Trump Introduces ERS: Ending Income Tax as We Know It? | Mark Moss

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Summary

➡ Mark Moss talks about how President Donald Trump has proposed a new plan called the External Revenue Service (ERS) to replace income tax. Instead of taxing American citizens, the ERS would collect revenue from foreign trade. This would be a major change to the U.S. taxation system, potentially freeing Americans from income tax. The idea is not new, but a return to past practices, and could have significant global implications.
➡ The main issue isn’t high taxes, but rather that they aren’t effectively funding the government. Countries like Dubai, with no income tax, fund their government through other means, such as VAT and corporate taxes. Despite lower tax rates, these countries thrive due to their pro-business and pro-capitalism stance. However, in the U.S., despite high taxes, the government continues to spend more than it collects, leading to increasing debt.
➡ The US, being a net importer, already faces tariffs and other duties. Despite hurdles in Congress and opposition from tax attorneys, there’s a possibility of replacing income tax with tariffs, as suggested by Trump. However, a 20% tariff on all imported goods would only cover about 15.6% of the government’s total revenue. Regardless of the outcome, expect higher prices due to increased tariffs and lower taxes due to proposed tax cuts.

 

Transcript

Do you hate giving up a big chunk of your paycheck for income taxes? Well, what if I told you that income tax, as we know it, could disappear forever? Well, that’s exactly what the new incoming President Donald Trump is suggesting with the groundbreaking announcement of what he’s calling the External Revenue Service. Now, the plan is to stop taxing American citizens and to start collecting revenue from foreign trade instead. Now, this isn’t just a small tweak. This would be a complete rewrite of the entire U.S. taxation system. That could be the solution to freeing Americans.

Now, it’s not just some crazy idea. It’s actually taking things back to how things were in the past. So, in this video, I’m going to break down the details of Trump’s ERS proposal, what this would mean for the U.S., what it could mean for the rest of the world, what the probability of something like this even going through is, and of course, what to expect and what we can do regardless of what happens. So, make sure you stick around because this could be one of the most important financial shifts of our lifetime.

So, let’s go. All right, we’re jumping right in. We’re going to talk about this new proposal by President Trump. And hang on, before you may turn this video off because maybe you’re not from America, not from the United States, this matters, right? This is going to change the entire globe’s trade and how this works. And so, make sure you stick around to the end regardless if this affects you as an American citizen or not. But you probably heard whether you’re an American or not of the IRS, which is the Internal Revenue Service, which was started in 1913.

We’ll talk about that in a second. But he is now proposing the creation, the formation of the ERS, which instead of internally revenue service is an external revenue service. Now, this is the I for the E. Now, this started with his tweet that went out right here. And actually, you know, it didn’t really start here, but let’s start here. Okay, so we put out a tweet for far too long. Make America great again. For far too long, we, the American people, have relied on taxing our great people, the very fine people. They’re so fine, the fine people, right? Taxing our great people using the Internal Revenue Service, the IRS.

He says that I will create, Donald Trump, will create the external all-in-caps, external revenue service to collect tariffs, duties, and revenue from there. Starting January 20th, 2025, will be the birth date of the ERS, External Revenue Service, to make America great again. So this is happening. This is going to happen, at least is what he is saying is going to happen. Now, basically what he’s proposing is, instead of taxing the great American people, as he said, let’s get money from external people, external people, ERS, that are shipping money in. So this is basically tariffs or taxes.

And the first term, he started to increase tariffs on country shipping stuff in. I’ll break all this down for you what this means. Now, just to say like, again, this didn’t just start here, it started back when he started doing tariffs. And of course, as he was on the campaign trail, running to become president, he started talking about this. As a matter of fact, if we go back to look at some of the stuff he pledged during the 2024 campaign to impose import taxes, tariffs of 10% to 20% on all foreign goods.

