Is This the End of Homebuilding?

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Summary

➡ Dan from IAllegedly reports that there’s a surplus of houses for sale, with 108,000 completed homes and 258,000 more under construction. He suggests that the real estate market won’t recover quickly due to high interest rates and economic changes. He also mentions that people are in more debt than ever, which could lead to financial problems if circumstances change. Lastly, he discusses potential mergers between banks and cryptocurrency sellers, and the bankruptcy of auto finance company Vroom.

Transcript

Hi, this is IAllegedly. I’m Dan. Welcome back. I’ve got a good one for you today because there are too many houses for sale right now. I can’t even believe I’m saying that. But when you see these stats, they’re going to be blown away. A lot to cover. Banking issues. Issues with the economy. CNN thinks you’re making too much money. And don’t forget to hit the subscribe button and the like button. Let’s get into it. Think about this. Right now, home builders that build more than just a few houses a year have 108,000 homes that are completed that are for sale right now.

You can go get one. Go get it. Well, that doesn’t seem like that many down when you spread it around the country. No, it’s up 48% from a year ago. So, another figure that’s up 48%, same figure, is that there are 258,000 additional houses that are in construction right now in some form from the slab to framing to drywall to roughing to electrical to completion that are not ready yet. 258,000 more houses. So when construction right now, who’s going to buy these houses right now? Nobody. Nobody’s going to buy these houses.

I told you guys a story about how I looked at a house. And one thing I did that was fascinating was I contacted the insurance company. No, not going to write it for that house. You’re going to see this happen more and more with what happened in the last video with Progressive, how they shut off builders that blew people away and people that are multi-family units, landlords, that blew them away. The one thing, the other thing that I do things every now and then that I don’t make that big of a deal about and people freak out.

And the last one was there is a website that was issued that shows you who owns every property in California. I had multiple friends that own property and they’re like, let me see this thing. They’re blown away because it’s got their name and different things on it. You’d be a fool to have this, but it’s free. So I’ll make sure I put that one below again so you can see it again. And again, for those of you that are too lazy to look at the comments and the video, because I’m telling you, if you guys, I should do a video on rude comments.

People write me, Hey, stupid, share the link that you forgot, things like that. When it’s, they don’t even know how to open the video comments. So those are great people. They get blocked too. So it’s fun. Anyways, the problem with this is that you’re not going to see things happen to the real estate market that’s going to make it turn around overnight. Okay. Interest rates are not going to drop miraculously to 3% in the next six months. It’s not going to happen. It’s just not going to happen. The other thing is that, you know, with the new administration, you’re going to see major changes.

Absolutely. And we’ll let any restrictions be loosened a little bit probably, but you’re going to pay a much higher interest rate right now for these houses. And nobody wants to sit there and accept that fact that you’re stuck with a 7% mortgage right now. Now I get people, every time I say that figure, they write me and say, you know, my first mortgage was 13%. You didn’t buy an $800,000 house pal. You bought a $34,000 house. It was like buying a car back then. And that’s what you’re paying, you know, your 13 and 14% interest rates for.

So crazy guys, but you’re going to see this completely implode in the coming months. Robert Kiyosaki did, you know, an article. This is the end of banking. The banking collapses here. This guy’s called it more than I have guys. He really has. So love you Robert. But you know, it, there’s going to be a problem. And what’s going to happen is when it finally starts, people are going to say, see, I told you there was a problem. So CNN did an article about how people have more debt than ever before. But that’s a good thing.

It’s good to have debt. When all I do is preach, pay your bills off. Dave Ramsey you know, don’t buy, you know, a $200,000 car. Don’t do that. Okay. Point is, is that you go out and you buy these things and you finance yourself to the hills. What happens if business fails? What happens if things change? It’s never going to change. It’s going to get better. Daddy’s coming home. Okay. Okay. Maybe, but you have to clear up your finances right now. And you know, I went to a restaurant this morning for breakfast and saw a bunch of people and half of them were cautiously optimistic.

The other half are like, you know, wait a second. Let’s wait and see. Oh, look at all the birds. Isn’t that cool? Pigeons whipping around. Look at this. I am at the Balboa Pier right now, which is a nice place to walk out. This pier is two miles away from the Newport Beach Pier. It’s where I do my runs on Sunday. You can go from one pier to the next. It’s two miles. Add them up together. Two and two is four. But CNN, you know, hey listen, it’s okay that you have more debt right now because you make more money.

