➡ Gold prices are expected to rise to $4,200 by the end of the year, according to UBS. This increase is due to falling real rates, a weaker dollar, and strong demand. However, there’s a possibility that prices could reach up to $4,700. This information is brought to you by Vince Lancey in his daily financial and precious metals news update.
➡ The World Gold Council’s Gold Demand Trends Report, which provides an analysis of what central banks are doing and their future plans, is crucial for understanding market trends. This report can influence gold prices, as seen when the Philippines’ decision to sell some gold caused a drop in gold prices. The report also discusses ETF flows, investment demand, and central bank activities. Additionally, the market is currently showing signs of gravitating towards $4,000, and silver is proving to be strong despite its volatility.

Gold is consolidating near $4,000 an ounce after a brief correction, but remains aligned with UBS’s forecast of 4,200 by year ends. But wait, there’s more. According to UBS, falling real rates, that’s happening. A weaker dollar, and maybe not, strong official demand, that’s happening, could push prices toward their upside target of 4,700. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey. Where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning, everyone. I’m Vince Lancey. This is the Goldfix Market Rundown.

It’s $7.50 Tuesday morning. We’ll be talking, there’s the front page, we’ll be talking about the lower left-hand corner, UBS, Ken Gold’s Rally Resume. The answer is yes, 4,700 is in play, not guaranteed, and we’ll go through the nuance of what they’re talking about, as we have in that post. Incidentally, our work has recently been featured on Druzel and Post, at Yahoo, the Yahoo community, the new Yahoo community that is up. And as always, we are grateful and thankful for the relationship that we have had over the years with Zero Hedge, and when we had an opportunity to have our work featured up there, we’re thankful for that.

Okay, so markets. 10-year-olds are down one, the dollar is up 23, relentless. SP500 is down 67, not relentless. The NASDAQ is down 302, whoa, the VIX is up two. Gold is down 14, almost 15. Silver is 4,773, down 33. Okay, copper down 13, that’s a lot, 2.25, 2.5%. WTI down 71 cents, natural gas down 2 cents, after a tarred run LNG weather-related. Bitcoin down 2,500. I don’t even have to read the rest of it. The world is looking at recession risk and oh crap, so everything. Platinum down 34, palladium down 15, gold, silver up 34, grains are mixed, wheat is up because hey, wheat is what they buy over there in Eurasia.

Okay, so being a little bit less snarky about it. So you got 10-year-olds down a little bit, a little bit of a recession concept there, but bonds aren’t really what they used to be in terms of a flight to safety. The dollar is up, stocks are down, NASDAQ is down more. When NASDAQ is down a lot more than stocks, you want to be aware of that, percentage-wise it’s close. The VIX is up, the VIX is reacting, the gold is down, so it’s not geopolitical, it’s not war. What is it? It’s economic on some level.

Silver is down in sympathy, copper is down purely economic, WTI is down, marching to its own tune, natural gas is completely its own animal now. Bitcoin behavior like a tech stock. Okay, so there’s some data out somewhere I have to find. All right, so let’s go to the actual story and then we’ll try and figure that out later on. UBS put out a report on the 31st and then another one on the 2nd, April 2nd. We’ve combined those two and we’ve broken them down and we’ve hopefully walked through them so people can get something out of it.

Gold is, to paraphrase our own work, gold is consolidating near $4,000 an ounce after a brief correction but remains aligned with UBS’s forecast of 4,200 by year ends. But wait, there’s more. According to UBS, falling real rates, that’s happening, a weaker dollar and maybe not, a strong official demand, that’s happening, could push prices toward their upside target of 4,700. I think it’s all about the rates, not the dollar and not the official demand. Just to give you a little heads up there, it’s all about real rates which means as real rates drop, monetization of debt increases and we are on a path to that.

The bank notes that two-thirds of central bank buying goes unreported, two-thirds, like it, I’m sorry, it never used to be like that. Maybe it wasn’t, we just didn’t know about it but two-thirds of central bank buying goes unreported. So those charts that you see, this is when they bought and now they’re, since 2022, they’ve been buying since 2009. I’m sorry, this is just ridiculous. Aside from the fact that there’s more gold being bought than you know about, what does it also say about Western institutions? That they’re unreliable now. As the demand goes east, the supply goes east, we’ve seen that.

