➡ The prices of gold and silver have been falling since the start of the war, causing frustration among investors. Despite this, the long-term outlook for these precious metals remains positive due to ongoing global financial risks and monetary policies. The war’s impact on oil prices and potential disruptions to the food supply could also influence gold and silver prices. However, it’s important to remember that these metals were already on a trajectory before the war and will likely continue on this path regardless of the conflict’s duration.
➡ The text discusses the potential impact of ongoing conflicts on the global economy, particularly focusing on the Iran war. It suggests that if the situation escalates, it could trigger a debt crisis and disrupt manufacturing and supply chains. The text also mentions the possibility of countries stockpiling gold and silver as a safety measure. Lastly, it predicts that silver might perform best in the next six months due to various factors including inflation and labor shortages.
➡ The text discusses the potential for a decrease in demand for U.S. Treasuries and an increase in demand for gold and silver due to global economic uncertainties. It suggests that countries like Iran may not invest in U.S. Treasuries due to political tensions, and that the demand for silver could increase due to supply issues and its use in manufacturing. The text also questions the reasons behind the U.S.’s conflict with Iran and mentions the lifting of some oil sanctions on Russia.
➡ The text discusses the potential impacts of a war and the closure of straits on oil prices, which could skyrocket and become unaffordable. It also touches on the volatility of oil prices and the possibility of higher bond yields on US Treasuries. The conversation then shifts to interest rates, with speculation that Trump will push for lower rates, which could affect gold and silver prices. The text ends with a discussion on the possibility of a recession, with the current economic conditions potentially indicating the start of one.
➡ The article discusses the potential economic downturn and its impact on gold and silver markets. The author, Chris, runs a YouTube channel, Arcadia Economics, where he shares daily updates on these markets. He also provides written content on his sub stack. The article ends with a call to action for viewers to subscribe to his channel and stay updated on market trends.

We see gold and silver that’s going down. So I wonder if you give us an update on the gold and silver market and your thoughts on that. Sure. Been down quite a bit since the war began. You have that Sunday night open silver was over $96 and then we’ve seen this sell off pretty consistently since then. And we can dig into why the metals are lower, why they haven’t responded which I know has a lot of people frustrated. And now you have a war and $110 Brent crude. Also what’s really concerning is hearing of things like fertilizer not making it through the straight of Hormuz.

Well hello there my friends. Chris Marcus here with you for Arcade Economics. Hope you had a good week. Obviously the prices of gold and silver are down quite a bit. Although while we might not be able to control that, I was invited onto Alexander Horat’s Great Freedom America channel where we talked about the sell off things that are going on behind the sell off, why it might be happening especially at a time where we’re seeing an Iran war really get to, I mean it seems the highest alert I can remember since I’ve been alive. So concerning what’s happening out there.

But anyway, hopefully this one will help. Fun conversation. Alexander is a great host and with that said, here we go. Hello everyone, this is the Free American Press with your host Alexander Horat. And today we’re joined by a special guest, Chris Marcus. He is the founder of Arcadia Economics and a well known voice in the precious metal space. Focused on silver dynamics, monetary policy and global financial risks, he closely tracks physical supply trends, exchange activity and geopolitical development shaping gold and silver prices. Hello Chris, thank you for coming back on the show. Alexander, it’s pleasure to see you as always and certainly a bit happening out there I guess you could say so thanks for having me and hope everyone watching at home is doing well too.

Heavy stuff depending on which day you look, but hopefully we can at least maybe make some sense out of what’s happening, especially with the medals in rather chaotic time. Definitely true. There’s been a lot of huge things that have happened since we last talked, namely the Iran war which is pretty huge. What’s going on? Oil prices have surged to new highs for sure. We saw the whole Venezuela thing happen as well, among a lot of other things that have happened in the gold and silver market. So I guess we should get to gold and silver first because that’s your specialty.

We see gold and silver that’s going down slightly, slightly down a little bit. Today, but still at very high levels. So I wonder if you give us an update on the gold and silver market and your thoughts on that. Sure. I like how you put it slightly. I’m sure there’s some people who would call today more than slight, although in the grand scheme of things, you know, gold’s down 100 bucks isn’t the biggest move now. Been down quite a bit since the war began. It was the Sunday night, I think the Sunday night was either February 28th or it might have been March 1st.