So 10 to 20% across the board. We’ll come back and show you what 20% means a little bit later. But basically, across the board, taxing stuff 10 to 20% with tariffs and up to 60% on Chinese goods. So he’s like, hey, look, these guys are taking American jobs. They’re sending low price stuff over here subsidizing even their stuff maybe at some point. And we’re destroying American economy. We’re not getting any money out of this. And so he wants to stop that he wants to increase tariffs and bring all of that back.

And I’ll show you what the impact of all that means. Now, tariffs or taxes, at some point, the government needs to have money, right? So where are they going to get it from? And I say right, because let’s take a look at that. Okay, so first of all, there has some historical precedence for this. So it’s not like this is some harebrained idea. He’s pulling this back from historical precedent. So before we had the I RS, which was formed in 1913, the United States funded itself in a completely different way. As a matter of fact, other nations today even do that as well.

Let’s hear from President Trump on this exact thing as he was on Joe Rogan. Let’s play that clip. Unless they pay a big price. And the big price is tariffs. And he’d speak like that, but he was right. And then around in the early 1900s, they switched over stupidly to frankly, an income tax. And you know why? Because countries were putting a lot of pressure on America. We don’t want to pay tariffs, please don’t you know, they believe me, they control our politicians. We had a commission meeting in the eight, I think it was 1887.

Think of this problem. We were so rich, we had so much money, we didn’t know what to do. So they set up a blue ribbon commission on tariffs. And the sole purpose is what to do with all the money we had. We were so rich, because we were taxing other people for coming in and taking our jobs. And China does it. That’s what China did. If you want to open a factory and sell cars, if you build a factory here, have a factory, they don’t take our cars. They wouldn’t take our cars. But if you build a plant in China, you can do that.

All right. So you heard it directly from President Trump’s mouth, that there used to be a different system. We used to tax goods that came into the service, and that would pay for the government to run. As a matter of fact, he said that there was such a big account, there was so much money, and 95% of all income for the government came from those tariffs at that time. Now, again, you know, we can see headlines that are saying like, well, how did that happen? I’m going to break that down for you.

But just to kind of show you some of the numbers, we can jump on Wikipedia. I don’t really like the framing of this. But we can see that tariffs have played a key role in the trade policy of the United States. Their purpose was to generate revenue for the federal government. Obviously, that’s what Trump was just saying. It says here is it was aimed to reduce the trade deficit and the pressure of foreign competition. So again, he doesn’t want the other countries subsidizing their goods, sending cheap goods into the country, and then decimating our industrial base, our economy.

Between 1861 and 1933, they had one of the highest average tariff rates on manufacturing imports in the world. So before the creation of the Federal Reserve, that’s how that was done. Now, this sort of like pay to play, not live. That’s what Trump is saying. So like, instead of like, people having to pay Americans having to pay to live. How about these countries or companies pay to play if they want to sell goods in, they should pay, not the American people. Is that good or bad? Well, this thing is good and bad.

There’s trade off. So I’m gonna show you what those trade offs are. But we can see here until World War One tariffs amounted to around 50%. So up to the creation of the Federal Reserve, they were or the IRS and the Federal Reserve at the same time, 95%. By World War One, they’re down to 50%. And then they went to zero, zero. Today, tariff revenues account for very little US revenue, very little. However, they’re double what it was pre Trump, because again, Trump was the one that kind of got this going this whole ball going again.

Now, I want to show you about the trade offs and I’m gonna show you the probability if this is even going to matter and what it means for us either way. But before we do, I want to show you show you that this is not just old history. This is not just the way it was done pre, you know, creation of the Federal Reserve or the IRS. As a matter of fact, you might notice that other countries and if you’re watching from another country, you might be living in a no income tax area.

As a matter of fact, before I jump in to break this down for you, let’s hear from another president of a nation, President Michaela of El Salvador. Let’s see what he has to say. When I talked to my conservative friends right here, they always tell me that the problem is high taxes, but they’re wrong. Of course, high taxes are extremely high here in the United States. I give you that. You’re right in that. But that’s not the real problem. The real problem is not the high taxes themselves, but the fact that they are not even really funding the government.

