➡ The article is a discussion between Edmund DeMarche from Trends Journal and Larry Johnson, a former CIA analyst, about the current geopolitical situation involving the United States, Iran, and Israel. They discuss the U.S.’s military presence near Iran, the potential for conflict, and the influence of Israel on U.S. decisions. They also explore the possibility of regime change in Iran, the role of public opinion, and the ethnic makeup of Iran. The conversation concludes with the assertion that military action will not achieve regime change and may instead unite Iran’s population.
➡ The speaker discusses the Iran-Iraq War and its impact on Iran’s younger generation, who have no memory of it. They also talk about the defining event of June 13, 2025, when many Iranians were killed, comparing the reaction to the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks in the U.S. The speaker criticizes the U.S.’s approach to Iran, suggesting that a war would be disastrous and could end Trump’s presidency. They also challenge the perception of Iran as a major terrorist threat, arguing that the numbers don’t support this view and that Iran has largely targeted U.S. military, not civilians.
➡ Larry believes that a war between the U.S. and Iran is likely, based on the current military situation. However, if President Trump pays attention to public opinion, which is against the war, it might not happen. Larry thinks that the influence of Zionist money and Trump’s history with the Zionists could be the deciding factors. He also mentions that it wouldn’t take much for the U.S. to get involved if Iran is blamed for an attack on U.S. assets.

Please take two seconds to hit like, follow, share down below. It helps us beat the algorithm. Also, leave a comment. Also, check out trendsjournal.com. That’s trendsjournal.com for the world’s top trend forecasts that you will not get anywhere else. It’s trendsjournal.com. You’re either with us or you’re with the sheep in the mainstream. So please take two seconds to hit trendsjournal.com. Thanks. Hello everyone. I’m Edmund DeMarche with the Trends Journal. I’m happy to be here today with Larry Johnson. He’s a former CIA analyst and writer at Sonar 21. Larry Johnson, thanks for joining the Trends Journal.

Hey, thanks for the invite. Nothing going on, right? All’s at peace. Oh my God. Yeah, we said it all. Bye, Larry. Thank you for joining us. Obviously, everyone’s looking at you abroad right now. Ukraine’s kind of taking a back seat to what’s going on as far as worry about the war and the United States getting involved. Trump has announced that he will be sending a new carrier group into the region, the USS Gerald Ford, which was down near Venezuela. It’s now sailing towards the Iranian region. Larry, how significant is that move by Trump to do that? Is that essentially shuffling seats on the Titanic or is that a significant military move? I think at this point they have like one third of the US Navy in the region near Iran.

So how do you see that as far as a military threat from the US? Well, let me, I’ll answer it by saying yes. You’re on what? Okay, so let’s break it apart. Number one, it looks like there are two additional aircraft carriers headed to the region. George H.W. Bush out of Norfolk supposedly was supposed to depart like over Saturday or so, but there was a, I saw a report yesterday from a channel that keeps track of when ships depart and the George H.W. Bush pulled out of Norfolk on February 3rd, 12 days ago, 13 days ago.

So you could potentially have two additional aircraft carriers going in route. Now, what’s the significance of that? Let’s, we can compare it to Operation Rough Rider, if everybody remembers that from last March when the United States tried to establish freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, tried to destroy the missile force of the Houthis, utterly failed. And at that time the US had two aircraft carriers in the Red Sea protected by a total of four missile destroyers and one missile cruiser. Right now off the coast of Iran, you have one aircraft carrier, three destroyers, so a much smaller force.

So comparing what it was able to, what we currently have in Iran with what we did against the Houthis, we’re in no position to to do really any significant damage. Then you have the issue of the Tomahawk cruise missiles that are being carried by those US destroyers, at least half of their, they got, they got 96 missile tubes. So figure that half of those would be loaded with Tomahawk cruise missiles. So they could, between the three destroyers, they could launch 150. And then if you’ve got the additional nuclear submarines, there are four, we have in the US Navy, four US nuclear submarines that can carry and launch Tomahawk cruise missiles.

So at least one of those is probably on station. So that can launch another hundred. Here’s the problem. The range of the cruise missile is a thousand miles. The location of the aircraft carrier strike group right now, off the coast of Iran by a thousand miles. So explain to me how those cruise missiles are going to do any damage to Iran. They’re not unless the carrier strike group comes in closer to the coast, say a hundred miles offshore, which still sounds like a substantial difference or distance, except Iran has quite an arsenal of anti-ship missiles that can be fired from shore that frankly, the US would not be able to evade.

