➡ The Endgame Investor’s Silver Report, sponsored by Kootenai Silver, discusses significant shifts in the gold to S&P 500 ratio, indicating a potential major change in the market. The report also covers the impact of tariffs, the 10-year yield challenging major trend lines, and the continued flow of gold and silver from London and Switzerland to New York despite tariffs. Additionally, it highlights Kootenai Silver’s potential value increase if it can sell its discoveries to a major miner. Lastly, the report presents a detailed analysis of various charts and trends, suggesting that gold is starting to outperform stocks.
➡ The article discusses the relationship between the stock market and gold, suggesting that the value of stocks in gold terms has remained relatively stable despite the stock market’s rise. It also mentions the potential impact of tariffs, suggesting they could worsen the situation. The article further discusses the flow of gold and silver bullion into New York, the decline in gold open interest, and the potential for a banking crisis. The author believes that a significant transfer of purchasing power from stocks to gold could occur, leading to a volatile market situation.
➡ Kootenai Silver, known as KOOYF in the U.S. and KTN in Canada, is the topic of discussion. The speaker has a favorite t-shirt, nicknamed Golden Boy, that they’ve owned for six years. They’ll continue the conversation next week.

A 24-year triangle technical pattern. These things are huge and it means a fundamental shift is occurring right now. It’s not too late to get on board. This thing is going to accelerate fast. Come on, let’s gold! Well, I don’t know about gold. Oh, that’s gold, baby. That’s gold, Sherry. Gold! Hey guys, Raf here from The Endgame Investor with this week’s Silver Report, brought to you by Kootenai Silver, symbol K-O-O-Y-F in the U.S. and symbol K-T-N in Canada. We’ve got, once again, a lot to talk about this week. A lot of things are going on.

We’re going to talk about tariffs. We’re going to talk about big 14-year trend lines that have broken in the S&P to gold ratio. 24-year triangles that appear to have broken in the same ratio. We’re at a critical pivot point in the gold to S&P 500 ratio, going back to 1929 and 1974. These charts are uncanny and what they are showing, and they are showing that we are at a major pivot point here. Something big is about to happen. Something big is already happening. You can just see it. You can feel it. Things are changing. Oh my God.

It’s changing. Do you see? Do you see? Do you see? Yes, yes, I see. Do you see? And what was it? Silver plunged by 7% yesterday, but gold stocks were up. A lot of crazy things are happening. I’m going to show you a shocking linear chart going back to 1870 of the size of the bubble and what happens when the bubble pops. Remember when bubbles pop, when financial bubbles pop, real assets do not change. All that happens is a shift of purchasing power. You will see how massive that shift of purchasing power will be this time compared to 1929, which was nothing compared to what we were about to experience, and you’ll see this very graphically.

And about tariffs, how tariffs made things a lot worse in 1930 with the Smoot-Holly tariffs. I’ll show you the effect on the stock market, on the Dow or as the S&P. I’m not sure which one it is when the Smoot-Holly tariff was passed and that was scrapped, I think four years later in 1934 after people realized that it didn’t work and it just made things worse. And yes, I understand what Trump is trying to do. He’s trying to get other countries to reduce their tariffs because other countries tariffs on US products are very, very high.

And of course, that’s bad, but I don’t think putting reciprocal tariffs on other countries is going to help. I think it’s just going to make things worse. Who knows? We’ll see if his goals are achieved. The 10-year yield is challenging major trend lines as well as yields fall. The yield curve is re-inverting again. And the last thing we’ll talk about is that though the tariffs have excluded bullion from the products that will be tariffs, meaning they get an exemption that has not stopped the flow of gold and silver from London or Switzerland and where it’s coming from into New York, those flows continue.