But you have that Sunday night open silver was over $96. Gold, forget the exact level, was a couple hundred bucks higher. And then we’ve seen this sell off pretty consistently since then. Even spiked on the open, then came down even within hours. And so silver from 96 and it was believe under 77 right before we started recording here. Gold, gold quite a bit lower too. Which one hand and we can dig into why the metals are lower, why they haven’t responded, which I know has a lot of people frustrated. Certainly like you point out though, a lot higher than this time last year.

So if you’re upset with today’s silver price, remember around 30 bucks last year dropped below 30 when the reciprocal tariffs came out. It I think that was April 2nd. So quite a volatile ride. It’s been certainly on the lower side. Now that said, I don’t think over a longer term that the Iran war is going to be something that A, deviates from a gold and silver rally or B, I mean, I think it can accelerate the timeline yet. In my opinion, gold and silver are going to do what gold and silver were already on course to do whether the Iran war ends tomorrow or five years from now.

I mean the US Debt was already absurd. I mean it’s already past a point of no return. The Federal Reserve and by the way, we got, we’re recording on Wednesday. We got the latest PPI report this morning, which surged and that’s following weekly really weak labor report a couple of weeks ago. So what does the Fed do now? I have this guy, Jim Willey who comes on my show. We have this great clip of him. He used to say basically the Fed needs rate cuts and rate hikes. If you can do that, then you’re going to be good to go.

We’ve heard Kevin Warsh still, according to Polymarket, looks on track to be the next Fed chairman. Maybe there’s an issue with his confirmation. I, I’m guessing at some point Trump gets someone in there who is going to lower interest rates. Although what do you do when oil surges to 109? And that, that inflation report that came out this morning, that’s tracking what happened in February. So the whole oil from the 60 to $70 range, that’s where it was in February when this data was recorded. It was already high. And now you have a war and $110 Brent crude.

Also what’s really concerning is hearing of things like fertilizer not making it through the straight of Hormuz, especially when not much of a farmer myself. But I hear this is planting season. So obviously how does that. And higher oil, you’re going to see a lot higher prices and a lot bigger inflation numbers in the months ahead, let alone that. I think we’re at a very critical point here where you know, sometimes, you know, like you see governments, well if we still 100 billion instead of 50 billion, you know, life carries on. But we’re at a critical point here where if this not even escalates further but just if this straight stays closed and you have this disruption much longer.

I mean we were already in a bit of a fragile position and this could have some devastating effects. I don’t think we need to go much farther down this path. And when you hear food supply being at least facing a risk like that, I believe it was David Sachs the part of the White House was talking about how forget whether it was Iran or the other side targeting desalinization plants in the Mideast. I mean these are things that if they happen, you don’t just write off or raise taxes or have the Fed print things away. I mean these are humanity issues that we’re facing here, which is why it’s quite alarming what’s happening.

And while gold and silver have not responded to that yet, I would not be too concerned about the longer term trajectory of gold and silver based on what we’ve seen the past week. Again you’re people can remember 2008, gold went from 1000 to 700 bucks before it went to 1900. A couple years later silver went from 21 to 9 while there was a physical shortage and hit 49 a couple years later. So the same thing when Covid hit in 2020, silver going down to 12 bucks. A few months later it got up to 29. And we can debate, I know there’s a lot of people are upset with the manipulation that does occur in the metals.

Could factor that in here. I think there’s also at least in the beginning, a lot of uncertainty where seemed like they were implying this was Going to be like a two or three day thing and then like so nobody knows what’s going on. I don’t know that market participants know. How do you balance what’s happening with the war silver and then the fact that you’ve had physical supply issues in silver market? I mean the business school textbook doesn’t give you the formula to plug this in and you get the exact answer. So I think it’s a time where if you can take a step back and remember the things that led the prices to where they were before any of this happened and think even if you need to make a short term decision, I continue to find that when I think, all right, 10 years from now, what do I think this most likely looks like? Reflect on that for a bit and then I think a lot of the answers to other questions become easier.

