➡ China’s increasing demand for gold is causing smart banks to prepare for this trend. This is due to China’s four-step plan and the alignment of financial factors. Additionally, the non-farm payrolls day on April 4th is significant, as it could influence the Federal Reserve’s decisions on monetary policy. The market’s reaction to these developments is reflected in the gold chart.

What’s different this time part of the conversation was actually materially important. Because in 2021, we were in the first year of a supply deficit. In 2021, you had banks pushing back on the idea, right? In 2025, you’re in the fourth or fifth year of a supply deficit, number one. Number two, you’ve got the LBMA not able to true up their silver that’s available for delivery. And number three, while you have gold at all-time highs. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey. Where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day.

And now, here’s Vince. Good morning. I’m Vince Lancey. Take two. 10-year yields are down five. The dollar is 104 spot 10. Up 10, S&P 500 is down 32 handles. The VIX is 24. Gold is 31.21. Up 36 dollars near its highs. Silver is 3,408. Down five. Copper is five. Even down almost a percentage point. WTI is 69.74. Up 46. Nat gas is 420. Up 13. Bitcoin is 82 and changed. Unchanged offered. Palladium, platinum, you can see they’re up. And grains are also up. Okay, there are three topics to talk about today. Well, there are more than three, but we’re going to try and squeeze in three here in the next 10 minutes.

Silver squeeze goes global. That’s the first topic we’re going to be touching on. The second one is that MSA has some confirmation on their analysis. And we’re also going to give a hint that we think there’s a lot more going on underneath the surface with all these bank reports out than people are admitting. There’s the homepage. We would draw your attention to the HeartNet report as well as the other reports that are covering gold specifically. Next, okay, feature today, Goldman raises 2025 forecast across the board at 4500 tail risk. We have that report analysis to BOA 3500 target report breakdown.

That’s us taking a report and breaking it down so people can understand a little better. There’s the HeartNet analysis, JP Morgan, and miners. Let’s go with the silver squeeze and how it hits us. And you’ve also helped fuel gold surge past the $3,000 per ounce milestone. Now, the price of the yellow metal has surged over 31% in this financial year. However, returns from silver have outpaced gains from gold this fiscal. The metal has gained 35% this financial year, but still hasn’t hit all time highs. This has triggered an online campaign, which is called for a collective buy of physical silver on the 31st of March.

Manisha Gupta is here with more on this, Manisha. Oh yeah. So there’s an online campaign happening on social media, which is telling retail investors to go out and buy physical silver on 31st of March. Well, this campaign has been going on for a few months right now. It’s called silver squeeze 2.0. There are three or four things that this community is putting out one that gold has hit all time highs, but silver is trading at a 13 year high, far from its all time highs. The second point is that many of these large banks are net shorts on silver.

And that should be an opportunity to buy. The third thing is about the physical versus paper silver. And that ratio is quite huge. And that could be another reason for you to buy. So the community on social media rights that if you do not buy silver now, it is going to be going to be an obtaining going forward there. But this is not the first time this is happening. A similar social media trend was in 2021 as well by Reddit last time. And at that time, when the buying was pushed, the silver ETF buying gained by nine times.

The silver price is also surged from $25 an ounce to $29 and a half dollars an ounce. But then it was a very short lived thing. And after that huge run up, the momentum kind of fizzled out and there was no sustained buying as well. But what is different in 2025 right now is that 25 is the fifth straight year of global deficit for silver. This also is the year when markets are anticipating for a record fourth industrial demand year as well. And then apart from that, there are tariff concerns as well, which have been supportive metals in that case.

But for silver, we saw an all time high in 1980 at $49 and a half dollars per ounce. Right now, it’s at $35 an ounce. So there is this huge gap up that silver in any case has to take on. And this perhaps could be a time. But here is a word of caution as well coming in from Harshal Bharat of Metal Focus, where he says, well, prices can go up, but not in a sustainable way. Okay, I think it’s interesting, obviously, that what was a little bit of a social media hobby in 2021 that was quite successful in conjunction with PSLV buying is now globally recognized.

So I would say this is more than a March 31st day. This is a movement, not an event. And I would I would note that the the what’s different this time part of the conversation was actually materially important, because in 2021, we were in the first year of a supply deficit. In 2021, you had banks pushing back on the idea. Right. In 2025, you’re in the fourth or fifth year of a supply deficit. Number one, number two, you’ve got the LBMA not able to true up their silver that’s available for delivery. And number three, while you have gold at all time highs, I think the time might be now for this.