And incomes have slowly gone up during the last four years. Now I want you to tell anybody who’s lost their job during this time, why you’re making more money. You can afford that house payment. You can afford that $200,000 car. You make more money. All I do is have people talk to me about how bad inflation is and how tight things are as far as money. So going to see more and more of that. More and more of that. So there’s too many homes for sale right now. And the builders know that they’re stuck with them right now.

And they don’t know what incentives they’re going to go to offer people to get them through this. The sun is blazing in my face right now, by the way. Now, you know, a couple of things. Ned Lamont is the governor of Connecticut. And Ned is convinced that he’s not going to do a mandate for EV cars. You want to drive an EV car, that’s fine. But he’s not going to force a mandate in his state because he sees it’s way off. So will this upset guys like Elon Musk? No, it’s freedom of choice is what he’s trying to say.

And what we’re going to do is stick with the regular government numbers. And whatever the mandatory minimum is for mileage, that’s what we’re going to stick to. That’s what we’re going to insist on people having in our state. That seems like a business decision to make. And not a, you have to drive this car. So many people have written me that either love, love, love, love their EV car, or they are sick of their EV cars. When I was a kid, this pier has got this railing on it. This pier had no railing on it when I was a kid.

And, you know, it had a curve around the perimeter of it. And my grandmother, don’t fall in, okay. But it would scare the heck out of us and we wouldn’t fall in. I never saw anybody fall in. But I used to just think, how incredibly unsafe? And, you know, don’t run with scissors. Don’t go to the edge of the pier. And that’s that. So we didn’t. And we still joke about this. So, you know, a few other things to cover in this video. You know, it’s exciting. It really is. There’s a lot going on.

You know, you’re going to see banks that are certain unregulated banks merge with regulated banks. And you’re going to see banks merge with cryptocurrency sellers. Now, Trump wants to be the cryptocurrency president, which if you’re into that, it’s great. You’ve seen an absolute bull run since the election where cryptocurrencies have gone above, you know, let’s start with Bitcoin, $91,000. Some of the altcoins have just went through the roof as well. So it’s going to be interesting to see how that plays out. Auto finance company Vroom, you know, an auto seller. This kid’s got squid on his bait.

And so the auto finance company Vroom, they filed a prepackaged bankruptcy. They’re done. They’re done. The auto industry as a whole is done right now. My friend Dave keeps sending me auto stories. I could make it this the auto story hour with you, but I mean, Nissan keeps adding people to their list of layoffs right now. So it’s getting bigger and bigger and bigger right now, which is should concern all of us. The auto industry is the bedrock. Home building’s the bedrock. You have to have industries. You have to have business.

That is good. Now, one thing that was sent to me, and I don’t have the full story yet, was there was a man who owns, you know, he owns manufacturing facilities in Australia, and he’s going to relocate to the United States to have manufacturing here because he wants to come back. So that’s great. You know, let’s see more of that. You know, can’t find that story yet. It will. And I’ll make sure my friends don’t tell me stuff like this. If you don’t have a story, I can’t share with my friends on the channel.

So there’s that, you know, you’re going to see everything come full circle right now. It really is. It really is. And you’re going to see banks that are going to have problems that just not going to be able to avoid it. And I know from as far as the, you know, as far as the auto industry, man, is it in trouble, you know, you’re just going to see tons of it. So let me know what you think so far. You guys are probably wondering why I called you here today. I’m always blown away with what people invest in.

And there was an art forger who was recently caught back East with 2,100 major forgeries that if they were the real things would be worth, you know, hundreds of millions of dollars. So they spared people from buying these and sharing them everything because it’s crazy. I mean, you want to get yourself into a great investment. They say art is a great investment. Or is it? I think it’s horrible. I mean, who knows about art unless you’re in that business. That’s the thing that I always, you know, want to remind people of.

A great article about how retailers right now as we enter the shopping season are shooting themselves in the foot by making it more difficult for people to have a good shopping experience. I’m telling you, I when I go out in my shop, nothing’s better than help. Nothing’s better than getting your questions answered and also being left alone. Oh, if you need anything, let us know. That’s the greatest thing ever. What’s happening is that retailers are making them more difficult, putting things behind glass, making it making you feel like you’re a criminal and having somebody follow you through the store, different things like that that make you not want to shop with a retailer right now.

In fact, stay away from them. So you’re seeing more and more of that right now. This is crazy. The Molson Coors Company, it’s been around forever. Remember smoking the bandit and he gets Coors over, you know, bring it out west and it’s bootleg in because they raced and they had to do it in so much time and all that stuff. Well, Molson Coors has a brewery plant that is shutting down in the Midwest, one of their first ones. And 56 people are going to lose their jobs right now because nobody’s buying beer at the pace that they used to.

