$100.00! Do you understand? I drink your water. I drink it up. Every day, I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! Don’t bully me, Daniel! Did you think your song and dance and your superstition would help you, Eli? I told you I would eat you. We’re friends. I told you I would eat you. We’re brothers. We’re brothers. We’re brothers. Hey guys, Raffia from The Endgame Investor, and there’s a lot of controversy going on about whether silver is in a bubble, whether silver is money, a lot of it’s going on on X, and it looks like Grok is mentioning me in the silver news, or that might just be tailored for me by the algorithm and nobody else is seeing it.

I don’t know what’s going on, but there’s a lot that has to be clarified here. There are actors or people in the silver and gold community that are making some moves that some people think that I might disagree with, that I actually don’t disagree with. One of them is Rick Rule, said that he sold most of his physical silver. I don’t know how much, maybe 80% or something. I’m not selling my physical silver, but I wouldn’t consider selling physical silver in favor of gold miners really selling your silver. It’s just changing the form of silver that you own.

I can understand why Rick Rule is doing this, though I’m not personally doing it. This point with silver at $110 and it being unclear what exactly is causing it, because first of all, the Fed is not printing that much. They’re not pushing their foot on the pedal. It’s not pedal to the metal right now. SLV is not being hoarded. Silver, junk silver premiums are negative. Open interest is not rising, so what is going on here and who is buying silver at $110 an ounce? Since that’s not clear, and because the silver miners to silver ratio is very, very low now, near record lows, meaning silver miners are very undervalued relative to the price of silver right now, almost historically, I can understand why people would sell some of their silver, some of their junk silver or whatever it is they have for silver miners.

It makes some amount of sense. However, where I do stand out is that I understand that silver is still money and using silver to acquire dollar profits is not going to work in the endgame. The question is, are we in the endgame right now? Is this the parabola that causes the endgame? I don’t think it is because there’s still one more dollar crunch ahead of us. There’s going to be an increased, a huge spurt for demand for the dollar, not because people suddenly think it’s money again and has really nothing, not nothing, and it’s very little to do with whether people like the dollar or don’t like the dollar or they decide the dollar is no longer what they want to hold.

The fact is, the monetary system on the planet is still dollar-based and people, especially international debtors, have dollar-denominated debt, so it doesn’t matter, it doesn’t really make a difference whether they like the dollar or not. They still have to have dollars to service their debt. So, for example, what could end up happening here is that a company, let’s say a Chinese company, that’s hoarding silver to produce its solar panels, if they have to suddenly pay down their debt and they have all this extra silver at a high price and there’s a dollar crunch, they might have to sell their silver to service their debt to stay in business.

This is still possible. I think it’s even likely. Now, the question is, how high will silver go before this crunch happens? Will it go up to 200, 250, 300? I really have no idea. But after that top, wherever it might be, silver is going to crash, probably. I don’t know to what. It could go from maybe $200 to $100 and the $100 could be the new bottom. But it could be anything. The fact is, there’s probably going to be one more crash. So, I don’t want people saying, oh, we’re off, you’re saying, we’re just going to go parabolic on the endgame already.

We’re not because there still has to be one more dollar crunch. But with that said, before we get into the very important slides here, you can get your gold and silver still. At Miles Franklin, the premiums are negative right now. So, you can get it at a discount for spot silver, which I think is what the solar panel companies, whatever industrial demands, are hoarding silver right now. They can’t use junk silver because it needs to be purified for whatever industrial purpose they need. And the refiners are not taking silver right now because they have a clogged backup because a lot of people want to sell their silver and the price is really high, but the companies that are buying silver can’t use the junk that the stackers have.

But you can still get gold and silver at Miles Franklin. If you don’t have any yet, you probably need some to get through the endgame or gold to get to the other side of the endgame. Use the link in the description below. Take some of your gold and silver. Put it in a dirty man’s safe. Use the code endgame10 at checkout for 10% off. It might not be the endgame right now, but it’s coming because once the fed hits the pedal to the metal, that should be it. And that’s going to come on the next and final banking crisis, which is approaching pretty soon.

When exactly? I really wish I knew. The slides. Before we get into silver, I just wanted to go into what’s happening in Japan right now. Japan is struggling with the yen trying to keep it below 160 per dollar. And there are rumors that the United States or the Federal Reserve or the banking system or whatever it is that’s acting on Japan’s behalf or with Japan to strengthen the yen is moving together with them to keep the yen steady. Why does the yen need to be steady? Because the yen is a load-bearing candy cane of the monetary system.

