➡ The World Gold Council predicts that gold will perform steadily in 2025, influenced by economic risk, expansion, opportunity cost, and momentum. This prediction is based on gold’s strong performance in recent years, driven by central bank and investor buying. The report also discusses the increasing entrenchment of inflation, with a leading indicator for US inflation showing a consistent level above 2% for the last 18 months. The article concludes that gold’s role as a hedge remains strong, especially in times of geopolitical uncertainty and financial market volatility.
➡ The article discusses various economic and technological updates. Unemployment claims are higher than expected, and Open AI has released real-time video capabilities for chat GPT. There are concerns about AI’s potential misuse and influence. Warner Brothers is splitting into two companies, and Apple is focusing on in-house components. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates due to weaker growth forecasts. Trump’s economic advisors are considering increasing the state and local tax deduction, which could benefit residents of New York, New Jersey, and California. Lastly, Fortuna Mining has updated their mineral reserves and resources for their Saguella mine.

The World Gold Council predicts a range-bound but resilient performance for gold in 2025. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey. Where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning everyone. I’m Vince Lancey. It’s Friday. We’re going to discuss today in the market rundown. Inflation is getting entrenched. A piece from a couple days ago, right before CPI, by a Bloomberg macro analyst, which we got something out of. So we want to share it with you.

Especially after yesterday’s PPI. And we’re also going to discuss the World Gold Council’s 2025 gold outlook, which as always is a must read for gold people. Let’s start with the markets. We’ll leave the gold chart up there. All right. Ten year yields are up almost two basis points of 434.7. The dollar is 106.93 down 7. The S&P 500 is 60.75 up 24. The VIX is 13.42 down 49. Gold is 26.68 down 12. Silver is 30.77 down 13. Copper is 419 down almost about half cent. WTI is 70.67 off the bottom of a range.

Up 59 I think. Natural gas is 329 down two cents. Bitcoin is 100,390 up 298. Ethereum is 39.07 up 24. Palladium is up a couple bucks at 973. Platinum 934 up a dollar. Gold silver is slightly firmer. 86. Soy is down three at 994. Corn is unchanged. Offered at 430 and wheat is up a little more than a little less than a penny at 562. There’s the gold chart. You could see that’s the 50 day moving average that we’re right on top of. And below that is the 100 day that’s served as support the first time down.

We’ll do a little chart exploration later on in the conversation. Inflation is getting entrenched. Okay. I’m going to discuss that. There’s that story I repented. It’s two days old, which is old I guess by our standards. But you know it’ll be in Bloomberg in about six weeks, even though one of their better analysts wrote it. All right. Moving on. Silver’s time to shine. Thursday’s PM post. We’ll get into that stuff later on. Let’s start with the World Gold Council’s gold outlook for 2025. The World Gold Council predicts a range bound but resilient performance for gold in 2025 contingent on four key drivers.

Economic risk. Economic expansion. Sorry. Risk, opportunity, cost, and momentum. Risk is a very broad term. We’ll get into that later on. Quoting them, gold is poised for its best annual performance in more than a decade, up 28% through November. Behind this, central bank and investor buying have more than offset a notable deceleration in consumer demand. Asian investors have been a near constant presence with lower yields and a weakening US dollar in Q3 fueled Western investment flows. However, it is gold’s role as a hedge amidst rising market volatility and geopolitical risk that most likely explains its remarkable performance.

We will abstain from comment. There are several nice charts in here. Here’s one it’s good to work with. It’s like a blank you want to keep handy, I think. Gold responds to a combination of factors that influence its role as a consumer good at investment assets. So dark blue is very bullish. Dark red is very bearish. And then at the top, you have three columns. Fed funds rate giving the scenarios. And then it goes through how sensitive the market would be to these factors given the different rate scenarios. Now, if you look at that for a little bit longer, pardon me for reverse engineering this.

Basically, they’ve taken these factors, opportunity cost, economic expansion, risk and uncertainty, momentum. And they’ve given them a correlation. What’s another word for it? A percentage. And then they said fed really in it fed with rates too high, fed with rates just right, fed with rates too cheap. And it basically you’ll see these go from they’ll change based on that color. Anyway, it’s a nice little nice little commentary there. The report concludes, quote, gold’s raw as a hedge remains firmly cemented, particularly in an environment of geopolitical uncertainty and financial market volatility.

Potential risks such as central bank demand deceleration or prolonged monetary tightening could introduce headwinds. But the interplay of these factors underscores gold strategic value. Prolonged monetary tightening. Well, we’re in an easing cycle right now worldwide. Okay, so if they mean in the bigger picture, yeah, that’s that’s actually a big deal. So this continues at the bottom. Inflation is getting entrenched. There is a good leading indicator for US inflation. Now, it’s good, but it’s gotten better post COVID. It includes in its outputs, commodities, money growth and lagged inflation. As the chart below shows, we’ll get to that in a second.

