And the USDA just confirmed it. The lowest wheat acreage in 107 years of recorded data. This is already bad from the Iran fertilizer crisis, but it’s getting worse, and you feel it now, or some people are seeing it, but most people won’t see it until it’s too late. So let’s break it down. A couple examples. Tommy Salisbury, farms in Oklahoma, leads the Farm Bureau’s Young Farmers and Ranchers Program. He said it on record. We are paying input prices of 2026, but we’re getting crop prices from the 70s and 80s. Lorenda Overman farms in North Carolina.

Her fertilizer and nitrogen costs have jumped massively per acre. The same land, the same crop, but it’s costing her 56% more to grow it. The price that she’ll get for what she harvests is actually hasn’t moved. Those prices are the same. These aren’t economists reading charts. These are people standing in fields right now running numbers that don’t add up. Planting crops they know they’re going to lose money on because the alternative is not planting at all and losing the land possibly. On March 31st, the USDA confirmed what the farmers already knew. The prospective plantings report, based on surveys of nearly 74,000 farm operators, showed all wheat planted areas at 43.8 million acres.

This is the lowest level since records began in 1919. 107 years of American agriculture, the country just recorded its lowest wheat planting in the entire history of that data. And what most people don’t realize is that this report was captured before the worst of the fertilizer spike hit because the survey was taken in the first two weeks of March. You got to line this up with what’s going on in Iran. The number you’re looking at is the optimistic version. The June update is where the real damage is going to show. Two items are at the front of this cascade.

I’ll get to those. But first, you need to understand why the planting data is worse than what the report shows. So who’s telling you it’s fine when it isn’t? And what the farmers themselves are doing right now? And if you’re a farmer watching this, are you on a ranch? Please put down in the comments below what you’re seeing so that I can use those to further warn or tell people the facts, the real boots on the ground info. Your comments are very valuable to me. So Josh Linville, VP of Fertilizer at StoneX Group, posted the six-week damage report from the Hormuz closure on April 10th.

Said Urea was up 49%, Liquid Nitrogen up 38%, and I always mess this word up, and Andryth’s Ammonia is up 32%. Also gaps up 21%. Those are the four inputs that determine whether a crop grows to full yield or comes in thin. Every one of them spiked after the survey was taken. The USDA’s own break, even the math tells you that those numbers do a farmer’s decision for them. They just don’t plan. Corn costs $5 per bushel to grow in 2026. Seeds, fertilizer, fuel, land, labor. It will sell for $4.20 a bushel. So what are farmers going to do? They’re not going to plant.

Soybeans cost $127 to produce. I think that’s a per acre price. They’ll sell for $10.30. Some crazy number. The government is publishing data showing American farmers are growing food below the cost of production. The American Farm Bureau Federation surveyed farmers directly. 70% of them say they can’t afford enough fertilizer this season. Only 19% of southern farmers pre-ordered ahead of this spike. And I actually personally know a farmer that didn’t pre-order. And what was it? In the beginning of April, he said his fertilizer cost had doubled, so he wasn’t planning on doing a whole lot of planting.

See, 78% said they can’t afford what they need. 48% of Midwest farmers are in the same position. So what are they doing? Well, they’re cutting wheat. The most nitrogen-hungry grain because the nitrogen costs are prohibitive. So shifting to soybeans are cheaper to grow. Lower amounts of fertilizer needed. Soybean acres are up 4%, but more soybean acres doesn’t mean more food on the shelf. An economist, an AFDF economist, Faith Pumm, said when producers can’t afford full fertilizer application rates to be able to put it through this full cycle of the growing season, they may reduce nutrient use or shift acreage decisions, both of which increase the risk of lower yields.

They’re planting soybeans because it’s cheaper, not because the market needs them. And the soybeans are getting planted, are receiving thinner fertilizer. More acres, less nitrogen per acre, higher risk of a thin harvest. On the wheat and corn that does go into the ground, nitrogen spread thinner, weaker plants, lower per acre yield, more vulnerability to drought and pests, and 50% of winter wheat acres are already under drought conditions, which is up 37% as of the same time last year. Three pressures compounding on the same crop simultaneously, and the relief isn’t coming fast. Linville at Stonex says it takes 30 days to get a vessel of urea to load in the Persian Gulf, sail it over here, hit US shores, and then another three to four weeks to move that product into the interior.

The Window for Spring application has closed. The damage that was created by the blockade couldn’t have come at the worst time, and it is going to cause prices at the grocery store to go up exponentially in the late summertime. This is coming as high fuel has racked the nation, yet one more input cost of getting that food to the grocery store. This is why I’m saying it is so important, so vital right now, not to panic, but why not have a little bit extra food on hand? Why not buy food with today’s dollars, and if I’m wrong, and the prices go down, right, or they don’t go up strategically, you still bought that food.

You’re good. But if I’m right, and the price rises ever so much, even just another 10% or 20% in the grocery store, you’ve just crushed the returns on stock market indexes. And I know it’s not a lot of money, but what it’s going to buy is peace of mind. When you have that peace of mind this summer, then I’m going to be able to show you how to make money from all this tragedy, because all the people that didn’t pay attention, that are not going to be able to make their car payments, their house payments, all this stuff, there’s going to be opportunities and all that.

I do want to tell you one opportunity is happening in crypto right now, and so if you want, the link’s down below to the crypto sniper course, how to set up for positions and to take advantage of these sharp drops on specific days that happen for specific reasons, but you’re going to learn how to take advantage of them and sell them back from the market, right when it goes back up. Alright, with that being said, thank you so much for watching. The Economic Ninja is out. [tr:trw].

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