➡ The rise in gold prices to $3,500 this year was due to global trade uncertainty, but now, changes in the economy are expected to be the main factor affecting its price. This is based on our observations of how tariff policies, inflation, and Federal Reserve activity have influenced the market. In the future, we believe that economic data and Federal Reserve policies will be the key triggers for further increases in gold prices. However, a strong push will be needed to break the current record highs.
➡ The Middle East conflict has caused oil prices to drop significantly, while gold prices remained stable, indicating that China’s gold buying isn’t over yet. The platinum and palladium market is also fluctuating, with banks possibly shorting platinum and going long on palladium. The platinum market experienced a surge due to physical tightness in China and traders trying to get ahead of this. If platinum stays above 1297, reaching 1390 shouldn’t be a problem.

Gold’s ascent towards $3,500 this year has been driven by global trade uncertainty, but macroeconomic data are now expected to become the primary catalyst for price movement, according to our observations tracking reaction functions to tariff policy, inflation, and fed activity. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey, where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning, everyone. I’m Vince Lancey, and this is the Gold Fix Market Rundown. There’s our homepage. The topic for the day will be the story in the lower left-hand corner that was sent out to subscribers about an hour ago, gold and silver outlook for the rest of 2025, lower left-hand corner.

On the right-hand side, the return of Pax Americana, that’s an unlocked post by Peter Cheer of Academy Securities, and we thought that was interesting because he echoes something that we had been saying since the first bomb dropped, and that was, at some point, the U.S. will have to step in and re-establish the boundaries. The referee needed to break up the hockey fight, at least to show everyone what it’s like when we are around. Okay, let’s start with the markets. Ten-year yields are $4.31 up one and a half, the dollar is $9.812 up $15, the S&P 500 is up almost $12 at $6,100, the VIX is $17 and change, gold is $33.25 up a couple bucks, silver is $35.79 down 11 cents, copper is $4.88 up a penny, WTI continues to get slapped, $65.65 down $39, natural gas $3.50 in sympathy down $4, Bitcoin $1.07 in change, up $1,000.

Okay, getting respectable. Play game down $12, almost $13 to $10.51 and platinum down $3, but was up all night remaining strong at $13.13. Gold, silver are respectable, but nowhere near where we all know it should be, $92.85. Soybeans, corn, and wheat are down five and a half, down four, down two, $10.38, $4.18, and $5.48, respectively. Wheat and corn have been pretty volatile lately, maybe it’s planting related, I’m not sure. Okay, a quick comment about the board. When Shanghai opens, platinum is being bought now, platinum is being bought now, and some silver, and then it fades as the day goes on.

Now, the Chinese buying, evidentially, empirically, the Chinese buying when the open is now in platinum. And that’ll be important when we get into the main topic, which is gold, silver, platinum, palladium outlook for the rest of 2025. Gold and silver, it’s noise. Hate to say it, but it is noise. Okay, let’s share a little bit of our outlook. Gold’s ascent towards $3,500 this year has been driven by global trade uncertainty, but macroeconomic data are now expected to become the primary catalyst for price movement, according to our observations, tracking reaction functions to tariff policy, inflation, and Fed activity.

Going forward, we believe macroeconomic data and Fed policy are seen as the most likely catalysts for the next leg higher in gold. A strong upside trigger in the short term will be required to break all-time highs for now. While that seems improbable, in the short term, I should say, if we have learned nothing else these past few years, we have learned not to underestimate the political inclination to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Topics discussed or included are where we are now and how we got here. That’s the recap, right? Positioning remains light in the West despite Eastern buying.

That’s put in context. China’s white metal demand has now replaced yellow metal demand. As well as our observations on how the banks are viewing that, how we view that, and where they overlap and where we go our separate ways as well. Also, it’s important to note that, and this is the reason that gold’s not going higher tomorrow, geopolitical drivers have been tamped down to just give you like a sense or two from that. There’s kind of a mini-reglobalization going on. The US had a riada cord with the Saudis, and then a rare earth deal, so Trump did that.

Israel, whether we gave them permission or not, they just bombed the shit out of Iran, and the US just backed off and watched, and it got bad, and it could have gotten a lot worse, and so we stepped in and escalated to de-escalate. Boom. Now, is it over? I’m not saying it’s over, but I’m saying everyone’s kind of in time out. The hockey fight, the US being the referee, was broken up, and it’s kind of like you’re sitting back if you’re President Trump and you’re saying, well, this is what it’s like when we’re not around, and now that we’re around, you should probably be a little bit more thankful for our presidents.

We don’t just protect Israel from you. We protect you from Israel as well. Anyway, I think when you zoom out just a little bit more, there’s no way we could have done that without first checking with the regional powers, China, Russia. We met with China. We met with the Saudis. It was coming. Pre-arranged or not, the possibility of it happening was not small. Russia, I don’t know that we actually talked to them, but they were in on it one way or another. That’s the story. That continues. The whole analysis continues in premium with some price targets as well under gold and silver price outlook for 2025.

It looks like that drag in there. The related post from yesterday, growing calls for Germany and Italy to pull $245 billion out of the US. It’s in the article, but we want to think this is important. What started as extremist left or right, I forget, three months ago when we wrote about it, is now far left and far right, you’re agreeing on this. You have the neo Keynesian middle getting squeezed there. Do I think that they’re going to have the gold come back? There’s not going to be an announcement of that. You’ll just destroy the LBMA.