Oh, that’s a load-bearing candy cane, you clumsy oaf! Because they are the most inflated currency in terms of debt to GDP, in terms of their Keynesian extremism. They’ve gone from kamikaze culture to kamikaze culture monetarily. But Takaiichi warns Japan is ready to act on speculative moves. That means that she’s threatening to buy the yen if the yen goes below a certain amount. And she says here, very contradictory, as politicians often are, it is not for me as a Prime Minister to comment on matters from Bloomberg, by the way.

That should be determined by the market, but we will take all necessary measures to address speculative and highly abnormal movements. And she says, it’s not for me to comment, but here I’m commenting and I’m saying we will do everything we can. And if you defy me, I will do whatever it is that I do as a Japanese Prime Minister. Takaiichi didn’t specify if her comments were related to the Japanese government bond yields, or the yen. They’re the same face! Doesn’t anyone notice this? I feel like I’m taking crazy pills! Government officials have recently made several warning comments regarding both markets.

They are threatening the markets and the markets are reacting. You’ll see that in the next slide here. This is when Takaiichi made her statement. The yen was collapsing towards 160, you see. And then she said something, and then this happened, there was a little zigzag over there, and then it really started to fall. Falling here means strengthening. Instead of 158 per dollar, it’s 155.67 per dollar. This is going to happen as politics fight the market. The market will ultimately win. Politics is too weak to deal with the awesomeness of the market.

It cannot win, but it can wobble the graph for a while. But anyway, Japan bond wipeout was triggered by just 280 million dollars of trading. That’s it! This is also from Bloomberg. It took just 280 million dollars of trading to push Japan 7.2 trillion, trillion, trillion, whatever. These numbers don’t mean anything anymore, anyway. Government bond market into meltdown. That was the combined turnover of the country’s benchmark ultra-long maturity bonds as they plummeted on Tuesday unleashing a 41 billion dollar wipeout across the Japanese curvelets and shock waves through global markets.

The route pushed yields to record levels, stoked worries that Japan was heading into a Liz Trust moment. Remember Liz Trust? That was the prime minister that lasted about six hours in the UK and there was this other treasury guy or whatever they call it in England, Kwazi Kwarteng. He also got fired, anyway. And he led U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bass and sea creators of what he called a six standard deviation move. That’s a lot of standard deviations. I think six is the maximum. I don’t know. I don’t really care either.

It’s just a lot. The 30 and 40 year bond notes were the worst hit during Tuesday’s trading session, which several market participants described as the most chaotic in recent memory. Well, how long does it remember you? If they have, you know, memory problems, then it’s not that much. But anyway, we’re going to go to the next slide here and now we’re going to start talking about silver. So what is going on in Shanghai? In Shanghai, the silver stocks in their exchanges are at a low that goes back to 2013.

It’s not a record low, but it’s a recent low and it keeps getting drained. We’re at 506 tons. And this is the stuff they take out in order to stockpile it for their solar panel manufacturing stuff. These are not stackers. These are industrial users, mainly. Drainage, Eli. Drainage. Silver backwardation persists. Backwardation, it’s not what I define as backwardation, but we’re just going to use that word. I asked Keith Weiner about his opinion about backwardation and what backwardation means to him versus what it means to me. So this is his version of backwardation.

I guess it kind of is. It means that silver spot prices that you can get in London are more expensive than New York futures prices. So I asked Keith, what does it mean when New York spot prices are more expensive than New York futures prices? He called that forward curve inversion instead of backwardation. Whatever term used for it, forward curve inversion is a lot more extreme than silver backwardation between London and New York. But since we have backwardation between London and New York, meaning the premium on London is higher, then the future is premium in New York.

And let’s see. It says here that London is now $2 higher than New York, and this backwardation has persisted since late December. This is the backwardation in October. It was from about the first week of October until the end of the month, about two, three weeks here. And here we’re going into a whole month, or even more than that if you count it from here, about a month and a half of backwardation. And backwardation practically in this sense means that if you want to sell short futures contracts in New York, you cannot hedge them profitably in London because the hedge is more expensive than the contract you’re selling forward.

You can’t pocket a difference on the spread, and therefore it is not economical to do that. And that keeps the supply of contracts in New York lower since they are impossible to hedge profitably. The longer this persists, the higher the silver price is going to have to go until this backwardation is resolved. But anyway, so there’s one problem in that, and it shows here that it’s affecting the silver open interest market because open interest is not elevated here. There are no more contracts being sold now than otherwise. They’re not very elevated at all.

