➡ The article discusses the potential for silver prices to rise significantly, possibly to three to five hundred dollars an ounce. The author believes that the intermediate trend factors for silver are healing after going negative, indicating a potential for a strong upward trend. The article also mentions a previous rapid increase in silver prices from $56 to over a dollar in just two months, and suggests that a similar or even larger increase could occur in the future. The author concludes by stating that they will provide their subscribers with signals indicating when this upward trend might begin.
➡ The text discusses the historical trends of copper and silver prices, noting that these metals have experienced significant price increases over time. It suggests that these increases are not always due to external factors like war or news headlines, but often due to market corrections after periods of undervaluation. The text also highlights the role of money supply growth in driving up asset prices, using the example of housing prices over generations. Finally, it predicts that silver prices will likely rise significantly in the near future, potentially reaching $300 to $500 an ounce, due to its current undervaluation and the ongoing increase in money supply.
➡ The article discusses the potential for a significant increase in silver prices due to market corrections and technical factors. It suggests that silver has been lagging behind other metals and markets, and is due for a catch-up. The article also mentions potential disruptions in the silver supply chain and a possible debt crisis as factors that could drive up silver prices. Finally, it highlights the importance of the bond market and the role of tech sector in the S&P index.
➡ The article discusses the potential for mining stocks to increase in value, particularly those related to gold and silver. The author believes that these stocks are currently undervalued and could explode in value in the future. They also suggest that the price of silver could increase significantly, which would benefit silver miners. The author plans to take profits from these potential increases and invest them in gold bullion, which they believe will remain stable even if there are sharp corrections in the market.
➡ The article discusses the potential impact of a rise in silver prices on the stock market, particularly mining stocks. It suggests that if silver prices increase significantly, all silver stocks would likely rise, with larger companies seeing early gains due to their liquidity. However, smaller companies could potentially outperform in the long run, offering investors greater returns. The article also highlights the importance of considering non-price related risks when investing in mining stocks.
➡ The text talks about the potential of earning a lot from silver investments, even if it’s just a small amount. There’s also a hint of silver prices possibly increasing this summer. The speaker looks forward to discussing this with David and thanks the audience for watching. They plan to continue the discussion next week.

Way. If that’s merely a pause, which we argue it is, we suggest Silver’s going to probably three to five hundred dollars an ounce. And after the breakout of this congestion zone, and that will occur by momentum methods prior to price ever getting up through that, those highs, price chart laggards will be buying silver 120 saying, well, I guess I was wrong. Okay, the, the issue now is the intermediate trend factors, the stuff that is shorter term and in its significance already the long term metrics turn positive on silver in layers over the last several years and they don’t offer any more buy signals because they’re fully a green light.

In other words, there’s no, I can’t turn a greener light on. It’s only the intermediate stuff that has gone negative and now is healing. And so that’s what we’re trying to measure at MSA is when does that next leg begin? Because that next leg I think will be triple or quadruple the dimensions and speed of what we just saw from late last year through January. Well, hello there my friends. Chris Marcus here with you for Arcade Economics and quite exciting. Excited to have a very popular guest join me, which is who is obviously Michael Oliver of Momentum Structural Analysis.

Michael, a long time cult favorite in the silverbug crowd in general because you were out there for years in advance. I know you and I have been talking about it for years where you’ve come on and said we were gonna have our day. Sure enough, as we sit here on May 26th, 6th in 2026, it’s wild. Just a few months ago, silver was over $121. And seems like so much has happened so quickly since then that, I mean it was like right then you had Epstein files getting released, then you have a war and almost like did it happen yet? I know you’ve been quite adamant lately.

You see good times ahead for Silver investors. Plus it is always just a real pleasure to catch up with you. One of my favorite people to just talk to as a person in all the years I’ve been doing this. So welcome on in. And how are you today, my friend? I’m just fine, Chris. Everything’s. I like that hill behind you there. That’s cool. Well, it sounds like it fits with your forecast because I was listening to one of your recent interviews this morning and I’ve seen that you have a forecast out there in the Silver space that would, I don’t know what’s the appropriate way to phrase it, obviously make some Silver investors happy, at least in one Sense it could be stunning.

And why don’t we start there and we can also touch on. I think it’d be great to get your opinion of what has happened in the past year as well. Yeah. What’s that? That’s a chart of closes daily closes or month. Weekly it looks like. I believe this is daily. Although as you can see, even though we. They. Yes, this might be weekly. So you don’t, you don’t get 100. Yeah, there’s your highest weekly close a dollar one. Okay. And that move, that’s that move to a dollar 20 or close to it anyway on closes was extremely brief.

