➡ Today is election day in three major states, with a focus on New Jersey, which might switch from a Democrat to a Republican majority. Despite media criticism, the economy is doing well with increased consumer spending, low inflation, and a booming stock market. There’s a free stock market training event coming up for those interested in building wealth. The New Jersey election is particularly interesting as it was a strong Democrat state, but now there’s a chance it might turn Republican, indicating a significant political shift.
➡ Democrats have cast more early votes, but Republicans have seen a larger increase in early voting compared to previous years. While Democrats have used up more of their regular voters in early voting, Republicans have managed to get their less regular voters to vote early. This could lead to a large turnout of regular Republican voters on Election Day. The race is close and the outcome could change the political landscape of New Jersey.

It’s here! Today’s election day in three major blue states with one in particular on the verge of flipping red. So can you do it? Can Jack Chudorelli flip New Jersey for the GOP? I’ve got all the early voting data and we just had a poll drop that’s going to absolutely blow you away. Hey gang! It’s me, Dr. Steve Eore, a Patreon professor, enjoying yet another day in the glorious golden age that you made happen back on November the 5th. So if you want a front row seat on how you continue to change the world in ways you never even imagined, make sure to smack that bell and subscribe button.

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Election Day has arrived, and the race that all Republican eyes are on is happening in the otherwise Democrat stronghold of New Jersey. Now, the very fact that we’re even considering Jersey flipping red is itself indicative of a massive political realignment that’s happening in our nation. Don’t forget Joe Biden won Jersey by 16 points just a few short years ago. Jersey is basically the Democrat equivalent of Tennessee for the Republicans. So, we were talking today about a Democrat gubernatorial candidate possibly flipping Tennessee blue. That would certainly be a very real cause for concern if you’re Republican.

Conversely, if you’re a Democrat and you have what was once one of your most reliably blue states on the verge of flipping red, even with the Republicans in power in D.C., because Jersey tends to vote the opposite of whichever party is in the White House, that is not a good sign. Now, of course, they’re going to do everything they possibly can to convince you that Democrats eking out wins in otherwise deep blue states is somehow a victory for progressives and a repudiation of Trump and an ominous bellwether for the midterms. Yeah, blah, blah, blah.

Don’t buy it. Don’t make no mistake behind all their fain bravado. Democrat insiders are panicked. They know their party brand is in the toilet. They know they bud lighted themselves and they’re in big trouble if an otherwise reliably blue state like New Jersey is in play for the Republicans all the while a Republican is in the White House. And so I want this video to encourage you, come what may today, whatever the outcome, speaking of encouragement, to put all of this in perspective. Yesterday, Jack Torelli, while on the campaign trail, got a very special surprise.

You know why, Jack? Come over here a second. Okay, because this is an honor for what I’m going to say right now that you don’t know what I’m going to say right now. But your biggest supporter that serves this country just came over overnight to serve you. Jake, your father. Yeah, Jack’s son, an army officer stationed in Kuwait flew all the way back to Jersey to be with his dad on election day. And that’s what it’s all about. That’s what we’re ultimately fighting for, faith, family and freedom. And to that end, Jack got some pretty astonishing news.

This is from Kalshi. That’s the betting site. And it’s fascinating because betting sites like Kalshi and Polymarket actually tend to have astonishing predictive accuracy. Now, they polled traders who actually live in Jersey, and they found that 86% believe Jack is going to win. That’s huge. Again, betting sites historically have been amazingly accurate in their predictive significance. I mean, the guys who are betting on there seem to have downed the whole science of statistical probability. And while Polymarket is giving Mikey Sherrill, the Democrat, an 80% chance of winning. Kalshi, New Jerseyans, are giving Jack a 90% chance of winning.

And that’s in line with the anecdotal evidence that I’m getting here being in the greater Philly area where I’m hearing from lots of people that they’re seeing Jack Chatterilly signs everywhere. There’s a lot of enthusiasm for him in contrast to the rather noticeable absence of such support for the Democrat Mikey Sherrill. And that’s important because, and I want to make sure you have the most accurate assessment of what’s happening today, what’s transpiring. It’s important because Jack, unfortunately, has not led in a single poll. So here’s the RCP polling average.

And as you can see, Jack is not up in a single poll. Now again, we saw that in 2016, right, where Trump shocked the world, as it were, because he was so far behind Hillary in the polls. There’s always going to be a polling bias skewed towards the left precisely because the polling industry is overwhelmingly leftist. It’s one of the reasons why they’re always so bad. But even the ones we trust, okay, that were extremely accurate in 2024. So we’re talking Atlas Intel, Qantas Insights, Trafalgar. They do have this race statistically tied.

They have it within one to three points. But nevertheless, the edge always belongs to the Democrat. And that’s the reality going into this election that I want to make sure you all have and you hold. We have to underscore just how astonishing it is. That is state that voted for the Democrat presidential candidate by 16 points just a few short years ago, could possibly even be this close, this neck and neck with the Republican candidate. But that said, Jersey, in the end, is still a Democrat state. It’s Democrat voter registrations, far outnumber Republicans.

