➡ The article explains how the Pie Cycle and Fuel Method indicators can predict Bitcoin’s price trends. The Pie Cycle uses two moving averages to signal when Bitcoin’s price might be too high. The Fuel Method measures Bitcoin miners’ earnings compared to the past year to indicate when Bitcoin might be overvalued or undervalued. The article also mentions the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, a visual tool that shows Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory and market cycles. However, the author warns that these indicators might not always be accurate due to changes in the market, such as the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs and institutional money.

➡ This text discusses five key indicators for predicting Bitcoin market peaks: the MVRV score, the nupl, the pie cycle top indicator, the pure multiple, and the Bitcoin rainbow chart. These indicators help to make informed decisions about when to buy or sell Bitcoin. However, the author emphasizes that no single indicator is perfect and it’s best to consider multiple indicators together. The author also advises against trying to time the market perfectly, suggesting instead to focus on long-term asset accumulation and using Bitcoin-backed loans for liquidity needs.

Bitcoin’s exploding, but here’s the real question. How much higher can it go, and how will you know when it’s time to stop buying? Because history’s clear. Every bull run ends the same way. Maximum euphoria, insane price target, and then the rug gets pulled. And if you’re not paying attention, you’re gonna be the exit liquidity. Now, I made several videos showing when it was the last bottom of the cycle by looking at these data signals. And the same data signals, well, they’re flashing again, and they’re telling us something different. So are we nearing the peak of the cycle? Or is there still room for Bitcoin to run to 200,000 or maybe even beyond? The answer isn’t based on opinion.

It’s based on cold, hard data. The same data that’s helped investors ride every major Bitcoin boom and sidestep brutal crashes. And today, I’m breaking down the five most important indicators that has signaled every major market top before it happens. And indicator number five, if history repeats, could give us the final price target for where Bitcoin tops out in this cycle. Now, real quick, I’m Mark Moss. I’ve built and exited multiple tech companies. I’ve invested through several boom and busts. And today I’m a partner at a leading Bitcoin venture fund. I’m an advisor to multiple public tech companies.

I also write the Quantum Wave Investment Report, where I help investors navigate the biggest shifts in tech and money. And I make these videos to share the insights that we’re using so you can profit from these massive shifts before the rest of the world wakes up. So let’s go. All right, if you’ve been following me for a while, you know, I don’t just talk. I like to use data charts, graphs, headlines, what I call the receipts. Now, I’ve been speaking at Bitcoin conferences and making videos for years, tracking these exact indicators to help investors stay ahead of the market.

Now back when Bitcoin was trading between 15,000 and 20,000, I made multiple videos breaking down why these exact indicators were flashing historic buying opportunities. I told you Bitcoin was at a historic buying opportunities and that these charts were showing the kind of buy signals we only see once or twice in a cycle. Now, if you’d listen, then if you had stacked aggressively while everyone else was panicking, you’d be sitting on at least a 5x gain right now. But now those same indicators are telling us something different. They’re showing signs that we could be entering the later stages of this cycle.

So what are they telling us? Well, to answer that, let’s start with the first key indicator. All right. So this is probably the most reliable indicator in Bitcoin’s history. We call it the MVRVZ score. Now, if you could only watch one metric to identify when Bitcoin is overheated, or if it’s undervalued, this would probably be one of the ones at the top of the list. All right. The MVRVZ score, it looks at Bitcoin’s fair value versus the market price. So it helps us separate the hype from reality. It does this by using three key metrics.

The first one is market value. And this is the black line on the chart. And this is just Bitcoin’s total market cap. This is the current price multiplied by the total supply. All right. The second one, the blue line is the realized value. So instead of looking at the price today, realized value calculates the average price of every Bitcoin at the last time it moved on the blockchain. Now, this smooths out the short term hype. And it shows us where Bitcoin’s long term fair value is. And then finally, the orange line is the Z score.

And this is where the magic happens, right? The Z score measures how extreme the gap is between the market value and the realized value. It helps us identify the tops and the bottoms with incredible accuracy. So here’s why this indicator is so powerful. Historically, every time the Z score, the orange line, every time it enters the red zone, Bitcoin’s in a mania phase, and it’s close to topping out. And every time it drops into the green zone, Bitcoin’s at a massive discount. And here’s the crazy part. It’s predicted every single major Bitcoin top within about two weeks before the peak.