In other words, it wasn’t like we lived up there for a couple months and then turned down. It was like thin air and we dropped. Okay. After all it had just gone. Our final long term buy signal was in November. The closest over then was $56. Okay. So what you were looking at that peak there was in late January. So two months later it gone from 56 bucks to you know, well over a dollar. I mean that was, that was a statement. Okay. And then since then you’ve got this lovely horizontal line there which is the tell.

We’ve been sideways since then. Okay. Once you had that collapse and really that collapse was within hours on one day, January 31st, you can see that huge drop. That’s literally one day, okay. So the whole, the basically quite an afternoon. It was. Look at, look where your arrow is and look sideways. We’ve not gone into the lower. It’s three and three quarter months later and we’re sitting here right where we were when the drop occurred. So everybody thought we’re going to keep going down. Well, what was lovely, I think was there was a low on February 3, the day after that collapse, a low close on silver, which at that time was $66 area.

Okay. And if you just look at daily closes, you finally after a couple months of laboring above that low market went down. All the war news, okay, the people selling gold and silver due to war, okay, you know, they don’t know whether they should buy it or sell it. It’s a, it’s a, it’s a weird external event. But anyway this time they sold it. And on March 23rd, silver finally went down and took out that February 3rd or the early February low at $66 intraday, okay. It went to 61 March 23rd. If you looked at an hourly chart of silver you would find that that day when you took out 66 the feblo in late March, you spent like about two hours down there.

In other words, you came down and ran all the cell stops that had to been built up below that Feblo was anybody said, oh my gosh, we ever go through that low, it’s all over. Okay. So they put their cell stop below that 66 level and they no doubt got triggered and it went to 61 in a heartbeat. And within another heartbeat it was well back above there and exploding like 10 bucks off that low almost immediately. Okay. Gold did something similar. It had a Feblo that it also took out on March 23rd. It took it a couple more days to get back on its feet.

But basically that March 23rd low, I think was a cleansing final puke effort by the bears to get it going. On the downside, it didn’t work. Okay. And since then we’ve rebounded up into the middle of the range of the last three and a half months. Okay. So it’s. So what do you call that? Well, after the drop, it’s steady. After that January 31st collapse, you get to draw a line sideways and silver’s really gone sideways. So who’s winning the game? I know all the nervous longs think the Bears are winning. That chart argues. No, nobody’s winning.

It’s gone sideways, guys. Okay. Meaning there’s demand down there. So Michael. Yeah, go ahead. Just to what you’re saying that that stood out to me as well. Where you know, if you go back a year ago, we’re at. We’re just crossing back over 30. So yeah, it’s off the highs. But it does seem as if a new range has been set. We didn’t go back down to the 30s or 40s. We’ve stayed here. 60s, 70s, 80s. Yeah, yeah. No, you’re right. I mean if you’re an investor, I mean somebody who buys something to hold it for several years.

Okay. And you take a vacation in January and didn’t see the drop. In fact, never knew it got to 120 because you were out of communication. And you come back now and you say, oh my goodness gracious, I’m double where I was a year ago. Oh, I’m hurting. Right. You get the point. In other words, it’s only the nervous late longs who came in like at 100 or 110 or something like that who are getting gut kicked here. And to some extent that’s justified because those were not appropriate entry levels. Our last and final major long term based bicycle was a November close of $56 on silver.

And what we’re going to offer now to our subscribers is the signal that indicates that this congestion zone you’re looking at is breaking out to the upside. And it won’t be based on simply looking at the price chart. We have momentum metrics that will signal that and the trigger levels that will do that. They’re not all that far above what we’ve seen during the yesterday, for example. And Michael, just before you get to that, just to set the context in your opinion, what happened where we waited 45 years for silver to break 50 and then I believe that was either October or November and then it basically did a double and a half in a two month period.

What, why, what specifically happened then? There was obviously issues at LBMA and elsewhere. But what do you think drove that price? Like I don’t think anything drove it except what had not occurred for 50 years. We ran some charts. Last October was emerging above that old dual set of highs at 50 bucks. 1980 was a high at 50. The Bunker Hunt era. And in 2011 it hit 50 again. Range this chart doesn’t reflect because it must reflect like weekly closes. But intraday we’re both highs were at 50, right. In 1980 and 2011. Why was silver stuck in a half century price range with lows about four or five bucks repeatedly? Highs at 50.

You know, nice moves, tenfold move from bottom to top, bottom to top. But why was it stuck in this boring range when if you look at a copper chart and go Back to the 1980s, for example, we ran this back in October and lead as well. Two exciting metals. Quite a copper price these days too up there at 650. It’s not in blow off mode or anything like that. It’s going up steadily. But it had a move. You don’t go back far and you have to go back in there. Well, yeah, if you go back even further, which you may not be able to do that stuff on the lower left side, there was a range in copper from 50 cents to a buck 50.

