And when does the value of the debt go down the most? When it can no longer be paid. And now that debt is so high, when interest rates go high, the debt can no longer be paid. In the 1980s, when interest rates were last double digits, the debt could be paid, and therefore the dollar retained its value. But this time, that is not possible. We’re going to see what’s happening in Japan with long-term debt there, over to the UK with long-term debt there, and back to the US with long-term debt there, on which the dollar is based, and when debt goes by by, the dollar does too.

Because there are two sides of the same non-existent coin. When it becomes obvious that the debt will no longer be paid when you start seeing default lines lining up, and banks starting to fall, the Fed will buy the rest of it, and that will shoot the moon, and the entire fiat system will implode. Judging by technical levels already broken, in Japan, in the UK, in America, arguably the three central pillars of the fiat system, gold and silver, will take the place of the dollar as money, because there will be no other choice at all.

Before we get to the slides, this video is brought to you by my sub-stack. Check it out at endgameinvestor.substack.com. We have some short ideas on the markets, which I will hint at in one of these slides. If you want to know what I’m doing there, check out the endgame investor on sub-stack. Also, check out the dirty man safe. Use the code endgame10 at checkout for 10% off your dirty man safe. Take some of your gold and silver and bury it somewhere and don’t tell anybody. Very low tech, pretty secure. If you want to buy some gold and silver before the fiat system implodes completely, then check out Miles Franklin.

Link at the description below and mention the endgame investor. Here we go. Japan’s 10-year yields near the 1987 resistance zone. Why do I focus on Japan? Because Japan is the glue that keeps the entire global Keynesian system together. That is, since 1945, when America decided to nuke them and make them their financial … in so many words. Well, what you see here is the break of 2.8 hits the 1987 resistance zone for yields over here and we’re hitting also this resistance. Would you call it support? No, it’s resistance over here in the late 90s.

When we pass this, what’s the next zone here? It looks like maybe 3% something and then there’s really nothing holding the yields back until we get to maybe five. So why is that a problem for Japan so acutely? Well, their debt-to-GDP ratio is like 260%. It’s the highest in the world. And why is debt losing value so much now so fast? And that has to do with Sanayetakeichi promising gasoline subsidies because of the straight Hormuz debacle where they can’t get their gas or their energy from Hormuz because it’s stuck there because of the war.

And Japan is almost entirely reliant on Hormuz for its oil. If you think this is bad, check out the Japanese 30-year debt yield. It’s going pretty much parabolic. It’s at 4.106. It’s basically been going vertical since 2020 with a few fits and starts over here. But this is an all-time high for Japanese 30-year debt. It’s not looking good for Japan and once Japan falls, once their debt market falls, the whole carry trade is unwound and this will have profound consequences for the entire fiat system. I don’t see how it can survive without the Japanese domino staying steady and it is falling over.

And now this chart from Trading Economics is the central bank balance sheet. So we can see here at this point in October 2024, that was the all-time high for the Japanese for the Bank of Japan balance sheet at 765,000 billion yen. What’s a thousand billion trillion? 765 trillion yen and now it is down to 663 trillion yen. So what’s the difference in there? I put it in the title. 102,000 billion yen sold at a loss. That’s 102 trillion yen. One jillion dollars. Sir, that’s not a number. Sold at a loss.

Why do I say sold at a loss? Because yields were a lot lower on this debt in August 2024. Now they are a lot higher. So all of these sales have happened at a loss. That means the Bank of Japan is bleeding cash and that is the cause of hyperinflation from a balance sheet perspective. Remember, a currency is the liability printed by the central bank. If the central bank is losing money, then the currency is losing value and once they become bankrupt, to the central bank, the currency hyperinflates to nothing.

That is already in the process of happening. There’s really nothing that Japan can do at this point at all. Nothing at all. Nothing at all. Nothing at all. Nothing at all. Ten year yields. Now this we’re going back to the United States and from there we’ll go to the United Kingdom. Ten year yields near a technical outbreak on this triangle formation. You can see here’s the lower bound over here from 2023 and here’s the upper bound from late 2023. Here are the highs at about 5% on the 10 year yield and we have now hit, what is that number? It’s 4.6%.