I mean, that’s a pretty good track record is one worth paying attention to. So what does the MVRVZ score say today? Well, right now, we’re trending upwards, but we’re still well below the extreme red zone. And so this tells us that Bitcoin isn’t in a full blown euphoria yet. But we need to watch closely because the moment we get into the red band history tells us the risk of a market peak goes way up. So here’s how I personally use this, the MVRVC score is that when it gets near the red zone, I start watching all the other indicators more closely.

Like I said, this may be one of the most important, not not the but one of the most important, but you need to look at a bunch of indicators. So I start looking at them more closely, I might adjust my buying. But I’ll come back to more about that later. But this is just one of five key indicators that we’re tracking to pinpoint when this cycle might top out. So let’s move on to indicator number two, which is net unrealized profit loss or in UPL. Now, if you want to know how Bitcoin investors really feel about the market, forget the headlines, right? This chart tells you everything you need to know it tracks raw investor sentiment, and it’s based on how much profit or loss Bitcoin holders are sitting on at any given moment.

And here’s the best part. It’s nailed the absolute peaks of Bitcoin’s biggest bull runs every single cycle. Okay, so how does it work? Well, the N UPL stands for net unrealized profit loss. So it’s a way of measuring how much paper profit or losses that investors are sitting on compared to Bitcoin’s total market cap. So essentially, are people holding massive gains? Or are they underwater? And it’s calculated using two key values. There’s the market value, that’s the black line on the chart. And this is Bitcoin’s total market cap, it’s the current price times the total supply, and then the realized value.

So instead of today’s price, it’s the realized value tracks the price of each Bitcoin at the last time it was moved. Now, this tells us what investors actually paid for the Bitcoin. Now, when we subtract the realized value from the market value, we get the unrealized profit or loss, which is basically how much money Bitcoin holders would make or lose if they sold everything today. So how do we use the N UPL to identify market tops and bottoms? Well, the real magic of this indicator is that it maps out investors’ psychology throughout an entire market cycle.

And that’s where these color coded zones come in. The green zone shows capitulation if it’s below 0%. This is where Bitcoin is deeply undervalued. Now, most investors are holding losses at this point. Fear is at its peak. And historically, buying here has produced the highest returns by when others are fearful. The yellow, the orange zones is like hope or better. It’s usually 25 to 50%. And this is the transition phase. This is where investors are moving from fear and starting to go into optimism. And this is often when we see the early stages of the bull market starting to form.

Now, the red zone is euphoria, that’s greed, it’s about 75%. And this is the danger zone. When N UPL enters this red band, it means most Bitcoin holders are sitting on massive unrealized gains. And when everyone is in profit, who’s left to buy, right? So we want to buy when others are fearful, and we want to sell when others are greedy. So where are we today? Well, right now, N UPL is rising, but it’s still below the critical red zone. So this suggests that Bitcoin has some momentum, we’re on the upward trend, but we’re not anywhere near a full blown euphoria just yet.

However, the moment we start creeping into that red zone is when we start to get a little bit cautious because every single time it signaled a major market peak. So here’s how I use N UPL. If we’re in the green zone, I’m continuing to buy aggressively on a regular basis. If we’re in the yellow or the orange zone, I’m still adding, maybe I might add a little bit slower than normal. If we enter the red zone, then I’m really starting to look at all the other indicators to see if we’re getting close to the top.

All right, indicator number three is the pie cycle top indicator. You’ve probably heard about this one. It’s one of the more famous ones. Here’s the thing. What if I told you there’s a simple moving average trick that’s predicted Bitcoin’s biggest market tops within just a couple of days? Well, sounds too good to be true, right? But that’s exactly what the pie cycle top indicator has done over three straight Bitcoin bull runs. And the way it works, it’s super simple, right? It’s almost almost feels like a cheat code. And here’s how the pie cycle works.

The indicator is based on two key moving averages, the 111 day moving average, which is the orange line on the chart. And this follows Bitcoin’s short term price trend. When Bitcoin’s price is skyrocketing, this line moves up quickly. And then there’s the 350 day moving average times two, that’s the green line. Now instead of just the regular 350 day moving average, this takes that value and doubles it. It smooths out longer term trends and gives us a clear benchmark for when Bitcoin is running too hot. Now the key signal is when these two lines cross.