As the supply goes east, the businesses goes east, the vaults, the salesman, the wealth managers, and as all that goes east, what happens to Western post Bretton Woods institutions like the LBMA? They die. Like the IMF, which relies on reported data by voluntary institutions to give good information, they die. They’re dying. They’re unreliable. It’s the mall that no one goes to anyway. So rant over. That’s the idea. The idea is as the east takes demand, it takes, as the east has demand, it takes supply. As it takes supply, it takes data.

As it takes data, it weakens the franchise of institutions that control price in the West. It weakens the franchises that influence dollar strength. This is how price gets ported from the west to the east. Pricing power on exchanges is our most valuable asset right now when it comes to commodity prices. Commodity prices are one of the most important pillars of global dollar dominance. As you take the demand and the supply and the data and you weaken the support structure of these institutions, the post Bretton Woods bureaucracy is dying. IMF, World Bank, LBMA, all these things are dying.

Now they’ll be replaced by the Chinese version of them. Let’s be clear about that, but at least the Chinese version and the BRICS version is pro gold right now. So we’re not too biased. Anyway, back to this story. The bank notes that two thirds of central bank buying goes are reported, rant over, reinforcing a structural bull market and framing today’s consolidation as a healthy pause before gold’s next advance. That’s interpretation. That’s our interpretation of a chart they gave. Basically, it’s an analog of previous pullbacks. Jordan at the Daily Gold and I discuss these a lot.

He’s very big on these sort of things, but he’ll probably do them for every year going back to the beginning of time. But this one is pretty good, but it’s cursory. If you want the advanced stuff, talk to Jordan. Continues in the premium post, UBS asks, can gold’s rally resume? The answer is yes with 4,700 in play. And I say asterisk, if real rates keep dropping, the other stuff we know, we don’t care about, we don’t care about the dollar. The dollar’s not a reason for gold to go up or down.

Real rates are a reason. Next, related post, silver and 232 boomerang effect. That’s our terminology. The threat of tariffs creates tariffs. The threat of tariffs creates price hikes. That’s why silver rallied. Breaking China tightens its grip on silver. That’s a change in their rules. Restricting exports to our point that if you threaten tariffs, they stop exporting. Founders AI is pure energy inflation so far. This actually was kind of a surprise to us because the story of AI is deflationary productivity product. Yeah, but how about all the electricity they’re using going into it? So AI is pure energy inflation.

So it may not be reflected in the price of oil to your taste, not even at the price of natural gas. $3.74 is nothing. Natural gas can go to $17, not a problem. But all this energy that’s being used, first of all, in a crumbling power infrastructure, being used for data centers, I’m telling you. If you agree with this principle that the United States of America will opt for inflation over recession, as it has done for generations, because they’re more worried about depression than they are inflation. They’ll tolerate inflation. They feel they have a control over it, starting from that assumption, which is true.

If you understand that, then you understand that part of Trump’s plan is with the people around him and the people that he’s agreeing with and not agreeing with is to make sure we don’t have a recession, at least in name. And that means one big beautiful bill. That means lowering rates. That means fiscal spending. That means a bigger bubble that we hope the real economy follows through on. But what’s part of that concept? Well, part of that concept is commercial real estate. We need to employ people in commercial real estate.

We need to build things again. That’s what data centers strike all of the, which we’re looking for, tick all the boxes. You’re employing people to build things. There’s demand for commodities. And that means there’s demand for capital expenditures to build things. But there’s also demand for energy. And so your energy bill is going to be worth more. My energy bill is going to be higher, right? Why is that? Because remember, the government always opts for inflationary circumstances over deflationary circumstances. You will have higher energy bills. They will not give a shit until it’s election year or election month, and they give a subsidy to you.

Now, if you’re poor, you’ll be taken care of. I have no problem with that. If you’re rich, it doesn’t matter. And everyone in the middle gets screwed. The middle class gets mined for natural resources to build the economy. It happened in the 70s. It’s happening again. We’re not even into it yet. Anyway, big brand today, huh? Trying to restrict silver exports. We said that already. All right, so coming soon, not many people, no one is talking about this, except for maybe the people that are really in the know on the trading desks.

