➡ Gerald Cilenti discussed various economic trends on November 7, 2024. He mentioned that gold prices fluctuated, the NASDAQ hit a new high, and Bitcoin was valued at $76,000 a coin. He also talked about the struggling French manufacturing sector, declining sales for BMW, Honda, Toyota, and KFC Pizza Hut, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy. Lastly, he admitted his incorrect prediction about Kamala Harris winning the 2024 presidential election, attributing the mistake to underestimating the importance of the economy to voters.
➡ Harris’s campaign suffered due to her inability to answer straightforward questions and her missteps in interviews. Voters were more concerned about the economy and immigration than her opponent’s flaws. Trump’s promises to boost the economy and lower prices appealed to voters, leading to his victory. Harris’s campaign failed to appeal to the working class, losing support from various demographics including women, college-educated voters, and voters without a four-year degree.

Hello, everybody. This is Gerald Cilenti, and it’s Thursday, November 7, 2024. And here is some of today’s trends in the news. On the market front, that gold got really hit boy, after the jump got in. It was down, it was up like $2,770. It went way down, but came back up a bit. And as we went on the air, it’s $2,707. That’s up $48. It’s still way up. It’s down. There it is. The Dow down a little bit today, but the NASDAQ closed at a new high. Everybody’s boomed up about Trump. The S&P was up a bit, 0.74%.

And how do you like that Bitcoin, huh? Yep, $76,000 a coin. And again, we’ve been bullish on Bitcoin and of course Trump put it into a whole other level. And Brent Crude is still hanging around the $75 a barrel level. Outlook is gloomier for French factories. French manufacturing produced less in September, threatening a bleak end to the year for the European manufacturing sector suffering from high energy bills and tougher competition from China. That’s according to the Wall Street Journal. It’s not tougher competition from China. That’s part of it. But the other part is the global economy is slowing down.

I mean, the facts are all there and particularly China. BMW, Honda, and Toyota profits hit by China sales fall. Oh yeah, there you go. This is from the Financial Times. So one’s blaming it on one and the other blaming it on the other. And the reality is that when they launched the COVID war in January 2020, Chinese Lunar New Year, three years of zero COVID policy, they slaughtered the economy as the global economy. Sales decline at KFC Pizza Hut hits young brands. Yep. But slow down all over. We’ve been reporting it from the top, from luxury brands, such as Hugo Boss Profits Fall on luxury downturn.

We’ve been writing how many weeks about this in the trend, how many months. So from top to bottom, the fish rots from the head down. Marks and Spencer warns of challenges. Yeah. Mark and Spencer reported profits ahead of expectation, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, down. And then Teledyne to acquire units of AEA back. Yep. Blackstone is taking retail landlord private. Again, one merger in acquisition after another. Bigs keep getting bigger and that’s in your trends journal week after week. So now onto the election. Told you that Harris was going to win. Okay.

We got it wrong. And I love these people that could, Oh, you got it wrong. Well, you know, fuck off. I’m a human being. You got it. Look at all the trend forecasters, shits that we get right. Why did I get this one wrong? Because when we called it, it was a different show and we had no idea that Harris would be so stupid as she ended up being. And we called some things wrong because we relied on the data that was being promoted because that’s what we do. We go to data that’s coming out and the data, and I’m going to go over it now to show you why we got it wrong.

This is our forecast from July 27th. This is right after she won the nomination. She’s flying in the polls. She’s way up. The trends journal would forecast that Joe Biden would step down and Kamala Harris would run for president in 2024. And now we forecast minus a wildcard such as a stock market crash. Harris will beat Trump in the race to the White House. Okay. Nope. There wasn’t a stock market crash, but now you look at the polls, when the people that went elected, that went to the polls, it was an economic crash for a vast majority of the people.

So we called it wrong, but we did it based on the data. And I’m going to get into that. And here’s where we, it didn’t happen. In our May 2022 trends journal, May 24th, we wrote our trend post Harris no doubt is thrilled to finally have a topic that resonates with Americans who are growing increasingly frustrated with the Biden administration. The numbers would go on that we go on to say that Harris will seize upon abortion rights because there seems to be only two things she can unite her front on Ukraine war support and pro abortion.

We go on to talk about abortion that NBC news noted that the public policy research Institute ran a national poll and found that 64% of Americans think abortion should be legal in all the most cases, which is an increase from 55% from 2010. The poll when broken down by political affiliation found that 87% of Democrats, 65% of independence and 37% of Republicans say abortion should be legal. And we go on to say that the Democrats did lousy in the 2022 midterms, even though Biden’s ratings were in the toilet and inflation was skyrocketing because of the abortion issue.

