➡ TD’s Dan Galley suggests that the squeeze on physical silver has shifted to an oversupply as stocks rebuild, which could lead to price stabilization in the mid-40s by 2026. Meanwhile, platinum and palladium are seen as undervalued, with gold remaining a key hedge against economic stress. Changes in market structure could unlock silver’s buying power in India, potentially impacting a billion people. The overall market structure for silver is changing, with a higher floor price and increased caution in releasing metal supplies.

TD’s Dan Galley argues that Silver’s physical squeeze has transitioned into an inventory saturation as LBMA stocks rebuild sharply, distorting liquidity and pointing to price normalization in the mid-40s, sometime in 26. Welcome to this morning’s markets and metals with Vince Lansing, where each morning he brings you the precious metals news to get you ready for your day. Now, here’s Vince. Good morning. I’m Vince Lansing. This is the Goldfix Market Rundown. It’s $7.50. We have two stories today. There’s the front page, lower right-hand corner. TD’s Dan Galley says the silver squeezes over, inventories are flooding back, and the real asymmetric upside for 2026 is now shifting toward platinum and palladium, while gold remains the dominant macro hedge.

Top right-hand side, this India unlocks Silver’s buying power for a billion people without needing to sell it. This is a market structure change and it’s very significant. Before we do the markets and do our thing, we’d like to draw your attention to a post-personal pride here. This month, Goldfix work was featured in Mark Faber’s famous gloom doom and boom newsletter, which we’ve been reading for years. The piece was a collaboration with Jan Bultenswiler of Von Graert’s gold with contributions from Simon Hunt as well. We’ve attached a PDF of that piece right here with a little extra something at bottom.

If you’re wondering what that’s about, that’s Jan’s framing of the vaults that we announced and described in May, in combination with the network for gold. And there it is, front-running the new goldback currency system. And thank you to Mark Faber. We’ve been big fans for a long time. All right, let’s take a look at the markets. 10-year yields are unchanged bid. The dollar is down to SP 500 is up 9. Nasdaq is up 60. The VIX is up almost a percentage point. Gold is up 16 at 4213. Silver is 5848 up 20. Copper is 536 up less than a penny.

WTI 5930 down 88. Natural gas 46 down 25. I guess the weather’s over, at least the way they’re looking at it. Bitcoin up 1300, catching a bid consistently now. Ethereum 3100 and change. Platinum up 11. Platinum up 29. Gold silver 72. Bottoming for now. Let’s see what happens there. Soybeans down 5. Corn unchanged bid. And wheat up a penny and a half. OK, first story. TD’s Dan Galley argues that silver’s physical squeeze has transitioned into an inventory saturation as LBMA stocks rebuild sharply, distorting liquidity and pointing to price normalization in the mid-40s, sometime in 26.

In contrast, platinum palladium appears structurally underpriced, supported by rising U.S. vehicle density, delayed scrap recovery and persistent mining underinvestment. Creating multi-year deficit risks. Gold remains the core beneficiary of monetary stress in their 2026 review, with TD targeting $4400 trading top into early 2026. Quick reminder, it was Dan Galley, who we’ve been reading for like three years, who alerted people to the slow motion silver squeezes, what we call it, or the silver squeeze you can buy into. And we have a long piece, not piece, but we put some serious thoughts into our commentary on that.

And that’s in the post that went out premium sense. We would also note that he’s seeing things from the fundamental point of view and the fundamentals. And by fundamentals, I mean specifically the availability of silver going into the London vault has turned a corner. And there’s been more metal coming in there now. And the market needs time to digest that. So right now, physical demand isn’t a problem. This is me talking. Physical demand isn’t a problem. You’re like, well, of course it is there. They don’t have any metal. No, no, listen. When the CME shut down and the metal was moved from registered to eligible, unavailable for delivery, that was everyone working together in the U.S.

against possibly a rogue actor saying, no, you’re not taking metal unless we say you’re taking metal. And that buys time for the LBMA to get their metal back. And when you have successfully calmed the market down, which we haven’t done yet, when you successfully calm a market down that’s in shortage, several things happen. One, you get a very volatile chop and then it baselines. Maybe you have a big dip, but it baselines at a higher level. Two, you see the lease rates do not go up. So while the wear of backwardation and while there’s a tightness in metal, it’s not a tightness because it’s not available.