We have $155,000. I think it’s $158,000, but this is pretty mid-tier, mid-level amount of contracts. And you’d think that short sellers would want to sell short here at $110 an ounce, but they can’t because to hedge it, it costs like $112 an ounce to hedge. So therefore, that keeps the supply of contracts low and elevates the futures contract. So this is not futures speculators that is driving the price here. Otherwise, you would see higher open interest, which is impossible right now. So what else could it be? Is it SLV? Is it retail ETF investors? No, it’s not.

Look at this. The blue line is the price of SLV. The black line is the amount of silver in the fund. We are not anywhere near a record high here. Record high was at silver squeeze at about 21,000 tons. We are now at, what is it, 16,000 tons. And you can see here, at the 2011 high, it kind of was SLV-related because this, at that time, was a record high of the amount of silver in the SLV fund. Here, we’re not anywhere near that. And if you zoom in, you can see here, this little box shows the interplay between the blue and the red lines.

The blue is the price of SLV. The black is the amount of silver in SLV, supposedly. And you have here, at the time, that SLV, the fund share price, was $55, which means that silver was about 60, 62. I think there’s like a $5 or $6 difference between them, something like that. You can see here, we had a certain amount, whatever that amount is, of silver in the fund. And now that we are at 95, even 97 now, as of this morning, the dollars per share of SLV, we have about the same amount of silver from 55 to about 95.

And it’s been going down since this over here, when silver was about 60. So it’s not SLV hoarders. It’s not retail buyers. It’s not even institutional buyers of SLV. So it’s not open interest in the futures. It’s not SLV speculators. And also, it’s not the stackers either, because junk silver premiums are negative. They just plummeted to negative 3%. Suddenly, there was some kind of market adjustment here. We’ve been hovering around zero since November, and now there was a plummet to about negative 3%. So it costs more to buy a silver futures contract or silver and Shanghai in a contract than it does to buy junk silver, probably, because it’s not refined.

And whoever’s buying the silver now needs refined silver, and junk silver is not that. You can also see, in Silver Eagles, the most expensive and popular of the silver. It’s not even junk silver. It’s more expensive. But even here, you have a negative 2.55% premium on eBay. This is the main market for junk silver or silver coins. It’s not the best price, but it’s probably the most popular. I might be wrong about that. But a negative premium on eBay means, yeah, silver is cheaper than silver contracts. So there’s something going on here. It’s not the stackers.

It’s not the speculators. Now, getting back to the point that I made at the beginning of the video, it might make some sense to take some profits on silver bullion if you have your profits and to put some of that in silver miners that pay a dividend. You can see here the silver to SIL. SIL is the main silver ETF, and it’s a decent proxy for the value of silver miners, so it’s not perfect. You can see here, the higher this number is, the cheaper silver miners are relative to silver.

You can see here, here was the silver crash of 2020, and we went up to about 1.025. We’re at 0.923. This is very near an all-time high. The all-time highs are over here at about 1.025. So silver miners are very undervalued relative to the silver price. So if you don’t have any silver miners and you’ve wanted to get a position in those, now is not the worst time to do that and take some profits from your silver, either ETFs or whatever you have. I wouldn’t exactly sell your physical, but if you have any silver derivatives, silver bullion derivatives, it might be an interesting idea, though I don’t recommend anything, and this is all entertainment.

I’m very, very funny. To sell some of the silver bullion ETFs or derivatives that you have and get some silver miners. At this point, I don’t know what to tell you in terms of where the silver price is going, because I don’t know who’s responsible for this and how high the industrial users will bid the silver price in a desperate attempt to keep their silver stocks in use or available. It could go up to $150, it could go up to $200, it could go up to $300. It could top right here and go back to $50 in a week.

Silver is that volatile. And just to cover my own butt, that I didn’t say that it’s not going to be volatile. It’s going to be volatile. I don’t know where the numbers are going to be. But in the end, silver is money because the dollar was born in silver. And now, it appears to be dying in silver. It will have one last big flicker higher in the next banking crisis. But after that, it’s not going to be the industrial users that are bidding silver higher. It will be everyone in the world as they really do abandon the dollar as the Fed slams the gas to save the banking system and they will save it nominally, but it will be empty of all content as the silver value of the dollar goes to zero and the dollar price of silver goes to infinity.

Nothing is priced in dollars anymore and all becomes priced in silver ounces. It’s coming. It’s coming soon. Get your gold and silver at Miles Franklin. Take your gold and silver. Put some in a dirty man’s safe. Use the code Endgame10 and check out for 10% off. And I’ll see you guys in a few days and who knows what silver is going to be by then. I’m finished. [tr:trw].

See more of Rafi Farber on their Public Channel and the MPN Rafi Farber channel.