Three Economic Warnings That Will Hurt Us All | I Allegedly
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Transcript
Hey, it’s Dan. Welcome back. You’re watching. I allegedly, and I’ve got a good one for you today because I am at the Ritz Carlton and we’ve got some breaking news. Two things I really want to talk to you about that are just amazing. And before I get into it, please like the video, please comment in the video. Subscribe to the channel and let’s get right into it. First things first, guys.
We just heard some staggering news, and that is, we’ve talked so much about the problems with commercial real estate and how they are nothing but vacancy problems and problems with refinancing. Well, the hits just keep on coming and it’s getting much, much worse. What’s happened is think about this. You’ve got, for the first time since they’ve kept records, we have 1. 2 billion commercial real estate that is available right now.
Okay? But we just shattered the record. It’s 1. 2 billion sqft is available right now. First time ever in history. In the first quarter. Think about this. Commercial real estate vacancies jumped to a staggering 23. 7%. 23. 7% here in the United States. All time high. Not since, you know, even the great Recession, not since the depression, not since any time of record keeping for commercial space have we had vacancies at almost 24%.
24%. Guys, now think about this, okay? In the first quarter quarter of 2024, there was 52 million, just over 52 million sqft that was leased. Oh, my gosh. We’re killing it. We’re doing great. No, it’s awful. What’s happened is it was down 36% from a year ago. 36%. You cannot make this number up. Now. Where this gets even worse right now is with high interest rates that, let’s face it, they’re only going up right now.
They’re not going down right now. What you’re seeing is the largest group of transactions that were for less than 100,000 sqft than they were before. So people are leasing office space, but they’re not taking three floors, they’re only taking two. They’re taking less office space than they ever have before. But the largest group of offices were rented with 100,000 less square feet transactions. Read the story below. It’s absolutely amazing.
Absolutely amazing. Now, the big problem with this is the interest rate problem. And, you know, we spoke with Bob and Bob talked about this. The banks have talked about this with me, you know, at nausea. Okay? And the point is, is that people don’t realize that when they originally bought these buildings and they had three and five year old notes that were due, that it was going to be due in 2020, end of 2024, 2025.
And that these people were like, oh, we’ll get through this. It’ll be no big deal. Well, it’s a huge deal right now because what’s happening is they can’t refinance the building. Imagine if you went to the bank and you had almost 24% vacancy. They would laugh you out of the bank. Well, okay, everybody’s got that right now. So is it going to be bad? Yeah, it’s going to get worse.
Now, here is the thing as the other breaking news point is that, you know, the inflation numbers, I don’t believe, okay, I’m one of those people that think that it’s absolutely ridiculous that these inflation numbers are sold to us when you and I have to pay for everything. We have seen gold shoot up, we have seen oil shoot up. You’re going to see things continue to go up in price, and it’s not going to be 3%, three and a half percent.
It’s going to going to be much higher because that’s what we experience in the real world. Jamie Dimon steps forward and he says, listen, there’s a real problem because of all these geopolitical problems and we neglected ourselves. We didn’t try to compete with China during this time, and we should have done this. We should have gone out there and tried to be, you know, in charge and be the leader of everything.
Why is he doing this now? Okay? Because what he feels is he feels that interest rates for the Fed borrowing back and forth to the banks will be at 8%. I could realistically see that. Why is he saying this? Why is he saying this now? I want you to understand that you will see interest rates, okay, for mortgages at ten and 11%. Okay? Easily, easily 1011 percent. Now, to give you an idea, the last time we saw, you know, interest rates from the Fed at 6.
7% was the year 2000, okay? So it hit its peak, 2003, 2004, about 8% again. But we’re going to see that again, guys, this is going to be the problem that will not go away. Okay? So I love when I talk about this because I love the older guys who are older than me. That said, dan, you know, I bought my house and I had a 13% mortgage, okay? I want you to understand, chief, that your house went up in price that you bought back then for 13% ten times.
It is not, you know, 30,000. It’s now 300,000. It’s a completely different world. Your house payment at 13% was like buying a car. Now can you afford it? Is it foolish? You gonna make it? Yeah, ted, you’re gonna be fine, you know what I mean? But it’s completely different right now. And we’re supposed to act like this is all okay. No way, guys. No way. Everything’s tied to oil.
Over 6000 products are produced by oil and you’re gonna see it go through the roof. So let me know what you think about this so far. But again, 1. 2 million vacant, you know, commercial real estate. You wonder why my friend is so busy with the banks. And again my friend wants me, I started out, hey, can you give us a couple hours? Hey, can you give us three days? Hey, can you come into the company? Hey, why don’t I have a desk there, guys? Now, because I’m there so much with this because they’re getting approved from the banks to do foreclosures like you’ve never seen.
You’re going to see hotels go out of business, not things like this one. This one’s, you know, 1200 bucks a night. Enjoy. Have a nice day for the room that doesn’t face the ocean. Okay. And you can go buy a $45 cheeseburger. Okay, enjoy. Okay. But let me know what you think about this so far. Surprise, surprise. The inflation numbers just came in and they are higher than expected.
We’re supposed to believe that inflation only went up four tenths of 1% to three and a half percent month over month this march compared to last March of 2023, which is ridiculous. When you look at this chart from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, you can clearly see how inflation is trending upward. Now personally, I don’t believe for a second that it’s only a four tenths of 1%. They also tell us that inflation was led by energy, which we’ve all seen gas prices go up and they say it’s only up 1.