So this is where having these aircraft carriers in the region looks good on the news coverage. Yeah, we’re showing the flag. We’re showing our muscle. But the reality is they’re extremely vulnerable because Iran, like Russia, has hypersonic missiles that are maneuverable and that can more than cover that distance. So there’s a trade-off that the United States runs a real risk if they try to put those ships close to shore. The whether or not Trump strikes depends on the negotiations and you have to ask the question, what is our goal? If the United States is willing to make a deal to ensure that Iran doesn’t have a nuclear weapon, then they absolutely can get a deal.

Iran will allow inspections, full inspections of its various nuclear processing facilities, and it will negotiate and make concessions with respect to enrichment of uranium. They’re not going to give it up completely. They’re saying, hey, we’re signatories of the Non-Proliferation Treaty and we abide by that and we’re open to inspections to show we abide by it. So they’re not going to surrender that. If, on the other hand, Trump’s goal is regime change, then there’s nothing Iran can offer, say, or do that will prevent an attack from trying to provoke regime change. Similarly, Iran’s made it very clear they’re not going to make any concessions on their ballistic missile force because their ballistic missile force is a powerful deterrent to Iran.

And note, I’m fascinated. Remember, remember all why Iran had to attack last June, June 13th? Oh, we got to stop them from getting a nuke. And then, in terms of the climate, how much damage did the ballistic missiles do in Israel? Oh, they barely laid a hand on us. Well, if that’s true, then why do you give a damn about whether Iran’s got ballistic missiles? Because it’s a lie. It’s an Israeli lie. They got their ass handed to them. And were it not for the United States helping bring an end to that with cutting a behind-the-scenes deal with Iran? The devastation in Israel would have continued.

So this time, going into it, Iran has made it clear, if we’re attacked, we’re not holding back. They’ll be full-on. So Israel is trying to have its cake and eat it too by saying, we are not afraid of their ballistic program. Look what we did. We stopped it. And they’re last war. But yet now it’s an existential threat that needs to be stopped. How much influence do you think Netanyahu has over Trump at this point in the game with Iran? He visited the White House last week. Trump sailed the carrier, already had one headed there to begin with before the meeting.

Do you think Israel has the sway over Trump that a lot of analysts do? Or do you think Trump’s his own man at this point? No, I don’t think Trump’s his own man at all. I don’t think Trump’s driving the ship. Now, the question is, how closely is Trump following public opinion and looking ahead to the next election? And a lot of that depends upon the information he gets from people like Susie Wiles and Miriam Adelson. Let’s be clear about that. And Wiles is the problem. She’s going to filter it through an Israeli lens.

If they decide, screw it, we don’t care about public opinion. We care about eliminating this threat. And they really believe they can eliminate the threat from Iran. They may disregard public opinion. That’s the unknown. If Trump was rational and if he was fully in charge, he would look at the public opinion and say, no, we got to cut a deal with Iran. Sorry, Israel, but you’re off the table. But I don’t see that. And there’s a lot of kabuki theater going on with Trump saying he told Netanyahu X, Y, and Z. And yet when you listen to what Netanyahu’s saying in the Hebrew press, they very well could launch an attack against Iran with a full expectation that the United States would come to their aid.

And in fact, if Israel launches an attack on Iran, Iran’s not going to hesitate in attacking U.S. military installations in the Persian Gulf. So this can get out of hand very, very quickly. So the ultimate goal is regime change, it seems. And Trump mentioned that. He said the best outcome would be a regime change in Iran. How does he achieve that through bombing campaigns off of carriers? How is that achievable? It’s not. It’s not. It never has been achievable. So do you think he would settle with just fracturing Iran into different tribes? Well, all he’s going to do, he’s not going to fracture Iran.

