Hello, everyone, economic ninja here. We’re going to talk about the Federal reserve and if they are about to actually raise rates after a pretty long pause when the markets and the world have been, I wouldn’t say expecting, wanting them to lower rates. All right, why are they wanting to lower rates? Because the pain is too much. It is slowed economic activity. Problem is not slowed. It. Enough. Stated this many times before, in order to quell inflation, you must have lending rates at or above the level of actual inflation.

The problem is the government is doing a great job of deceiving the public of what inflation really is. And what blows me away is how many people actually believe the government. Let me give you an example. The government will say that inflation is x, right? When we all go to the grocery store and know that inflation and food, the most important thing to us and energy is y.

But the difference between x and Y is very interesting because the government takes certain aspects of our daily lives, of our desire to grow financially and our economy to grow, right? They take it out. So they take away your cost of fuel going up. Like you don’t really need to see that. They’ll sit there and they’ll go, oh, we’ll minus shelter. It’s called inflation X shelter. We’ll take the cost of shelter, the cost of rent, the cost of buying a home.

We’ll take that out. And these are the inflation numbers. Like, no, wait a minute, hold on. Everybody needs to eat. Everybody needs to drive their car around to and from work, back and forth from home to work. Everyone needs to live in a house, right? So we should have all those numbers. They don’t want to tell you that. They don’t want to tell you because what they’ve done is they’ve mismanaged the money system, the money supply.

That is something that people need to understand. All right, so now we are at a precipice because the Fed has went through this pause and now the fed can go either direction, either go higher or go lower. There’s a story I want to share with you out of Yahoo finance and we’re going to talk about it after I read a little bit of it. It’s entitled markets start to speculate if the next Fed move is up, not down.

It says investors are beginning to war game. How the Federal Reserve can manage the US economy that just won’t land, with some even debating whether interest rate hikes will be needed only weeks after a steady run of reductions appeared all but certain. Let me explain. The economy is not strong. How do I know this for certain. All right? And type one, if you agree the economy is not strong based off of what I’m saying.

When you see credit card debt nationwide go up, goes higher, that means that people are spending more money than they make. All right? That means the economy is not healthy. However, companies keep coming out reports saying, hey, we’ve sold a bunch of tvs, we’ve sold furniture, we’ve sold homes, we’ve sold this, we’ve sold that, right? We’re seeing the cost of borrowing going up, but not enough. People are expanding themselves, extending themselves too far.

We are a debtor nation. So these companies are saying, hey, we sold stuff. They don’t want to tell you that they sold stuff to people using credit cards. Okay? We’re seeing delinquencies rise. They’re rising now, albeit they’re not rising at rates compared to, like, let’s say the crash. But we’re in that cycle, expansion, and it’s blowing off right now. This is the point where we’re starting to see delinquencies rise.

And then to the downside, everything comes falling down. The Federal Reserve understands this, but most human beings do not know how this works. Auto loans, auto loan debt is still rising. All right, now we’ve seen MSRP coming off of cars, right? I just saw a Toyota dealership where they know, pretty much like in lipstick on the windshield of a, I want to say it was a Toyota Camry, maybe a Corolla, and it said $7,000 off MSRP in big letters.

They want you to know numbers. They want you to know that they’re no longer trying to screw you. Now they’re getting screwed because quite frankly, they were, they’re like taking advantage of people. It was like the toilet paper crisis and the gas station down the street from me, and I’ll never, ever shop there again. They were charging $20 for a pack of four rolls. And they said, supply and demand, man.

Like, cool. Guess what? Your demand just went down because I will never shop at your store again. Totally rape people during a crisis. That was just crap. I could see a buck. A buck. Absolutely insane to me. But the thing is, the public keeps taking it. Well. Now economists are going, oh, crap. So credit expansion is happening. We’ve seen the national debt balloon, right? And people are still getting salted forgiveness on student loans and things like that.

What are they now doing with their money that they didn’t have to pay in student loans? As a matter of fact, we just saw when student loans came due, they started back up. What in September, the first couple of months, it was like 40% of the people said, we’re not paying that. We can’t pay this. Well, that money that they make is still going somewhere. So they’re buying something with it because we know the national savings rate isn’t going up.

As a matter of fact, it’s going down. So if they’re choosing not to pay a bill somewhere, they’re going to send it somewhere else. And so this is that point during a crash where caddy wampus economists are coming out and saying, hey, things look great. We’re going to be soft turn because these companies are reporting good earnings. You’re like, yeah, but debt rising over here. We don’t really want to show you the whole picture.