We will see if they will continue to continue as this news filters down that bullion is exempt from tariffs. And before we get to the slides, this silver report is brought to you by Kootenai Silver. Just to show you a quick chart of Kootenai, how it behaves in volatility, especially silver volatility like this. It doesn’t really react that much because the value in Kootenai has little to do with the silver price. I mean, it has a lot to do with the silver price once silver gets beyond, let’s say, 30, 35, 40, and then it changes the value of the company.

And these swings in the low 30s doesn’t really have much to do with it. What we will really give the company a lot of value is if it can offload some of its discoveries onto a major minor for a premium for a profit. And I think it might be able to do that once silver hits in the 40s and they continue developing their resources. And according to CEO James McDonald, that could be anywhere between 4 and 18 months from now, depending on how fast things go. You can see here that since 2022, we’re basically in a range where towards the middle of that range now, if you draw a line about 64 cents going back to three years, it hasn’t really changed that much.

And I don’t expect it to until fundamental for the company change when their discoveries go up a notch. And if we go here to one of the latest pieces of news, this is about the Colombo project. I’m looking at the bold here, a high-grade intercept of one of half meters, grading 1.455 kilograms of silver per ton of rock was returned from a barite quartz veinlet hosted within diorite from a depth of 219.2 meters downhill. That is a huge grade of silver. There’s a lot of good discoveries here. The current drill program. The next paragraph is nearing the end of its current 20,000 meters, which commenced in 2020-24.

The current program forms part of a 50,000 meter stage drill program was designed to provide sufficient data to allow calculation of a maiden mineral resource estimate. So we’ll keep tracking this development, these developments for kutine. And we’ll see how it does as silver moves up from the low 30s up into the mid and hopefully the 40s pretty soon after this whole tariff situation works itself out. And with that, we’re going to get on with the slides and believe me, they are exciting this week. For the first slide today, we have a pretty exciting chart from stockcharts.com.

And we see here, this is the S&P 500 to gold ratio. Usually I show the opposite one, but this time I wanted to show the inverse S&P 500 to gold ratio. The lower it goes, the higher gold is valid relative to stocks. And we can see here that since 2011, this was the gold high in 2011 at $1,923. We can see that stocks have been outperforming gold since then. And we established a trend line at 2020 when gold made a moonshot relative to stocks. Gold was also going down here, but not relative to stocks. It was going up relative to stocks during that March 2020 crash.

We can see here that this trend line has been broken decisively. Not only that, but we have a cross of the 50-week moving average below the 200-week moving average over here and the moving averages. And this is what? This is a 14-year trend line. So gold is starting to outperform stocks. And I think it will continue to do so pretty quickly, pretty handily as we move forward in time, which is always because none of us have a time machine. But anyway, we’re going to go to the next slide here. This is the inverse of that chart.

We can see here, this is the gold to S&P 500 ratio. A 24-year triangle is breaking out. We see here that the triangle was established in 2000, in late 2000, at the absolute bottom for gold at around $252 an ounce. We can see here that the triangle was bracketed at the 2011 high over here. That’s what we saw on the previous chart. And touch here, as we saw before, at the 2020 high of gold relative to stocks. And this has converged the bottom line here and the top line here has converged on a triangular point. And we have a decisive breakout over here of this triangle, a 24-year triangle, technical pattern.

These things are huge and it means a fundamental shift is occurring right now. It’s not too late to get on board. This thing is going to accelerate fast. Now, if we go even further back, we can see this amazing thing that I just discovered. We are at a point in the gold to the S&P 500 to gold ratio, another way of looking at it. We’re at a point here where we are approaching a pivot line that we have not reached yet. We’re at 1.81 right now, and this is at about 1.6 something. I don’t know exactly, but it’s pretty close.

We hit it in 2020. We hit it in about 2018 or something like that. And also, we can see that this was the point in 1974. If you take the trend line from stocks low gold high in 1940s during World War II, and you draw a trend line from there from 1950 of stocks relative to gold, and the higher this is, the lower gold is, once we hit this point, that’s when stocks started to collapse and gold really started to climb relative to stocks when we hit the 1980 low over here. Once we crossed this point, it was gold really outperforming stocks heavily and fast.