But hopefully that’s a good overview of how things are looking today. Yeah, definitely. So like you said, they were saying this Iran war was only going to last a few weeks, but if it continues to go on for months or even years, how do you think, do you think there will be any effect on the gold and silver market because of that or do you think they’re won’t be in any effect? I mean, certainly there will be an effect. I mean, I saw someone ask Scott Besson is there any financial cost to the war where you would say to Trump that hey, well you know, at this price we, we can’t afford this.

And he just said no, so you could accelerate things. I’m a big fan of Luke Groman and listened to. He does his weekly, it’s a newsletter, but he also does an audio version. Normally I listen to the audio version each week on Friday when he puts it out. I think I’ve listened to last week’s three or four times because he was mentioning how basically if this street doesn’t get reopened soon, that now we’re really looking at triggering a debt crisis which you can say is overdue, you could say is inevitable. That’s the type of thing that we’re looking at here.

You get a couple more rounds of US Israel 1 ups, Iran comes back with their response again. Can I say that 100% conclusively? No. I mean you’re talking about a lot of unknowns. But I also don’t think that’s a big leap when we’re looking at things being blown up that don’t get repaired quickly. We’re already having enough trouble getting manufacturing back to the US as it was because of the supply issues. And we have strategic minerals gone wild. China one day announces their stockpiling. Theirs US Comes back, well, we’re stockpiling, too. And you have these issues with rare earths where there were already problems getting what we need.

Now you add this on. Does not. Not an ideal setup. Then if you add whether it’s oil, fertilizer, salinization plants, I’ll put it like this. I can’t imagine. And we’ve seen the reports that Trump reached out to Putin to help resolve this man. I can’t imagine that he wanted to make that phone call. And I think that is some indication of. I think the US Is quite concerned. I think they should be quite concerned. It also seems to me, again, it’s another thing that’s difficult these days now that we’re in the AI Era. I scroll through Twitter, I see a lot of stuff.

I’m realizing far more than I might have guessed is being made by some guy in his underwear in his basement with an AI program. Yet between what I see and hear and trying to be careful filtering, it sure looks like a lot of missiles are going into Israel right now and doing a lot of damage. Maybe that’s all fake AI I don’t think it’s all fake. And I don’t get the feeling that Iran feels like we have no options here. Again, this is not my field of expertise, but at least as I’m reading and trying to figure out what’s going on here, seems to me that they do realize they do hold leverage.

I think it was David Sachs again from the White House who described their dead, dead man switch, where it’s like, if you’re gonna push them into a corner, they’re showing what they’re doing. Things are blowing up. Energy facilities, tankers, natural gas facilities are getting blown up. So when a debate what is or isn’t actually happening, but I mean, there’s, this is very precarious point. And I think that it seems to me that Iran knows that they hold leverage. Whether. And I, I don’t think either of these escalatory outcomes are good for just about anyone on the planet.

But again, that’s why how that plays out is going to be pretty important. So to, to answer your question, will that affect gold and silver? Well, if the, if the straits shut down for two months and things just get insane, yeah, I would imagine there’s, let me put it like this. There’s certainly a PA path where things escalate here and maybe gold is going to numbers that you probably based on today’s pricing wouldn’t guess. I mean, we’re in unchartered territory in a very, what seems to me, I’m not trying to get people more alarmed, although I, I, I’m, I’m alarmed based on what I’m seeing.

Yeah, it’s definitely some pretty scary times we’re living in. One thing that I’ve seen a lot of my guests talk about who came on the show is apparently China stockpiling huge amounts of silver. So you think of this Iran war becomes a wider war with more powers arrayed in the fighting. Do you think, you know, other countries are going to start stockpiling gold and silver, you know, as kind of their safety net? I mean, I think that began even before this war started. Again, it has been interesting that we’ve seen Russia and China seemingly side with Iran, which is perhaps what you would expect.

And interesting how it looks like Trump asked some of the NATO allies for support in reopening the straight and they’re like, so I get the feeling that people are becoming aware this is a very dangerous situation. And yeah, that’s why there’s, there’s so much attention on this right now, because how figure out how this plays out and that’ll tell you a lot. But I mean there is to me a very real path that if you don’t get it resolved. And I think the thing is, I think that they have to realize that where, although at least so far I’ve not acted on it.

