The reassessment of U.S. exceptionalism is real. This has been the worst first half for the U.S. dollars since 1971. Conversely, it’s also been the strongest first half of the year for gold since 1980. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey. Where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning, everyone. I’m Vince Lancey. This is the Gold Fix Market Rundown. It’s Tuesday morning, $7.55. Ten year yields are down to the dollar is $98.97, up 31. S&P 500 is $6,405, up 14.

The VIX is $14.72, down 32. Gold is $33.16, up 2. It was up about 10 an hour ago. Silver, $3,805, down 10. Copper, $5.55, down a little less than 1. WTI, $6,764, down 17. Natural gas, $3.08, up 2. Bitcoin, up $400, at 118 spot, $500. Ethereum, $38.21, up about 60 basis points. Palladium, up $5, $12.37. Platinum, $13.88. Offered unchanged. Gold, silver, slightly firmer. Grains, all down. Wheat, down over a percent. Okay. What are we going to talk about today? Well, there’s the front page. Yesterday was all about the UBS silver report. And our commentary says it’s a lot.

We think it’s a more important report than it may appear. People actually were mentioning $42 isn’t really far away. Yeah, but it’s a 10% increase in price target. So that’s a 10% move in 90 days. Anyway, we like that report a lot. Low right-hand side charts, global central banks have a 0% success rate. That’s a paraphrase of a statement by Deutsche Bank. We’re going to show that accompanying chart because it’s quite, we think it’s quite amazing. And we’re going to go through a couple of the charts on that to give you a taste of what’s going on there.

So they had a very good chart pack that came out. And then we’ll talk a little bit about the gold-silver ratio. Last night I put out the gold fixed PM, but I didn’t email it. We’d already emailed you three times, I think, during the day. But there was a commentary about the gold-silver ratio that we’re going to discuss. Let’s start with the analysis. So we’re looking at a chart pack, and it says global central banks have a 0% success rate. And that’s our title. But there are a few relevant charts on gold, inflation, and U.S. debt excerpted from a comprehensive chart package by Deutsche Bank and, as alluded to, by Zero Hedge.

And we caption them for contents. The last chart, which we’ll show you, is killer. We’re going to go through a couple of those charts to give you a feel for it and make some comments along the way. Here’s our first chart, gold prices in real terms. Over the long run, virtually all commodities struggle to outperform inflation. But since money was no longer tied to gold in 1971, it has increased tenfold in real terms. The reassessment of U.S. exceptionalism. Here’s the first half performance of the U.S. dollar index. The reassessment of U.S. exceptionalism is real. This has been the worst first half for the U.S.

dollars since 1971. Conversely, it’s also been the strongest first half of the year for gold since 1980. Indeed, gold remains the standout performer of the 21st century so far. Bitcoin aside, it’s returned more than 11 times its value from the end of 1999, with the S&P up only 6.8 times. Here’s a chart we think is interesting, as simple as it is today. There’s an insight that the bank gave that we had no idea about, so it was good to learn that. In the modern world, M2 money supply is almost always unlikely to return back to the previous trend after a spike as it would be too painful.

In the modern era. I think there’s a couple things that jump out at me here. One is, again, paraphrasing the report. I’m using their words. PAL has done a pretty good job getting it close to trend, but it’s not back on trend. Now we’re looking at pressure to ease again. I don’t think we’re going to have a mission accomplished here any time soon. M2 is creeping into people’s conversations again in context of Bitcoin, in context of China. That’s M1 actually, in context of a couple other things. We mentioned the financial repression yesterday. M2 is going to start creeping into the vernacular again.

That’s what people will be talking about. The other thing we wanted to mention was, it’s too painful. Like, we never go off the drug. It’s too painful. And so we hobble along and hope to innovate our way out. Here’s the chart that’s just killer. The average annual inflation rate of 152 economies since 1971 when Bretton Woods collapsed. No economy has averaged less than 2% inflation but Switzerland. At 2.2% comes the closest. In this fiat economy era, no economy has averaged less than 2%. There’s just, central banks have a 0% track record in controlling inflation. Now, do you think they really want the target to be a target or just something to give you to look at, to hope for? Hope springs eternal.