We just want to push a narrative. That’s what’s happening. Let me ask you this. Are you right now, I just want to do a quick poll. Type two, if you are trying to get out of debt right now. Type three, if you’re not really focused on that, you’re trying to live like you’re moving forward. Like everything shut down, the whole world shut down. And it was pretty stressful and depressing.

I get all that and it’s like, you know what, I just want to live. I’m just curious how many people. So two, you’re getting ready, you’re trying to pay off debt. You want sort of a bigger. And then three if you’re just like, look, I just want to live my life. I’m just curious how many. And we’ve got both right now. All right, so check this out. It says here, bets.

Now, again, it does really matter if the rates why? And the Fed knows this and nobody else really gets this. I don’t understand why. I’m talking about economists. If they lower rates, it is going to cause the bubble of all bubbles and it will cause price asset prices to rise in everything. Gold, silver, stocks, homes, cars, everything will go insane. The Federal Reserve knows this. That’s why I’ve been saying the only reason you’d get a couple of small, tiny lowers is right before the election, and it’s a trap.

And the Federal Reserve knows it. And they’re going to say things like, we know what we think the economy is doing. Well, they won’t say it directly, but everyone else, the mainstream media, will put it and go, hey, bidenomics worked. Bidenomics, look at this. Who you should vote for, this is who you should vote for. And they’re going to smear it all over the place. But what it will create, and it will take between 90 and 120 days to show up is rapid speculation in all kinds of markets, and it’ll cause inflation to explode higher.

And then what will happen after that is that you will see a moonshot in interest rates and the bond market. It’ll be insane. You’ll see easy double digit mortgages. I’ve been calling that for a while. This has got to play out. The only way the Fed lowers rates is a political move because they’re scared pissless of who the alternative is. You guys all know what I’m talking about.

Because in 2018, most people don’t realize that a president came out railing against the Fed saying they are trying to crash the markets because they were raising rates and see what he knew. And what I know is the Fed actually knows this. Hey, every time we raise the rates, if we raise it and squeeze everybody and everyone stops borrowing money, the market collapses, and then we pick up all the crap really cheap.

That’s actually how it works. Type four, if you understand that. I just want to see some people, like, honestly, don’t just type four, just a heck of it. But if you understand that, you get that, like when the Fed ratchets it up rates, they could fully stop the economy and get it to go backwards. That’s why this is such a big deal. The only way, and I do believe they’re going to do it, they’re going to drop rates just a couple, like 25 basis points, maybe three times.

And they’re going tout how the strength of the market. And they’re not going to say it directly. They’re going to tell you, hey, the current guy running the place, the human roomba, it’s because of that genius. And we’re in idiocracy. We’re living in Clowntown right now, right? Type five, if you agree with. So my point being is that when they do this, it’s going to be only for political moves because they want everybody to vote a certain way.

Go, crap, we’re screwed. We know that if we lower rates or if we just keep them steady right now, things are going to keep growing. Toll brothers will figure out a way to push another sale. All these companies will figure some way. They’ll extend debt out. They’ll do all these crazy things just to get people to speculate, and it’ll keep those prices strong or getting a little stronger.

Crap, we got to raise rates. But the problem is, if they raise rates, you’re going to see that all time high on the dow. Get ready for that puking. And so that’s where we’re at right now. It says here that bets on lower rates coming soon were so prevalent a few weeks ago that the Fed chair Jerome Powell publicly cautioned that policymakers were unlikely to be in a position to cut as of march.

Less than three weeks later, traders have not only removed March as a possibility, but may also looks improbable. And even conviction about the June Fed meeting is wavering swaps. Trading shows the latest hot debate. Perhaps the next shift isn’t a cut at all. Former U. S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers on Friday voiced what a number of market participants had already been thinking. There’s a meaningful chance the next move is up.

What do you think? I’m just curious. Do you think the Fed is going to type up? If you think they’re going to raise rates, type down if you think they’re going to lower rates next, the next move. I don’t care about the next month. Keeping it steady. What do you think the likeliness is? He goes on to say, this is from summers. There are so many possible plausible outcomes.

Oh, sorry. This is Earl Davis, head of fixed income and money markets at BMO Global Asset Management. He says while he’s sticking with the 75 basis points of cuts for 2024. That’s that political move that I warned everyone about last November, a month prior to the Fed talking about penciling in three rate cuts. I warned everybody about that. It’s not like some warning, like it’s going to change our lives.

