➡ The financial market is divided on the impact of Trump’s new tariffs. Goldman Sachs believes the tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China will be short-lived and won’t significantly affect the economy. On the other hand, Deutsche Bank predicts a major global trade shock with potential recession. Vince Lancy’s Morning Markets and Metals show discusses these views and the current state of various markets, including metals, which are on the rise.
➡ The article discusses the potential impact of tariffs on global trade and precious metals. Deutsche Bank warns that the tariffs could cause a global trade shock and possibly trigger recessions, while Goldman Sachs sees them as a temporary issue. The tariffs could also affect the precious metals market, with prices potentially rising due to increased costs. The article suggests that if there is no global economic collapse, the prices of silver and gold should increase.
➡ The value of gold and oil is increasing, while the Canadian dollar, Mexican peso, and Euro are weakening. This is due to potential tariff threats. Despite this, there’s still a strong demand for gold and silver. It’s suggested that investing in precious metals could be a safer option than stocks, especially with the current economic uncertainties.

The market is split on the potential impact of Trump’s new tariffs. Goldman Sachs takes a relatively optimistic stance, arguing that the tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China will be short lived and have limited economic impact. Meanwhile, Deutsche bank sees the situation as a major shock to global trade with recessionary consequences. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancy where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now here’s Vince. Good morning, I’m Vince Lancy and we have another busy morning. Let’s try and stick to the facts today with some extemporaneous comments about metals which are going up.

Let’s start with the metals. Let’s start with the markets in general. 10 year yields are down almost 4 basis points at 450. The dollar is 109 30, very strong, up 80 but off the highs. S&P 500 is off the lows but very weak at 59.35, down 103. The VIX is 20, up 3 1/2 percentage points, which is 22% in fixed terms. The gold is up 28, is up 12 at 2810. Silver is up 2 cents, up 31. They were both down significantly last night. Gold was down I think one and a third percent and silver was down almost 2% at one point.

We’ll discuss that in context. Copper 423, down 37 basis points by the way, all consistent. What we have doesn’t go up in price. What we don’t have goes up in price. But that’s neither here nor there. WTI up 50 at 75. Well, we do have oil, so that might not be right. Natural gas360, up holy shit. 23 cents 7%. Bitcoin 948 75, a victim of the tariffs, down 2800. Palladium up 13 at 1023. Platinum 973, down 5. Gold, silver down a little bit or up a little bit? I should say soybean 1030. Corn 469. Wheat 567, down 8, down 7, down 2 respectively.

Looks like they’re all being hit. I’m not so sure if that’s tariff related, but there you have it. Okay, what are we going to talk about today? Well, it’s metals and tariffs. I believe it’s very important that you have free trade. But we don’t have free trade right now. That’s a 1987 interview between Donald Trump and Larry King. I also believe, I believe very strongly in tariffs. America is being ripped off. We’re A debtor nation. And we have to tax, we have to tariff, we have to protect this country. A 1989 interview with Diane Sawyer. Today’s discussion is on tariffs.

And in premium section we have an ultimate, we think an ultimate slideshow on trade protectionism by Deutsche bank, courtesy of Zero Hedge. Thank you very much. All right, front page. Plenty there already. But it’s mostly metals, right? So the LBMA doesn’t have the gold. That’s our contention and that’s because we want the gold. Hartnet China Deep Seek turns mag 7 into lag 7 between Deep Seek and tariffs, Tech stocks should perform poorly. And this came out before the tariffs were announced. So that’s on his game right now. How Trump’s 2025 tariffs lower left hand corner on Canada, Mexico impact gold and silver.

That’s why Scottsdale met. It’s actually very good, very informative piece that allows us to have a jumping off point for further conversation. All right, discussion. Trump signs executive orders imposing tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. We’re going to go through the facts, Tom. We’re going to go through the analysis quickly and then we’re going to go through the implications. And then finally in premium, we’ll go through history. All right, the facts. On Saturday, President Trump signed executive orders imposing new tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada and China, set to take effect on February 4. The measures include a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada, with an exception for energy products, which will face a 10% tariff.

Imports from China will also be subject to a 10% tariff applied on top of existing duties. While the specifics of which energy products qualify for the lower tariff have yet to be released. The list is expected to include oil, gas and electricity. A Federal Register notice is anticipated providing further details on product classification and implementation. With only two days before enforcement, actually one day now, or actually zero days now, the tariffs appear set to proceed as planned, though the possibility of a last minute compromise remains. The White House has framed the decision as a response to fentanyl trafficking and immigration concerns, though the executive orders provide no clear benchmarks for removal beyond general improvements in those areas.