They did lousy. So we called it wrong. We thought abortion would be a major issue. It wasn’t. It goes back to that old saying, it’s the economy stupid. So when you look at the data and showing, you know, low unemployment numbers, or very high employment numbers, when you look at the equity markets keep going up, and you read the polls that were coming out, it didn’t show a financial disaster that the people are really feeling. And we called it wrong based on that. It was the economy. And the other thing is as my friend Mark Ferraro, the hairstylist of the stars used to say, or still does, Kamala Hilarious.

We had no idea she would be such a clown as she proved to be. And again, she beat Trump in the debate. She was still hard and Trump wouldn’t debate her. But then when she went on the view and other things, she spoke like a moron that she is. And again, all your shits that say, Oh, I’m supporting Harris go fuck off. I couldn’t stand as said from the beginning and I don’t support Trump. But if Trump does what he says he’s going to do, I will support him. I support him on all the issues except the Israeli issue.

But he says he’s going to be calling for a ceasefire there if he does it on pro-Trump. Because also I did an interview for Russian television this past Sunday and they asked me about Trump. I said, Trump will stop the Ukraine war. So I call it like it is. But again, all that money he got from the Jewish lobbyists, what will he do there? So going on. Why gold is going up? Again, because this is the financial time. Trump plans will fuel surge and inflation. If he were elected, incomes will skyrocket, inflation will vanish.

He said completely jobs will become roaring back, blah, blah, blah, blah. They warned the plans to enact sweeping tariffs to put millions of immigrants. And anyway, I support the departure of illegal immigrants and I support tariffs. And I would bring tariffs levels back to what they were in the 1960s and 19 early 1970s when America was still a manufacturing nation. And we only had now 11% of our GDP is manufacturing based and over two thirds is consumer spending. Here we go. Abortion rights gain ground but lose some electoral force. All right. That’s from the Wall Street Journal.

Abortion rights met their limit as an election twirl force Tuesday. Voters enshrined broad protections for the procedure across seven states, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Tuesday’s story was more sobering, one for the Democrats. Abortion was on the ballot in 10 states. Among those who think abortion should be legal, in all the most cases, some 30% of the people thought that voted for Trump because these ballots were on other states where they gave the people the right to vote. So 30%, that was opposite in the midterm elections. In Missouri, Trump won 58.5% of the vote while the state voted in favor of constitutional amendments protecting abortion rights.

So that ranked abortion as the third most important issue according to the AP vote cast survey. You ready? But that trails significantly behind the economy and immigration. So that’s where we called it wrong. We thought abortion would be a bigger issue. So did everybody else. It wasn’t. It’s the economy stupid. And don’t call me stupid. Fuck off. Make mistakes. We’re human beings. So take it easy. Look at our track record and you show me anybody with a track record like ours. We’re not perfect. I know, I know the ones you love are perfect and you are perfect too.

We’re human beings. And again, we go by the data and the data was false because before this happened, you go look at all the major media, the economy, and you look at who turned to Trump. It’s the lower class. That’s right. The plantation workers of slave landia, only the upper end voted for Harris. Again, clearly Trump was not viewed as a threat to abortion rights by enough voters, which is mind boggling. Tom Bonier, a democratic political strategist wrote on X. The other thing, this is the AP story as of now, Harris had won almost 67 million votes compared to approximately 81 million when Biden ran in 2020.

The difference of about 14 million. 14 million Democrats didn’t vote because of Harris’s stupidity. 14 million. You think that would have changed things? Five blunders that sank Harris campaign. This is Financial Times. When Harris appeared in early October on The View, she struggled to answer straightforward questions about how her presidency would differ. It’s one after thing after another. Then that clown, that guy waltz, when he did the debate against Vance, he called himself a knucklehead. And he said he was in China in Tiananmen Square, and he wasn’t. He lied. Minutes before Harris was due on a major speech at a campaign bill as a closing argument at a national mall in Washington, Biden dialed into the campaign call with a grassroots group, Voto Latino, and called Trump supporters garbage.

And then as we broadcast last week, Slick Willie, Clinton, who was our T-shirt back in 1992 when he ran, he’s in Michigan where she had to get the Muslim vote. And he goes on to say that God gave him the Holy Land, and that’s okay that those Palestinians are dead basically. So it’s one stupid thing after another that brought her down. And again, the stupidest thing was her. In her first interview as a Democratic candidate in early September, Harris was asked by a local TV reporter which specific policies she would propose to bring down the cost of living, rather than answering directly the Vice President launched into a nearly four minute long answer that started with a lengthy description of her own upbringing.