It’s one of those things that you have to see as a signpost and see what they’re doing politically. How are they motivated? Right. This is a really interesting point. And the Fed knows. They know. And this is what I’ve been screaming for. The hilltops, when they make a move, the disastrous outcomes or the positive outcomes, either one to the up or the down, right? It takes at least three months to show up.

Really. It really takes two quarters to really solidify that move and what it’s done to the economy. Because for the first month or two, people are going, all right, they lowered rates. Is this really happening? Is this going to stick? The consumers going? We’re diving in. See, the consumer is not hurt enough right now. The million dollar homes that I’m looking at, right. Not to go out and buy a million dollar homes, that’d be nuts right now because the higher end real estate falls on a percentage basis greater than the lower priced.

Right. Because there’s less people that can go out and buy a million dollar plus homes. All right. But let me tell you this. I’m watching them because that’s the first line, that’s the first wave of homes that take the big price drops. Where I am right now, we are seeing, just because the ten year bond dropped down a little bit over the last couple of months, we’re seeing a panic and people are buying them up really quick.

The $1 million homes and they’re financing them. These are paper millionaires. Sorry, I was a paper millionaire when I was 24, 26 years old. I remember how old I was, mid twenty s. And it could be taken away like that. So I know what that’s like. I’m no longer in that position. It took a long time to get there. But I will tell you that there’s a big difference between a millionaire that’s a million dollars on paper because of leverage and how fast that can change, and someone that’s got a million bucks in the bank, million dollars in precious mills or million dollars in crypto or million dollars in cars, whatever.

What I’m saying is they have actual assets. They’re like at a moment things are going bad. I can liquidate. I can liquidate. I got choices. But people that are paper millionaires, everything starts going down, they panic. Big difference. Okay, and millionaires, just an arbitrary number. I know it sounds crazy. There’s a lot of people that aren’t and they’re going, well, I want to be there. I’m like, this is why I try and explain this kind of mental thought process.

Because your wealth is all mental. You could start speaking it out loud. And I used to do this all the time and I still do it. As a matter of fact. Let me just share with you a quick story. And this is something that will be amazing and type, I believe if you agree with this or that, you’re going to start doing it. A lot of people call it manifesting.

I call it the power of our tongue. Our tongue is so strong, the way we speak about ourselves and our situation. And I fight this every day. I told you the other night, like, I go to bed saying out loud, you’re an idiot. You’re an idiot. What are you doing? And I have to stop myself. Like, what are you saying? And stop this. Well, one of my gifts is that people answer the phone for me.

One of my business partners, he used to just laugh. He was just beside himself. I wonder if Charlie’s watching this. Charlie, if you are, say hi. And when we were buying and selling trailers, he’d call about a trailer and rang nothing. Message. I’ve left like three messages. And I’m like, don’t worry, they’ll answer for me. First time, I was just messing around, hey, how’s it going? I’m calling about your trailer.

And he’s like, he just left a message. Well, then it became a joke because I just kept saying, emblem, they’re going to answer for me. They’ll answer for me. Everyone answers for me, right? I sort of knew what I was doing. I sort of didn’t. The other day, yesterday, I’m out looking at homes and I’m talking with people because I’m trying to get all this boots on the ground information for my students.

And one of the agents I’m working with, she’s like, I’ve called the agent, I’ve left a message, I’ve texted, I don’t know what to do. And I’m like, don’t worry, she’ll answer for me. And my wife goes, it’s his thing, just watch. It’s his thing. And bam. I’m like, oh, hey, how are you doing? And agents like, what? Well, you need to start speaking over yourself. I didn’t mean for the video to go this way.

I’m sorry, but I think there’s people that need to hear about this. Oh, here, someone’s asking me a question. I never answer questions. I’m sorry. Someone’s asking me if I’m positioned in all, at all in the crypto. Am I own. I’m just going to say this. None of this is financial advice. I own bitcoin. I have XRP, I have Solana. I’ve got a lot of cryptos because I’ve been into cryptos for so long, I haven’t really sold my positions actually on dips.

I just buy more. That’s not financial advice. But yes, I’m invested in there. I vault precious metals, physical precious metals. Just, you know, that’s a personal thing for me. I believe if you don’t hold it, you don’t own it. But also, just so you guys know, I’ve never seen vaults just get knocked off. Rich people are rich for a reason. And brinks is in the business of keeping your value so that they could build as a company, not stealing from you.

So a lot of people don’t agree with that. That’s okay. But I do own real estate. But yeah, I’m actually diversified in just about every single market. I’m out of oil right now, physical oil wells, but yeah, I’m into all that stuff because one pops off and makes profit, I pull the profits and I put it into something else that I truly believe in. And then when it’s down, and so I have like five or six bags of investment asset classes that I truly believe in.

