➡ The economy is experiencing a shockwave due to the rise and fall of oil prices, which has affected various sectors like trucking, manufacturing, and construction. This has led to increased costs for businesses and consumers, and these effects are still being felt even after the oil prices have stabilized. The Federal Reserve is caught in a difficult situation where they have to choose between fighting inflation or stimulating growth, both of which have negative consequences. This situation is further complicated by the government’s increasing debt and the need to print more money to pay its bills.
➡ When the Federal Reserve expands the money supply, it doesn’t affect all assets equally. This can split the market, with some assets like stocks suffering due to decreased earnings, while others like Bitcoin benefit directly from the increased liquidity. This is because Bitcoin, unlike traditional businesses, doesn’t have earnings or margins to lose, making it a pure monetary asset that can absorb the increased liquidity directly. This makes the same event bearish for stocks but bullish for Bitcoin.
➡ Bitcoin’s two-year rolling return has dipped negative for the fourth time in its history, which in the past has signaled a great time to buy. Despite the negative return, Bitcoin’s value has consistently increased over time, with each dip followed by a significant rise. This pattern, combined with increased demand from ETFs and companies holding Bitcoin, suggests a strong future for the cryptocurrency. Despite the current negative return, big institutions are buying Bitcoin aggressively, indicating their confidence in its potential.
➡ If you know someone who doubts the cost, feel free to share this with them. Don’t forget to leave your thoughts in the comments. Wishing you success, I’m signing off.

There’s a shockwave moving through the economy and most people can’t see it because the headlines, they’re telling them that the crisis is over. But look, if it’s over, why are construction companies losing money on jobs they already signed? Why have trucking fuel surcharges gone up and not come back down? Why is the Homebuilding index, one of the most important indexes to look at, sitting near its March lows after the ceasefire is over? So in this video, I’m going to show you exactly where this shockwave started. We’re going to look at how it’s moving through the economy right now.

Why, why it’s about to crush one side of the market and fuel the biggest opportunity on the other. And of course, how to make sure you’re on the right side. You ready? Let’s go. Okay, now, so to understand what’s going to happen, we have to go back to the beginning. So let’s go back to when all of this started. Like, we’ll go back to, like when the tensions with Iran first started escalating. And we saw that Brent crude, the price has surged past $140 a barrel. Crazy spike. But now it’s come back down, it’s pulled back down to around in the 96 to 100 range.

Now, that’s since the ceasefire, the Iran ceasefire has been signed. Now, if you’re watching the news, you think that’s the end of the story. Great, Right. Like, I mean, I think we’re sort of past most of that. It’ll be a little bit turbulent and that’d be the end of the story. And markets can get back to normal, right? Well, not necessarily. You see, when oil went up and then, of course, oil came back down. The crisis isn’t just over like that. There’s a shock wave. Right? And here’s what, here’s what this means and here’s what the news isn’t telling you.

When oil hit $140 a barrel, every trucking company in America and, and around the world, every shipping company, they adjusted their fuel surcharges. They had. They had to. Right? Because fuel is the single biggest expense, the single biggest cost that they have. So now the thing is, is that, you know, the fuel surcharges is that they went up fast and they don’t just come back down. Right. They’re sticky. That’s what we call them. So even though oil pulled back the surcharges, they’re still there. And those are on every single product that moves on the truck. Every single product that moves on the sea, which is, yeah, it’s basically everything that you buy and everything that you buy just got permanently repriced.

So now think about this, like, follow the chain. Think about like a, like a snake that’s eating a rat as it goes through. And we can follow these prices going through the chain. So what happens is those higher shipping costs, they hit manufacturers, but manufacturers are locked into contracts. So, you know, they signed those months ago at the old prices, so they can’t renegotiate. So now they eat the loss and, you know, they absorb that, but then that comes out of their margins and then, you know, of course they’re going to pass that forward on the next pricing cycle, which means the inflation you’re going to feel at the store six months from now is already locked in today.

But the worst hit, and this is the one that you don’t really see anybody talking about, is construction. I said at the beginning, the construction index is one of the most important. And so if you’re a contractor who, you know, you signed a fixed bid contract maybe months ago, you’re legally obligated to finish that project at today’s material prices. So you can’t go back to the client and say, like, hey, you know, lumber still prices went up 20%. I need more money. The contract is the contract, so you’re forced to eat it. And then, you know, right now there’s thousands of contractors across the country who are losing money on every single day of work.