So me average price for decades was a dollar a pound. Okay. And then in 2005, late that year it decided, hey, I’m gonna break out of here. Okay. Now within several quarters into, into 2006, copper reached an intraday high of $4 and 10 cents. Yeah, I don’t, I don’t think you see that. That’s this must be monthly closes, but there was an intraday high back in 2006. Yeah, there you go. See that shows 385. But intraday you get the 410. Okay. Meaning in several quarters after Emerging above the top of that range, copper quadrupled in price and there was no headline.

Copper did it on its own. It wasn’t because gold and silver were also going vertical. Then how come it did that again? No headlines, no war news, no sudden, you know, et cetera, et cetera. It did it. Why? Because it contained too low for too long and the market made an error. Markets often misprice themselves. They’re not rational. We know that markets go sometimes too high for too long and therefore they have a savage bear market at some point. No.com bubble for example, or in this case copper stay low for way too long and suddenly say oh, I shouldn’t be here.

Bam, done. Okay. If you weren’t there, you missed it. And then what happened for the next decade or two was what? Sideways in copper. But at an average price of about 3 or 3:50. Okay. A new reality was reached. Okay. And now we’re merging again. Okay, but how come silver all during the time we’re looking at here, with the exception of the last few months in copper was not making new highs. Gold was, gold didn’t stop at prior bull market peaks, 2008 was taken out in 2011, 2011 was taken out in 2020, etc. Etc. So how come silver was contained? That’s the issue and I don’t think it needs a reason.

It’s got plenty of them. It just, it finally just said hey, I’ve had enough and it hasn’t is having a tantrum, a repricing tantrum. And I think it has only begun and I bet on the other side of the congestion zone we’re in. Yeah, look at, look at where we are now. I mean is, is that it? Okay. Yeah, right, okay. Anyway, if that’s merely a pause, which we argue it is, we suggest silver’s going to probably three to five hundred dollars an ounce and after the breakout of this congestion zone, and that’ll occur by momentum methods prior to price ever getting up through that, those highs price chart laggards will be buying silver at 120 saying, well, I guess I was wrong.

Okay, the, the issue now is the intermediate trend factors, the stuff that is shorter term and in its significance already the long term metrics turn positive on silver in layers over the last several years and they don’t offer any more buy signals because they’re fully a green light. In other words, there’s no, I can’t turn a greener light on. It’s only the intermediate stuff that has gone negative and now is healing and so that’s what we’re trying to measure at MSA is when does that next leg begin? Because that next leg, I think, will be triple or quadruple the dimensions and speed of what we just saw from late last year through January.

Okay. And with that said, I think you touched on it briefly, but if you could lay out what you think. The timeline. And also, I guess, as with the background, as an option trader, it’s like there’s, you know, sometimes I have the forecast and then what my degree of confidence or certainty. How. When do you think this might occur and how likely do you think that it would be to occur by that time? I think it’s likely to be soon. Our signal levels, again, are not evident on a price chart. You look at a price chart, you say, well, I got to get way up there before I believe it’s going up.

Okay. Our momentum charts, debate up north, more powerful trigger level, well below the obvious highs you would reference on a price chart. I think it’s likely to occur probably between now and early next month. There was the upside resumption. Okay. Oh, wow. Once it does, I think you can count about three, maybe four, but three monthly bars, that will be vertical, much like what Copper did in 2005. And by the way, lead did the exact same thing in 2007, quadrupled in a matter of several quarters. No headlines just said, oh, been down there too long. It’s ridiculous.

And there’s other factors. I mean, there’s a stupid factor that is money. M2. Punch up an M2 chart. It shows the degradation of the buying power of our money. Similar charts would be reflected in the euro and the yen and so forth. A rapidly exploding supply of money. That’s why when your father. Well, when your granddad built the house. Yeah, there you go. Look at it. No wonder things go up, because there’s a river of money bidding everything up. It could have something to do with it, right? Yeah, something to do with it. What do you think this is, a junior Weimar Republic you’re looking at there? Okay.

No, it’s not parabolic, but it, you know, might as well be just transitory, though, Michael. It’s just transitory. Oh, yeah, no, it’s. Yeah, you can see it. It. It. It constantly declines, too. Right. Okay. Anyway, we’ll get on the T bonds in a minute, which will help accelerate that upward curve. But if you go back and price silver in 1980 at 50 bucks and look at the M2 chart and see what. What. How much money was floating around and See how what has been the increase in the money supply since 1980 and then multiply that times the price of silver at 50, then where might silver be merely to reflect the ongoing decay in the money in it? Well, it’d be about 500 bucks.