And yes, they do own stocks too, but I own them a little differently. I invest off market and just different kind of investing when it comes to that stuff. Some companies that aren’t public, I invest in, and then they go public. And then some I do private placements, things like that. But here’s the thing. Why is this all important? Let’s tie this all together. The fed raising rates or lowering rates, you have to see what’s driving them.

Are they politically motivated or actual physical? Like, we got to hold the economy together, because if we lose it and enough people on YouTube tell the truth, that the Federal Reserve is a private bank. They’re not federal, and they don’t have any reserves. And they’re just money printers. They’re magicians. And that’s why the book the wizard of Oz was actually written was about central banks. Please understand that.

That’s why the horse of a different color runs around. Because just money changes colors every time it fails and the new one comes out, or as they’re failing, they get more colorful and the Emerald City is green. Please understand. This is what that book was about. And the little man pulling the strings, just making more money. That’s what all this was about. And that’s why Judy’s slippers were silver in the mean in the book, but they weren’t allowed to be silver in.

Oh, let me tell you something that just happened, actually. When Metro Meyer, I don’t remember the name of the company, Oscar Meyer did the movie. They wanted it, ruby red slippers, because they didn’t want it to be so close to what was going on with. Hold on just 1 second. Let’s do something. Hold on. Sorry. All right. It’s awkward. All right. There’s a new movie coming out based on.

It’s an evil movie, but based on the wizard of Oz. I will not be watching it. I don’t remember what it’s called. Wicked or something like that. And there’s a lot of demonic stuff in it. I will not be watching it. But Judy’s are the characters. Slippers are silver in that one. Go figure. And that’s why, sorry, I’m thinking of like 20 different things. I should probably just end this.

I’ll tell you what, it’s been a rough few months for me after I left the fire department. This is the hardest time of my life, honestly. It’s definitely defining who I am. And I’m renting. I’m in a ton of positions that I’ve never been in in the last, like, 25 years. And we’re at the top of a blow off top as the economy is starting to turn down and people are figuring this out, and it sucks waiting, and I’m doing everything I can to keep my mind busy, and it’s tough.

I know this is live, and this is like the point in the live stream where there’s the most bound people, right? But all of my videos, I try and get a little real towards the end because the people that watch it, once it goes to a video, if you watch it all the way through, the real gems come out. Well, I guess the gem of this video is that no matter where any of us are financially, some of us have just gotten out of credit card debt.

Some of us just paid off our first car, and we now own a car. That’s the most amazing feeling ever. I know what that’s like. Then some of us may have just bought our first home. We’ve hit all these different goals, or maybe we just became a millionaire, right? You may have just hit 10 million. We’re all at different phases. There’s hard times in every phase, and I’m at one right now, and I expect that four or five years from now, I’ll be in another one.

You know what I mean? And the only thing that is going to define who you are, who I am is how we deal with those hard times, and they are what make us stronger or weaker for the future. Difficult times. You got to ask yourself, are you going to quit, or are you going to be a conqueror? I’m going to be a winner. I have to choose that every day, no matter what the Federal reserve does.

If they’ve raised rates to lower rates and either kick the can down the road, or they say, this is the time. I want to be ready. I want you to be ready. But getting ready is tough. It’s hard when nobody around you sees it. You see it. You’ve got that gut feeling, and you’re moving towards that gut feeling, and you’re the only one. Trust me. It’s hard. Just know that.

The coolest thing, though, that I think that is happening is for the first time in our nation’s history, right before an epic downturn, there are hundreds of thousands of people around the nation getting ready for it. They’re uniting, and I am so proud to be just a small, little cog in that machine. And I hope that you are, too. I hope that this gets you excited and fired up.

Every time I meet you, I meet amazing human beings. That’s it. We are the coolest group at school and nobody knows it. But we do type eleven, if you agree with that. And why did I pick eleven? Because eleven is louder than ten. And that’s the engine nation. Hey, if you guys want the citizens, of course it’s discounted below price goes up on Saturday, so I think we got, like, two days left.

I hope you guys have a great day. Go start businesses. Go crush it. I want you making lots of money. But first and foremost, and I am guilty of this myself, I want you to be happy while you’re making money, okay? I want you to be excited. Don’t let the stress get to you. All right. Thank you for typing. 1111 is louder. I hope you guys have a great day.

The economic ninja is out. Bye. .

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