The indicator had moved sideways and has remained above 2% for the last 18 months either red oval there. Now, the inputs that go into this, that’s the bronze or gold line there are, I need to leave this up here for a second so I can remember, are commodities, right? So it takes commodity prices and current prices and pulls them into the calculation. It takes money growth, current money growth and pulls into the calculation and lag inflation, which is inflation that’s in the pipeline, but hasn’t been felt yet. Let’s say like rent rises or other things that come up in contractual fashion, union wages, and it throws them all in there and it tries to predict the next level.

Now, I looked at this relatively closely and it’s not perfect, but it seems to be perfect since 2020. That meaning it will spike before inflation does. It will drop before inflation does. And now it’s chopping around, make it bigger for you now, I can. Yeah, not bigger. All right, well, you get the idea. It will chop, it’s chopping right now. So the question is will it chop and break or will it chop and rally? So forget the question, right? Look at it from a technician’s point of view. This was the bottom then, right? And this is the bottom now.

So I don’t think it’s usually the bottom, unless there’s a crisis, financial crisis, didn’t even get below this level during COVID. That’s because they just funneled so much money into the market. Anyway, look, it’s basic. Now, the reason I’m bringing this up today, aside from the obvious is PPI was yesterday. Now, I mentioned PPI doesn’t get as much attention as it should from the mainstream media, but in many ways it can be more important or a leading indicator. And PPI came in very hot yesterday. It’ll come in a little bit higher than normal, but let’s just zoom out a little bit, okay? Just the paraphrase would zero, I’d say.

It was already supposed to come in higher and it was expected to come in higher by 0.2%. So we’re already expecting higher inflation. Inflation bottom is what I mean, but it came in even higher than that. So what does PPI reflect? It reflects inflation in the pipeline like this. So commodity demand, raw material demand, things that manufacturers buy going into making their products. Now, if they pass the cost on, that becomes CPI. If they don’t, that becomes potentially recession. So here we are. Do you think they’re going to pass the cost on? Well, yeah, I think they’re going to pass the cost on because it’s being entrenched.

That’s what this article is. And it’s very good. I recommend you read it. If you’re looking for a, are we at the bottom of inflation? If you’re hoping it’ll go lower, it’s not going to go lower. I mean, you know, I want it to go lower, but it won’t go lower into things that you need it to go lower in. How’s that? Maybe air fares will get cheaper. Anyway, there’s a link to that as well. What’s the final line I have in this? I have a line here. Oh yeah. This is a quote from the article.

CPI auto correlates, which is one of the reasons why inflation can become entrenched as it looks to be today. So they’re basically saying this bottoming will become a bottoming in CPI. It auto self correlates. Moving on, news and analysis, gold and silver, EFP leads to mini COMEX squeeze. That was yesterday’s chat EPT topic. I just gave it a more gold and silver headline. Rabbo two more cuts and likely fed likely done. It’s an interesting article. I think the consensus is now the emerging consensus from the banks is two cuts. This one in January and that’s it.

Founders what can go right under Trump in 2025. That’s Deutsche Bank’s analysis. Jim Reed Thursday PM post was his, which is a combination of things. Market news. The first news item is the one that we care about as gold and silver people as precious metals and commodities people. The producer price index increased 0.4 for December higher than the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 0.2, which is what I just said. However, excluding food, however, anything, however, is the word, but in these articles, okay, this has got to be mainstream media. However, excluding food and energy, however, is this is the truth and here’s the spit.

That’s what however, means in a mainstream media article. So however, excluding food and energy core PPI increased 0.2% meeting the forecast. First time claims for unemployment insurance total of seasonally adjusted 242,000 for the week ending December 7th versus the two 22 forecast. So in combination, that’s very stagflationary, right? PPI is hotter than expected. Unemployment is, or claims for unemployment are higher than expected. But overall, I think the Fed’s looking at the inflation thing again right now. Next, open AI has finally released a real time video capabilities for chat GPT that it demoed nearly seven months ago.

And there’s a whole story on that, but I chopped it off. Um, comment about this, right? You could just change the channel right now if you want, but this is, this is, this is AI being dangerous. All right. About, about seven years ago, I’m a, I’m a little bit of a, I’m a, I’m a techo file. About seven years ago, there was a product and that product, uh, was a combination of hardware. So basically you would have an iPhone, right? And, and, uh, you would hold the iPhone and you would have a camera attached and hanging around your neck and the camera would see everything you saw, right? And you would have an earpiece.

Um, and you would have, you would have your phone and the camera would look at something. And when you looked at, when, when the camera looked at something, uh, it would, you had glasses for, uh, uh, to see, right? So it’s kind of like the, uh, uh, the, the visual glasses, right? So you had the glasses on as well. So your phone’s in your pocket. Okay. Boom. That’s your computer, your camera’s here and you’re wearing these glasses. This is before what we’re about to get into the camera would look at something.

You would look at something and the foot, the camera would process what it saw, look on the internet for it, find it, and then give you an explanation of what it was. Okay. And it would also give you potential for recommendations and what have you. So you walk into a store, right? And you’d look at a shirt and it will be $20 and it would give you what the shirt’s made of and all these things. And, and the person that was, was, was recommending that was showing this, uh, got into the fact that it could be very hazardous because whoever’s platform you subscribe to would make you, uh, forget the advertising, uh, uh, parts of it, right? Forget that.