Man, oh man, tell me a business that’s doing good right now. Tell me something right now. You go, oh, they’re flourishing right now. You know, AMD, that company that was right behind Nvidia in stock, fairly enough, you know, another 4% of their staff or, you know, almost a thousand people. It’s crazy, guys. Layoff after layoff after layoff and you’re not supposed to be affected by this, but man, it just gets to you that you sit there and you say, oh, this is kind of a problem right now with the economy. I just think it is right now.

And, you know, everybody thinks that this is going to be a light switch economy where you’re going to flip a switch and oh my gosh, this is so much better. It’s not going to work that way. My friends that are in manufacturing, my friends that are in tech, my friends that are in regular construction, just a lull right now. And the biggest challenge, getting paid. I am telling you this right now. If you were a consultant, you have a light shop. It’s just you and not a lot of people. Do not let people get into you for money right now.

I’ve been telling you this one for two years. Icebergs flipping around. And they’re scattering around. But you’re just going to see real problems with that moving forward. It’s kind of blown away by this one. You know, it’s like 44 cents a share. Elon Musk made a comment because Warren Buffett last year, not this year, last year, made $700 million in dividend income. Isn’t that crazy? $700 million in Coca-Cola stock. Now, he owns 700 million shares. But to make that in a year, again, what are you doing? What do you need to work for if you’re making that kind of money? So that’s the one thing.

Would you guys be interested in the top 12 dividend stocks? Greg Manarino talks about dividends that get paid every month. Would you guys like a list like that? Would that interest you guys? Just write dividend down below and let me know that that’s something that would interest you. And we’ll bring Bobby back. I think he’s back from his vacation right now. So we’ll get him on the channel as well. I’m going to finish this video with these last few stories. I love walking down here. If you go that way, the tail of the whale, you got the pier and the fun zone and there’s the pier.

Marilyn wrote me something that’s kind of heart wrenching. And that is, she said, you know, Dan, it’s very difficult because when you’re over 60, employers are just messing with you. They’re cutting your hours back and everybody’s 60 plus is getting cut back to 20 hours a week instead of the 40. So you said, I have to give up my car cannot afford the gas expenses with the car. So, you know, clearly going to eat. So she’s got to give the car. That’s terrible. But again, CNN is telling Marilyn that she’s making more money than ever.

Marilyn’s doing great. No, Marilyn’s not doing great. Marilyn’s just scraping by, but doing the common sense thing of getting rid of her vehicle because she can’t handle it right now. GM is recalling 461,000 vehicles because of a transmission problem. And it’s the Yukon. It’s the, you know, all these rides, the Escalade, Chevrolet Tahoe, and the Sierra and the Silverado because the transmission could lock and it could make it so that the back tires could freeze up and have you get into an accident when somebody, you know, rams into you. So again, terrible, absolutely terrible.

And final, final story is, and this, I’ve dealt with this lately. So Jamie Holcomb and her husband live in Florida and they’ve been paying on their homeless insurance just outside of Tampa Bay for, you know, 12 years now. Hurricane comes in, destroys the house. Your gesture comes out and says, hey, listen, you’ve got a three and a half inch step there that leads when you walk in the entryway, steps down, that’s considered a basement. We don’t cover basements with our insurance company. So as funny as that seems and as ridiculous as that is, the insurance companies are going out of their way and not to pay you right now.

So these people had to file an appeal and thank God, somebody in their family said, you know, when you walk up to your house, there’s a four and a half inch step when you walk in. So four and a half minus three inches, it’s not a basement. Is that ridiculous? Do not let these thieves do this to you because they will try. They’re trying all the time. Their goal is to not pay you. Their goal is to stiff you and make an example out of you. And look what we did to the Holcomb.

We screwed them. Read the story. But I’m not making this up and not exaggerating this. This is insanity. But this is what you’re experiencing in life right now when it comes to these insurance companies. Because with progressive leaving, with everybody not wanting to pay people, that’s what you’re seeing. You’re seeing more and more of this. And we’re the victims of this right now. So please hit the like button. Please subscribe to the channel. Email me hello at iallegedly.com. And onward and upward, guys. It’s a new day. Okay? I’ll see you soon. [tr:trw].

See more of I Allegedly on their Public Channel and the MPN I Allegedly channel.

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