Very broad coverage if you want to improve. Very wide door for people to go through if they want to fix this. The tariffs appear set to proceed as planned, though the possibility of a last minute compromise remains. As I mentioned before, a key provision within the orders is something called a retaliation clause, which warns that any country imposing countermeasures such as new import duties on US Imports could face expanded or increased tariffs at the President’s discretion. While this signals a firm stance against potential pushback, it does not automatically trigger further trade actions. Quick aside, pro or con, what Trump is doing, the fact is that we are the country that has the least tariffs on imported goods, which is significant considering that we import the most goods.

Our lack of tariffs makes our industries more free market oriented. But other nations use tariffs to protect their own domestic industries. So for example, Japan would protect its own industry with a tariff so that they can import. Our industries are subject to foreign tariffs. Okay, now you can make the case that we do that we counterbalance it with the dollar policies, but that’s neither here nor the fact of the matter is if they retaliate for us putting tariffs on them, well, they already have tariffs on us, so they’re going to retaliate more anyway. The point is in tariff terms, they started it and it’s been going on for a long time.

Remember from the 1987 quote that he had with Larry King or I forget who. But it’s an uneven playing field as far as far as tariffs are concerned. All right, moving on to the next section. Wall street is divided, right? And by divided I mean they probably aren’t divided ideologically. They think they know what’s, they’re probably right about what’s going to happen, but what they choose to discuss short term versus long term. So Goldman’s view is that the tariffs themselves are temporary and contained. Deutsche Bank’s view is more of a global trade shock risk. Now here’s the divergent views, a little bit more meat on that.

The market is split on the potential impact of Trump’s new tariffs. Goldman Sachs takes a relatively optimistic stance, arguing that the tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China will be short lived and have limited economic impact. Meanwhile, Deutsche bank sees the situation as a major shock to global trade with recessionary consequences. Goldman’s view temporary and contained. Goldman’s chief economist, Jan Little Boy Hatzius, acknowledges the uncertainty, but believes the tariffs, particularly those targeting Canada and Mexico, are unlikely to last. He points to general conditions for their removal set by the White House, meaning broad conditions which suggest they may not remain in place too long.

He also had previously estimated that a sustained 25% tariff on Canadian Mexican imports would raise US core PCE inflation by 0.7% and cut GDP by 0.4%, while a 10% tariff on energy products would slightly reduce that impact. His forecast already accounts for a 20% tariff on Chinese imports, which he estimates boosts core inflation by 0.3%. Given the new developments, he plans to review those projections. Another quick aside, if you’re looking for a reason outside of what an analyst will tell you, although he’s not incorrect there, the reason that Mexico and Canada would be short lived. If you want to get inside Trump’s head here for a second, this is a global trade war and the final boss is China.

Okay? Now if you’re in an onshoring, reshoring, friend, shoring situation, a mercantilist, protectionist environment, well, what you’d want to do is you would think that you would want to cuddle with or even coddle your geop GE geographic neighbors while you demonize your geographic distance competitors, especially China. And so you would say, hey, you’re with us. Well, Trump is leading with stick and he’ll finish with carrot. I say this confidently, I may not be right, but I say this confidently. Trump is gearing up for the final boss and he’s a new president with a short term, short lived, short term mandate.

If he doesn’t show progress, then he’s going to lose that from the senators. So he’s trying to basically bond the locals, right? Our continental locals to us, starting with a stick. Now, he looks like a bully. That is his style. But the reality of it is, behind the scenes, he’s probably going to give them something to capitulate and then he gets to take those two wins, declare victory and sit down with the final boss in this video game of tariffs. So ultimately his goal is to bond more closely the whole western hemisphere to the US he chooses to lead with stick.

And can you blame him? His opinion is that there’s plenty of carrot out there. They already have and he’ll give them some more, I’m sure. But this is not an unguided missile. This is not a loose cannon. This is a person who in this instance, in this iteration, is doing it the way he wants to. But it is what has to be done one way or another. Okay, back to the opinions Deutsche Bank. Deutsche Bank’s view is it’s a global trade shock. In stark contrast, Deutsche Bank’s chief FX strategist George Saravellos views the tariffs as the biggest disruption to global trade since the collapse of Bretton Woods.

Pretty aggressive. In a Sunday report titled A Huge Shock, he warns that if the tariffs move forward, they could trigger immediate recessions in some economies and widespread economic fallout across global markets. Yeah, I think if that 25% tariff on Mexico were to stay, they’re in recession tomorrow. Boom, right? I mean, that’s it. While Goldman sees temp again Putting them together. While Goldman sees temporary friction, Deutsche bank warns of long term structural damage to global trade. The coming weeks will reveal whether Trump’s tariffs play out as a short term bargaining tool or a mark of a deeper shift in economic policy.