So here’s the crazy part. Every time the 111 DMA, the orange line crosses above the 350 DMA times two, the green, it’s lined up with Bitcoin cycle top almost perfectly. In all three major cycles, the pie cycle top indicator flashed within just a few days of Bitcoin’s all time high. I mean, that’s a pretty insane track record, especially for a tool that doesn’t really rely on any sentiment. It doesn’t rely on any on chain data, macro trends, just simple price action. Okay, so where are we now? So what what is this indicator telling us? Well, as of today, well, the 111 DMA is climbing, but hasn’t yet crossed the 350 DMA times two.

So this means that we’re still in a bear market, right? But if we start approaching the crossover, that’s going to be our first major warning sign that Bitcoin’s rally might be nearing exhaustion. Now, these are moving targets. It’s not like it’s just starting to near it, because most of them are moving at the same time. So just understand that. But even if it does cross, it doesn’t mean we crash immediately. But in the past couple cycles, and then we were within weeks of the top. Okay, so how do I personally use this simple, same as the other ones, once it starts kind of flashing top signs, then I want to start looking at the other indicators, there’s another 10 or 15 that I think are really important.

And I’ll start looking at those. And I might start to slow down some of my buying. Now again, I want to make this super clear, just because something worked in the past doesn’t guarantee it’s going to be perfect forever. All right, we have a completely different market today, we have Bitcoin ETFs, we have institutional money, they’ve all started entering the space, and we could see a completely different cycle dynamic. I’m going to talk more about that. And I’m gonna show you some data and some numbers around that more towards the end.

But until it stops working, this is one of the simplest, most accurate ways that we can detect when Bitcoin is overheating. Alright, now indicator number four, this is the fuel method. Now we’ve talked about investor behavior, we talked about realized profits, we talked about price cycles. But what about the one group that has to sell no matter what I’m talking about Bitcoin miners. Now most miners don’t have the luxury of just holding forever, right? They have massive fixed costs, they have to pay for electricity, hardware operators. And that means they’re always selling some of their Bitcoin to stay in business.

Now, some of this has changed over the years, as we’ve seen more publicly traded miners coming into the space, and they’ve started to accumulate more Bitcoin on their balance sheets. So this indicator may not be quite as strong as it used to be, but it’s still in the top five. Alright, so let’s dig into this fuel method indicator. And basically, it tracks minor revenue relative to historical norms. And like I said, it’s been one of the best metrics for spotting when Bitcoin is overbought or underpriced. So here’s exactly how it works.

The fuel method measures how much Bitcoin miners are earning today, compared to the average earnings over the past year. And it’s calculated like this daily issuance value, which is the newly mined Bitcoin in US dollar terms, every day, new Bitcoin is mine, and it enters the market. So the metric looks at how much that new supply is worth in dollar terms, 365 day moving average of the issuance value. So instead of just looking at today’s minor revenue, we compare it to the last year’s averages. And so this helps smooth out the short term fluctuations.

And it gives us a much clearer picture of whether miners revenue are unusually high or low. And then we divided the daily issuance value by the 365 day average, we get the pure multiple. And this simple ratio tells us when Bitcoin might be overheating, or if it’s undervalued. Now the best part, the syndicator has nailed every major Bitcoin cycle top and bottom by showing when minor revenue is too extreme relative to history. The red zone is the market peaks. That’s that’s the warning zone. When the pure multiple enters the red zone, it means minor revenues are abnormally high levels.

Now historically, this is coincided with Bitcoin’s major bull market peaks. Because when miners are making record profits, they’re usually selling a lot. This adds a lot of supply to the market. And that often marks the top of the market. The green zone is the generational buying opportunities. So on the low, this means that many miners are struggling, some are capitulating, and the market is likely at a bottom. So every time Bitcoin’s entered this zone, we saw in 2012, 2015, 2018, 2020, it was insane by an opportunity before the next bull run started.