Okay. And if you go to 1980, 2011, when you’re 50 bucks and do the same thing, you’d be old 2, 300. Okay, so those sort of broad, non technical but fundamental driving forces suggest that hey, if silver’s merely going to reflect, not even outpace, just reflect the decay in the buying power of the money unit, it could go there. Okay. Copper did. Lead did. Gold continues to beat the growth in the money supply. But silver lags it. Why? And I mentioned an example of this that everybody should think about. When your granddad built a house, it was $4,500.

When your father built one was 45,000. Now a median home is 450,000. You get the point. It’s the decay in the money unit. All assets over time will tend to follow that decay. Now some will lag it and catch up. Some will exceed it and pull back the S and P for example, which everybody’s touting because the quote new highs, which is limited by the way to the S&P5, not the 500. If you go back to 2000.com high check where the money supply was, check where it is now. Do the math. Do the same thing on the S and P.

You’ll find the S P merely nearly reflected the decay in the money in it or the increase in the money supply. It didn’t do any better. So in real dollar terms converted to assets other like, you know, how many loaves of bread could you buy in 2000 with an S and P and if you sold and how many now, it hasn’ changed. It really has not gained value, it’s merely nominally gained value. And that’s what investors are fixated on. And they need to learn, you know, if it. We would laugh if somebody in the Weimar Republic weren’t aware of what was going on then because we look back on history and say, see, it was so obvious, didn’t you know that it’s going on here just at a lesser pace and that you have to think about that when you invest in something.

And what we’re arguing is that while gold has handily beat money growth since 2020 2000, excuse me.com Peak Silver hasn’t. And that’s another factor that silver is trying to correct for it’s vast underpricing to Gold, it’s faster under pricing to a lot of things and it’s fast underpricing to money. So you don’t need a headline. After all, you’ve had five years now of supply, demand deficit supply not meeting industrial demand for silver and yet nobody’s pounding the table about that fact. It’s not a good, you and I have been. It’s not a good timing mechanism obviously because why didn’t silver go up three years ago or four years ago or two years ago, you know, reflecting that underlying reality that hasn’t changed.

Markets make mistakes and when they make mistakes, sometimes they overcorrect, they go the other way, double what they might otherwise do. Anyway, that’s what we’re expecting. It’s based primarily on technicals but also some of these other things we’re talking about that silver is lagged to its peers, its other metals. It’s lagged to the stock market, it’s lagged to gold, it’s lagged to the money growth and it wants to do a catch up. And Michael, just to make sure I have this in the right context, if we’re recording Tuesday, May 26th and I believe you said about a month or so, like if we said, I suspect you might our breakout the next, within the next several weeks so we could see this before July 4th, silver investors, the breakout could have a nice barbecue by then.

Once you’ve clearly broken out by our metrics then at that point I would step the clock and say well let’s give it three, maybe four months but basically expect much of what’s going to occur to occur that quickly. Okay, so you expect for silver investors the next four months of life are going to be quite exciting beginning within the once we get our trigger elected. Yes, that’s when I pound the table and say okay, light green again. Now the light never went dark on long term metrics. They, they just had a dip. Okay. But it’s the shorter term stuff, the stuff that when you break it might kick in a gut for a couple months or so, which it’s done.

Okay. Silver’s been stalled for several months sideways after the break but that looks like it’s about to end and it’s going to wake up. Unfortunately during that process the market has gotten rid of a lot of weak longs, it’s created a lot of doubt, a lot of people. So I’ve got to go back to 50 now goals got to go back to 3, 500 etc etc and that’s what you want to see because when a market Goes parabolic like that, that we were arguing, it’s usually because the doubters who prevailed now suddenly rejoin in an orgy like manner.

Okay. And the public that’s never been involved in silver and gold, especially the western public, us public, a lot of other parts of the world are, will want to join in. But at that point the market’s lost its sellers. They’ve already sold. So you get what a wet bar of soap phenomenon. Well, it certainly means it should be in line for an exciting summer. And Michael, here’s an interesting one that I would be excited to ask you about as I heard your forecast and than listen to what you were suggesting. I guess when I thought about what would be required, I mean in terms of what we saw when you were saying why specifically last year, I think there’s a degree to which those deficits added up and we did have those actual disturbances in the London market also we’ve seen that in China.