We’re talking by hundreds of thousands. And that’s just, that’s a very tall mountain for Jack to climb, because in the end, there’s just more Democrats than Republicans. There’s no way around that. On the other hand, that said, the reality is that Jack has indeed been surging in the polls. So Mikey Sherrill’s once commanding lead has basically evaporated back in August. Again, just a few weeks ago, she had a very comfortable double digit lead, a 10 point lead. Fast forward to today. And that margin has been slashed dramatically. And to make matters even worse, she can’t seem to get above 48, 49 percent support.

That’s very concerning for her. She’s stuck below the crucial 50 percent threshold. And that’s a warning sign in a state where undecided voters historically break Republican. Moreover, circling back Saki to the polls here, if we go back to 2021, the RCP polling average was actually off by five. It gave Democrat incumbent Phil Murphy a 7.8 point lead. How do I say that? Well, seven point eight point lead, right? But he only won by two point eight points. So if that’s the case today, if if the RCP polling average is as off as it was in 2021, Mikey Sherrill is up by three, according to the latest RCP polling average.

If that’s the case, Jack wins by two. Right. If the past is precedent, if the past is predictive of what the polling error will be for today. So there’s multiple factors to consider here. Another very, very good sign is how Jack has been doing in the early voting. So we’ve had weeks now of mail in ballots and in person early voting. And we’d see that Jack has dramatically improved his position as compared to his 2021 gubernatorial run when he lost by just under three points. Democrats currently hold a two hundred and sixty six thousand vote firewall with a 22 percent margin going into the final stretch.

So twenty two percent more Democrats have turned out for early voting than Republicans. But at the same time, back in twenty twenty one, they had a near forty percent advantage, thirty seven percent to be exact. So Jack has slashed that Democrat advantage by fifteen percentage points. It’s a very significant improvement that suggests real momentum on the ground. So Democrats have cast fifty one percent of early ballots. Republicans have cast twenty nine percent. Whereas in twenty twenty one, Democrats ran away with it. They had cast fifty nine percent of ballots. Republicans trailed by just twenty two percent.

So while the Democrats have seen an increase in the actual real amount of early votes cast, they’ve had an eighty one percent increase. Republicans have surged their early vote cast by one hundred and thirty three percent. So Republican early vote growth is running fifty percent higher than Democrat growth, signaling again genuine grassroots energy that just wasn’t there four years ago or at least a very, very effective get out the vote campaign that wasn’t there four years ago. Moreover, Democrats appear to be depleting more of their high propensity voter pool in the early voting that Republicans are.

OK, so what’s that about? Well, high propensity voters are voters that have come out and voted in every election and at least four of the last four elections. But ideally, you want your early voters to be low propensities. Those who have only come out, say, in one or maybe even none of the last four elections because voters who rarely vote cannot be counted on to come out on Election Day today. So Democrats have already used up a much higher proportion of their high propensity voters in their early voting, whereas Republicans were quite effective in getting their low propensity voters to vote early, which means that today all the high propensity Republicans are going to turn out a mass.

And that’s that’s what we’re going to be looking for today. That’s what’s so key. If we can see a 60 40 Republican voter turnout today on Election Day, Jack has a very real chance of pulling this off again. The difficulty here is that because the Democrats have increased their number of early votes, when you bring in the final tally of those votes, they’re going to have more or less the same firewall that they had back in 2021 when all is said and done. The key is whether the Republicans were able to minimize that early vote firewall with an inordinate number of low propensity voters, freeing up a massive surge of high propensity voters for today who were definitely going to show up for Election Day.

So bottom line, these are very strong early voting numbers for Jack and excellent signs of momentum for his campaign. This race is very much in play today. Regardless of what happens, this is not the position the Democrats wanted to be in, not in a state that Biden won by 16 points. Democrats should be winning by double digits. They were back in August. They were. That’s what they thought they were going to be looking at. Instead, they’ve had to pour millions upon millions of dollars. They didn’t want to have to porn. They had to drag out the old corpse Obama to go and campaign for Mikey.

Cheryl, I mean, we are instead of a runaway race, we’re looking at what is essentially a toss up. So New Jersey voters gang, this is your moment. The race isn’t designed till all votes are counted. Get to the polls. Bring everyone you know. Make your voice heard. Jack left everything on the field in this campaign, and now it’s up to voters to determine whether that effort translates into a stunning upset or a near miss that sets the stage for future competitive races in the Garden State. Regardless of what happens, one thing is certain.

New Jersey is no longer the safe Democrat stronghold at once was. Jersey will one day flip red. Let’s make that day today. Every Thursday I go off script, literally in the car, in a hotel, on my porch, wherever I am, it’s Turley Walks, raw, unfiltered, inside exclusive to my courageous Patriot Club members. Join now for $10 a month. Turley dot pub slash club. [tr:trw].

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