So you heard it from President Bikini there. He says that, of course, the taxes are very high in America, some of the highest in the world, but that’s not the problem. The problem is that what are the taxes even being used for? We are under this illusion that we’re paying taxes to fund the government, but he said that that’s not even the case. So let’s take a look at that, for example. Now, before we dig into the nitty-gritty of the math, again, there’s other nations that are doing this. The UAE, United Arab Emirates, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, et cetera.

Bahamas, Caymans, Monaco, Qatar, we could go on. Now, I was recently in Dubai in Abu Dhabi. I was speaking at the big Bitcoin conference that was going on over there, and I went and I visited Dubai, and I put up a tweet on my Twitter account, which by the way, if you’re not following me, check it out. I put more play by play on there. And I said something just like I said, hey, coming from California, which is the highest tax state in the nation of the United States, it’s pretty interesting to come in from the highest tax state and looking at Los Angeles with probably the worst infrastructure.

The roads are falling apart, the buildings are falling apart, you have the biggest homeless problem that’s there, and there’s not one single crane up in the sky. You can tell a lot about the economy of a city by how many cranes are there, how much development is going on. And I said over in Dubai, there’s no income tax, and yet the city is probably the cleanest city that I’ve ever seen in my life. The infrastructure is amazing. I would call it magnificent. It’s the only word I could think of. And there’s cranes everywhere.

There’s no tax. So I was just saying it’s interesting to understand that. And I got blown up. I didn’t know you could say, couldn’t say good things about Dubai. And everyone said, well, that’s because they use slaves. That’s because they’ve stolen all the oil from the land, all these different things. And none of that’s true. Well, maybe they didn’t use oil at one point. But today, Dubai has no income tax, and they have almost no less than 1% of their GDP comes from oil. So where do nations like Dubai, or Bahamas, or Caymans, or Monaco, where do they, or how do they fund the government without income taxes? Well, there’s always going to be taxes.

The government has to receive money, but it doesn’t have to come from income. There’s a lot of tax that we pay. So for example, in Dubai, there’s the 5% VAT tax. So that’s sort of like in the United States, we have a sales tax. And so that tax happens every time there’s a transaction happening. And then businesses also pay 9%. So 9% corporate tax rate, which of course is way less than the United States as well. So that’s how sort of things like that happen. Now we can see in Dubai, the reason why I was going to use Dubai is like I said, I was recently there, 26% comes from wholesale and retail trade, 12% from logistics.

They have a big tourism industry here. This is only 5%. It’s much bigger now, real estate manufacturing. And so all of these sectors pay in money through that 9% corporate rate. But the thing to understand here is that why are all those businesses there? What Dubai did is said, hey, we’re going to compete with the rest of the world and we’ll attract capital. So by being very pro business, and very pro capitalism, all these companies have been coming to set up there, and then they benefit from taxing those companies, albeit at a very much lower rate than what the United States does.

And so we’ve seen that it’s not just a dream. It’s not just history. It’s actually happening right now. Now back to President Haley’s comments about your taxes or Americans taxes not really funding their government. This is a chart from the government from the Congressional Budget Office. And what this is showing is the deficit. And the deficit is obviously the difference between what the government spending and what they’re bringing in from taxes. And again, income taxes is part of there’s all kinds of other taxes, right? So business taxes and property taxes and sales taxes and capital gains taxes, on, on, on.

However, the problem is that the government continues to spend more and more and more and more and more than they collect. We’re spending about two trillion more than what they’re bringing in. And per the government’s CBO, they project that gap, that deficit gap, to get bigger and bigger and bigger. So two trillion more than they, they’re spending two trillion more than they bring in. And then it will be two and a half and then three and then four. And so if they’re spending an extra two trillion dollars, again, back to the Haley’s comment, what do they need our money for? Where are they getting that money? And they show you, well, it’s debt.