And this isn’t just like a theory, right? We can look at the Home Building Index and we can see right now it’s sitting all the way back near its March lows, and that’s again after the ceasefire’s over. And so what that data tells us, the market’s telling us, is that, yeah, the ceasefire’s here and, yeah, things can get back to normal. But it didn’t fix this, right? Because when energy spiked the shock wave again, it repriced trucking and then trucking, it repriced manufacturing. And manufacturing is repricing construction, and construction is repricing housing again, like a snake, right? And so you don’t see this in the headline.

It’s not just a headline anymore, it’s a pipeline. And everything in that pipeline, it’s already in motion, regardless if it goes back. That’s the shockwave. It doesn’t need the war to continue in order for that to continue going through. It doesn’t need oil to go back up, right? It’s already in the system it’s already moving from one sector to the next and the next. And if you have money in the economy right now, and of course, of course you do, it’s heading for you. Okay, so again, right, that’s the shock wave as it’s going through energy to trucking, trucking to manufacturing, to construction, to housing, all in that pipe, right? And ending the war just doesn’t fix that.

It could cause it to get worse, but it doesn’t reverse it. And the thing about the pipeline is again, it creates this trap. So you’re stuck in that. And the people that are caught in that trap are the ones who are supposed to be protecting your money. What am I talking about here? I’m talking about the Federal Reserve. We’ve been talking about that, that trap for a while. Between, between a rock and a hard place. You see, the Fed, they have one main tool, money, but really the price of money or the cost of money or interest rates.

So they have rates that go up and they slow inflation down, or rates could go down and then that’s supposed to stimulate growth. Pretty simple, right? But what happens when you have both problems at the same time? Now, right now, the Fed’s staring at two options, or let’s call them two doors. Now, unfortunately for them, both, Both of the doors lead to bad outcomes. So door number one, right, they, they could raise rates. They raise the rates to fight inflation, which is to, to slow things down, right? I showed you that. But that sticky, right, that supply side inflation, it’s baked into every truck, it’s baked into every factory, it’s baked into every construction site.

All right, so you’re fighting inflation, but you’re also crushing an economy that’s already choking on higher input costs, right? Businesses are already losing money on the contracts that they wrote. So if you raise rates on top, well, then you’re going to push them over the edge, right? That’s, that’s called a recession. So if they don’t do that, you have door number two, that’s the other option. And if you do door number two, that’s cutting rates, right? Or maybe holding rates steady or whatever, right? So they’re trying to save growth. Okay, so if you do that, you’re, you’re helping the economy, that’s great.

But now inflation runs even hotter. Now the dollar loses purchasing power even faster. So everything that you’ve saved, everything in your 401k, everything in your bank, your bank account, it buys less and less and less every single month. So the problem is, as you can tell, they’re pretty stuck. So which door do they pick? Well, every single time, all throughout history, the Feds always picked door number two, every single time. The reason why is that they can tolerate inflation more than they can tolerate recession. Right? Because, well, recessions happen on their watch. Recessions make headlines, recessions make sure people don’t get reelected.

But inflation, it’s slow. Inflation is invisible. And they can blame inflation on other things. Like we don’t. It certainly can’t because we increase the money supply. Right? Remember back to the Biden admin, we had 9% CPI. It certainly isn’t because we printed trillions of dollars, right? Certainly not that. Now this is what we call the principal agent problem. You see, you’re the principal. It’s your money, it’s your purchasing power, it’s your retirement. But the Fed, the Fed’s the agent. The agent is the one making the decisions. You see, and their incentive is not the same as your incentive.

Their incentive is to, is to avoid the headline. Your incentive is to preserve your wealth. And those two things are in direct conflict. So what does door number two, what does door number two actually look like in practice? Well, it looks like more government spending. It looks like government spending to help cushion the blow, more debt issuance. They want to fund the spending that they have a shortfall on. And ultimately it means more money created. More money created to service the debt. And that’s not a prediction. That’s the math of a government that’s almost $40 trillion in debt and it can’t pay its bills without printing more money.

This part right here is, I don’t see anybody talking about this, but this is where the shockwave stops being about the oil, stops being about the trucking and stops being about the construction, and it starts being about the entire monetary system. You see, because when the Fed chooses door number two, and I told you they will, they set off a second shockwave. Now the first one was energy into the supply chain, but the second one is a money supply expansion into every asset that you own. Now what most people don’t understand is they think, well, money printing, you know, and then we get global liquidity goes up and then asset prices go up.

And that’s generally true. What most people don’t realize is that the second shockwave, it doesn’t hit everything at the same time. Right. In fact, it, it’s not just the same time. It literally splits the market right down the middle. So what are we talking about? Well, with this inflation shockwave, you know, that’s hitting the system, because the Fed’s trapped and they’re going to choose door number two every single time. And they, they expand that money supply. Well, yes, it will move asset prices higher, it will push stocks up higher, and it will push up Bitcoin higher and all of those things, right? And we all win.