So in terms of to get to 3 to 500, just intuitively I would think, well he probably needs some sort of disruption in the silver supply chain and perhaps also a debt crisis which unfortunately both seem like well on track. And it’s interesting I wanted to ask you if you had thoughts on that premium we’ve seen in Shanghai. And what’s fascinating, we see the India premium has jumped back up. That came down. So we’re seeing some indications of something unusual. And then in terms of the bond market, I don’t know if we’re in crisis zone yet, although I’ve heard that’s one of the things that you mentioned certainly is on your forecast.

So do those events play together or how does that all work? Do you think gold is gold, the mama monetary metal. I don’t call them precious metals by the way. Call them monetary metals. They’re not platinum and palladium. Gold is over money, okay? They have been for thousands of years and silver is the poor man’s gold. Okay? These come and go events and well this is not come and go with the what you’re showing there. India and China pricing versus US indicates, you know, a supply deficit problem, a squeeze type situation. Their major consumers are silver too.

China especially solar production where they constitute like 80, 90% of global solar panel production, okay? And there’s silver throughout the thing and that is one of the key industrial demands now and it’s increasing and increasing, yet supply is not. One of the reasons is silver supply doesn’t come from silver miners. Yes, there are some, but most of the silver comes from base metal. Miners. So to incentivize a base metal miner to get more silver, you can’t do it. He’s getting copper out of the ground or some other base metal. So his, his driving force is the profit he makes on that metal.

And just so happens as a secondary or byproduct, he gets silver as well. So he’s not pressured directly by rising silver prices to produce more silver. It’s peripheral and that has not changed much. And that’s one of the unique positives for silver in that the normal if you take price up, it increases supply. Right, okay. Well, in this case it’s got a unique situation. And I think to some extent that’s being reflected in India and China. I understand India may even be wanting to move to, as a monetary thing, silver. So as we enter a new period here, which we think is also underway, where issues like AI and semiconductor strength, very isolated by the way, compared to all the other indexes within the market, which are not making new highs, by the way, that you’ve got a problem there.

Especially in the financial sector when we measure it. Technically, the financial sector is doing almost precisely what it did in 2007. What we do is we not only measure the trend factors under the xlf, for example, the broad financial sector, which includes banks, broker dealers, insurance companies, et cetera, et cetera, not just measure its trend and its momentum dynamics, but we measure its relationship to the S and P. This is important for silver, by the way, and gold, it has been deteriorated. First off, after the 2007 peak in XLF, which peaked like early in the year that year and then dropped.

S and P made a high in the early part of 2007 and also dropped into the summer. Then the S and P turned around in September and October, made a new all time high. XLF rallied, but didn’t make an all time new high. Couldn’t get back to its high. Okay, can you even see it on the price chart that XLF is not as strong as it’s a key sector? After all, you can’t dismiss the financials, okay? And when you plot a spread chart between the price of XLF divided into the S P and plot it month to month over the past decades, Tom, you’ll see that that spread started to collapse in 2007, warning you that something’s going on in the financial sector.

And yet S P is up there beating his chest like, oh boy, I’m going forever. Okay? I think we’re in a similar situation right now because the financial sector has blown out multi Decade lows this month relative to the S P, which if you bought the XLF as opposed to the S P, you’re way behind. S P is leading. The only reason for that is a few sectors within the S P like semiconductors and AI are causing that leadership. It’s not like there’s six sectors that are doing. It’s one, tech, okay? Industrials aren’t beating it. They’re going down relatively only as a small number of companies within that tech sector.

Yeah, so in other words, I call it the S and P5, okay? That’s what’s making new highs. Okay, but nobody’s aware that all he hears all the market made a new high. No, the market quote unquote did not make a new high. S&P5 did. Okay, but when you go to all the sectors, the major sectors within the S and P, financials, industrials, transportation, etc. They’re imploding on a relative basis to the S and P. This is what happened in 2007 prior to it becoming obvious in 2008 that oops, we get a bear market. Okay? When that happens, the Fed gets data points that they want that justify that mandate to cut, cut, cut.

And they have another unwritten mandate that the BOJ has demonstrated in play. That is we got to defend the government debt market. We don’t have a mortgage crisis, we got a government bond crisis. And that we think is the biggest issue right now is what the bonds are doing. Long term bonds. Yeah, well we’ve seen those yields creep up since the war began and multi decade highs, multi decade highs right now. So with that said, Michael, it’s interesting to be talking with you today. I’ve been in the process of, without going into details, moving money from one place to another, another basically making a pretty, at least for me, a decent sized bet on the mining stocks under the premise that basically if you have bullion, stay even at the levels that we’re at, let alone if you go substantially higher.