I mean, let’s understand what the ethnic makeup of the Iranian population is. Sixty-one percent are Persian. Eighteen, nineteen percent are Azeri. You know, do the math right there. So almost eighty percent of the country are those two ethnic groups. Everybody else is irrelevant. They’re the dominant groups. Guess what? The ayatollah Khamenei is not Persian. He’s Azeri. I think the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard command is Azeri, not Persian. So the West is indulging this fantasy that there’s this great split within Iran when the exact opposite has been true. As a result of the U.S.

attacks, sponsored attacks through Israel last June, it has united the Iranians in a way they haven’t been united in years. We forget that, and forgive me if I’m wrong, but you’re like 44, 45 years of age? 44, yep. Yeah, okay. Same age as my son. Okay, I’ll adopt you. But tell me about your memories of the Iran-Iraq War. None. None. That’s because you’re born 1981 and that war started in 1981 and it ended in 1989. So basically when you’re eight years old. Okay, so everybody that’s in your category, let’s say 50 years of age or younger in Iran, don’t have a memory about that war.

Now for those who are over the age of 50, that war was a galvanizing event because they were attacked from the outside by Iraq. Iraq was funded by the United States. The United States gave Iraq the precursors for chemical weapons. So since that war, there had never been a single event since then that is as defining as what took place on June 13, 2025, when all of a sudden you’ve got all these Iranians being killed. They reacted the same way that Americans reacted in the aftermath of the attacks on 9-11. That’s remember we had Democrats and independents along with Republicans all together.

Everyone had a flag on their car window and I mean it was everything, USA and flags outside of homes. I remember that. So it didn’t start coming apart until Bush decided it was a great idea to invade Iraq and then the split fracturing started. Well, so far Iran hasn’t done anything to fracture that national unity. And in fact, it wasn’t just the attacks in June, these recent attempts to foment a color of revolution from without with arming Kurds and the Mujahideen of call the Balochis with weapons that were used to attack and kill other Iranian civilians as well as security personnel has further strengthen that resolve not weakened it.

We have Iran saying that they’re going to stand up to the U.S. They’re not going to and it’ll be an all out war no matter what happens. What would happen if Iran shows the world that it could stand up to these carrier groups and start really damaging bases and killing U.S. soldiers and in the region like what would the U.S. How do you think the U.S. would respond to Iran letting it complete like unleashing hell in the region? What do you think? How would that on like what’s the escalatory ladder there? I think it’d be the end of the Trump presidency.

You think it’d be the end of the Trump presidency? I think Trump would be forced from office because the alternative if he wants to go nuclear all of a sudden he’s going to be facing China and Russia are not going to stand by and let the United States threaten Iran with nuclear weapons because China and Russia signed a trilateral security agreement with Iran on the 29th of January. So nuclear weapons aren’t an option and here’s Trump after you know beating his chest and proclaiming the United States is the greatest military power in the world will suddenly get its ass handed to it a second time.

Remember this happened with the Houthis. We couldn’t stop the Houthis with two aircraft carrier groups and a bunch of F-35s and other planes bombing and they forced us out of the Red Sea. Iran is anybody that thinks Iran is an easier target is a moron. It is a much tougher target. Why is there no one in the White House telling Trump this or telling Trump to come hey stop with the rhetoric let’s calm down let’s try to keep an off-ramp here. Why isn’t there someone telling Trump exactly what you’re telling me right now? The self-delusion.