And I guess what concerns me is that it’s like, all right, if Israel’s now getting fed anywhere near the number of missiles that it appears to me Iran and Israel don’t have a track record of saying like, maybe we should de escalate. You know, they did this but for the good of this and that. Well, well, look past it doesn’t usually go like that. So you have a lot of parties with tempers that seem extremely upset right now and gonna be watching to see how that unfolds. Yeah, we’ll definitely see. I don’t think, I don’t know.

It doesn’t look like Iran or Israel’s got a back down anytime soon, just from everything that I’ve seen so far. But you never know. This work could be over in a day. Could definitely be over. We never know. But for my next question, one thing I was thinking about is what metal do you think is going to be be performing the best in the next six months? Say, is it going to be gold, silver, platinum? Like what’s kind of your best Bet next six months. I would say perhaps the one that has the chance to do the best in the next six months.

I, I take silver on that one. And the reason is that I think, I think gold is for a variety of reasons which we can dig into. You have debt, you have the fact that they want to reshore manufacturing, all these things. We have labor shortages for skilled trade. So all these things are going to necessitate inflation, which means if you’re sitting there holding US Treasuries, you’re about to lose even more value. Where is money going to go after it goes out of Treasuries? Well, to a variety of places, but including gold. Silver too. But what we’ve seen of central banks responding with gold, China responding with gold, a lot of people responding with gold.

I, I see gold as the higher safety certainty play where there. I don’t think, I don’t think there are often absolutes in financial markets. But it’s like when I sit there and think 10 years from now, could the gold price be lower than it is today? Given the construction of the world, I guess anything’s possible. But to me that’s a pretty high probability, you know, plus you have the chance that debt keeps going up. Well, how can you knock off some of the data? I mean again, you could either have the Fed monetize more of it, which would generally have a positive impact on gold, or I do think it’s beyond just a tail risk that we wake up one day and there’s some sort of.

All right, we had to put gold at 10, 20, 50, whatever number, thousand because we mark it up there. Then the Fed, basically the Fed credits the US treasury and you can pay down some of the debt. I haven’t been able to figure out another way that you can actually pay down the debt instead of. Aside from doing that, we’ve also had started with Cynthia Loomis, but you’ve heard when it was originally like a year or two ago, the strategic Bitcoin Fund. But they’ve already in there’s legislation showing proposals. They’ve talked about taking the Fed certificates that are marked at 4222 to the current market price, which is interesting because if that were to happen, the higher the gold price goes, that means the more the deposit into the treasury would be.

And we did hear Scott Besson say last year that the rise of good gold price has been good for the US he didn’t say exactly why, but that could be one reason. So perhaps the gold price could go up or if Just marking to the current price is good. But so that would be scenario A. A more extreme scenario B is if you pick, all right, 20,000, 40, whatever the number is to mark down debt. I can’t. Can I guarantee that? Of course not. But I mean in terms of that used to be a conspiracy, you know, fraction of a percent chance, I don’t think it’s a 1 or 2% probability anymore.

You know, you could say are we talking about 2 versus 10 or maybe more? I think that’s open for debate but it’s beyond a minor tail risk. So you have the extreme possibilities yet. Like is the rest of the world gonna be in a rush to. Do you think Iran’s going to be buying U S Treasuries? Do you think they’re going to wake up there this morning and be like oh, you know, well we should diversify out of here, let’s get some treasuries. I mean based on what’s happening, is there going to be an increased demand for treasuries? Although I saw that there was an increased supply of Treasuries I guess to get the exact numbers.

But the reading an article earlier this week showing that the budget deficits didn’t go well in the last month or quarter or whatever it was, you can have people still in a rush, new incremental demand, it doesn’t, doesn’t look good. And then again you’ve already seen money going into gold. So to me when you add all that together plus the reassuring de dollarization, the fact that if they really didn’t like the way the US was using the dollar before, can’t imagine her feeling better now. So to me, gold over the next 10 years, I don’t know.