And I’m of the school of thought when I look at what’s going on in the world, hard for me to see a lower gold price ten years from now. So at the time of taking the steps to do that, and I was thinking, gee, if silver hits 3 to 500 bucks, what are some of these mining stocks doing? So I know you’ve talked about that, obviously that would seemingly be good times for the miners. If you have any thoughts, is it still we feel like they haven’t caught up or did they just go nuts? And I think they’re going to explode relative to gold explode.

And again, it’s a valuation. You know, you go back in the 1980s, 90s, 2000, and you look where XAU index was in terms of its price relation to gold. It was oscillating sideways in a broad range. But the average value of XAU divided into gold rest as a percent was 25%. Because it was about 25% the price of an ounce of gold. XAU price, okay, up and down, not up and down, but at that level, that zone. It broke down in 2008. It collapsed by 2015. During the gold and silver bear market, the miners collapsed too, but more, they dropped to 4%.

Okay. This is a sector that used to have 25% of the value of an ounce of gold as its price divided into gold and drops to 4%. I mean, what are you going to do? Go to zero? I mean, that’s called free. You know, effectively the miners were free. Okay, what kind of downside risk do you have is something that was at 25 and goes to 4. Okay. They’re not going to go out of existence. We need gold miners and silver miners. Right? Okay. For 11 years that spread the value of the gold and silver miners.

XAU index versus gold is oscillated in a narrow range between about 5%. On the low end, it was a 4% low reading, but ultimately leveled off at 5 for 11 years and a high is just above 8%. Still, they’re cheap. Okay. Right now we’re, we’re just below 8% still. We’re pushing toward the upper end of that range. We also measure the same thing with the GDX ETF versus gold and we get a similar picture. It won’t take much in terms of relative gain. They’ve been gaining over the last few years. The miners have beat gold, by the way.

They’ve gone from the lower end of that range to the upper end. That’s pretty decent move. It’s like buying a stock at 5 and it goes to 8. Okay, that’s a decent percent. But if you break out of that range, we argue that technically the miners will explode in relative value to gold. And we think that likely you could get doubling and tripling easily in the miners versus their current price level. But the main issue is that it’s a better place to be than gold itself. They’re now going to. Just like silver has been underpriced to gold for 50 years, gold keeps making new highs.

Silver was stuck at 50, says I’m out of here. Okay, tantrum time. The miners effectively the same situation. And, and, and if you look at their profits, she’s. It’s off the page. I mean everybody talks about higher oil prices right now. Oil as a percent of the cost of production of miners is off the page, cheap compared to history. So even oil, where it is now in 90 something is not denting the profits of the miners. The per ounce price of gold is off the page or sold. They’re still doing all right. Yeah. Although. Yeah, good.

Well, I guess here’s the question is what. Let’s say we get to 3 to 500. What’s on the other side of that? I mean, is there pullback at some point? If you’re sitting there, let’s say you have mining stocks and we wake up one day and the price of silver is 400 bucks. At what point do you sell some? It’s a good, good, good issue. But it’s, here’s our argument. This is not a normal bull market. Monetary metals, we’ve gone through boom bust cycles for 110 years thanks to the Fed. They create boom bust monetary situations that are expressed some oftentimes in the stock market by helping fuel the stock market by floods of liquidity.

And often investors choose to put it there until it gets to a point of excess and then they suddenly say, oh, more risk, less reward. I’m gonna go somewhere else. The miners are dirt cheap compared to that and they’re underpriced. Like silver is to gold. The miners are to gold as well. Gold and silver. And when they come out of that box, that containment box, basing range on the relative performance chart and clear, let’s say 8 and a half percent. XAU divided into gold. And GDX has some levels too that indicate it’s breaking out of its 10 year wide range of performance.

Expect explosive price net volatility on the upside as well, not just the spread gaining. In fact, this is what happened to silver last November. Silver had a 10 year wide range where you could plot the ounce of silver into an ounce of gold, express it as a percent. And silver was laboring from just below 1% of the price of gold up to like 1 and a half or something. And it took out the top of that range in October and November. Well, where was silver in price in November? 56 bucks was the close that month. Okay, the spread broke out.

Then what happened after that? 120 bucks so fast you didn’t want to hit you. In other words, the spread warned you that silver’s about to throw A tantrum. The miners are in the same position now. They haven’t broken out yet, but when they break out of their basing range, you’ll not only get relative performance gain where they do two, three times better in gold, but price acceleration as well. So my own personal portfolio is about 50% silver unlevered and 50% miners, mostly silver miners because I think the silver miners already, they are, they’re beating the gold miners.

