shifts in demand. So what you end up with is a market where physical silver is quietly being locked away, inventories are tightening and the ability to respond to new demand is extremely limited. And this is happening at the same time as the monetary case for silver is strengthening.

That combination is what makes this Phase so important because it means that if investment demand begins to rise in a meaningful way, it is not entering a loose, well supplied market. It is entering a market that is already under pressure, already constrained and already being pulled in multiple directions. And that is exactly the kind of environment where price moves stop being gradual and start becoming explosive. This is coming. So the result is that central banks around the world, with the exception, exception of America and the European nations, I mean the Brits, the French, the Germans and so on, have been accumulating gold as a greater proportion of their overall reserves.

So that makes sense. Now I would draw a distinction between the relationship between individual fiat currencies and the relationship with gold, which in everybody’s common law is real money. There is not enough gold around, if you like, for everybody to get out of a foreign currency and use gold as safety. And also in pure accounting terms, of course, going into gold for a fund manager actually does provide risk because it could go up, it could go down from his point of view. So I think gold is almost sort of standing aside from this and at the moment it’s being driven by other factors.

We’ve had a very, very substantial shakeout in gold and silver since January. The January peaks on that basis. You would have thought that first of all speculators would leave the market, but they weren’t really in there in the first place. There was very little speculation, actually. Secondly, you would think that demand, if you like, for physical gold and silver would decline because the steam has taken out of the market, but not at all. I mean, I don’t know what you’re seeing in America, but in certainly what’s going on in China is still very, very strong demand for gold and silver.

The banks are rationing gold, physical gold deliveries. And only this morning I saw that the Chinese Construction bank, instead of doing the rationing like a sort of nine o’ clock in the morning. If you’re there at nine o’ clock in the morning, literally by one minute past nine, it’s all gone. That’s been the situation. But what the China Construction bank is doing is now running a lottery system. You pay your money in to buy gold and it’s like getting a lottery ticket. You may or may not get it, you probably won’t get it. I mean, the point about it, which I think is desperately important to understand, is that the Chinese do understand that gold is money.

We don’t. We’ve forgotten that in the west there is also a very, very strong savings culture in Japan. I mean, overall savings are reckoned to be about something like 40 plus percent. But if you strip out the industrial investment, you’re left with household investment somewhere between 30 and 35%. That is, in dollar terms, an accumulation of between 5 and 6 trillion dollars every year. So where does it go? Well, property’s dead, that’s of no interest. The stock market is of limited interest. Let’s face it, it’s only recently just about doubled. But really that’s just catching up with what was going on elsewhere.

What they’ve been doing is, I mean, the banks have been holding onto deposits up with innovative means of trying to produce, you know, a better rate. But what really separates silver from everything else is that it is not just riding on monetary fear. It is being driven by a structural shift in the global economy itself. Because unlike gold, which is primarily a store of value, silver is embedded in the systems that are defining the next phase of growth. Solar energy, electrification, advanced electronics, medical technologies. All of these sectors depend on silver in ways that are extremely difficult to replace.

And that demand is not slowing down, it is accelerating. We are now in a world where governments are pushing aggressively toward energy transitions, where solar capacity is expanding at record levels, and where electrification is becoming a core part of economic strategy. Silver sits right at the center of that transformation. It is not optional, it is essential. And that creates a constant baseline demand that does not disappear just because prices move higher. In fact, in many cases, demand is relatively inelastic, meaning industries are forced to keep buying even as costs rise. At the same time, this industrial demand is colliding with the investment narrative we have already been building, because silver is one of the few assets that acts as both a growth metal and a monetary hedge at the same time.

When economies expand, silver demand rises through industry. When confidence breaks, silver demand rises through investment. That dual role is incredibly powerful because it means silver does not rely on one single environment to perform. It has multiple engines pushing it forward simultaneously. And this is where the imbalance becomes even more pronounced. You have a metal that is critical to the future of technology and energy, a supply chain that cannot easily expand, and a growing awareness that silver also serves as protection against the very monetary instability we are seeing on fire fold. Those forces do not cancel each other out.

They compound. Industrial users are pulling from the same pool of supply that investors will eventually turn to when the monetary side accelerates. So what you are looking at is not just strong demand, but competing demand. And when that kind of competition emerges in a market that is already tight, already under owned, and already structurally constrained, it creates the conditions for A move that goes far beyond what most people consider normal. Because at that point, silver is no longer just responding to the market, it is being pulled in multiple directions at once. And that is when the real pressure begins to build to interest.