So what’s the fuel method saying right now? Well, right now it’s climbing, but we’re not yet in the red zone. This means miners are making increasing profits, which is expected in a bull run, but we’re not at an extreme overheated levels yet. However, once we see this indicator push into the red, that’s a warning sign. It means minor selling pressure could soon outweigh demand, leading to a market cool down or even a cycle top. So how do I use this? Well, just like the other ones, right? We’ve covered a lot of indicators.

The, the pool method basically works best in combination with other tools, right? So we’ve seen the MVRV shows us the value, the profits that investors have, the NUPL, we’ve seen the pie cycle top, all of them, if they’re flashing warning signs at the same time, then we want to be looking at this cycle as well, or this indicator as well, which is the pool method, which tells us a different category altogether. Now, the last one I want to show is a little bit less scientific, but still rather accurate. And that is indicator number five, which is the Bitcoin rainbow chart.

Alright, so like I said, it’s a little bit different. It’s not really a serious valuation tool. It’s kind of like a part mean, but it’s the it’s the rainbow chart. And it’s basically a logarithmic growth curve that helps us visualize Bitcoin’s long term price trajectory and its market cycles. And while it’s not based on on chain data like MVRV, it has historically done an impressive job of identifying when Bitcoin is overheated or undervalued. So here’s how the Bitcoin rainbow chart works. Unlike most technical indicators, this chart doesn’t use moving averages doesn’t use market sentiment.

Instead, it’s based on a logarithmic regression model, which smooths out Bitcoin’s price history, and it projects potential future valuation bands. So every color in the rainbow band represents a different phase of the market, ranging from deep value to outright mania, blue and green zones, those are strong accumulation periods. When Bitcoin’s price is in the blue or the green bands history shows these are prime accumulation zones. This is when the market sentiment is at its worst. But that’s when the smart money comes in yellow and orange zones. That’s like mid cycle growth.

That’s a holding phase. This is where the transition zone happens and Bitcoin starts to gain momentum. We move into the yellow and the orange bands, where long term holders typically sit tight and they ride the trend. The red zone is maximum bubble territory. And this is where things start getting interesting. When Bitcoin enters the red zone, the chart is essentially screaming, take profits for some. We’ll get back to that. Now, historically, every single Bitcoin cycle peak has occurred when we reached or exceeded this band. So is the Bitcoin rainbow chart accurate? Well, let’s be real.

Like I said, this is a meme chart. It’s not based on blockchain activity, minor data, investor psychology. But it’s remained remarkably consistent across multiple Bitcoin cycles. And because of that, many investors still watch it. So that being said, Bitcoin’s evolving, right with ETFs, sovereign wealth fund adoption, corporate treasuries now in play, the way Bitcoin moves through cycles could completely change. Now, the rainbow chart might not always work as well as it has in the past. But for now, it remains a simple visual way to gauge where we are in the market cycle.

So what is the rainbow chart telling us today? Well, right now, it shows that Bitcoin is sitting in the upper middle bands, which suggests that we’re in a strong bull market, but nowhere near full blown euphoria. So if we do push into the red zone, that’s when history suggests that we might be nearing a market peak. But as always, we need to combine this with all the other indicators that we’ve looked at. Alright, so we’ve broken down five of the most powerful indicators for spotting Bitcoin cycle tops. Let’s just quickly recap them.

So we can see what we’ve learned. And most importantly, how we can use this information for smarter moves. So we looked at the MVRV score, which shows when Bitcoin’s market value is extremely overextended relative to its fair value. And historically, when it enters the red zone, we’ve been near cycle peaks, we looked at the nupl, which tracks investor sentiment based on whether holders are sitting on big profits or losses. And when it hits euphoria green levels, the market’s usually an extreme risk with the pie cycle top indicator, which is a simple but effective moving average crossover that’s nailed previous market tops within just a few days.

So when we see that flash, we want to start paying attention look at the pure multiple, which measures minor revenue relative to historical norms. And if it enters the red zone, it means miners are earning way more than usual often signaling a market top. And then we looked at the Bitcoin rainbow chart. Again, it’s sort of like a meme chart, but it’s been pretty accurate with picking Bitcoin tops and bottoms. But here’s the key takeaway. No single indicator is perfect on its own, right? If we just relied on one, we’d either be selling too early or we’d be holding way too long.