It’s not a tightness because it’s not there anymore. It’s a tightness because they don’t want it to be available. It’s not available. They want to catch up. The whole market structure is changing for silver. So the next thing that happens is you see silver float in. And then finally, the shorts, in this case, the LBMA member banks that did not have or were not comfortable making delivery, they have to come to terms with the fact that they must pay a tax every month. And that month is that taxes the backwardation. They are rolling their shorts, calming people who want delivery but don’t need delivery and saying we’ll take care of you in 60 days, we’ll take care of you in 90 days.

And that’s the plan. That’s the plan. It’s happened before. You’re trying to keep to their credit in a market that’s breaking. The LBMA is broken. It’s broken. And in an attempt to make sure it doesn’t spread to the US, which is what was beginning to happen, they’re drawing the line. And the line is anybody who wants metal, this is my opinion, anybody who wants metal, back off. We’ll give it to you in 30 days. We got plenty of metal. We just need to get it where it needs to go. Don’t give me the it’s heavy shit.

That’s not it. It’s they have to get it. They have to source it. I believe that’s what’s going on now. So am I bullish silver? Of course. Am I long silver? Of course. Do I think there has been a real short squeeze? No, there has not. We haven’t had a short squeeze. People, we haven’t had a short squeeze. We’ve had tightness. The correct framing is tightness. A squeeze is when you see what happened on the LMA. That’s a squeeze. They do not want that to happen because finally, an adult has said, wait a minute, these are important markets for the global reserve currency.

These are global markets for our presentation to the world of how stable we are. We can’t default on delivery. And so they’re doing everything they can, in my opinion, to make this right. And the result of that is if you underestimate the power of governments and industry working together to protect a franchise, in this case, Western Hemisphere global dollar dominance. Well, then I think you’re making a big mistake. So right now, you could say it’s going to go to $60. It could go to $60. It could. But I go back to something I’ve said a million times.

They do not want it to get there fast. They don’t want someone who’s patiently waiting for metal 30 days from now to say, shit, I can’t wait anymore. I need to get it. They don’t want that. And the banks will pay a tax every month in backwardation while the metals being sourced. And that’s the price of doing business. They’ve had it good for 30 years. They can handle a little pain for six months. But when this is over, when this is over, it won’t be over. The can is still being kicked down the road. They’re just going to be a lot greedier and stingier on giving up their metal.

And that means they are covering shorts in a rally now. That means the floor on silver has been raised. The roof was already raised. But now the floor on silver has been raised. The structure is changing, which brings me to the next story to that point. India unlocks silver’s collateral buying power. Now, that’s not a title you’ll read anywhere else, but that’s what happened there. The Reserve Bank of India, India, India, listen to me, India will allow banks and non-bank financial institutions to extend loans against pledged silver jewelry and coins beginning April 1st, 2026. Formally expanding collateralized household credit beyond gold for the first time under a unified regulatory framework.

This is extremely significant. I don’t care how big a dollar amount it is or a rupee amount is. I don’t care. This is significant. This is saying to people that own jewelry. You don’t have to sell it to get the money to buy food. You don’t have to sell it to get the money to buy stocks. This is the government which has been trying to get Indians to surrender their gold and surrender their silver or what have you for years with gold bonds and what have you. We need to unlock the power, the cash value of silver and gold, and we should be able to do that because these metals are not going to corrode.

They’re not going to rust. They’re not going to be destroyed. So let’s use them as collateral and let’s loan people money. Now there’s risk. We’re not going to get into that right now, but the reality of it is this. When you are an Indian middle class, you know, such as it is, and you hear that you can take a loan against it and you want to give a Christmas present or whatever the Hindu Christmas is, you’re going to give them silver now. Why? Because you’re giving them money. You’re justifying the behavior of centuries where people wear jewelry, not just because it’s pretty, but because your wealth is portable that way.

And now you can actually monetize your wealth. This is a massive change. And it will lead to a disaster down the road. We’ll talk about that another time. But what it means now is I’m less likely to sell my silver to get money. I’m more likely to buy silver than I could borrow, but your silver becomes a savings account. Everyone opens a savings account. India’s approach is different than China’s. India’s approach is much more grassroots. And now I’ll just zoom out a little bit. Why would they be doing that? They just bought a shit ton of silver, didn’t they? They’ve been buying it for a long time.