At least you know what’s coming on that, but you’re going to be steered away from things, uh, because, you know, it’ll, it’ll, it’ll say it’ll basically tell you what it wants. It’s ideal. It’s, it makes a lot of room for ideology, right? So, or ideology, depending on how you say it anyway. So AI is this concept in one spot, you know, uh, it’s going to recognize something. It’s going to tell you the facts about it. And then it’s going to have a license to spin, uh, however, but, and then it’s going to go through these things and just basically program you anyway.

So far from being a Luddite, these are very dangerous tools in the wrong hands. And there are no right hands to have absolute power. All right. Uh, enough with that over. Right. So, uh, Warner brothers is going to split. Basically they’re going to go and split into two companies. The one that’s not making money and the one that’s going to have potential growth. Apple’s ambitious plan to create in-house components. It’s the era of hardware. Uh, uh, if you look at the cycles of computers, uh, the last say 30 years or 20 years, let’s say we’re a software generated, right? Software gave you all the capability before that it was the hardware.

So the hardware got really good. Then the software caught up and now, uh, the software can only do so much and now, uh, better hardware is coming out and then we’ll have a potentiality from the hardware from software in the next generation. But it’s kind of like a little bit of a leapfrog thing. Uh, beneath a stock market that goes from one record to the next lies a concerning trend for some wall street strategist. Pure stocks are a butcher saying future saying the advance Bloomberg. Uh, that’s 12 months later, that story came out.

Uh, the European central bank cut interest rate. This is important. I think if you’re, if you’re European, the European central bank cut interest rates by a quarter point to 3% as it watered down its hawkish language and warn that growth would be weaker than it had previously forecast. They’re going to have to ease if we keep easing to catch up and they’re a little bit out of sync with us. Plus they have to deal with the dollar. Um, and, uh, Ukraine war is not helping their economy. So if the fed stops cutting, what do they do? Anyway, um, here’s a surprise.

Trump’s economic advisors are considering doubling the state and local tax deduction, a popular but expensive tax break that could deliver big savings to many residents of New York, New Jersey, and California. All right. Um, this is extremely interesting to me, but I don’t, there’s another piece to this and maybe you have a piece hasn’t dropped yet, but it’s probably some serious 3d chess here. Uh, these are blue States, right? Um, uh, increasing deductions for these States, uh, you know, this would encourage people. This would dis encourage people to leave those States.

This keeps home values in the States higher and reduces trend transients out of States. And those are the States that are losing the most people due to taxes. So it could be, it could be pretty, pretty smart. All right. Moving on. That’s initial reaction. I have no idea, right? So today’s data, uh, import price index of eight 30 and there’s the gold outlook charts, a couple of charts there. Gold is gold is, uh, on the 50 day. Don’t expect that to hold. I’m not bearish, but the 50 day is not that important, especially when it has a flat line.

If it’s sloping up or sloping down, people care about it more. So it could shop around there. It could go through it. Silver on the other hand is back to near the 100 day, but the 100 days sloping up. That’s good. Um, uh, moving to the next chart, I did a little bit of work this morning. I think I actually recorded it in error. Uh, let’s put those little lines there. All right. So gold’s MACD is coming off over, bought silvers on its way to oversold actually quite neutral. Oh, I know what I wanted to share.

Give you a, give you a, we’ll hide this. We don’t need this right now. All right. I wrote it down. Don’t be short silver. If gold gets back above 26, 75 and you know, it stabilizes above it. Uh, and don’t be long gold. If silver gets below 30, 65. So there’s your day, right? If silver gets below. Oh, this line, I drew the line, right? If silver gets below this line here, I’ll give you an hourly. If silver gets below that line, you’re not going to make money being long gold. I mean, you’ll probably make more money being short silver.

Uh, but on the flip side, if gold gets above this line just for today after nine 30, let’s say, uh, I wouldn’t be short silver. Silver could rocket if gold gets back into this range. Anyway, I’m Vince. Happy Friday and catch you all next week. Well, thank you to Vince and thanks to everyone watching at home. Sure. Hope you enjoyed the show and we appreciate you being here. And before we wrap up, I’d also like to thank Fortuna Mining who kindly brought us today’s show and actually had news out earlier this week as they’ve updated their mineral reserves and mineral resources for their saguetal mine and Cote d’Ivoire, which has become their flagship project proven and probable mineral reserves are reported in containing 1 million ounces of gold measured and indicated resources are at 396,000 ounces of gold and inferred mineral resources at 677,000 ounces of gold.

Also for 2024 saguella going to come in at the upper range of their guidance. And one last note is that they are continuing drilling. It is ongoing as saguella. They are targeting extensions down dip and a long strike at both kingfisher and sunbird and upon the completion of that drilling, they will be updating the kingfisher and sunbird inferred mineral resource estimates. So thank you to Fortuna. Thank you Vince and thank you watching at home. Sure. Appreciate you being here and we will see you again next week. Please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only.

Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions and thanks for watching. you
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