But when multiple indicators start flashing warning signals at the same time, that’s when we have the best shot at making the right decision. So here’s what I personally do. If these indicators are in normal ranges, I stay in heavy accumulation mode aggressively adding and buying on nadips. If we start seeing one or two indicators heating up, I take note, I don’t panic. I start looking at all the other indicators because market tops take a long time to form. But I look at the other indicators and see what colors they’re at.

If they’re flashing red, I may start to slow down some of my buys, but I don’t sell because Bitcoin is a long term game for me. And here’s why one because we never know exactly when the top will be. So in previous cycles, we’ve seen these indicators flash top warnings, but then Bitcoin kept running for weeks or even months before it actually peaked out. Now, these tools tell us when Bitcoin is expensive, but they don’t give us the exact day or the week of the top. So if you sell too early, it means you could miss out on massive potential gains on the back end.

Number two is because of taxes. Imagine handing 30 to 50% of your gains straight back to the government because you thought that the top was in only to watch Bitcoin keep climbing. No, thanks. I’m not giving away half my wealth when I don’t need to. Number three, because the real game is to accumulate assets, not sell them. Look, wealth isn’t built by selling. It’s built by owning assets that appreciate overtime. If I need liquidity, then I don’t sell I can just use Bitcoin as collateral for loans. That way I keep my Bitcoin, I avoid taxes, and I still get access to the cash if I need it.

Now, if you want to deep dive on how to use Bitcoin back loans instead of selling, let me know down in the comments down below. I can do a full breakdown in another video. Now, a very important point. This cycle is not like previous ones. Institutions, ETF, sovereign buyers, corporate adoption, like unlike past cycles, when the market was driven mostly by retail speculation, we now have massive players stepping in. So the ETFs, the sovereigns, the corporations, the micro strategies, right? These guys aren’t just flipping Bitcoin for short term games. They’re soaking up supply and locking it away forever, right? So consider these numbers.

It’s been about 42 weeks since the fourth Bitcoin halving. And since then, micro strategy alone has acquired 257,000 Bitcoin, BlackRock, their Bitcoin ETF has acquired 311,000 Bitcoin, several other companies like MetaPlanet, similar, some mining pubcos, they’ve acquired a bunch of Bitcoin as well. We’ve seen Mara acquired 28,000 Bitcoin since the halving riots acquired 8,000 Bitcoin since the halving. We’ve seen nation states like the UAE rumored to have been buying 400,000 Bitcoin. But on the supply side, we’ve only had 135,000 newly mined Bitcoin. So these institutions are soaking up an enormous supply from the weekends, and going to the deep, dark, cold storage of these funds and institutions where it may never move from again.

And because of that, it’s possible that these indicators might not signal a sharp correction like the previous cycles. Instead, we could see a longer, more extended top, we could get a you know, slower distribution phase instead of this immediate blow off top. And that’s why I’m watching these indicators closely in real time. And I’m adjusting as things unfold. Now the biggest mistake you can make is trying to perfectly time the top, no one can call the exact peak in the cycle, it only becomes obvious in hindsight when we’re looking backwards on it.

So that’s why the move is to use these indicators to inform your decision making, not to gamble on catching the exact top, but to stack wisely, avoid selling and use Bitcoin back strategies to maximize your wealth. Now, most people don’t have a plan. They ride the hype up, they panic on the way down. And when the next bull cycle starts, they’re sitting on the sidelines wishing they had played it smarter. But you’re not like most people. You’re here because you want the edge. You want to make data driven decisions, not emotional ones.

So I have a bunch of other indicators I look at and I put together a report for the top 10 Bitcoin indicators as a cheat sheet, including five additional advanced metrics that we didn’t have time to cover on this video, one of which I call the everything indicators, a single signal that combines multiple metrics into one easy to read score. If you want that, there’s a link down below, you can get it for free, just so you can stay on top of this. And if you want to know how much I believe Bitcoin is worth in 2030 2040 and 2050.

You might want to watch this video right here. And drop a comment below. Let me know which of these five indicators do you trust the most? Let me know what you think and I’ll be replying to as many as I can. And that’s what I got. All right, to your success. I’m out. [tr:trw].

See more of Mark Moss on their Public Channel and the MPN Mark Moss channel.