I mean we are near an all time high. So could it go lower? I suppose that’s possible. But 10 years from now, with all the inflation and debt and printing that’s going to happen by then I can’t sit here and tell you that it’s 100% but at least I’ve been making a bet predicated on that. So that seems like the higher probability. Safer Again, safer being a relative term. How many? But, but leaving money in dollars isn’t too safe. I can’t give you any hundred percent. Here’s the safe way to go. But one relative to another Treasury.

I feel safer in gold than in treasuries even with gold near an all time high price, Although I would say you could call gold perhaps safer than silver where, you know, if that’s a little bit of a roller coaster of events that are possible that we just described for gold. To me, silver goes back to the fact that we finally hit supply issues. Alexander, I don’t know how long have you and I’ve been, how many years we’ve been talking about. I mean it was five or six years ago. Well, the deficit in this silver here. Okay, now fast forward.

We, we finally had that matter. We had deficits back in 2022 when I remember the silver price going back down to 18 bucks. Nobody cared. But finally you had an issue in India which led to an issue in London which led to silver coming from the US and China over to London to address London’s issue, which led to an issue in China where now they, I mean they have 20, they just dipped under 20 million ounces backing the combined Chinese exchange inventories in the industrial center of silver products that use silver in their manufacturing. To put that in context, the LBMA ran into an issue when their free float got down to 140 million ounces.

So doesn’t seem like a lot of silver in China seeing metal leave the comex now because of all the metal that went in there last year. There’s still a lot historically, although the, it’s like 1 to 4 million ounces coming out each day has not stopped and slowed down. Perhaps most importantly, we still have the elevated spread in China and also India, which I think there’s your key sign that this was not just speculators on the comex or some people thinking, well maybe Trump’s going to get his guy to cut rates. I mean the fact that you saw that spread, plus I have one mining company executive, he received phone calls from groups in both China and India back at the end of the year trying to buy lock in a deal to buy his production at an eight to ten dollar premium.

Those were solar panel manufacturers. So that spread has not gone away. And with the inventories continuing to dwindle, to me there’s still a very real possibility that we get something that makes what happened last October in the silver market look like the appetizer. And in fact I think why did silver, you know, Basically it took 45 years to get to 50 bucks again and then it went, it doubled and a half in the following two months. Why did that happen? Well, I remember thinking as we kept seeing the price go up a couple bucks a day and then the spread wide and I’m like, are we getting close to the point where the people of silver investors have talked about for years, do you get Apple or Samsung Just like, hey, we don’t have it for whatever you need, we don’t have it.

And then if that occurred, would you expect, well, for companies that, you know, if your silver cost goes up a bit, you know, another five or ten bucks, but you have a 500 million dollar billion dollar manufacturing plant where it’s like this thing gets shut down unless we pay a little more for the silver. Do you start to get groups say just all right, five dollar premium, whatever, just give it to me, I’ll take it and essentially front running each other. And I remember at one point I’m like, well I think we’ve already seen that the, the silver mining executive, he was describing it.

And rather than it being, do we reach a point where groups start saying, hey, I’m just taking whatever we can get. I think that’s what was happening from 50 to $121. Yeah, and I think you made a good point because like you said, oh, Iran’s not going to buy U.S. treasuries because they would probably, the U.S. would probably seize their assets if they did that. Like I, then they seize Russian assets, you know, with the whole Ukrainian war. So you think just there’s, like you said, there’s just going to be less and less countries just deciding not to buy US Treasuries anymore because of United States action like this? I mean on one hand, yes.

I mean on another hand, while it’s horrifying to see what’s happening, it’s also not new. I find it intriguing where as I’ve tried to like what specifically is the reason that the US just went to war with Iran? Which it’s hard, hard to find the answer you hear. Well, we were convinced they had nukes and we’re going to use them. And for 47 years this threat has existed. Well, okay, one hand, if it’s existed for 47 years, then that’s a long time it hasn’t happened. So I don’t know. And we’ve heard groups talking about, oh they’re this close for that.

That’s been going back to the 90s. I’ve seen Netanyahu saying, oh they’re, they’re a week away. I also remember a war going into Iraq where we knew that where they said there were weapons of mass destruction turned out there weren’t. And we found out later that they knew full well that there weren’t and went and lied about it. And I mean I, I grateful for the country I live in, but I mean I’m being objective is if you if you knew about it, lied about it, killed a lot of people. Isn’t that murder? And there was actually.

