Vince Lanci: Bitcoin Soars Again Update On Gold Silver CTAs | Arcadia Economics

➡ Vince Lanci gives a daily update on gold, silver, and other market news on Arcadia Economics. He talks about how the market is changing and what that means for different investments. He also discusses how China is trying to sell more advanced goods, which could impact the global economy. Lastly, he mentions some big news stories, like an investigation into UnitedHealth and Apple stopping their electric car project.

This type of behavior in this current snapshot you have to obviously stay alert to it, is indicative of a market that will test the new highs. Welcome to the daily gold and silver fix with Vince Lancey, where each morning he brings you the precious metals news and insights to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning, I’m Vince. Let’s get going. All right, there’s the gold fix.

Why bricks, 2024. Nick, 1971. The same thing podcast, why they went to gold. And today’s top mainstream media headlines. Those are here, by the way. The link will be in the post. The markets. Shall we? The dollar is up 29 at one four nine. Bond yells are down 1. 7 at 428 six. The SP is down 19 handles interesting. The VIx is trading 1377 up 35. Gold is down a buck and change at 2028.

Silver is down $0. 09. They’re giving us a break only down nine cents today. Twenty two thirty five. Platinum is down $5. Palladium is down 1587, 920, and 881 in reverse order. Copper is down two and a half cents at 379 and change. Oil is down fifty four cents at seventy eight. Nineteen. Natural gas trading 177 unchanged. And bitcoin is roofing again. Up 3. 7% at 21. I’m sorry.

Up 2100. Points at 59. Spot 217. Ethereum is tracking it up 1. 7%. Okay, there’s no quote today. There’s a word of the day. I think it’s a good word. Infractious, full of twists and turns. As in the market chopped me up. It was anthraxious. I was looking for a word that. Forget it. You get the point. All right, chart of the day. This is a UBS CTA chart, and we’re including that in premium at the bottom with a bunch more slides.

I cannot believe how good this report know. I’m a big fan of the Goldman CTA report. I have not seen a UBS report in a long time. And I got lucky and got one of these. And it’s really good. We’re going to go through it in premium today. Yesterday’s activity in precious metals, the market was disappointing, especially after the previous day in gold. You had that nice little dip and bounce, and yesterday started strong and finished weaker.

So at best, you should be feeling range bound. At worst, you should be feeling, we have a dip that’s coming. Oil. Nothing special there. Choppy, big range. Feels toppy. Us equities. I never have a good feel for that, except to say it’s going up you’re supposed to keep buying. It’s going up until it doesn’t. Bitcoin orders indicate there’s a new all time high on the radar. What do I mean by that? Having a conversation with a trader who looks at things like I do, he’s looking at the order book.

And the order book showed when this ETF started buying the 30 to 40,000 area, a lot of buying there, right? And a lot of selling in the 50 to 60,000 area. But as we rallied, he said the 30 to 40,000 area buying did not chase, but the 50 to 60,000 selling moved up to 70,000. Now, is that necessarily bullish? No. What it means is that a market that was pricing a 30 to 60 or 40 to 50 is now pricing 40 to 70.

So you can imagine this. The market rallies the sellers back off. Now, they could be pigs, and they might get their asses handed to them if the market never gets there. But the buying underneath at 30 to 40,000 is still there. And that means they didn’t chase the market. They’re still there. This is new buying coming in. So there’s new buying coming in extemporaneously to the market. And that’s the institutional buying, I think.

I don’t think that’s retail. This buying down here might be pig retail. That’s buying or market maker type buying. But anyway, this type of behavior in this current snapshot, you have to obviously stay alert to it, is indicative of a market that will test the new highs. Why? Because 67,000 is the high. All the selling is now between 65 and 70. Everybody thinks it’s going to go there.

So the market a good market, and bitcoin is a good market right now for trading. The market will trade two sides, which means if this buying does not go to the market, this 30 to 40,000 buying right, then the market will ratchet up to test how committed these sellers are. And if they move their selling again, the market will run up again and eventually they’ll get hung out the dry if they don’t sell.

But that’s life. All right, today, GDP first revision today news. The Justice Department has launched an antitrust investigation into UnitedHealth owner, the biggest us health insurer, a leading manager of drug benefits, and a sprawling network of doctor groups. Apple is canceling a decade long effort to build an electric car, abandoning one of the most ambitious projects in the history of the company. We have a lot more headlines at the bottom.

I’ll show you those. Okay. But we’re not going to go through them all. We’ve got a lot of them. Geopolitics. China’s southern technology hub, Shenzhen, has rolled out plans for a big expansion of car exports, a plan that is likely to fuel western fears about rising chinese competition for domestic manufacturers. Comment about that? That was a story that I read in markets. That’s a geopolitical story. That’s mercantilism.