But at the same time, the People’s bank of China has been reducing its interest rates. So the returns on the bank deposit are very low. But all these banks offer a gold accumulation account, which can run alongside your deposit account. So for a minimum payment of something like 500 yuan, which is less than $100, you can open a gold accumulation account and you can put in a standing order to transfer from your deposit account to your gold accumulation account so much per month. You can see just how enormous, with net savings of, you know, sort of in the order of five to six trillion dollars every year, what an enormous impact this is going to have on gold.

And we’re seeing it already. We really are seeing it already. Now, these banks don’t take delivery out of the Shanghai Gold Exchange. It remains within the vaulting system. So we don’t actually see how much gold is actually behind these accounts. I don’t know whether they’re 100% backed or not. I have no idea at all. I mean, if they run under normal banking prices, under a normal banking system, then they would probably have a leverage position insofar as they would back the position with about 10, 15% of gold or something like that. Now, that would be the unallocated way of doing it.

But having said that, that only rarely works with credit in your own currency, where everything is measured in your own currency. So there is a shortage of gold. It’s as simple as that, and it’s disappearing. And I think that to some extent the price in China on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and also on the futures exchange is actually being set in the West. So we’re suppressing the price in our paper markets, which is leading to price suppression there. If that price suppression wasn’t there, I would fully expect gold and silver to be far higher. I wouldn’t speculate how much, but they would be far higher.

So that, I think, is the background for gold and silver. The other thing I would mention, which is interesting, is the complete lack of speculative interest in the West. Excuse me, I’m getting over cold. That if you look at open interest on Comex in silver, it’s the lowest it has been for more than 20 years. If you look at open interest in gold now, when you bring this back to where the market actually is today, the timing element starts to stand out. Because silver is not breaking down, it is compressing. Prices have been hovering in that mid $70 range, pulling back from earlier highs, moving sideways, frustrating both bulls and bears, and creating this sense of uncertainty about what comes next.

But this kind of price action is not unusual before a major move. It is often where the market is absorbing pressure and resetting before the next leg. You can see it in the structure. Support levels are holding higher, lows have been forming, and momentum indicators are sitting in neutral territory. Rather than showing exhaustion, that tells you the market is not collapsing under pressure, it is stabilizing. At the same time, resistance levels are clearly defined, meaning that once those levels are broken, there is very little in the way of stopping momentum from accelerating quickly toward higher targets.

It is a coiled setup, not a resolved one. And when you combine that with everything happening in the macro environment, the setup becomes even more significant. Because while silver is consolidating, the underlying drivers we have been discussing are not cooling off. Bond market stress is still building. Currency pressure is still increasing. Physical demand remains strong. Industrial consumption is not slowing. So you have a situation where the price is pausing, but the forces behind it are continuing to build. This is why consolidation phases like this can be misleading. To the surface level observer, it looks like indecision or weakness, but in reality it can be a transfer of positioning from weak hands to stronger hands, from short term traders to longer, longer term holders.

And once that transition is complete, the next move tends to be far more decisive. So what you are really watching here is not just a range bound market. You’re watching a compression of volatility ahead of expansion. And in a market like silver, where moves tend to be sharp and fast, once momentum kicks in, that expansion phase can happen very quickly. The longer the compression lasts, the more powerful the breakout tends to be. And that is exactly why this moment matters more than it appears on the surface. It is lower than it has been since around about 2004.

These are by any measure heavily oversold markets. When we say oversold, what we really mean is that the level of speculative interest is zero, just about zero. Now, I know there are positions, but they are pretty firm positions. And any move to reduce prices from here is likely to be met with buying. So overall, the situation now I think is ripe for a pretty good move in gold, I would say. There’s one little caveat that I would put in all this, and that is that if I’m right about the Wiley E. Coyote situation hitting Japan first, or maybe someone else first, particularly America, then markets are going to crash in A market crash.

In all that pandemonium, there will be a markdown on gold. I wouldn’t bank on it. I would hope for it because as a stacker, my goodness, what an opportunity. But it would be driving things in completely the wrong way. And the reason I think this could happen is that recently I’ve noticed that the market has been marking gold up when the US treasury yield drops a little bit, marking it up when the dollar’s trade weighted drops a little bit and vice versa. This is just nonsense. It’s complete nonsense. It’s a complete misunderstanding of the role of gold compared with credit, which of course is really represented by fiat currencies.