Last week on Thursday, the World Gold Council’s World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends Report came out. Now, the World Gold Council in our small circle of gold bonds doesn’t really carry a lot of weight with us because of their writing style is very muted and negative, actually. But this report is extremely important. Gold demand trends says what central banks are doing, what they intend to do, and it’s really an unfiltered analysis. And when you see things like it, like the Philippines is going to sell some gold, that dropped gold. When you see most banks are going to buy more gold next year, that rallied gold.

So these trends need to be digested. And so we’re going to break that down for everyone. I’m just going to make this bigger. Oh, yeah, there you go. We’re going to break this report down. There’s a table of contents that we’ve broken out on the left. That’s like the PDF thing, right? And the things that are the most important that we’ll pay attention to are ETF flows. We know about them, but we want to see if they’ll continue. The West investment demand, how has it changed? Central banks, which is key, and that’s what actually roiled the markets for a couple of days.

You know, I’ll talk about this. This report is important. We’re going to break it down for everyone. Where were we? That’s it. The chat, just really lively stuff going on there with lots of good information going back and forth, everyone. We have a broken into sections, by the way. There’s a main chat talking about it wherever you want, technicals, options discussion, miners, and we have a founder’s chat as well separated. Anyway, it’s lively. And I’m short staffed this week. My intern is on vacation, but when he comes back, he’ll be a full-time employee.

I hear that’s the rumor. So just bear with me for this week. We’ve already seen that. Down on deck today’s Tuesday, US trade deficits, a tumbler asterisk means don’t expect to see it. I would say go to a place like zero hedge for corollary or ancillary or substitute information or Bloomberg or whatever. If you’re spending $30,000 a month for a terminal or whatever the cost is these days. Anyway, let’s go to the charts for a second. All right, so I got all my old lines in there. I haven’t cleared out yet.

I like this. This is starting to shape up the way that I think it will. That is $4,000 is a magnet. Absent news items and absent an emboldened bullion bank cohort that will push it down, this market will find its gravitational force. Now, admittedly, we’re at the low end of gravitational force, but Polytrend’s Sumo’s product here, which I’m starting to like a lot, says between $39.52 and $40.23, I’m interpreting as taking that. Now, my range is more like I’m not bearish until it gets below $38.85. Really, I’m probably a little bearish here before then, but see this area here.

I’m looking at this as the range. It’s going to capture us for a while, and I’m looking at this right here as the level that we have to get above, $41.60-ish. I think this seller, the BIS, has a copycat in here. Silver, a little different. The volatility in silver is going to make it harder for me to make that assessment. First of all, options don’t have the pull, so there’s no strike right now that’s going to make silver, no gravitational pull on a strike. The second thing is silver is more volatile to begin with.

The third thing is silver is economically tied, so there will be people that are going to start as time goes on. They’re going to start saying, okay, let me sell some silver. Let me sell some silver. Copper’s already down. Let me sell some silver. That’s going to happen. You could have a $2 range in silver that’s unchanged on the day with a $30 range in gold. When there’s uncertainty in the market and there’s no news, gold will flatline with volatility faster than silver. Silver will attract stupidity for short timeframes. It’s down 30 cents now.

Silver’s down 30 cents, which is 60 basis points. Copper’s down 2.5% almost, 2.4%. See, that silver’s strong right now. Gold is down 35 basis points. Copper is down 2.4%. Silver is down 60 basis points. Genetically speaking, silver should be down 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Silver’s very strong. You may not feel it today, but it is. Looks like seasonality’s not really holding us up. We’re not going anywhere. Looking at oil, I’d love for this to be a bull flag. Look, you got a spike. Here’s your flagpole. Here’s your pullback. It looks like we’re under that ledge, so you should be short.

Maybe you should be short, but if it gets back into this body here, I think you start drawing lines like this, a diagonal line. Maybe you would draw one from there to there. Maybe you go with my idea of a bull flag, but if this ledge holds, that’s my season body, I think. All right. I’m Vince. Everyone have a great day. Before making any decisions, and thanks for watching. [tr:trw].

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