I don’t think so much that Wall street is divided so much as they’re looking at it in different ways. For example, Goldman is more of a trading firm and they see the tariffs as temporary and contained and that could easily be because they think the way I think in terms of what Trump is doing here. China on the other hand, could be a completely different story. But you can’t not get along with Canada and Mexico. I mean, plus they’re not going to bond together against the US it’s basically he’s creating a prisoner’s dilemma situation. If one of the two capitulates, they will both capitulate.

What does capitulation mean? I don’t know. Spending more money on fighting cartels, you know, reinstating the Montreal Expos as a baseball team? I don’t know. But that’s how Trump operates and he has operated that way since the 80s when I studied his modus operandi very closely as a young Wall street person. Anyway, all right, so context, ultimate tariff slideshow. We’ll show that at the bottom what it reveals and it’s all, it’s almost all charts and headlines. It’s very easy to deal with. This is not there. We’re bearish on things but it does lay out their case.

Tariff history in America. The 2018, 2019 tariff war, trade war, what happened and the estimates of impact of this trade war. Again, the difference between Goldman it’s going to be short lived. I mean, sorry, it’s going to be contained and Deutsche bank it’s a global trade shock is time. In the short term Goldman’s right. In the long term, Deutsche bank is right. So what happens? Well, what happens is how long they last. Okay, next, precious metals. Before we actually look at a chart, things are looking good there now. Precious metals and commodities. Precious metals investors are scrambling to understand what these sweeping changes mean for their portfolios.

Let’s cut through the noise and examine the real impacts on the precious metals market. Despite the best wishes of bullion collectors, President Trump’s actions on tariffs have leave no carve out or exceptions for bullion and monetary metals. Here’s Josh Fair. That comes up nice, nice and big. Here’s Josh Fair, CEO of Scottsdale Mint. Gold and silver did not get an exemption on Canada and Mexico tariffs. Maple lease will be 25% higher immediately. I’m not sure if he’s referring to new or existing, but let’s assume that it covers everything. They’re all going to converge on existing buy American, says Trump.

No more Justin Trudeau bullion. Let the games begin. I would believe he means let the games begin, meaning the negotiation as well as the, the chaos surrounding pricing. Well, again, we’ll talk about that in a second. While the 25% tariff sounds dramatic, the actual market of market impact will be more nuanced. It’s not to contradict what Josh is saying. It’s saying that there’s arbitrage opportunities right now. So here’s the kicker again from Scottsdale. 80% of US silver grain used in the bullying market comes from abroad, mostly Mexico. This isn’t just about a few sovereign coins. Your favorite cast bars and rounds could get caught in the crossfire as US Based dealers and mints work to find alternative raw material providers.

Source Scottsdale Mint. We’re going to talk more about that. But it’s kind of like this. Domestic prices won’t go up to 25% higher until existing inventory is cleaned out. So if the new ones are 25% coins that are already here, maybe they won’t be 25%, but they’ll be higher. So it’s kind of like talking about, talking about metals in general. Right? Tariffs are about simple supply and demand. Okay. Tariffs are inflationary to us for example, coin buyers. Right? Let’s say you’re only buying coins now. That’s inflationary. And so what will happen? Those who buy pay a higher price, but less will buy.

So it’s recessionary to exporters. So now you take, you take the regional issue. Let’s say it’s just Mexico and, and just the U.S. right. Americans. Mexico will lose American demand because of the increased price. Is America their biggest customer? If we are, and if silver is only used for, for, for investor purposes, well, then the price goes down. Right? The price goes down because we’re not buying it anymore. So the tariff stays on, but the price drops, including the tariff. Because demand goes down. Not necessarily. But what is necessary is Mexico shrinks. Mexico has a recession when it comes to selling silver because we’re just not buying as much anymore.

Right. Our inflation is their recession. Again, only two countries in this conversation, only commodity they trade is silver. Now zoom out. Is the US the biggest buyer of is the US Mexico’s biggest customer could be, I don’t know. But we’re not big enough to shut them down by not buying Their coins, number one. That’s where China comes in. What has China been doing for the past year? Not too, not too dumb. China has been buying concentrate unrefined silver. It hasn’t been hitting the price market, but they’re creating supply chains that are now alternatives, that are safety nets that are securing Mexico’s business.

So every grain of silver, so China is the competing demand. So now you enter China into this little triangle, right? And the US says we’re not buying silver coins anymore. China says, okay, we’ll buy it. I mean we’ll, we’ll buy your grain, right? So the grain goes up in price for the US but not for China. So China will buy that grain as high as. This is why it’s inflationary. Can buy that grain as high as 24% and still be saving money, allegedly. So now you have it. If the US was the only demand in the world on the investor side, then the price would not go up.