See, in a mercantilist economy, you want to sell, export more than you make. And China has been making us shoelaces and plastic toys for the last 20 years. Now they want to make finished goods, advanced goods, and sell them. Now, why do I know that, aside from just paying attention? Because I did an in depth study of silver. Silver is being imported by China, and they’re using that silver to make solar panels that they want to export.

So China is trying to become a high quality value added manufacturer and exporter of goods. All signs of a mercantilist economy. Expect a pushback by us. Expect trade barriers. Expect tariffs. This is the world now. The world is in a non stop trade war. All right, next, democratic and republican congressional leaders struck an optimistic tone that they would avert a government shutdown this weekend. Interesting to have to come out so soon and say that they probably do have one.

And of course, we have more headlines. Ukraine. Someone shot down some drones. It’s bad. All right, what do we have today on premium? That’ll be at the end here. Here’s an excerpt for you, what the UBS model says about CTA positioning commodities. Here’s the gold payoff. There’s a lot more on gold, but I want to give you something here. Bullish metals, both precious and industrials. Bearish oil and coffee.

Okay. Remember we talked about yesterday on that little Goldman pie chart right above it? It says ctas bought oil and sold precious in size in February. Remember that pie chart? The slices really shrunk. We expect two thirds of those flows to reverse in the next two weeks, which is good if they’re right. They’re saying that. One of the things that I was saying was ctas close their positions and I don’t expect them to get back in.

Well, these guys are saying a good chunk of them could get back in and if they get back in, they’ll reverse. So it’s like we sold our metals out. Now let’s get back long. That is important for silver because if the gold guys start to buy, then the silver guys are going to cover. We’ll get to that in a second. But a lot more on that at the bottom.

Gold fed ease, chinese bazooka, CTA flows. What was that about? Okay, what makes gold go up? Fed easing chinese bazooka or CTA flows was I just mentioned silver. What makes silver go up? Gold going up. That’s it. Silver needs gold to remain strong and either a news item to come out or a news item to come out saying everything should go up, or ctas to start buying gold.

If they just start buying gold, they’re going to say, oh, well, shit, I may as well cover my silver, too. And that’s what’s going on. Watch. Copper. It might not lead silver, but it should move concurrently. Bitcoin and eTh. Why new all time highs are on the table. I mentioned that. Stay right here with the premium. Let’s take a look at the charts very quickly. There’s bitcoin, there’s my ridiculous levels that just don’t matter anymore.

But that’s what a good market looks like. Let’s bring this out here a little bit. There we go. All right. So excuse my french, my sniffle there, that’s annoying to look at. But these two lines here, top and lower, those are those two technical lines I told you about. Right? And these two lines here are where I think the market is right now. There’s that here. I’ll stretch this out for you here.

There’s that line. Remember this? This is the algo bind. This is the line I drew underneath it as it was approaching it. And it based there. And now it looks like we’re here now. Why am I drawing this? Because we’re home. It’s a good thing we’re home. We’re home on the range. And this is the meat of the trading. This is an extension. There’s buying here. It was buying here before it was buying here.

Again. They’re selling here. I don’t know if they’ll be selling there again. I think there will be. But this is good. This is healthy. Open interest is basically at zero, guys. And this market is trading 2029. Are you kidding me? There may not be anyone buying it right now, but there’s sure shit ain’t anyone selling it. Silver, same idea. Although it’s a lot more stretched looking. This is Silver’s range.

I’m going to tell you a story and it’s going to be right. This is where silver is happy. Now, we’re not happy when it’s here, but let’s just say silver is happy in here. Silver is happy in here. It doesn’t attract much attention. When it gets above spot, we’re talking about 24, 60. You get your first wave of selling, and that second wave comes in at $26 if we ever get there.

So there will be selling here. I don’t know that there’ll be selling here next time. Because I want you to think about this. If you have this kind of a steep sell off after this, well, that’s because someone went to the market. It wasn’t just longs getting out. It was someone who wanted to sell up here, hitting the market. If that selling is there again when we go up, that’s a bank keeping a lid on it.

It’s my opinion. Now on the downside again, we’re home on the range that goes down here. You want to look for big boys to buy, you want to look for the Indians to buy. You want to look for Russians to buy. I don’t know where they’re going to buy through, but they’re going to buy this if it goes down. So that’s basically it. Oil, right? There’s oil. Oil has done its thing.

It’s also going sideways. If you look at gold and oil together, they’re not exactly, but they’re the same market. Gold is easier to see the buying pattern. Oil is not. So my guess is oil and gold go the same way. This know, they went opposite ways last time. Remember? Gold went up, oil went down. Whatever happens, they might go the same way this time. I don’t know. It’s hard to say.

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