And this was the same point that we hit in 1929 at the peak, the same point that we were in in 1960, the same point that we hit in 2018 and in 2020, and it’s the same point that we were approaching now. So, when this line is hit and we can threaten this trend line from 1980 to 2011, meaning, remember, the lower this is, the higher gold is relative to stocks. If we can test this trend line after beating this checkpoint over here, this pivot point, then we will be on the way, from a technical perspective at least, to the 1980 lows, being the 1980 highs of gold relative to stocks.

And now, this is a monster chart over here. This is not exaggerated in any way. This is a linear chart of the Dow to the gold ratio, meaning how much the Dow is worth in gold terms, meaning you can see that it hasn’t really changed much at all relative to the dollar price of stocks, which is all basically inflation. You can see when did these two lines start to diverge in 1971, when the last vestige of the gold window was closed. So, we see here that stocks go higher and higher and higher and higher, whereas stocks in gold terms stay pretty much the same.

They were elevated here significantly, but you can barely see it. But this is a significant devaluation of gold relative to stocks. But we can see we’re going back down to the historical levels here. And now, if you compare the bubble here, and I’m going to make this point, and it’s going to sound kind of scary, but this is serious. So, this is the 1929 bubble. You can see I zoomed in over here. The blue line is the Dow to gold ratio, and the black line is just the Dow. And you can see that they were still basically the same over here.

This is the size of the bubble in 1929, whereas relative to that, this is the size of the bubble now. So, what happens when this thing pops? Remember that, let’s say, what is this level now? It says 17,000. Well, whatever it is, it doesn’t matter what the number is. So, this number where stocks are at now represents what people believe the value of their portfolios can purchase them if they liquidated them all today. People believe that they have all this purchasing power. Obviously, if everyone sells at the same time, then this number is going to go way, way down, and most people will not have that purchasing power.

So, either way, purchasing power is going to go from here, from this point in the popping of the bubble, down to here, gold stocks valued in gold terms. That’s going to be the reconvergence of here to here, and the returns of gold as money. So, basically, all of the purchasing power that people imagine they have that can acquire all the property in the United States and abroad will go into the gold holders. And you’ll see this thing kind of converge in on itself, and there will be a massive transfer of purchasing power from here to the top to the bottom over here.

That is what we are preparing for. We’re going to talk about tariffs for a minute. Tariffs make things much worse, you can see. I marked here June 16th, I think it was June 17th, 1930, when the Smooth Holly Tariff Act was passed to try to protect American industry during the Great Depression. It did not work because other countries raised tariffs in response, and it made things a lot worse. You can see the stock market continued to fall as the bubble continued into summer 1932. The Smooth Holly Tariff Act did not accomplish a damn thing.

But we’re trying it again, and I understand that Trump’s goals are slightly different. I’m not accusing him of, let’s say, ignoring the Smooth Holly Tariff Act history, but I do think history is going to repeat here, or rhyme. I don’t think these tariffs are going to succeed or get any countries to reduce their tariffs maybe one or two, but overall it’s going to make things worse. Hopefully I’m wrong. We’ll see. Maybe his gambit will play off here. I really don’t know for sure. 10-year yield breaks below the 50-week moving average. Some trend lines are threatened.

This is the 10-year yield. If I drew a few trend lines here, this is more of an art, not a science drawing trend lines. You can draw the red trend line that goes back to 2020 here, and that basically ends at the 200-week moving average for rates. Rates would have to get significantly lower from here. They could reach it, but you can see here that the 50-week moving average has been broken decisively to the downside breaking through. That means that yields are headed lower, treasuries are headed higher in a flight to safety, and I think this is because as the default position for hedge funds as they sell stocks is not cash.