Over the last six months they’ve broken out versus the gold miners. Reflective of silver breaking out versus gold. So that’s a play, A good point. That’s a place to be the miners. Yes. Well, I think you just made a lot of people’s summer a little bit more exciting. So I’m sitting here getting giddy. I’m like, geez, we’re waiting on our signal, have quite a July 4th party. Well, well once, once we get our signal, our subscribers will know because that’s the point where we pound the table and say, okay, wake up time. It’s about to resume.

Now again, we’re number sensitive so we want to see our trigger levels hit. It doesn’t take a lot. It does not take a lot. Hopefully we’ll be able to get you live from your massive yacht on July 4, which would be fun. Michael, one last one for you here. Aside from the gold and silver, I think just from a market, market student and historian perspective, I think the second half of 2026, what I think will be truly fascinating is seeing how the Fed juggles the fact that inflation’s already going up, you have the higher energy prices when you know, I know Trump was drooling basically to get interest rates cut.

So how they’re going to navigate that. I heard you mention, I believe you’ve said you think we’re going to get some rate hikes which. No, no, no, no. Rate cuts. Rate cuts. That they would be cut first. They have to. Yeah. Even if it’s not their mandates, the implicit mandate is you’ve got to defend the government bond debt market. If you don’t, the house burns down. So you got to get the hoses up. By the way, I didn’t answer your question before. What do you do after the move occurs in silver? Okay, yes. What I plan to do is take some profits, but I’m going to put it in cash.

And by cash I mean gold bullion. Okay. There will. I think you’re going to a new reality and I think you’re going to be up there. Yes, you’ll have some sharp corrections, but you ain’t coming back to 50 bucks once you get up into that zone. Yes, you can have some corrections, but the main point right now for investors is catch that move. What you don’t want to be doing is buying silver at 400 and then crying when you go back to 300 or something. Okay. You’ve got to be there at the right time otherwise it’s not going to be a slow train where.

Oh, come on board. Yeah, sure, take your time. No, anyway, therefore the answer to that question, which I didn’t answer was I think a new reality is going to occur up there. Many fundamental assumptions about politics, about institutions, about the existence of a Fed. Non gold backed money backed by nothing that’s going to come into doubt here, there and pretty soon Maybe even the U.S. in fact, I understand there’s quite a few states now that have legalized as tender gold and silver, which in effect is a rebellion, telling the Fed hey, you guys don’t own, don’t control all the money.

We’re allowing gold and silver to be used as money. So things like that will occur. But what will happen spark that will be like a government debt crisis, a stock market rollover which we’re expecting, and ultimately a bear market. Those kind of things will shake and rattle the average person and government agencies. We’ll go to a new reality, I think. Yeah, we’ve seen Hank Paulson, Jamie Dimon, some prominent in the Wall street community, voices warning about that. And in either case, Michael, I sure thank you for making some time to dig into this today and I will pull up your site and perhaps just you could let folks know the best way to stay up to date on your research and what certainly could be quite an exciting next couple of months.

Olivermsa.com yeah, take your time. We have an unorthodox technical methodology and we explain it fairly well there and ask for some sample copies. Thank you Chris. Well, thank you. And the link to Momentum Structural analysis which you could find@olivermsa.com or if you don’t even want to wear your fingers out, just click in the description field below. And Michael, I sure appreciate you making some time. Great to see you as always. And we’ll catch up in a couple of months. Could be, could be quite a summer. Yep, thanks Chris. Thank you my friend. Well, thank you to Michael Oliver certainly could be setting us up for quite an exciting summer.

And I am joined here by David Stein of Kuya Silver, our resident mining stock genius and analyst. David, you run Cuya Silver now, although as you mentioned, before your background was as a mining stock analyst first. So you’ve seen this from both sides. And just since it was something that Michael mentioned in our interview, he talked about the mining stocks a bit. And I’m just curious if we had three or five hundred dollars silver this summer, what, what the mining stock environment would look like and any thoughts or insight you could pass along. So I could spend the rest of my weekend daydreaming about that.

Yeah, obviously. Fun, fun thing to think about. I think to start off, everything would go up. Every, every silver stock would go up. Every. Even probably companies with not very much silver would go up and, but then from there obviously you know, you don’t want to buy everything. You want to pick some stocks that would outperform. I think a lot of early money in that rally would start going into large cap companies like First Majestic. You know, these guys already have pretty healthy multiples when you look at where they’re trading at on the EBITDA basis. But obviously as, as, as the silver price goes up, they’re going to make more money.