1%. But again, the ten year bonds are going through the roof right now. You’re not going to see interest rates lowered anytime soon. This is going to destroy everything. Get yourself ready for this down economy that we’re all living through. Hey guys, Bob Kudla is nice enough to come out and meet me and answer questions and talk about where he thinks the economy’s at. The stock market, metals, energy, everything.
Please take a look@danlovestrading. com. And support. Bob, you know, he’s a great guy, really knows his stuff. But if you’re interested in trading stocks, cryptos or metals, energy. They covered all guys. But take a look@danlifttrading. com. And get his discounts. Okay, take a look at it today. Just a quick video today, but a few things I want to cover that are disgusting. First one is what is Chicago’s largest employer? Okay, I didn’t know about this till yesterday.
Chicago Mercantile Exchange, they employ almost 3600 people and they want to leave for various reasons. Crime, the fact that the migrants come first, the fact that they don’t get anything. They just get their taxes raised and they’re seriously thinking about leaving. Now, they talked about this in October. They are the exchange that handles things like your deposit to your Robinhood account. And they handle a lot of transactions.
And Chicago Mercantile exchange could be in Texas before you know it, there is a high likelihood that they will leave and Chicago doesn’t care about them. Now, here’s something else that’s insane, okay? And that is California spent $24 billion. Billion with a B. Billion dollars on homelessness, okay? We have, think about this, 171,000 homeless people. We’ve got 40% of the homeless people in the entire nation in our lovely state, okay? And they keep throwing money at it.
And it’s big business, clearly, you know, $24 billion in big business, you know, but again, they don’t do anything to fix it. And this is ridiculous. Read the story below. Because what’s going to happen, guys, seriously, you just can’t keep throwing money at something that doesn’t work. And then you have to, you can’t neglect businesses like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and act like they’re no big deal because they are.
Okay? I rag on Elon Musk a lot. But something funny, you know, he had a problem in Delaware as a Delaware corporation for Tesla, and they canceled his employment contract. Remember, he said he wasn’t worth $35 billion without compensation and he had that lawsuit. Well, Philip Shaw is a businessman out of Delaware who is furious with this. And he said, listen, I want to make it clear, this is not the first state.
We’re the worst state. And he bought a $2 million ad campaign to support Elon Musk during this time. Is that crazy? But again, the worst state. And he’s just buying ads, buying billboards, buying everything to talk about how don’t incorporate in Delaware. Okay? That’s, you know, insane, okay? Now, Elon Musk, here’s something funny. Brazil is giving them a hard time over Starlink and they may cancel, you know, their contract and they have a contract to pay, you know, Starlink for the Internet.
He said listen, if they cancel the Starlink, I’m going to give all the kids in Brazil free Internet so they won’t have to worry about this again. Scoundrels getting kicked in the shins. Okay, so you know, you can like Elon Musk. Hate Elon Musk, whatever. But this is pretty incredible that he may do this. So let me know what you think. Now, I’m going to end this video with these last couple stories.
And Doctor Marvin sent me both of these, and they’re great. The first one’s sad and I always get worked up over this and that. Older Floridians has a great story below about how they are not making ends meet. When I was a kid, I used to think, ends meet. People are not making ends meet. Well, why are they not cooking that? Is that the worst cut of meat that there is? I was a child, but I guess you don’t want to eat ends meet and you don’t want to make it.
Okay. So then as I got older and I got into my early, late teens and early twenties, I learned ends meat was paying your bills. Make ends meet. Okay, well, that’s a big problem in Florida right now. And people are not making ends meet. And another great story out of Florida that Doctor Marvin said me was, people are buying houses. And then they get the shock of all shocks when they start making their house payments because they have to pay their property taxes.
And they don’t get the fact that the property taxes are not static like they are here in California. Basically, they go up a little bit here and there because of bond issues and shenanigans and, you know, the state trying to do a number on us, but they’re fixed. Well, in Florida, they’re not not fixed. And these people get an estimate and like they said, they’re not static. And these people get clipped and people, you know, they are house poor.
They barely make it into the house. And then they find out that the property taxes are going to cost them an additional $600 a month. Where does that money come from? Okay. It doesn’t. So that’s the problem is people don’t have the money to get by right now. And the problem with this, in that, think about this. From 2022, 75% of the people that bought homes, 75%, regret the purchase.
Okay. Well, they’re going to regret it even more as it goes down. You’re going to see such a problem when you have so much activity in Florida. You have so many people that, first of all, they’re trying to sell their houses that can’t sell their houses. You’ve got problems that we’ve never seen in the marketplace with insurance, and it’s only going to get better. So remember, start of this video, the 8% federal loan rate could be a realistic number and you could see ten and 11% mortgages.
And once again, please do not waste the keystrokes writing me to tell me that you had a 13 and 14% mortgage. It doesn’t matter because your house was 10% of what it is now. These people that are buying $1. 5 million houses, I mean, this, this neighborhood, that hill behind me, those are five and $6 million properties right there. Is that insane? Yeah. Okay. You know, you need to stop sniff and glue to buy a house like that.
But the point is to this is that it is crazy that you’re going to sit there and say that 11% mortgage, or, you know, 10% for that matter, is good because, you know, it’s not. Please do not forget to hit the like button. Email me. I hope that you liked the extra little eclipse photos that we added in the corner of the video that you guys sent me.
That was fun. Okay. Hope you enjoyed that. Hope you enjoyed the short I made. A lot of people did. Got a lot of comments on it and I appreciate it. Onward and upward, guys. I will see you guys very soon. It. .
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