The Latest From Michael Oliver On Silvers Volatility

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Summary

➡ Gold and silver prices are rising due to structural changes in the market. Mining stocks are recovering from a long period of low performance. Silver’s value compared to gold is still low, but it’s expected to increase. Hong Kong and Shanghai are creating a system that could make gold a more important part of the global financial system.

Transcript

Gold surged towards $46.55 last night, while silver held $92.70 as metals extended a structurally-driven advance. Michael Oliver’s MSA framework argues that mining equities are emerging from decade-long suppression. Silver remains historically restrained versus gold, and weekly volatility reflects acceleration rather than exhaustion. Relative breakouts at XAU versus S&P, leadership from silver miners and improving platinum ratios point to a sector-wide re-rating and remains early in its cycle. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey. Where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day.

And now, here’s Vince. Good morning everyone. I’m Vince Lancey, this is the Golfix Market Rundown. I’m Martin Luther equity. Domestic markets are closed. Global markets are, however, open for the holiday. Today, gold may have just taken a decisive step towards becoming collateral. Hong Kong and the Shanghai Gold Exchange are building a cross-border clearing corridor that could transform gold into a true balance sheet liquidity instrument. It is about rewinding the plumbing of global finance, and it may explain, at least in part, last night’s price action. Second, Michael Oliver. Gold opened last night at $46.55, silver near $93, and the message from Michael Oliver in his weekly report was blunt.

Do not confuse volatility with weakness. Miners are breaking decade-long bases. Silver is still historically restrained versus gold, and weekly pullbacks are being framed as buy signals by him, not reversals. This is not a late cycle melt. According to MSA, this is the structural phase of a new regime. There’s the home page. Michael Hartnett in the middle, top right-hand side, silver reckoning that’s been here a little bit. Founders, we just sent that out. It’s actually a particular point of pride. We’ll be sharing a version of that with Premium soon. It gives the origins of gold fix, why we decided to make this more of a permanent idea.

All right, let’s do the markets. Tenure yields are closed. The bond market is closed for $22.7. Dollars down 22, the S&P 500 is trading, although the market’s not really open. Down 70, the NASDAQ is now $134. The VIX is $18.90. Up three, well, that’s Friday. Gold is up 74 at 46.69. Silver is 93.14, up $3.70. That’s 1.62% and 3.44%. I’m going to give you the comparison to China now. Shanghai last traded $99. When the market opened last night, the Shanghai US spread was about $10 to $11, which is a sign of a market that needs to rally more.

As the market rallies more, this spread should start to consolidate. They should converge in price as the market goes up. Indeed, at least on my screen here, silver is actually down $1 in Shanghai while it is up $3 in New York. You can assume that as this ebbs and flows, it should converge higher if Chinese price is being projected onto the world. If it converges lower, then China demand is being satisfied. Right now, look at it like this. The price is $100, and let’s see how fast the US price can get there.

Or will the Chinese price come down to meet the US price? And the twain shall meet. Okay, moving on. Copper up 25 basis points, WTI down 25 natural gas, up $0.39, $0.355, up $0.39, 12.48%. I have to look at that. That might be a rollover, but it’s also probably weather related. There’s going to be some weather coming soon. Maybe Europe. Bitcoin down 500. Bitcoin is definitely gold 2.0 now. Can’t get out of its own way when everything else is rallying. Disappointing. Ethereum 3325, Palladium up 7, Platinum up 28, gold silver down a point 50.

Half of what it was six months ago. Soybeans up 37 basis points, corn up 1.1%, and wheat up over 1% as well. Okay, let’s get to what we’re here for. Gold surged towards $46.55 last night while silver held $92.70 as metals extended a structurally driven advance. Michael Oliver’s MSA framework argues that mining equities are emerging from decade long suppression. Silver remains historically restrained versus gold and weekly volatility reflects acceleration rather than exhaustion. Relative breakouts in XAU versus the S&P, leadership from silver miners, and improving platinum ratios point to a sector-wide re-rating and remains early in its cycle.