So this is the line of where we’re at today. And this is what they project the debt levels to go up to. And I just want to bring out one point. I wrote a book called The Uncommunist Manifesto. It’s a bestselling book on Amazon. I’ll link to it down below. You should check it out, The Uncommunist Manifesto. But in Karl Marx’s book, Marxist book called The Communist Manifesto, he laid out 10 points of communism. And I’ll just let you know that right here, number two, a heavy progressive or graduated income tax. It’s a Marxist idea.

I’d also let you know number five is a central bank. So it wouldn’t be a big surprise that both the IRS, the taxation system, and the central bank, the Fed, were both created at the same time in 1913. Both of them are Marxist ideas. So back to Bailey’s comment, why does the government take your money? You think you’re funding the government, but you’re not. So then why are we paying such heavy income taxes? It’s Marxism. It’s redistribution. That’s a whole nother comment, a whole nother conversation. If you want me to do a video on that, let me know down in the comments down below.

Otherwise, go check out that book. But let’s talk about the pros and cons of this. And then we’ll talk about could this really happen and what I think is going to happen. All right, so potential shock. So what a lot of people are saying is obviously the pro would be, well, shoot, if we got more revenue from trade, that’s good for the government. So there’s more money coming in. All the businesses and companies and countries that are sending stuff into the US, they pay a little bit, the US has more money.

That’s great. That might mean also less taxes for citizens. I would love it if my income tax were to go down or obviously completely go away altogether. That’d be amazing. So pro, more income for the government. Pro, more income for me. I could keep more of my income. Now, it’s important to understand Hauser’s law. I talk about this quite often. And the interesting thing about Hauser’s law is there’s only so much money to go around. There’s only a pie. Now, the pie can get bigger or smaller, but we have to divide up that pie.

And so basically, the way it works is kind of common sense. If you were to keep 100% of your money, you would have more money to spend and invest. If you keep zero of your money, if they took all of it, you would have no money to spend and invest. So everything else is just a spectrum. You have to understand the government cannot spend something it has not taken from you. It just redistributes. Now, it can take money as in debt from the future if you do that. But per Hauser’s law, it shows that regardless of what the tax rate is, 10% or 90%, the percentage of the pie of GDP stays about the same, about 19%.

So when taxes go down, the pie gets bigger, when taxes go up, the pie gets smaller, but the percentage of revenue to the pie of GDP stays about the same. All right, so that’s Hauser’s law. But back to the potential shocks. So the pros sound good, less taxes for me, more revenue for the government, the cons could be, well, higher costs for imported goods. So we import a lot of goods. And so we can see the prices of all those things go up. That’s inflation. That means your money doesn’t buy as much as it used to.

That could be bad, bad for you. We could also see potentially retaliatory tariffs. So if the US were to slap tariffs on other nations, then other nations say, okay, fine, then we’ll slap tariffs on your stuff. But here’s the thing about this part. I think this part’s overblown, in my opinion. And the reason why is that most other nations already have tariffs, they have all types of duties, import duties, and VAT taxes. Like I’ve been sentenced a bunch of stuff down to Mexico for my house that I built down there. But I’m paying this enormous rate every single time I ship something down there.

So we’re already having that. On top of that, the US is a net importer. We don’t export much stuff. The number one thing we export is our financial services, our internet services, you might already say there’s tariffs on those. The EU, Zuckerberg was on Rogan recently, and I think he said that the tech companies have been fined like $30 billion in just the last, I don’t know, five or 10 years. That’s sort of like a tariff. So we export financial services, internet services and energy. So really, I don’t think this is a big risk.

All right, now let’s think about the probability of something like this going through in 100% or partially, and what that means for us. So first of all, as you might imagine, there can be massive hurdles in Congress, but not just Congress, like there’s an entire IRS, you know, deep state operation, you have all the attorneys that make money from tax attorneys and all of that, that whole complex, if you will, they’re going to fight that they don’t want that to go through. Obviously, they want to keep that in place. The Marxist organization wants to stay there.