But it’s not exactly as smooth as that, right? It’s not, it’s not that simple. You see, when the money supply expands, it doesn’t hit all the assets equally at the same time. In fact, this particular setup, the setup that I just talked about, which is supply side inflation forcing a monetary policy response, is one of the very few situations where the same event is actually bearish for one side of the market, but then bullish for the other side. Let’s take a look at why. So if we start with stocks, for example, what is a stock? Well, stock is ownership.

It’s equity, right? It’s ownership in a company. So a stock is a claim on a company’s future earnings. Right? That’s it. So when you buy a share of a company, you’re buying a piece of its future profits. It’s discounted future cash flows. But what happens to those profits when the shockwave hits? Well, like I said, the construction company I told you about, the one that has to eat the losses on the fixed bid contracts, its earnings went down and went negative. The manufacturer, they have to absorb the higher input costs, it can’t pass those through yet.

So its margins, they get crushed. The retailer paying more for shipping on every product in its stores, well, its profits just shrank. And the thing is with timing around here, the timing problem is that the earnings damage is happening right now, today. But the Fed’s response, like the rate cuts, the liquidity, the money supply expansion, that all comes later, right? It always comes later. But the damage is, is done. The damage is fast. The damage is fast, the rescue is slow. So stocks start repricing lower on deteriorating earnings. And that’s before the easing arrives. And by the time the easing shows up, by the time it comes, and it will, what does it actually fix? Well, does cheaper money unbreak the contractor who went upside down on his projects? Does cheaper money restore the margins for a manufacturer who lost money for two straight quarters, does it rehire the workers who had got laid off? No, easing puts money back into the system.

Sure, but the businesses themselves, they’re already impaired. The machine, I don’t know, the machine got dented, Right? And stocks need earnings growth to rally. They need earnings growth, not just cheaper money. The Cheaper money will get them there. Right now the market’s already telling you this, right? The s and P500 sitting down. Currently right now it’s below its 200 day moving average. Last week it started rallying a little bit off of some of the news, which sounds great, right? Except that rally came on fall in volume and what we call narrowing breadth. Basically what that means is that fewer stocks participated in the rally and less money was actually behind it.

And what that actually means is it’s textbook signature when we see that, that it’s a. It’s a kind of move that traps retail investors right before typically the next leg down. Okay, so that’s one side of the split, right. Stocks take the body blow from the inflation shockwave. They start repricing lower on damaged earnings. And even when the easing arrives eventually, which it will, it partially offsets the fundamental damage that was done. Okay, now let’s look at the other side. Now the other side will put Bitcoin there. You see, Bitcoin has no income. There’s no income statement.

What does that mean? Well, Bitcoin has no margins to compress. It has no supply chain to reprice. It has no fuel. You know, fuel surcharges eat into its cost, has no fixed bid contracts that are underwater. It has no earnings to miss. No. No quarterly reports, no disappointments on Wall Street. No one to lay off or rehire. Right. Bitcoin’s a pure monetary asset which is sitting outside of the system that is being damaged. So what happens is, when the Fed opens up door number two, when they expand the money supply to cushion the economic blow, where does the money go? Where does it go first? Well, it goes into stocks where it has to then filter through the broken business before it reaches the share price.

Sure. Or does it go into a scarce asset with a fixed supply, 21 million units, that captures that, that liquidity, like a liquidity sponge, directly. So think about that. The same shockwave, the same event, and on one side it destroys corporate fundamentals, which forces the policy side, the policy response flows directly into Bitcoin. Because there’s no middleman. There’s no broken business model there. There’s nothing standing between liquidity and the price. So that shockwave, the shockwave, it’s bearish for stocks and it’s the same shockwave that’s bullish for Bitcoin. And it’s not a coincidence. Right. It’s the mechanism of how that works.

Right. The thing that breaks traditional assets is the same thing that fuels the monetary expansion that Bitcoin was designed for. That’s the split that we’re talking about. Okay? Now I know at this point some of you are thinking like, okay, Mark, sure, nice theory, but how do I know bitcoin actually does what you’re saying it does? Like when, when does this type of setup appear? Okay, fair question. And you know, I’m not one to just tell you. I like to show you the receipts, as I call them, the charts. So let me show you one chart that I put together.

It’s interactive, that answers one, all of that. Let’s go ahead and let me share my screen right now so you can take a look at this. All right, so this is Bitcoin’s two year rolling return. Now, every single day from 2011 all the way till today, this chart asks one simple question. If you bought bitcoin exactly two years ago, are you up? Are you down? All right, now we can put this zero line on right now and it tells us whether we are in profit above it or below it. So you can see if I click this right here and it adds this line right here and it tells us at what point we were in profit.