That’s in MSA update. Gold opens 46.55, silver 92.70. Next, another point of pride. HK, SGE, Hong Kong, Shanghai deal advances gold’s collateral repo path. Hong Kong and the Shanghai gold exchange will launch a cross-border clearing system creating a central infrastructure for custody recognition, delivery certainty, and settlement efficiency. Officials frame the move as market development, but its strategic impact is much deeper. Interoperable vaults, which we identified in May, and clearing corridors, which we kind of labeled in a gold corridor, allowing gold to function as institutional collateral, not merely a reserve asset.

So it’s not just a reserve asset as an off lane to save your money for the bricks. It’s going to be a monetizable, leverageable asset for growing economies. The agreement directly supports gold’s evolution into repo eligible liquidity within emerging multi-polar financial architecture. Hot tip to Eric Young, brother from a different mother. This is about repo and HQLI, and it just makes it inevitable. News and analysis, founder special, gold bull is anti-bubble. We mentioned that already. Goldman, how to implicitly handle silver gains. This is an institutional recommendation to their clients. Essentially talking about get long the gold silver ratio, not short silver, not long gold, get long the gold silver ratio.

And I don’t care if they’re wrong today. It doesn’t matter. The point is silver has run relative to gold and as a relative value basis, if you’re long silver and you’re nervous and you say, Oh my God, it’s gone up so much. How much more can it go up? And you have a lot of money on the table, but you don’t want to roll your silver into silver miners. Cause let’s face it. Silver’s trading 93 bucks. Miners are pricing silver at like what? 37 bucks. I have no idea, but it’s, it’s ridiculous.

Well, we’ll be doing that as well. BMA declares new gold bull. We say new gold bull because they’ve been bullish for a while. Uh, Michael Hartnett is however, giving a new reason to own gold. And maybe he has had a little bit of an effect on the market. Silver through the HSBC lens founders first look and go fix PM audio recap. We want to mention again, Eric, uh, he says famous Hong Kong hedge fund manager and investor Chia Chang. Hi, he, I’m not sure how to say it tells the public that the only buys physical gold, but he doesn’t sell it during the current and star changes to the global financial system.

I look at this guy and I say, where the hell has he been for five years? And I’m wondering China master propagandists that they are, you know, propaganda is a career choice. They’re kind of like marketing here. I wonder why a hedge fund manager in Hong Kong, Hong Kong is very financial. They’re not physical at all. Hong Kong is like America, very financially oriented. Why would they start unleashing all these successful people talking about gold? I don’t know. Maybe Eric has an answer for us on that. Let’s take a look at the charts.

Let’s start with silver. All right. So my level was 93 70 for my measured move mission accomplished. And isn’t it interesting how we’re pausing here? I mean, we’re on the highs, but we’re pausing. I wonder if we get another bull flag. I’m going to break a bit out above it. Or maybe we get another dip scoop and run again, dip and scoop or scoop and dip or whatever. Bend and snap. However you look at it. Gold. Oh, I had Polly up on gold and I liked what it showed me. See, I saw this as another bull flag up flag.

And then above here, you want to be long. Polly has a level. Yeah. Polly didn’t have a level above here. Maybe they didn’t. We took it out. Oh yeah. Polly’s level was here. Polly’s level was the yellow line and above the yellow line you’re long again. And that’s it. That’s what I’ve been saying that you think I’m being negative or pessimistic. When I say to you, you don’t get long silver until it makes a new high because momentum people are just not in this market yet. And you need them to get in the market for it to be a top, at least a short-term top.

Or evidence that the COMEX is just broken, right? I mean, people are consistently saying, oh, the momentum players aren’t in this market yet. And they’re right. That’s because they’re in China now. The COMEX is the old mall. As pricing goes east, following volumes, so does speculative open interest and information. I know, Vince, have a great day. Well, thanks for watching this morning’s markets and metals with Vince Lancy. We sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here. Hope you enjoyed the show and we’ll see you again tomorrow. Please note that this video is not intended as legal, licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only.

Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions. And thanks for watching. [tr:trw].

See more of Arcadia Economics on their Public Channel and the MPN Arcadia Economics channel.

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