Why would they do this then? Well, if you’re encouraging the bottom up to monetize their silver and you’re changing the rules top down in China as they had done, you can own a gold account. Well, in the middle, there’s going to be product and that product we continue to believe it will be at the government level. Well, HQLA repo for gold and maybe silver. I really can’t see silver. I don’t see silver going that route, even though I would love it to happen. It’s very risky to do that. But nevertheless, as collateral, I agree. But as money, dangerous.

Well, as much as I love it. And from the bottom up, the Chinese have been told, yeah, you can own gold. Yeah, you can buy gold. Yeah, you can store gold. The Indians. Yeah, you can own gold. You can buy gold bonds. So, you know, you can do it with silver, too. And you’ve just unlocked billions and billions of dollars. And it’s probably, you know what it probably means? You should buy silver by Indian stocks. You shouldn’t do whatever I’m saying. I’m just saying that’s the idea. I mean, the government, right? Silver won’t go down in price because they won’t sell it.

But now Indian stocks will be stabilized because people will borrow. Now, you know how this ends. This ends five years from now when everyone is over leveraged on silver and gold and silver and gold crap out. Loans get called and delivery. That’s the end. That’s the end game. We’re at the beginning of this now, right? OK, this is how it works, right? And then the government ends up with everyone’s silver. Not a coincidence. Anyway, major story in market structure terms, even if it doesn’t mean shit now. We did a lot of work this weekend and we want to just spend a minute just going through the stories that we think.

Well, there was a lot of important news we think. I mean, metals have been important right now. So first of all, just going to read a sentence from the top here. Breaking news, BRICS launch, gold-backed unit. That is the private entity that is behind the BRICS, which is backed by five nations, which are in the BRICS hemisphere, for lack of a better word. And it’s almost official that this is an official. It’s almost an official product. And it works. Just a basket. JPM says platinum higher for longer, consistent with what Gali is saying. Copper up seven and a half percent in two weeks.

Copper climbs, tariff, warrior wall again. That’s based on the fact that as we get more of our finished goods in here, as we get those cathodes, well, you should expect tariffs to go up because we can put that wall up again because we don’t want people taking our copper or selling or selling to us. J.P. Morgan, gold is over 2026. They say 5000 is not a problem. 6000 if with a nod to the Bank of America statement, and I think ours as well, although I don’t think they read us, that they talked about that central banks that have over 20% gold are still buying.

Why is that? Well, that’s because the number is 30%. They’re going to 30%. And central banks with under 10% have just begun buying. So what they’re saying is central bank buying is broadening. Other banks are doing it now. And if that continues, 6000 is not a problem. Getting closer to that Jeffrey’s number. And building capital gains, taxes, secure supply. This is an idea, a piece that we wrote, essentially doing some math on how to get the banks, their silver and gold back, how to secure the country’s supply chains, how to augment the payment chain, the dollar, and how to put a floor on their gold.

And that is to, and silver, and that is to remove capital gains taxes which are odorous, specifically intentionally too high, because over the years they didn’t want anyone buying gold so it’s 30% if you buy gold and you hold it for more than one year it’s like 37% if you buy gold and you sell it within one year so that’s what needs to happen, you want to you want some silver and gold in this country, you got to unlock the capital gains. You got to remove it. That’s the way to do it. Or you can confiscate it.

That didn’t go so well last time. Flowshow metals chart breakout engaged very light treatment their founders bricks crossed the Rubicon. And this one here Jesse Livermore. This is a, we gave a long personal commentary about we heard something that Jesse Livermore had said about sizes everything meaning I don’t care how good your system is. If you’re trading the wrong volumes, you’ll fail, and it reminded us of some important lessons that we had we shared that with founders as well, and from QT to QE what the F happened. That’s our analysis our commentary on why the Fed switched.

They weren’t satisfied at all with their purchases they just had to end it early. That’s our opinion. Okay, data on deck it’s Fed Week, Wednesday Fed market data. I think it’s a light data week job openings job claims couple other things I’m not really sure of. There’s the Mark Faber ETF ETF listen to me there’s the Mark Faber report, and that silver’s down nine cents now. Okay, you could say it’s volatile and don’t worry about it, or you could say it’s volatile and capped. Okay, so is there a floor. Yeah, there’s a floor they’re buying it, but it’s volatile and it’s capped right now I’m Vince.

Have a great day. Thank you. [tr:trw].

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