But now you’ll notice the first thing for the vast majority of bitcoin’s history is that this line is above zero. Right? You can see that most of the time it’s above zero. The all time high two year return was 42,870% crazy. And that’s not a typo. 42,000. You can see that right here. 42,870% crazy. If you had bought Bitcoin two years before that peak, you’d have turned every dollar into $428. Okay, but that’s not what I’m. That’s not what I want to show you. That’s, that’s the past. What I want to show you are these. Right, take a look at these red zones right here so you can see these red zones.

In 15 years of daily data, thousands and thousands of trading days, this line has only dropped below zero four times. Four times. Now, what happened after each one is the most important pattern in all of bitcoin that I want to bring up to you right now. Okay? Now the first time back here, you can see this was after the 2013 bubble burst. Now, bitcoin had a run up of over $1,000. And then it crashed. By 2015, the media had already moved on. Bitcoin was dead. They said, that’s right about when I came in. I was looking at 2013 and then it crashed.

And around 2015, around 300 bucks is where I came in. And the media was telling us it was dead. I thought maybe it’s a good time to pick some up. Now the two year rolling return bottomed at negative 70. You can see that number right here, negative 70 and it was all the way down here. That means if you’d bought at the peak two years earlier, you were now down 71 cents on every dollar. Pretty bad. Okay, then we had the 2016 halving and that hit. And you can see the 2016 halving is this line right here.

And that means that the new supply gets cut in half. That’s this dotted line right here. And that year, the year that followed was plus 1,369%. 1,369% return in 12 months. Now the second time was post 2017 bubble. So you can see right here we had the 2017 bubble, it came down here. So back here we had the same movie, a different year. Everyone had moved on. Of course. Bitcoin was dead again for the whatever thousand time. The two year return bottoms down here at negative 65. That’s how much you were down from the top. Then Covid came right.

It hits in March 2020, makes even everything worse. And then the 2020 having happened, you can see that’s this dotted. And what followed was the 2020-21 cycle. Now in that was a 560% return. You can see it came all the way back up here. Bitcoin went from under 10,000 to $69,000. So anyone who accumulated during that red zone, this zone right here when the two year return was negative and everyone who said it was over, they, they caught the entire run. Okay, then the third time was post 2021. Post the 2021 bubble, FTX had just blown up.

The entire crypto industry blew up right every it like a laughing stock on late night TV. And two year returns bottomed at negative 64%. You can see it all the way down here. Now bitcoin’s trading at around $16,000. Now the smartest people on Wall street, they’re telling you again, it’s all going to zero. Same thing again. Then this line, this dotted line, the 2024 having right here, you can see I can turn that on and off. So you can see it right there. Then we had the having bitcoin goes from 16,000 to 109,000. All right. During that period when everyone wanted out, when the two year return was deep in the red, that was the single best entry point in the last four years.

Right? You can see how well that return, the blue is the price up here. And now look where we are right now. So here we are right now. Another cycle of lows is forming. Right now the two year rolling return has just dipped negative for the fourth time in Bitcoin’s history. Now it’s not that long of history, but it’s pretty long. The fourth time it’s ever happened. You can see P1 bottom negative at 71. P2 right here, bottom negative at 65. P3 negative at 64. Now this time we’re only negative 6.3. Right. Why is it so shallow? Well, because the structure underneath bitcoin has fundamentally changed.

Now you’ve got ETFs that are providing constant demand. As a matter of fact, the ETF just launched this week. It’s like the best performing ETF in history. You’ve got public companies that are holding it in their balance sheets and they’re not selling. You’ve got sovereign wealth funds that are, you know, exploring allocations, holding. And so now the floor is higher because the buyer base is deeper and they’re not selling. Now the signal is the same, but the conviction underneath it is stronger than it’s ever been. Okay, now what we want to take a look at is when you’ve been able to buy in those areas, what type of returns have you made? Well, let me tell you, they have been historic.

So let’s take a look at the annual returns year by year. And if you look at these numbers, it’s pretty crazy. So we can see in 2013 it went up 5866%. After that you can see here, in 2017 it was up 1369%. Now 2021 was, was pretty small, right? It was only up 560%. I mean only 560%. But now if you go back to 2025, negative 6%. All right? The post having year, it broke the pattern. And I think most people look at this and say, you see, it’s over, the cycle’s broken. Bitcoin doesn’t work anymore.