So the multiples would probably continue to go up in that, in that way and you know, they’re more liquid. So again, a lot of the, if, if people are not sure about a rally, they’ll usually go into the big ones first because they know if they change their mind tomorrow they can sell. Right. So that’s where a lot of the early money goes. I think if you, if you, if you want to really outperform the rally though or, or the, the, the silver price longer term, a really great strategy would be to go into like the junior producers that are not getting that multiple already.

So with, with a, with a First Majestic and I don’t mean to pick on them but obviously they’re a famous big silver miner. They’re already getting the 20 times EBITDA multiple based on their current production. So if Silver goes from 75 to let’s say, let’s say 350 okay. Or 300 okay. Because that’s exactly four times where we are today. So 300. So then their stock should go up 4x if they maintain that, that, that same, that same EBITDA ratio. Okay. Where a company like Kuya and some, maybe some of the other juniors is as well. We’re not getting those multiples yet because the market’s sort of not giving us credit for any cash flow, at least not yet.

So we’ll have the, we would have the jump up for the multiple expansion plus we would have the jump up for that re rating from going from a, you know, developer into a producer kind of category that we haven’t seen yet. So I think you, then you sort of get, you win twice. But with a company like Kuya and that’s the way you would potentially really outperform in a 300 to $500 silver price scenario. Yeah. And David, as we have on Wednesday morning, a 74, 73 futures. So down a bit today. Although let’s say we got, let’s call it 375.

So you have a five bagger. Silver actually went up that high. I think what a lot of people go to the mining stocks for is that, you know, if you look at the leverage you should be getting more than five bags. And we hear the old timers talk about, you know, the stocks that they got 10 or 50 baggers back in the day. And you know, it’s like on one hand these types of silver moves are somewhat rare. But if we’re talking about an environment where we got to three or 400, would you expect that we would have, if it’s a 4 or 5x move in the silver price that the majority of silver stocks would be moving 10 or 20x or would it be more in line with a 4 or 5x? What do you think about something like that? I, I, I think apart from the initial move, I think once you get there then the, this, then the, the smaller companies are going to outperform.

They’re going to give you more than a 5x. Now whether it’s 10x or 20x depends on probably the where, where the company’s starting from. But that’s where you’re going to get the biggest bang for the buck. I think the, the bigger, the bigger stocks they will, they will trade in line with silver. They will get a lot of the early inflows because of the liquidity. But then what typically happens is almost imagine like a, a series of pools with, with a waterfall cascading down them. So once that pool fills up these com, these stocks just can’t be worth any more than what you know than 20 or 25 times.

The multiple isn’t going to go to 50 times. So then the water spills over and, and people start to invest in the next level down. Right. And, and you know, you can do that for gold, you can do that for silver. And so I think the, the, the smaller companies are going to benefit disproportionately. And again, as an investor myself, I would prefer a junior producer over an explorer co or a developer because then you introduce a lot of other non silver price related risk. When you’re looking at a developer, you know, is it going to get its permits? Is it in a country that doesn’t whatever.

Right. You know, so I think that if you’re starting from the position of already producing in a much better risk reward in that, in that scenario. Well, it sounds so exciting. Multi hundred dollar silver waterfalls I have to say when I was recording with Michael, just as I was listening to him talk, I was thinking like wow, this would be fantastic and I guess we will see what the future holds. But anyway, I think it’s still been a great year for silver investors, David. I know we’re going to catch up again next week especially you’ve given us a few scoops about things happening locally in the Indian and Chinese markets, especially now the India premium above the Chinese premium.

Although I think that has a lot to do with some of the recent changes there. And I know you’ve been speaking to people on the ground. So if you’re watching at home that is a great reason to hit the subscribe button and the notification bell and, and we will catch up with you to talk more about that next week. I’ll also mention again you are joining us from Kuya Silver which is found@kuyasilver.com and your in production Bethania Mine in Peru. So we’ll also look forward to an update on how things are going there and any final thoughts before we wrap up here, David? Well look, I’m looking forward to the 300 to $500 price though that Michael Oliver predicted.

I think we’re very well positioned for that and I think our, the viewers are gonna do, do very well in, in that scenario. So I’m, I’m happy for all of us. Yeah. And I’ll just also say that I think it gets lost but because a lot of people are thinking, all right, silver went to 121 bucks, now it’s back at 75. Yet for the average silver mining company it would have been like a fantasy camp if we had $40 silver last year let alone at the current levels. And I mean it’s intriguing whether you end up with multi hundred dollar silver just to have a couple quarters roll in and see earnings at these levels.

I think we’ll do plenty just that let alone if things go silver gone wild this summer which could be fun. And most importantly David, I will look forward to catching up with you and discussing it as we go along. So thanks for joining me here and thank you at home for watching. And we will see you again next week.
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