I forget what his title was. There was a gentleman that resigned. Sorry about that. I forget it was one of the military groups. There’s someone who just resigned and left quite a resignation letter. Oh yeah, here we go. Top Trump national security official resigns, wrote a letter saying he did not feel that there was any threat from Iran right now. So at least according to this guy who seemingly put himself at risk. I don’t know if he loses his I heard someone say that he would not get his pension. Sure. If you stand up and say something like that that’s not great for military career.

But he’s essentially saying that we’re looking at a situation where if you’re, if the government is going to say there was a nuclear threat or we were about to be attacked. This guy’s calling BS which unless he’s lying would kind of make it a little bit similar to what we saw with Iraq. So you know, are there new chapters of it happening? Yeah. Is there some degree to which parts of it aren’t surprising and are familiar? Yes. And I’ll also point out that when the US sanctioned Russia back in 2022, it’s like to the month after that that’s when the central bank started setting records for how much gold they were buying.

Yeah. So it’s not like maybe I mean it was pretty clear cause and effect. Here’s the other thing. Did Alexander, did you catch this that in the past couple of days Trump lifted some of those oil sanctions on Russia. Oh really? Wow. So these sanctions that were placed when they went into Ukraine that significant enough that everything that’s happened since then, the US lifted some of those which I can’t imagine was like you know they’re kind of thing that they would be looking forward to doing. That seems like a bit of a hey we really need some help here type statement.

So that’s a big deal. Now they’re asking for China’s help to open the straits. Wasn’t China the terrorists economically and the the problem wall. It’s like you’re asking the people the the groups or countries that you call your enemy to help you out. Is doesn’t I saw it reported that I’m not I believe I may have heard Trump actually say this. I want to be careful and accurate. I not sure I think he did but it’s all reported. They didn’t expect the straight to be closed. They didn’t plan for that. Yeah so again, hey, I’m not saying I know how to go launch war, take care of it, or that these are easy decisions, but if that’s accurate, that that was not expected or prepared for, you know, I’m not trying to be critical, but on some level, then there’s a problem with the whole, the whole operation, if that.

Because that’s an incredibly serious risk. It happened. And if that was not expected, then it’s like, all right, well, if you didn’t expect that one, let’s maybe not the time to like, say who’s right or wrong, but be careful before you do something else. Yeah. Because if you’re not expecting them to do that, if you do take another action and you’re not expecting them to blow more things up or keep it shut longer, that that is a cost that to me I don’t think the world can afford. I agree with you. And I wanted to ask you a question about this.

So we’ve seen oil. Oil’s definitely been going up quite a bit, but it’s been pretty volatile. Like, there’s been some big ups and some big downs. But if this war continues to go on and the straits are closed, how high do you think we could see oil go? And like three months from now? I mean, I’ll, I’ll say this is simply a useless guess. I mean, I heard some of the Iranian officials talked about 150, 200 bucks. I mean, it’s kind of like saying if you get to an overt shortage in silver, where does the price go? I mean, then you’re, you’re talking then about panic conditions where it’s like, I, I don’t know, a couple, couple hundred bucks does go to 3, $400 if thing gets shut.

I don’t know. But I guess I think you already have some big issues at $100 oil. So, I mean, I would say that perhaps would be more useful for me to assert is that if it’s closed three or four months from now, you’re at, you’re likely at a price of oil that the world and humanity cannot afford. Yeah, yeah. One thing I want to talk about as well is actually going to just add one other thing to that. Especially if you still have this thing closed another three or four months from now. Yeah, you have the oil price, but whatever else has taken place, I’m sure this is close.

Three or four months from now. I’m guessing it’s not like they’re like, all right, well, we’ll put down the guns and just, you know, like Let it stop. But probably a lot of other things that have happened and piled onto this foils at, let’s say, let’s say oil doesn’t mean move further. Let’s just say oil is still over 100 bucks three or four months from now. What’s. What, what, what’s the bond yield on the US Treasuries? I’ll get it. I would be concerned that it would be a lot higher than it is today. Yeah, that’s, that’s for sure.