But I look at it, I see something different. I see the opposite, right? The cycle didn’t break, it stretched. And that stretch is exactly what pushed the two year rolling return negative again. It’s setting up the same signal that preceded every major rule in Bitcoin’s history. The setup is literally the same. It’s a reset for the setup. Now one more thing. If we look at the at the price of bitcoin, we can look at the bitcoin price at the bottom of each negative return. And what we can see at the, at the bottom price, every single time.

In P1, we can see that bitcoin was in the hundreds. In P2, it was in the thousands. In P3, it was up in the 16 thousands. And one more thing, look at Bitcoin’s price at the bottom of each negative cycle. So here we have at period one, at the having one, it was all the way down to $12. Then having two went up to 640. Then having three, up to 8,700, having four, 64,000. So while it looks like a lot of volatility and it has been, you can see that the price over time continues to go higher and higher and higher every single time.

Now, right now, Bitcoin, if we go up here, this is the price, the blue right here, it’s around $72,000 ish today, the question you have to ask yourself is, does 72, 73,000 look like the top or does it look like 16,000 did back in 2022? And now what the smart money’s telling us, if the chart’s not enough, right, if the chart’s not enough for you, look what the big money, the smart money is actually doing right now in this exact window. So, strategy. Former Microstrategy is on pace to acquire 8,000, maybe up to 10,000 bitcoin just this week alone.

Not this year, just this week. Morgan Stanley, they just launched their MSBT Bitcoin ETF. It bought 650 Bitcoin in the first two days. That puts it in the top 1% of all, all ETF launches in history. Not crypto ETF launches. We’re talking about all ETF launches ever. We have the Ride Group, a publicly traded company in Singapore, just adopted a Bitcoin treasury strategy. It’s going global. And look, these aren’t retail traders, panic buying, a dip. These are institutions with risk committees, with, with compliance departments, with fiduciary obligations to their shareholders. But they see the same chart.

They see the same chart that you just saw, the one I just showed you. They see the same inflation pipeline I talked about, they understand the same mechanism, and they’re accumulating more bitcoin more aggressively than we’ve ever seen, ever seen in history. And remember the principal agent problem from earlier, the one I talked about? The Fed is the agent who will always choose to print. Bitcoin is the only asset on earth with a supply schedule that no agent, no government, no central bank, no emergency committee can change 21 million. That’s it. No door number two when it comes to bitcoin.

Okay, so let me bring this home. Let me bring this full circle, right? We started with the contractor. One guy, he’s losing money on a job, right? He already signed it. Material prices spiked up on him. The contract’s locked in, he’s underwater. And you don’t see that in the headline. Maybe you do, but it’s not just a headline. It’s someone’s life. But that contractor’s problem is also now the trucker’s problem. And the trucker’s problem is also the manufacturer’s problem. And the manufacturer’s problem is about to be the consumer’s problem. Maybe your problem. That’s the shockwave, right? That’s what we’re talking about.

Energy to trucking, to manufacturing, to construction, to housing, to everything we buy. And that shock wave creates a trap for the Fed. They can fight inflation and they can crush the economy, or they can protect the economy and they can let inflation run. Now, every single time in history, they’ve chosen door number two. They’ve chosen to let inflation run hot. Which means, yeah, more money creation. It means more debasement, more dollars chasing the same goods. And again, that’s terrible. It’s terrible news. If you’re holding assets that need earnings to grow, like stocks. Because those earnings, they’re being destroyed by the very inflation the Fed’s trying to manage.

That’s stocks, that’s equities. That’s where the damage is done first, right? The rescue’s coming, it’s going to come later. But the rescue doesn’t fix what’s already broken. But if you’re holding an asset with no income, no income statement, no supply chain, no margins to compress, no employees to lay off, no supply chains, none of that, well then no central bank on earth can change that. No monetary expansion can dilute that. Right? What it does is it fuels it. So the two year rolling return has gone negative for the fourth time in Bitcoin’s history. The first three times were generational accumulation zones.

Every single one, the biggest institutions on the planet, they’re loading up right now. Now the shockwave, that’s what’s causing all the damage. But it’s also the same shockwave that’s forcing the monetary response that bitcoin was built for. The shockwave is the cause, the debasement is the effect. But bitcoin is the exit. Now, the only question is now that you see it or, you know, if you see it, does 73,000 look like it was in 16,000? Now, quick, if you got value from this, please hit that subscribe button down below. Hit that, like button. Maybe share it with somebody who’s a little bit skeptical of the price and you want to kind of show this to them.

Go ahead and share it with them. Let me know what you think in a comment down below. As I always say, to your success, I’m out.
[tr:tra].

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