The target’s not important to them. It’s just a tether. You’ll never see it go the other way. Let’s put it that way. A couple other charts I think we’ll just throw in here since we’re moving so quickly today. There’s global M2 money supply versus Bitcoin, implying that Bitcoin is cheap. Interesting. You can’t ignore that. Central bank policy rate across 83 economies as of, as on July 1st, 2025. The case for this chart is, this is Trump’s case, that our rates are actually high relative to the other G7 economies, considering the strength of our currency as well.

G7 DM markets, that’s the light blue, emerging market economies. We have a higher rate than many emerging market economies. Not most, but many. Anyway, that’s Trump’s case. Make it what you will. The rest of those charts, as excerpted from the full report, are in our post that we just sent out of the email in premium. Related posts, silver, UBS raised targets of $42, we mentioned that. Founders, that’s the killer’s chart comment. Chris Whalen had a post yesterday. The big gold silver unwind, so let’s take a look at that. First data on the deck. Today’s Tuesday, consumer confidence and a couple other things, I think.

Inventories. Case Shiller. Case Shiller is pretty important. All right. Let’s stay here and we’ll go. Here. All right. So on your screen, you see four of the same chart. Gold silver by month. And. I will make. Notes on one of the charts and save them if they’re important, but it won’t show up on all the charts. And as I was looking at the gold silver ratio last night, I pulled up this chart and there it is. Goldman recommends buying gold and selling silver. With. The gold silver ratio at 102. So. Near the high gold silver ratio came off since that.

Just to give you an idea of how much the gold silver ratio has moved since everyone came out bearish on silver at the peak of. What do you want to call it? Liberation day or whatever April 1st was the after effective liberation day. So give me an idea. Right. So. Let’s get back to a chart that’s less convoluted. Less cluttered. I don’t usually make. Calls in terms of price. But I’m pretty comfortable saying this because it’s got a nice risk reward in it. If the gold silver ratio does not get above eighty nine. Ninety on a monthly closing basis, then the gold silver ratio will trade seventy nine within three months.

Could happen within three days. But. If you look at the patterns going back in the past, when the gold silver ratio gets overbought, it has a reciprocal underbought or oversold situation. And if you’re wondering where I got these numbers from, there are two channels there going up. Right. The lower channels when we’re in now. This channel has been important to me since twenty twenty one. I drew it after the other channel broke and. It tested the highs and now we’re below it. Not only are we below it. We’re also below a channel that. I drew. When I was trying to decide if the market was just in a range this way.

So we’re below eighty nine. I’m going to call it ninety. I want to get that number in there. Right. Below ninety. We should go to seventy nine. So what is that? Thirty five hundred divided by eighty. Forty two. And thirty. What is that? I did take off my shoes to count that it’s about forty four dollars. So with gold at thirty five hundred dollars that puts silver at forty four dollars. So. If gold goes to thirty five hundred silver should be at forty four hundred. I’m sorry forty four dollars unless it’s another tariff panic on the geopolitical side.

That’s it. Take a look at the rest of the markets. It would do for one of these. So there’s gold. That’s a monthly. Certainly. Technically speaking that’s a bull flag. It’s also becoming a ledge and these long wicks are telling you there is real selling up there. And I suspect that it was this was bullion banks that were long making a lot of money booking profits. And I think you’ve got producers in here now. Who knows. You could have tried to making some markets. Silver. Silver is not toppy at all. And not overbought yet either. So I think it gets overbought when it gets above forty.

And then it backs off for a little bit. So gold can stay in this range captured gold is captured while silver goes higher. Everything’s catching up. Copper. And I have a real feel for this. It’s out of a structure. Looks like it’s a. A mini version of like palladium. Or platinum. Well, nothing’s a mini version of platinum. Platinum is platinum. A mini version of. Look at that. OK. Oil. Let’s take a look at oil. Well. Maybe it’s a little early. Maybe we’re not on the lows yet. But. There are good signs. This is kind of like gold in.

January and February of twenty four. A high. Spike high. A retest a sell off a weaker retest. And then a working down for it before it went back up again. Anyway something to keep your eye on. Vince. That gold’s perking up a little bit. Gold silver is going to have gyration. There’s going to be people coming on both sides now. Gold silver is backed up. They go buy some gold. I think I’ll sell some silver. It’s going to happen. It’s happening now. Well thanks for watching this morning’s markets and metals with Vince Lance. We sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here.

Hope you enjoyed the show. We’ll see you again tomorrow. Please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions. And thanks for watching. We’ll see you next time. [tr:trw].

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