So I wanted to switch gears a little bit and go back to interest rates. So you mentioned how Trump’s wanting getting a new person for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. So Trump’s got to be in office for a while longer. Like, how low do you think interest rates will go and say, a year with his new pick in there? Well, I mean, that’s a fascinating one because everything that’s happened in the past two and a half weeks has really changed that. Trump said he wanted interest rates 1% or lower. I think regardless of people’s feelings, pro or against Trump, it me the one thing we can agree on is that when he decides what he wants, he’s aggressive, sort of whatever word you want to use about going to get it.

So, I mean, we’ve seen the lawsuit against the Fed. He called Powell a loser, nincompoop or whatever. I mean, it. At least to me, it, it seemed like he was going to keep doing stuff until he found a way to get the guy out. You can. And leave aside whether that’s right or appropriate or not yet I think one way or another, he’s going to do everything conceivable within his power to get lower interest rates. Perhaps even more significant than that, unless the US Wants to continue to be dependent upon China and other places for resources, I don’t think they have a choice.

Like, if you, if you bring, if you want to start manufacturing back here again, prices of certain things are going to go up. And whether it’s lower interest rates or some other form of stimulus, I mean, it, it’s one of those things where it’s like certain parts of it, they are what they are. It’s, you know, and we can like, all right, that elephant’s not stomping around the room. Okay, now, he didn’t just knock over the vase with his trunk. Now, he’s not taking a. On. Everyone in the room can ignore it, but it doesn’t mean it’s not happening.

So, I mean, it’s certainly not on a governmental level going well, and that’s why I, I think at least it’s, I feel quite fortunate. I think hopefully most gold and silver investors that what at least doesn’t minimize the things that are happening. But at least while these things are happening, that gold and silver, even if they’re down today, over the last month or two, they have performed relative to where they were last year. So that at least as these things are happening and the people that turn to gold and silver to protect their savings, at least we’re in a time where we are feeling some of those benefits versus if all this stuff was happening and gold was a thousand bucks and silver was $18.

Yeah, that’s definitely true. Yeah. So definitely lowering interest rates, if they do that significantly, how do you think that’s going to affect gold and silver? Do you think that’s going to create a lot of inflation with the US Dollar or like, what’s your thoughts on those? I mean, if Trump gets his way again, that’s, it’s like there was a clearer path to that before all this happened. Because now if inflation’s already jumping and then you have 100, oil makes it a little bit harder to cut rates, although at the same time we just saw that last labor report where it was absolute disaster.

So I mean, it’s like half of the conditions were like green light cut the rates, go ahead. And at least back then, as of three weeks ago, I was thinking, gee, you know, silver’s already 80 or $90, whatever it was then, and gold is 5,000 plus if we’re, you know, have worse in here over the summer. And he’s basically telegraphing to Nick Timmeraus of the Wall Street Journal that, yeah, we’re getting ready to, I don’t know that they were going to cut rates to 1% the first day, but if he was making clear that they’re going down the rate cutting path, it’s like, gee, if you’re shifting that and still it goes over already here, what does that look like? So that would, if that does continue, indeed end up happening, you would think that would put some stunning levels of increase behind the precious metals prices.

Again. I think it’s a little harder to do though, when you have, I mean, and that’s going to be fascinating to see. Okay. If the economy, people are really struggling and the economy is starting to get worked. I mean, it’s typically when they lower interest rates or do quantitative easing, but people are wondering if we’re getting stagflation. Well, now you have oil price above 100 bucks last labor report, they were expecting, I think 52,000 jobs created. You lost 90,000 and unemployment ticked up. So do you think we’re at the beginnings of a recession? I mean, you could make the case that measured in real terms, we’ve been in a recession for years.

Certainly if you want to look at it in terms of a recession, when like people notice it and Powell isn’t going out there saying, oh, well, you know, blah, blah, blah, but the economy is strong. But when a recession as. And not, I don’t look to 2/4 of negative growth. I understand the technical definition. Some like. But if you mean something where it’s like even the White House and the Fed are saying, hey, we’re in, growth is slowing, a recession, we need to act. I mean, you’re kind of heading down the path best guaranteed. Either that we’re there already or we’re going to get there.