This is the upper trend line. If this is broken, we’re going to break through it and we’re going to be in a new range. We’ll see if we break through it. This is three, four year resistance, three year resistance. It is on the verge of breaking out here and when debt yields go higher and a debt environment such as we are in, that is when bond markets fail. UK 10 year yields, they break the upper trend line. So the US is almost breaking the upper trend line. UK has already done so.

We can see here we broke through at 5.111% and we have here the same sort of triangle formation. Not triangle, what is it? It’s a channel. Oh, whatever you call these. I’m not a technical trader. I don’t know what the things are. But anyway, you can see here that we just barely broke through it and that means that UK long term yields are headed much higher from here. So their debt markets are also imploding. And the 30 year yield in the UK, we can see that there was long term resistance over here in yields from 2000 to 2002, 2003 and we bounced off of that resistance in 2025, early 2026.

I think this is actually March 2026 when the war started, when the Iranian stuff started. Now that resistance is now support. 30 year yields have bounced strongly off of that support probably for the last time and now we’re at 5.771. I think this is a few days old so we could be even higher than that now. But back to the US, 10 year minus the three month yield spread is now at recession levels. This chart is also a little bit old. This is 0.76 here where that red line is. Now I think we’re at 0.92, 0.93.

So we’re even higher than we are here. And you can see here in this area of right below one, we’re even closer to one now. So imagine it’s like just slightly higher. But you get the point all these red circles are where the gray shaded areas, the last recessions have happened. You can see this is the last time in the 80s when the double dip recession happened and the 1990 recession and the 2000 recession and the 2008 great financial crisis and even arguably the COVID lockdowns. But once we get to these levels, the next Keynesian style recession is pretty much assured.

We are still seeing bubbling stock markets in almost every country, especially in Japan and the United States, even in Israel where there is an act of war and most of the workforce is actively involved in the army right now. So I don’t know how stocks would be climbing to record highs, but that’s what bubbles do. They don’t make any sense and they’re not making any sense now and they will end. And before we sign off here, there’s one more chart that surprised even me. I’ve been looking for any sector that has been outperforming gold since 2001, since the gold bear market bottom of February 2001 at about $252 and I actually found one.

And you can say that this doesn’t really count because it hasn’t outperformed. This sector has not outperformed gold since 2000, but it has since 2001. So we’ll just give it that and we’ll say, look here. So this is the gold to SOX is the semiconductor index. That’s the AI stocks, the tech stocks, Nvidia, those kinds of things. So the lower this goes, the more expensive these stocks are relative to gold. So we see here, here’s the 2001, February 2001 bottom at where’s the number here, it looks like to be 0.42. And where are we now? We are at 0.40.

0.40 and 0.42 from the February 2001 bottom in gold. That means that just barely, just barely semiconductors have outpaced gold since 2001. So would you been better off buying gold or buying semiconductors, Nvidia, and other stocks in that index? You would have been better off buying the bubble, but this is the last bubble that is outpacing gold and we’ll see. And once it pops, everything else goes with it. All in all, we have the US, Japan, and the UK all teetering on the edge of debt collapse. Debt is the dollar because the Federal Reserve owns mostly debt.

Debt is the yen because the Bank of Japan owns mostly debt, its own debt. Once these central banks go bankrupt, once the debt markets start to crack and the central banks step in and buy the junk as they do during every crisis, that’s going to be it for the dollar and the pound and the euro and the yen and every other currency on the planet. The only thing left standing as a monetary medium will be money itself. Gold and silver, because everything else is a derivative of that.

The pyramid falls, you go back to the floor and all of this stuff remains because it’s just a financial crisis. It’s not the end of all assets, it’s just the end of the dollar and everything else becomes denominated in money itself, so you should probably get some. If you like this and you want to hear my religious thoughts on money and government, check out the Patreon at patreon.com slash endgameinvestor. I teach a biblical lesson there on money and economics about once a week, sometimes once every two weeks, depending on what I have time to do.

And I’ll see you guys next week. Bond. Bond. James Bond. Bond. Bond. Bond. Bond, bye-bye! Bond. [tr:trw].

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