The Syrian civil war reignited over the weekend with rebel forces capturing the major city of Aleppo, threatening to bring the Bashar al-Assad regime to the brink. After four years of relative peace, dormant front lines have been jolted back into conflict. But why? What precisely is happening in Syria and how does it relate to the wider conflicts in the Middle East and abroad? I’m learning exactly what’s happening, who are the major players, and what they expect to gain from reigniting this conflict. So make sure to like, comment, and subscribe, and let’s dive right in.

Over the weekend, rebel groups seized control of the Syrian city of Aleppo, one of the largest cities in the country. The three-day blitzkrieg offensive was launched by a new Islamist militant group called HTS, which was formed by groups with ties to both ISIS and al-Qaeda. HTS is made up of about 30,000 fighters from different Islamic military groups and factions who had banded together in their attempt to take over Syria and dethrone President Bashar al-Assad. It appears to have been a surprise attack and in effect broke the stalemate that for the last four years had effectively stopped the fighting in a decade-long civil war that’s claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of Syrians.

Now, we can think of HTS as the tip of the spear, as it were, of the organized rebel faction known as SSG. That stands for the Syrian Salvation Government. They are the principal opposition force against President Bashar al-Assad and they occupy, they control the region of northwestern Syria centered around the city of Idlib. Now, as you can see on the map, Idlib borders on Turkey. That’s key because Turkey, under their president Erdogan, is a major supporter of the opposition forces, particularly of HTS and the SSG. They’ve been trained by Turkish intelligence, they’ve been sheltered by Turkey.

Turkey wants to increase its influence and its power in the region and it sees a broken up Syria, a vulcanized Syria, as key to that power grab. We have to remember that Syria, the independent republic of Syria, is actually a relatively young nation. It was found in 1946, just a couple of years before Israel was established, having been the territory of France after World War I. So, Syria is a rather fragile nation state, it’s very young, it’s very diverse in terms of the ethnic makeup of its regions, and as we’ve seen, it’s not in the least naturally or organically united.

Turkey is exploiting that disunity by supporting the rebel forces in the north. Now, over and against this is Russia. Russia, along with Iran, is very, very pro-Assad, and Russian and Iranian forces have been instrumental in helping Assad maintain governance over, well, anywhere between 60 to 80 percent of Syria in the midst of this decade-long civil war. However, the involvement of Russian and Iranian forces in the Syrian civil war is provoking yet another power in the region to get involved, and that is where things start to get very interesting indeed. If the last four years have taught us anything, we always have to be ready for threats to our freedoms, and what makes it even worse is that those who threaten our freedoms are the very ones who sworn to defend those freedoms.

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So Iran, as far as Israel is concerned, has been exploiting its role in maintaining stability in Syria by using their increased proximity to Lebanon as an opportunity to beef up Hezbollah’s military. And so Israeli forces are concerned over the formation of what they’re calling a Shiite crescent form from Iranian occupied areas in Iraq to those in Syria down all the way to Lebanon. And that appears to be the key to this latest offensive and why the four-year-long stalemate was suddenly disrupted. The two key allies of the Assad government, Russia and Iran, and by extension Hezbollah, have all have been, they’ve all been, shall we say, radically distracted from the situation in Syria? Hezbollah in Lebanon has been pummeled by Israel of late.

Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah for more than three decades, was of course recently assassinated by Israeli forces and that happened against the backdrop of the exploding pagers which took everyone by surprise as well as a number of very successful missile strikes, surgical missile strikes. Iran too has been licking its wounds with its conflict with Israel. It certainly hasn’t been able to help with the pummeling of Hamas and Hezbollah. A string of their top commanders have gotten assassinated and that Israeli strike on their consulate in Damascus. And on top of all that, Russia of course is focused on Ukraine, especially in light of the major escalation in the conflict with the lame duck, President Joe Biden, having recently authorized Ukrainian forces to use attack missiles inside Russia.

These are US-made long-range missiles. They can travel upwards of nearly 200 miles. Ukraine has had them for some time now but Washington officials have not permitted Ukrainian forces to use them but that ban on their use has now been officially lifted which means we are now seeing US-made long-range missiles launched into the very heart of Russia. And you’ve got to wonder, looking back now from this weekend, you got to wonder if that green light was all part of this because let’s not forget the other major player in this situation in Syria which is of course the United States.

Back in 2011, the Obama-led State Department made regime change in Syria, the official policy of the United States, as part of the series of color revolutions that were sweeping the region at the time. And so all of a sudden now the whole conflict comes into focus. The United States, Israel, and Turkey, a sort of quasi-NATO force, has seized on the unique opportunity they have given Russia’s and Iran’s distractions to try to give another go at getting rid of Assad. Israel wants Assad gone especially given his alliance with Iran. Turkey wants Assad gone given how he stands in the way of their influence in the region and of course the United States wants Assad gone given his alliance with Russia.

And so I think in many respects we saw the convergence of a number of complex dynamics in the region come together to launch what was indeed a very successful offensive at capturing the second largest city in Syria. Will it work? I don’t think so. Most analysts don’t think so. Russian and Iranian forces appear to be already stabilizing the region with a number of very severe airstrikes against HTS forces and targets. I think Putin has made it absolutely clear Assad is staying in power. There’s no way around that. Assad is staying in power.

How Putin and Turkey’s Erdogan are going to work this out is anyone’s guess. Erdogan being a member of NATO but also in a very hostile relationship with Europe, Erdogan seems to be just a master of playing the west and the east against each other. He definitely seems to be playing the role of the double agent as it were, consistently trying to milk his advantage with both sides. And of course Israel is exploiting its sacred relationship with the United States in trying to topple anti-Israeli governments and the reason particularly those aligned with with Iran which given the alliance with Russia, Syria’s alliance with Russia, the United States is more than willing to help with in order to try to desperately find at least some leverage for Ukraine.

So all of this is to say that this very fragile nation of Syria has found itself at the center of a very complex and a very real geopolitical struggle. The civil war in Syria is itself part of a much larger international conflict that shows no signs of ending anytime soon. [tr:trw].

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