So dumber than shit, Harris. And what else do we have here? How did Trump win the race? This is the Wall Street Journal. American voters seeking a change in fortune bet on Trump’s promises to boost the US economy, lower prices and taxes, settle foreign conflicts, and stop the illegal immigration. Harris struggled, and then it goes on when she did all of these interviews. And the economy is everything election. Roughly 40% of voters said the economy was the top issue, far outstripping any other issue. And those voters favored Donald Trump 60% by 38%. Again, we did not think the economy would be the major issue because of the data.

And we misinterpreted it that we knew how bad the people are suffering. We talk about it all the time about real inflation, but we called it wrong thinking that there would be more women going out to vote for Harris, and more blacks that would go out for Harris, which did not happen. It went in the opposite direction. And we thought she’d get the Latino vote, and she did not. So that’s where we missed it. A whopping 96% of voters said high prices for gas and groceries and other goods were a factor in their vote, according to AP Votecast.

And then your credit cards, under Trump, they were 14%, 14.6% interest payments. Now they’re almost 22%. The July Wall Street Journal, the North Pole of adults found that 89% of respondents said owning a home is either essential or important, while only 10% of homeowners said they could afford one. So that’s where we got it wrong. And working class appeal spans races. This is from the Wall Street Journal. Black and Latino voters, particularly men, tilted more toward Trump this year than in 2020. The black support nearly doubling to 15%. And she’s black, so we thought she would get the vote.

And Latino support growing by 6 points to 841%. Hispanic voters opposed transgender-friendly policies. So again, this is anti-woke. It’s more of a populist movement, and these populist movements are taking place all over the world, and Trump is the populist candidate. Yeah, Harris campaign misread electorate. Voters cared more about immigration and economy than Trump’s flaws. The political ground that Harris fortified was expansive. Women as well as men drifted toward the Republican Party compared with their preferences in 2020. Harris gave up a bit of a party’s advantage among college-educated voters while losing substantially among voters without a four-year degree who account for almost 60% of the electorate, the working people.

So that’s where we got it wrong. Trump owes his political triumph to the bankruptcy of the Democratic Party, this is the World Socialist Organization, whose fixation with the identity politics, arrogant differences to the devastating impact of inflation on workers, living standards, and relenting support for war in Ukraine and genocide in Gaza prepared the ground for the election debacle. And Harris campaign was opposed to making any social appeal to the working class. They pitched their campaign to the most effluent voters, promoting hated warmongers like Liz Cheney. Yep, when she put her out there, what the hell is she doing putting this clown lady, who’s arrogant old man, penis Cheney, I can’t call him a dick Cheney, a warmongering bastard, and she brings him out there.

So she lost that core. Yep. So there you got that, some of it. Trump saw the largest increase in voter margin, vote margins in countries and counties where over 50% of the population is non-white. And exit polls showed that Harris lost Latino men nationally by a 54 to 44% margin, a reversal from 2020, when again, the Democrats won by a 59 to 39. So no, we didn’t know that was going to happen. So we got it wrong. But again, we’re going to see what’s going to go on between now and then, and particularly the Israel war.

So that’s it. You don’t get the numbers right all the time. We’re trend forecasters. We’re not, you know, gone. So take it easy. We got, we call it, we say we got it wrong and why we got it wrong. We overestimated certain data that didn’t play out the way we thought it would. And again, we said minus a wild card, such as a market crash. Well, the wild card was, it’s the economy, stupid. And that was not the wild card when we call this. And again, we had no idea that Harris, who we call the hilarious, would be as stupid as she was in these interviews.

And she lost a lot of support from that. So there we have it. Now, if Trump lives up to his words and does the deeds that he says he will, that’ll be great. That would be the kind of president that we need. Someone to bring peace on earth, make America more of a self-sustaining economy so that we don’t bring all this cheap crap in from other countries. And we rebuild our manufacturing base that Slick Willy Clinton and the others killed. And, and he said he’s going to do away with the income tax, which would be great.

And he said, no tax is social security. So if he does that, that’s great. But then the other side is saying the tax cuts are again going to go to the bigs, which he did in 2017 when according to the tax policy center, the 1%, the 1% got 64% of the tax breaks. So keep supporting us, get a trends journal, read history before it happens. Again, got this wrong, but we get a lot of stuff right. And you show me one magazine, it’s called, oh, EVs go FU. Oh, that’s going to be another one.

That was one of our top trends. Oh, nobody’s talking about the banks going bust. No, no, we won’t talk about that. Oh, and gold. And again, hit that click button there. You know, keep spreading the word. We’re doing everything we can. And again, I did an interview with judge Napolitano yesterday. Check it out. Cilenti and the judge. Thanks for tuning in. And again, with all my heart and all my soul, I wish Trump the very, very best. And don’t dig the cat. Don’t like him. If he stands by his words and does what he campaigns, promises, I will support him a hundred percent.

Thanks for tuning in. [tr:trw].

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