They would have to lower their price to keep the tariff from affecting our demand. But China is going to step up and buy even more if they have to. But silver is not an investment metal. Purely our own experience and personal like aside, silver is an industrial metal, right? And the world demand for silver dwarfs the demand for it monetarily. So far I think that’ll change, but that’s neither here nor there. So demand for silver industrially will remain the same globally. But here’s the key in the US non investor coin buying, right? So now we’re back to the US industrial.

Let’s pretend now we have. The US now has an industrial buyer of silver. They’re buying it because they’re putting it into finished goods. They have to buy it anyway. They’re going to pay, they’re going to buy the same amount of silver. They’re just going to raise their price or absorb some of the tariff. The point is, generally speaking, if the demand, if the. Now you have to zoom totally out. If the world’s demand for silver is bigger than the US well then the price of silver is going to go up in the world. And so what ends up happening is the price.

I believe, unless there is a recession or depression, I believe that the price of silver has to go up from this. Any dips are from people discounting to sell. Any dips are people saying oh recession, let’s sell silver. Right, okay. Oh recession, let’s sell gold. Now doesn’t make sense. Gold is an easier thing to understand. Right, so was more complex. Anyway, the point is, first of all, let me Just say that nobody knows. Nobody knows. Right. But I’m going to say what handicap what should happen? Right. If there is no global collapse in economies, then the price of silver should go up, the price of gold should go up.

So if those prices for items that are tariffed will go up and to the extent that they are dominating an economy, well then it creates a stagflationary environment for them. All right, moving on news and analysis. How Trump. Here’s, here’s the post I just quoted from Hartnet founders. Some simple targets don’t hold me to that. Those are just mathematical targets from technicians. Breaking tariffs drive weekend gold prices of 3%. Pax gold rallied like 4, 4 and a half percent and usually it’s usually over bakes things but it’s usually right directionally and so far so good despite last night’s panic special reading.

You know what that is? Trump reference 100 tariff threat. Well if it’s PM, Goldman remains long golden oil. Goldman remains long golden oil. All right, data on deck. PMIs and unemployment. You can see that there. Final market check. All right then at the the premium at the bottom. Tom, stay with us and we’ll go through the slideshow with you. But right now let’s go through the markets. All right, so there’s your top right hand side gold top left hand side Canadian dollar lower left hand side Mexican peso Euro lower right hand side. Okay, so ignoring gold for a second.

Canadian dollar is much weaker. That’s it’s weaker so like 146 of them to buy a dollar. Now the peso much weaker. It takes almost 26 of them to buy a dollar where it used to take 20. And on the lower right hand side, the euro which is inverted because the euro trades above the dollar. Right. The Euro is working its way towards parity going from 103, 104 to 102. So the euro is pretty much almost a dollar again. All right, there you go. So staying with gold and silver. So here’s what happened last night. Reaction very nice.

V shaped bottom, very surprising actually. I guess I would have done nothing and got long above here. Well this is us buying. I think this is you. Oh boy. This is US demand. Taking the COMEX to the price of the tariff, whatever the global price is at 25% and that’ll be the US price if things hold up now, if the global price drops because there’s less demand, well then there’ll still be 25% added to it, more or less. Right. So gold’s up $11 now go to daily. What can I say? It looks good. This hasn’t stopped anyone from buying silver.

Harder to understand. Again, I’m long silver, right? Massive sell off last night to 3072 thereabouts on spot right at the top of the structure and rejected very hard. So I believe that the Tom, the dip buying is correct, right? The dip buying is correct. The new selling is incorrect. But the new selling is looking to get liquidity. I need dollars, right, because of this tariff stuff, right? And the dip buying is saying I have dollars. I’m not worried about liquidity. This is about leverage. People that are leveraged are puking. People that are not leveraged are buying.

Okay, one more thing I wanted to talk about. If you want to be long press, I’m not telling you what to do, but if you want to be long precious metals, the trade is to be long precious metals and to be sure, something economic, you know, the trade may already be out there. Long precious metals, short Euro stocks. Because Europe is next. He’s going to move into. After he wins in Mexico and Canada, he’s going to move to Europe. You know, there’s no joke here. So being long precious metals might, might lose you money over the next six months.

I don’t think so. Again, my position says that, but I believe you’ll lose a lot less money than if you’re long stocks. Right now my position is long silver and long and long bonds. My bond long is a hedge for this partial hedge for this tariff thing. Well, thanks for watching this morning’s Markets and Metals with Vince Lancy. We sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here. Hope you enjoyed the show and we’ll see you again tomorrow. Please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only.

Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions and thanks for watching it.
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