It’s rather U.S. treasuries, so when they sell stocks they buy U.S. treasuries. You have this knee-jerk reaction of treasuries rising and yields falling as the stock market, as valuation of bubble stocks, starts to deflate. You see here this trend line is threatening to break. If we draw it from 2022, this trend line is not threatening to break yet. If we draw it from 2020, we’ll see what happens here, but yields for now look like they are on their way lower. We’ll see what happens. Tariffs exclude bullion. So one of the theories as to why there has been a huge flow of bullion, of gold and silver bullion into New York, from London and Switzerland, or wherever they’re coming from, it was theorized, a lot of talk on Twitter, X, or whatever, that it’s because of potential tariffs on bullion.

So now that we know that bullion is excluded from the tariffs, from the Trump tariffs, we would expect that these flows will stop. But they haven’t yet. They might stop in the next weeks to come. Maybe this is a hangover of momentum. I don’t know yet, but so far, the flows continue, which suggests that these flows into New York are not because of tariff fears. Silver crashes, but the silver flows into the Comac continues. Silver sold off about 7% yesterday, 6%, 7%. I remember exactly. It continues to sell off today, but the silver flows, the daily flows, they continue.

Another 2.75 million ounces of registered silver flowed in. The overall change, 2.36 million ounces flowed in yesterday, the day of the tariff announcement. Maybe this is a hangover. We’ll see. I think the flows are going to continue because I don’t think tariffs are really the cause here. We’ll see if I’m going to be right in the next week or two. Gold deliveries exceed February pace. We can see here, this is the all-time record for gold deliveries from February of this year, 76,500 something. It was by the end of the month. And we’re here at 50,929 deliveries for April 4th.

And we can see that the equivalent over here, what was it? February 4th or February 3rd or 4th, something like that. We’re out doing that pace. You can see this is two bars past the month line over here. And this is also two bars past the month line. It’s a little bit squinty to see here, but we are exceeding the pace of the record deliveries that we had in February. And I think we will find a new record this month for gold deliveries. Gold open interest, as for the price of gold, what’s happening now is that open interest is now down to 486,000.

This says 493,000, but this is on a one-day lag. I checked the CME numbers recently and it’s 486,000. So I erased until we get to about 486,000 at that black line. You can see we have gone below the March low in open interest. We can get a little bit lower here so the gold price could continue to fall, maybe below 3,000, trigger a little bit of stops, but from there it will rebound very quickly. Once we get to 450,000, I don’t think we’re going to get much lower than that. 400,000 is an extreme low.

I don’t think we’re going to get there. But what I’m saying is that open interest in gold is already at depressed levels, which means the descent in the dollar price can’t go on for that much longer. It can continue, but not in an extreme sense, or at least for any protracted amount of time. And with that, we’re going to see what’s happening next week. It’s sure to be exciting. Even what’s happening today, Friday, the markets look very volatile. We still have the final banking crisis ahead of us as the Treasury’s bank account winds down.

It’s about $300 billion left. And once we have that final banking crisis, the printing is going to be extreme. And from there, I think we’re going to head on a beeline to the endgame. I think the volatility has already begun. We have echoes of the 1920s, 1930s with the tariff act or a tariff executive action, whatever the hell it is, happening in the middle of what looks like a deflating stock market bubble. The effects on gold are going to be extreme. I don’t know what’s going to happen in dollar terms, but in terms of purchasing power, you saw that graph.

All purchasing power that is currently, not all of it, but most of it that is currently housed in stock market portfolios is going to be transferred into money. And from there, we will be at the endgame. This is Rafa, the in-game investor with this week’s Silver Report, brought to you by Kootenai Silver, symbol K-O-O-Y-F in the U.S. and symbol K-T-N in Canada. I’ll see you guys next week. Six years I’ve had this t-shirt. It’s my best one. I call him Golden Boy. Touch Golden Boy. No, thanks. Yeah. [tr:trw].

See more of Rafi Farber on their Public Channel and the MPN Rafi Farber channel.