I sat in on a conversation two weeks ago tomorrow. I’m part of this discussion group it’s a Zoom call but it’s got a lot of very prominent people and there was a new member a retired Navy admiral he was like a three-star admiral and when the subject of Iran came up even though this man has had personal experience in Iran was saying the most egregious nonsense not because he was lying because he really believed it for example he said oh you know the Iran’s only 50 percent Persian no dude you’re off by 11 percent and within ethnic makeups that is a significant number you shouldn’t be wrong on something like that he then said that Iran has killed millions millions of Americans that is complete utter bullshit there’s not a single shred of evidence for that in fact uh and I just confirmed the numbers again today one of the complaints about Iran is it provides support to Hamas and Hezbollah law so according to not Larry Johnson not Wikipedia but the Israeli foreign ministry who publishes on its website every single terrorist attack by Palestinians against Israelis since 1999 August of 99 guess how many Israelis have been killed by those vicious terrorists Hamas and Hezbollah over 26 years it’s over 26 years uh 500 no well it’s higher than that 3000 but but when you but when you listen to Israel thought you they act like it was the Holocaust that it was monstrous and of that 3,300 I think is a correct number but that 3,300 at least 1200 are counted from October 7th but on October 7th I had argued that at least 500 of that 1200 were killed by Israel itself the Hannibal directive right they were they were blowing up cars that were leaving the festival without trying to identify who was in the car but but but the point is uh and when you ask of those you know there’s total of 1,200 attacks over over that period of time 3,300 casualties uh of those 1200 Hamas is only implicated in 300 of the 1200 okay so 25 percent and Hezbollah 10 10 so don’t feed me this nonsense about what a massive terrorist threat that Israel faces from Hamas and Hezbollah particularly when Israel in the course of now two years and three months have killed over 70 75,000 Palestinian men women and children compared to 3,300 over 26 years and that’s not mentioning the West Bank what’s going on there as well yeah so don’t don’t don’t don’t tell me that uh what a great threat you are from the Palestinians in Iran the numbers just don’t add up but nobody wants nobody wants to hear that and similarly for Americans the Iran has largely confined itself to attacking US military targets either directly or not not directly they’ve they’ve done it indirectly through proxies so assuming that things such as the the bombing of the marine barracks in Lebanon in October of 1983 and then the attacks the use of improvised explosive devices on US military personnel in Iraq from 2003 to 2016 uh that total number is less than a thousand okay and frankly attacks against people wearing uniforms that’s not terrorism we may not like it but that’s not terrorism that means they got enough balls to go after somebody with a uniform that’s carrying guns and can shoot back they’re not not cranking the you know put a suicide vest on and going into a pizza parlor and you know killing a bunch of kids and and women so like I said the the numbers show me these numbers of even tens of thousands it doesn’t exist but it’s a lie and this goes back to your why why does Trump not know this because they’ve got themselves already conditioned mentally into believing a fairy tale and any attempts to show them the alternative facts it just it does not compute so all these analysts that you see in these newspapers writing about why this is the time to take on Iran this is the time to strike this is it we’re never gonna have an opportunity like that these people have all been conditioned yes through years of true like you mentioned that I didn’t I wasn’t really you know old enough to remember the Iran-Iraq war but you do know as you know you’re raised in the United States you know Iran is the enemy yeah you are conditioned to understand that the Iranians don’t like them they’re they’re the bad they’re the terrorists yeah and so it’s interesting that even though you didn’t experience that war you’re still conditioned to you know know who the good guys are and the who the bad guys are well yeah and let’s look back at 9-11 who carried out 9-11 now I know there’s a lot of controversies at least surrounding how much the U.S.

knew and particularly Israel knew but that was carried out by Sunni extremists linked to bin Laden al-qaeda wahavis out of Saudi Arabia the Saudis were heavily involved with that and I believe it’s highly likely that Israel knew that but uh didn’t didn’t aim to pass that on and was happy to let it take place well Iran has been an enemy of that group and has fought against that group and did so Iran should have been our natural ally in going after al-qaeda instead we had concerted propaganda campaigns back in you know the 2001 2002 people like laurie milroy out claiming that uh Saddam Hussein was in bed with uh Osama bin Laden I mean it was complete a complete lie complete fabrication but a lot of Americans bought it and so we thought in this war on terrorism Iran and rock you know they both begin with an eye yeah in fact they said oh they show the three letters IRA who cares if it’s qrm it’s true it’s true yeah Larry my last question to you before I let you go thank you everyone we’ll have links down below it’s for sonar 21 that’s where you can find Larry’s writing um you mentioned before we spoke probably two weeks ago and you said that you thought that the war with between the U.S.

and Iran was all but certain do you still believe that has anything changed are we going to war well um if you if if you judge it in terms of the deployment of military assets yes and that’s where I come back to uh the one thing I don’t know is to what extent is Donald Trump paying attention to the public opinion polls if he is paying attention and driven by the public opinion polls then no we won’t go to war but I don’t think that is the biggest influence I think the influence of Zionist money and then his his history with the Zionists um I think that’s the determining factor we’ll see I I sure I sure hope I’m wrong I sure hope that he’s going with the public opinion I don’t think it would take very much for the U.S.

to get on board if there’s a strike blamed on Iran against any kind of U.S. assets so I think you know you remember with uh like you mentioned the wars in the middle east back in early 2000s it didn’t take much for the U.S. to get on board with these invasions and things correct correct but Larry Johnson thank you so much for for the chat I always appreciate seeing you all right Ed my pleasure thank you
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