Maybe we don’t mind that too much, but nothing will happen in a crisis. After a crisis, you’ll see something happen. Market rundown to that effect, the return of Pax Americana, we mentioned that, and the gold fixed PM, we included that today because there was a lengthy recap of what happened yesterday. We’re not going to rehash the whole thing for you there, but most of that is unlocked if you’d like to read it. Data on deck today is new home sales. Housing is soft and probably getting softer. I’m not sure what that will do today, but everyone I think is looking for PCE.

The market wants to go with more cuts now, and so the market’s starting to price that in. By the way, which is a direct relationship to gold. If the market is pricing more cuts in, then gold will have a bid underneath it in the west. If the market doesn’t believe there’ll be more cuts, if PCE comes in aggressively higher, well, that could be bearish for stocks and gold. Both assets should start to move like risk on in tandem. That’s not to say that dollars are not going to get weaker over the long run.

It is to say that gold, as we iterated earlier on, is becoming more of a slave to macroeconomic, neo-Keynesian data again, which implies that correlations with the dollar and correlations with rates will come back. Let’s look at a couple of charts. Here’s gold. I have four charts. Gold, top left palladium, lower left platinum, and lower right gold silver. Let’s just do a cursory look at things here. I’m going to bring up gold a little bit bigger. There’s a lot of ways to look at this. You have one of the founders pointed that out indirectly about a month ago, and I’ve been watching it ever since.

Here we are, and the dark blue line is the 50-day. A 30-day, 50-day, it’s pretty important. I would say if I were bearish, I wouldn’t sell it until it got below this. If I were bullish, I would buy it right now and not get out until it gets below there. That’s a tactical comment, but I want to draw your attention to this. Remember the three lines? Okay, this line, it’s really not that important, but I leave it there for good measure. See if I can get rid of it. There you go. There you have it.

That’s our range. The trade that I recommended or suggested, I wouldn’t recommend anything, when we were trading in here was just put on butterflies and go away. And boom, should I have listened to my own advice there? Well, I did, but I didn’t keep them on long enough to realize the types of profits that we can get here. Okay, so we’re in a range, right? It’s a good range. Here’s what I mean. Look at gold, right? War fears, trade fears, trade resolution. Gold is here. War in the Middle East, semi-resolved, and gold is here.

Gold is nowhere on the resolution of two geopolitical semi-resolution of two geopolitical problems, which means we’re positioning for another leg higher. And I’m smiling because I know that I’m getting bullish talking myself into this, but that’s the way it is. The market’s not going down enough. Why do I bring that up in such a contrast with this? Oil. Oil. Oh, there’s war in the Middle East. Oil is now below where it was when this all started. Okay. I mean, it’s, oil gave back over a hundred percent. It started the, well, I mean, let’s just say a hundred percent, right? I see it as over a hundred percent, but this is it.

Oil is like, oil had seven percent moves in a week and gold did nothing. So the oil risk was potential and frothy. This is all CTEs covering shorts and getting long. And this is all CTEs getting out, as well as macroeconomic, who have abandoned gold and they’re in oil and they got their asses kicked. You better come back to, to pop a gold, right? Oil’s not going to be friendly to you. All right. So that’s the gold comment. The gold comment is, hey, we’ve just weathered two big news items in the market that should, by all argument, put us another hundred lower.

And that’s, that’s a good sign. That means China buying is not done. Palladium. Let’s take a look at Palladium and you have, what you have is, here, I’ll just make it a little bit bigger for you. And we go there. Palladium, you have kind of like a measure move that was setting up and it failed. And I think this is telling, I think the banks are short platinum still and long Palladium. And now they’re unwinding their Palladium and still covering their platinum. The platinum Palladium spread is something to keep an eye on, which brings us to the more interesting, I should have caught this earlier, still time though, the more interesting platinum.

First of all, this part of the run-up was physical tightness starting in China. This part of the run-up was banks and traders going, oh, shit, I better get ahead of this. And this area here was a battle for 1300, the battle because there’s a lot of open interest at the 1300 stripe and those options are kind of in play now. And now we’re above it. And that little curve there, that’s the measured move concept from top to bottom, from bottom to top in a very short time period. If we stay above 1297, call it 1300, then 1390 should not be a problem.

That’s just technical. Fundamentally, or let’s just say mechanically, the 1300 strike will add as a magnet for a while. I’m not sure, but you see this selling right here. See this right here. I’ve seen that before. And that selling is what you do when you’re still trying to buy. Buy five, buy five, buy five, announce that you’ll sell 100. And then when they get everything back, you can see the market do this and then go higher. I’m just saying, if you’re playing this game, you’re long now. I’m not long now. If you’re playing the game more cautiously, you’re a buyer above 1327 and you’re a seller below 1297.

That’s it. Above 1327, 1390 should not be a problem. I don’t know. I don’t have anything on you. We’ll see. I don’t want to get too crazy right now. All right. So that’s it. I’m Vince. Everyone have a great day. Well, thanks for watching this morning’s markets and metals with Vince Lancy. We sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here. Hope you enjoyed the show and we’ll see you again tomorrow. Please note that this video is not intended as legal license financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only.

Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions and thanks for watching
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