It is, if you like the macroeconomic establishment’s response to market developments, which just shows their ignorance, real ignorance about the relative position of gold, what gold’s function is in a monetary system. They should be looking at the risk in the whole system. And what you’re going to get is you’re going to get far higher bond yields and far higher gold prices. The gold price is reflecting far less purchasing power for the dollar, far less purchasing power for the euro and also the yen. We are facing the end game for the fiat currency system. And unless that is stopped, and I can’t see how it will be stopped, that basically means that these fiat currencies become completely valueless, which in gold terms means it’ll be priced in these currencies, gold will be infinite in terms of price, but in value, probably not too far away from where we are here.

One of the things you mentioned along the way there is this counterintuitive knee jerk reaction and this is where everything finally comes together. Because what we are looking at is not just a potential rally in silver, it is a convergence of forces that all point in the same direction at the same time. You have a bond market under pressure, signaling that the foundation of the financial system is starting to crack. You have currencies being steadily debased as central banks are forced into impossible choices. You have gold already moving as the early warning signal, reflecting that loss of trust.

And then you have silver sitting right at the intersection of all of it. Still under owned, still structurally tight and still not fully repurposed, it repriced for what is unfolding. At the same time, the physical market is tightening, industrial demand is accelerating and global players are quietly accumulating real assets, while much of the western world remains focused on short term noise. That imbalance cannot last forever because once capital begins to shift in a meaningful way, once silver is no longer treated as secondary but as essential both as a monetary hedge and as a critical industrial resource.

The move does not happen gradually. It happens fast. And it happens in a way that forces the market to reprice very quickly. And that is the key takeaway here. Silver’s path to new record breaking highs is not built on hype. It is built on pressure. Pressure in debt markets, pressure in currencies, pressure in supply, and pressure from demand coming from multiple directions at once. When all of those forces align, silver does what it has always done in moments like this. It moves harder and faster than most expect. And by the time the majority realizes what is happening, the biggest part of the move is already underway.

So the real question is not whether silver can break higher. It is whether the system around it continues to push it in that direction. And right now, all the signs suggest that it is. If you want to stay ahead of these shifts and understand what is really driving the markets, make sure you subscribe and stay informed, because this story is only just beginning and the next phase could unfold very quickly. This is not financial advice, and you should speak to a professional before making any financial decisions. Now, when you connect all of these pieces together, this is where silver stops being just a trade and starts becoming a reflection of something much bigger happening across the entire financial system.

Because if McLeod is right, and we are moving into a phase where bond markets are destabilizing, currencies are losing purchasing power, and central banks are forced into aggressive intervention, then every major asset class is going to be affected at the same time. Stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, everything gets pulled into the same repricing cycle. But silver sits in a very unique position within that environment. Because while equities can collapse under higher yields and bonds lose value as rates rise, silver is one of the few assets that can actually benefit from both sides of that pressure. It responds to monetary instability like.

Like gold. But it also has that industrial backbone we talked about, which means it is not relying on fear alone to move higher. It is being supported by real demand. At the same time, capital begins searching for safety. And this is why the broader market impact matters so much. Because if we do enter a period where foreign capital starts exiting US Assets, where confidence in sovereign debt continues to weaken, and where liquidity becomes more unstable, then the flow of money does not just disappear, it relocates. It looks for assets that are outside the direct line of that risk.

And historically, that is where precious metals come in. But unlike gold, which is already heavily recognized, silver represents a much smaller, tighter market, which means it does not take the same level of capital to create a much larger price move. So what you could be looking at is a scenario where multiple forces converge at once. Equity markets facing pressure from rising yields, bond markets losing their status as safe havens, currencies being diluted through policy responses. And in the middle of that silver acting as both a hedge and a high beta expression of that entire shift. That is why its move can become so aggressive because it is not just reacting to one variable, it is absorbing pressure from all directions at once.

And once that transition begins, once silver starts being viewed not as an afterthought but as a key asset in a shifting financial landscape, the reallocation can happen very quickly because large pools of capital are not designed to move slowly. When risk perception changes they move decisively. And in a market as tight and under owned as silver, that kind of shift does not just push prices higher, it can accelerate them in a way that catches almost everyone off guard.
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