I mean, keep, keep, keep escalating in the Middle East. Keep that straight closed. And if we weren’t there yet, we could be by lunchtime. Wow. Yeah, that’s pretty scary. But yeah, that’s definitely something important to note. So I wanted to share my screen really quick and to show Chris’s YouTube channel. It’s Arcadia Economics. I’m subscribed. I, I click the notification bell so I get his videos. Thank you. Definitely. You should definitely subscribe to his channel. He has really great videos. He has some with David Morgan that are really good too, and himself. Would you like to tell the viewers a little bit about your YouTube channel? Sure.

Well, we’ve been doing that for, I guess it started in 2012, ramped it up more a couple of years ago, and especially for people who are invested in gold and silver, or if you’re in just interested or want to learn about gold and silver, do a show every day where we talk about the things that are going on in the markets and how they impact gold and silver, much like you and I have been talking about today and try to keep them not too long. So if you’re looking for a way just to stay up to date of the main themes and trends that are happening, try to mix in some jokes.

I know it got a little heavy today, although we’re in some unusual times here. But, you know, while there’s certain things happening in the world, I think that’s always going to be the case. And I suppose the key is how do we take where we are, prepare ourselves and react accordingly to that. So that’s what we dig into on the channel and I see you also have the sub stack pulled up there, so. Oh yeah. Video and written content. So. So whatever you like. We’re talking about gold and silver and trying to just simplify this so that if you’re.

Regardless of what level you’re at, if you’re seeing a big shift happening in the world and wondering how that’s going to affect you and also the current state of the metals, that these are the two places where we share what’s going on. And definitely also follow him on X. He has a great X account where he posts his videos and a lot of other information as well. So you can definitely follow him on X there at Alexander. Yeah, scroll down there a little bit to the second one. What? Yeah, there you go. There’s the. The wholesale prices rose that I mentioned earlier, 0.7% in February, much more than expected, up to 3.4% annually.

The Fed’s inflation mandate, last I heard, was 2%. 3.4% seems bigger. And yeah, that’s, that’s the one we’re talking about. And I think is that was released right before the Fed’s meeting. Will be a hoot to see how they respond or comment on that when they come out with their announcement and press conference. But some serious things happening out there right now. I definitely agree and I’m glad that you can give us all this great information. And just like to say he has some merch on his YouTube channel. Definitely buy some. Got silver, pretty cool. And Arcadia economics as well.

And I would just like to thank you, Chris, for coming on the show, providing all this great insight on all these different topics on gold, silver, oil, the war. So I think, I hope the viewers found it helpful for sure. Well, I sure appreciate that. It’s always nice to see you and thanks again for having me on here and hopefully this was helpful for people at home and we’ll have to do it again sometime. It definitely was for me and I definitely would like you to come on the show again soon. And just big thank you to all the viewers who are watching.

Please subscribe and like the video if you and share this video with all your friends so we can get the word out. And thanks again for watching. You all have a good day. Well, thank you to Alexander and thank you watching at home. Sure appreciate you spending part of your day here. Hopefully the coverage this week during a rather turbulent time has been helpful and we will take one last look at the gold and silver pricing before we wrap up for the trading week here. You can see gold futures about noontime East coast down $33 to 45.72 and silver also continuing its decline, currently below the $70 mark at 69.78 on the futures.

And we can see the Brent crude oil price roughly flat on the day at 109.56. But we will see what happens over the weekend. Hit the subscribe button and the notification bell and we will keep you posted posted on everything as it develops. And again, a special thank you to Alexander for this great conversation. Here’s his channel which I’d really encourage people to check out. He does some great work, especially inspirational to see. He’s a bit younger and I actually met him four or five years ago. So in case you are looking for some more fun things to watch over the weekend, you can see he has a lot of great guests here and especially this one.

I’m a big James Corbett fan. I’ve actually been working on a September 11th book where I’ve been doing some of the research for the past few years. Not sure when that will be ready, but James Corbett followed a lot of his research for a great interview with Alexander and James. Well, just click on the video that’s coming your way now. Sam.
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