And I say that, you know, as as an owner. All right. So next, and that same momentum indicator likely and likely and will restart now. This past week’s action is courting Michael Oliver. This past week’s action finally took out that pristine momentum ceiling, declaring not again, our specified numbers were a weekly close at 3055 or an actual week trade to 3085. Both were accomplished. You can read the rest of that. I would remind you that this is not a new trigger. This is a trigger from March that went sideways and plateaued for a while.

And now the shorter term indicator has reignited. So this is a continuation of a momentum leg up from March of 24. We also recognize that not necessarily as a momentum indicator, but that’s when the macro discretionary boys officially jumped in. Okay. On your screen are four. Let me cover that a little bit better here. There you go. Four of probably eight reports that we’ve seen and covered and a couple of reports that we haven’t recovered over the past week. There is much more to this gold rally that meets the eye beyond the repatriation, which we’ve alerted you to.

That’s more than meets the eye beyond the fact that it’s correlation with the dollar is over, at least for now. That’s something we alerted to readers to in 23. This is a new thing. Okay. The new thing is banks are being much more frank in the reasons for their bullish calls. They see things that we see. Okay. But they don’t discuss them like we do because they’re trading their own books as well. But now they’re getting in front of what we think is a trend. So if there’s one thing, I have a little script here.

If there’s one thing, a wall street macro discretionary fund manager likes to hear it is a quantified objective, a target based on captured demand. They’re going to be buying this much meeting limited supply. We don’t have enough, not technicals. Okay. Not hope. These are all things we like, but this is not what a wall street manager needs to hear. Not predictions of a weaker dollar or a bigger deficit, actual demand numbers that must be bought over a defined timeframe. Okay. Specifically, we refer to Chinese buying from insurance companies, which has been quantified and central bank demand, which is going to grow, not shrink over the coming years.

Bank of America and Goldman Sachs gave them that last week. Okay. Their reports were extremely quantitative for gold and very timely. These reports also came out days after macro discretionary bought their positions back in wake. There is more news not being discussed here. We believe that the news is number one, not most importantly, but number one central banks, probably second, most importantly are not going to stop buying. They want to continue buying for anywhere from two to six years, depending on whose report you believe in. And they’re also going to take their increase.

They’re going to take their holdings of gold from 10% of the VEX reserves to 30% because that’s the responsible way to do it in a more mercantilistic world. The second thing, which I think is more potentially explosive and not in the market is that the Chinese insurance industry is now permitted to buy 1% of their assets and put it into gold so they can offer to clients. And we’ve talked about that here. We’ve alerted people to that. But the banks are now discussing it. Okay. In varying degrees, but they’re discussing it.

So we believe that the bank seeing this captured order flow, they’re going to buy it, right? By now looking ahead at the potential ramp up from a pilot program some more. And in fact, China does have a four step plan, which I’ll be reviewing. The bottom line is when the math lines up, the demand in this case, the funds become the catalyst. They become the reason that people go, oh, gold’s going up because the math lines up. And there’s more going on here than just these reports. It’s kind of like these guys, the smarter bullion banks are getting in front of it because they see the demand coming out of China.

They see the demand coming out of central banks and they see the repatriation of gold and they look at the backdrop of tariffs and they look at the backdrop of a bifurcating world in terms of trade. And they say, shit, we have to get ahead of this. We have to be responsible to our clients. And that’s what’s happening. All right. Moving on down on deck today, non-farm payrolls. You can make the case that April 2nd, which is the tariff deadline is important, but April 4th might even be more important. We’ll put it this way.

It raises the importance of April 4th, which is the non-farm payrolls day. We’ll throw you a number, right? Under 200,000, above 100,000 is okay. All right. Below 100,000, maybe below 120,000, you’re going to see a problem for PAL. Above 180,000, you’re going to see a problem for PAL. So PAL’s functioning normality is getting squeezed. The number’s 140. We think it’s going to be 120, 180. Below or above that? Below that, PAL’s got to consider easing. Above that, PAL’s got to consider tightening. The point is he can’t do either right now.

And that’s the way it is. Here’s the markets. I’ll give you the chart. Here’s the gold chart. See those two lines there? Those are the dates of those two reports. Notice what the market did after those dates. When the West starts believing in bullion banks, you better stop disbelieving in them. They know what’s going on. We know what’s going on. And now you do. Have a great day. Thank you for making any decisions, and thanks for watching. [tr:trw].

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