Now, what’s the probability of it actually replacing the income tax? Well, if you think that the income tax is still needed by the government, then what’s the probability of that? Let’s look at some of the, let’s look at some of the math. Now, as I said, right, Trump pledged to do that. He’s also pledged to do a bunch of other things with taxes. So for example, he’s vowed on the campaign trail to up in the tax structure by no taxes on tips. So get rid of that. That’s pretty good. Over time, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security.

So a lot of things like that, even floating the elimination of the federal income tax altogether, which is this, this, although, like I said, there’s going to be a lot of pushback. Now, I do want to just point out, again, this is Trump’s second term. So in his first term, he did a ton of tax reform. As a matter of fact, President Trump achieved the biggest tax cuts and reforms in American history, many of which I’m still loving and using today, but they’re dwindling down, like for example, accelerated depreciation, bonus depreciation, that’s a big one.

And so I just want to point out in his first term, he did enormous tax cuts. And so, you know, he’s a man of his order. He says he’s gonna do some of this stuff. I would expect a lot of this to go through at what level. Well, let’s look at some of the probability of this. Let’s look at some of the numbers. So we can see here that if we were going to put a 20% tariff on all imported goods, what dent would that put into the income tax that he wants to get rid of? Well, we can see total imports last year, 2024, were $3.8 trillion.

All right. Now, the federal revenue, the federal government’s total revenue for the same year was $5 trillion. So if we were to take 20% of the total imports, 3.8 trillion, that is about $766 billion. That’s the 20% across the board. Now, if we do the math, that’s only about 15.6% of the government’s total revenue. So it doesn’t really make up for the whole thing. That’s assuming that they need that money from us and they’re just not going to spin it off. Now, I also like to point out the betting markets. I look at them regularly.

Now, currently, there’s not a betting market open for this specifically. If we’ll have tariffs replace income taxes, I’d love to see someone spin that up. But currently, we do have three different proposals that we’re betting on in regards to Trump and tax policies. So will Trump end taxes on tips, as he sort of said he would? Right now, the betting markets say there’s a 33% chance of that going through. Will Trump cut corporate taxes in 2025? There’s a 60% chance of that going through. And will Trump cut taxes on high earners in 2025? And there’s a 21% chance.

So corporate taxes, 60% better than average. The rest are below average on that point. So that’s what the sort of probabilities are of this going through. Now, what does this mean for us either way? Well, a couple things it means. Number one, pretty much expect higher prices. Alright, so there’s going to be some tariffs, maybe they’re not going to be across the board, like he said, maybe they won’t be as high, but he’s going to increase them. We know that because he did before, and he’s going to at least follow through with some of that.

So that’s going to be higher prices, no matter what, even if there’s not this retaliatory, you know, potential retaliatory risk that people see, it’s going to mean higher prices expect for that. It’s also going to mean lower taxes. So we’re going to have some tariffs, it’s going to bring prices up. We’re also going to have tax cuts, which will bring taxes down. Now, we don’t know if it’s going to be 100%. But there’s going to be some blend of that. So be prepared for that. I do want to just let you know, one other thing, though, that regardless of what happens, we all have the ability to bring down the amount of taxes that we pay by using all types of incentives that the government puts in place.

So the tax code is complex, and it favors investors, not consumers. So if you’re just a w two earner that just watches TV and sits in your mom’s basement, you don’t get a lot of breaks or incentives from the government. But if you buy a house or you build a business or things like that, then you do get a lot of incentives to lower your taxes this way. So if you want to learn more about that, I have a whole video right here that you can go watch on that. Otherwise, let me know what you think.

Do you think this goes through? Leave it in the comments down below. And that’s what I got. All right, to your success. I’m out. [tr:trw].

See more of Mark Moss on their Public Channel and the MPN Mark Moss channel.

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