Summary
➡ This text talks about how money has evolved over time. It started with gold being used as money for 5000 years, then we moved to paper money that represented the gold in banks. However, as technology advanced, we started to digitize everything, but our money hasn’t been fully digitized yet. The text suggests that the next step in money’s evolution is digitizing value or wealth, which is what we’re doing now.
➡ This text talks about the potential of Bitcoin as a store of value asset, like gold or real estate. It suggests that Bitcoin could capture a significant portion of the market for these assets, potentially reaching a value of $10 million per Bitcoin. The text also discusses the problems with current forms of money, like fiat currencies and gold, and suggests that Bitcoin could be a solution. However, it emphasizes that this is a long-term prediction and that the evolution of money takes time.
➡ Bitcoin, a digital currency, is predicted to increase in value significantly over the next few decades. Some experts believe it could reach a value of one million dollars by 2030 and possibly one billion dollars by 2038. These predictions are based on the idea that Bitcoin’s value will grow as more people use it, similar to how a network becomes more valuable as it grows. However, these are just predictions and the actual outcome could be different.
➡ This video discusses different possibilities for the future of digital currency, like Bitcoin or a new option from a central bank. The creator asks for viewer feedback on which topics to explore more. They also encourage likes, dislikes, comments, and subscriptions to their channel.
Transcript
Time. And now today, it’s crossing what we call the chasm. As we see Blackrock and fidelity adding millions of people, we have three us presidential candidates openly discussing bitcoin. And so today, for those of you with an open mind and are willing to understand that, again, everything in life is a probability. I’m going to break down the math. I’m going to break down the future potential of bitcoin like it’s never been done before.
I’m going to show you the ods. I’m going to show you the path it will take. We’re going to look at the different price points along the way, the timeframes, and, of course, how to play this. If you’re a huge bitcoin skeptic or you’re a diehard bitcoin believer, either way, this is for you. So let’s go. All right, welcome back. If you’re new to the channel, my name is Mark Moss.
I make these videos, of course, to change the way you think about money, because almost everything you’ve learned is wrong, and it’s changing. We’re talking about bitcoin. We’re talking about a new form of money. And most people don’t understand it because as my good friend Jeff Booth, who we’ll hear about later, he likes to say that it’s very hard to see a new system, to understand a new system when you’re stuck in an existing system.
So, look, I get it. It’s difficult. So have an open mind. Now, if you want the short answer, where is it going? I’m going to break down the math to how we get to 43 billion. And for some of us, in our lifetime. All right, I’m going to break down the math, the path, all that. But first, I want to tell you a story. Last night, I was watching a brand new tv show.
I think it was called the tracker. It’s not super good. It was okay. It was the very first episode that I saw. But there’s this guy, and he goes and finds people like people that have rewards and bounties, things like that. But throughout the show, he kept saying, if we go now, we have a 95% chance. But if we wait an hour, we only have a 5% chance.
If I hurry up and get you out now, I think we have a 50% chance. But if we wait with. And he kept talking about probabilities all the time, we have a probability of this. Now, if we wait, my probability drops to this. And probably, I don’t know, three, four, or five times throughout the show he would do that. And that’s how life is. So the first thing I want to let you know is that, all right, so the problem that I see too many people making is they think very linear.
Everything’s black or white. It’s this or that. There’s no way this can happen, or there’s no way this can happen. And that’s not how life works, okay? There’s a world of possibilities. Everything is possible. And then there’s probabilities or percentages that we think that this can happen. So you may be the biggest bitcoin skeptic in the world, but still ask yourself this question. Are you 100% sure, 100% guaranteed, there’s no way bitcoin will ever succeed from here.
And of course, the answer is no. You can’t say that now. You might say there’s a 90% chance. Okay, great. Then that 10%, you might want to listen. All right, does that make sense? So, think about things in terms of probability, and let me break this down for you in what’s going to be a master class. So the short answer is, like I said, 43 billion. If you just want to shut it off right now, you could have just read the title, but let me break down the math for you.
But more importantly, they said, how does it get there, and when does it happen? I bet those are the questions that you want to know. And that’s what I’m going to break down. Okay, so to break this down, the very first thing we have to understand is, what is it? When in Silicon Valley about 15 years ago, when they were trying to raise money for Uber, they would go, hey, I have this new app I’m building.
I want to raise 100 million. And they’d say, what is it? Right? I’m a venture capital investor. I’ve been investing in venture cap for probably over a dozen years now. That’s what we do. What is it? So, first of all, what is bitcoin? Is it a brand new technology? Sure. Yeah, it’s technology. What is it disrupting? So, okay, it’s an app. Uber is an app. What is it disrupting? It’s disrupting the taxi industry, the limo industry, the rideshare industry.
And then we look at how big those markets are, and then we look at how much we think it can pull from those. We’re going to break the math down in a minute. But first, what is it? So, yes, it’s a brand new technology. It’s an app. What is it doing? Well, it’s sort of like money, a medium of exchange. The white paper says it’s peer to peer cash, electronic cash.
So we exchange it for money, a medium exchange. It’s also a store of value, as we call an SOV. All right? Now it is winning the war of store value, which eventually could evolve into the next stage. I’m going to break that evolutionary path down for you so you can see the timeframe. But let’s just talk about the store of value because I want to simplify this, and I know it sounds crazy, but I’m going to make it sound very conservative so we could overshoot it.
So let’s just talk about the store of value right now. All right, so what, we can see many headlines. I can continue to pull them. Goldman Sachs, one of the biggest financial institutions in the United States and the world, says bitcoin will not, could not, should, but will compete with gold as store of value. This is Goldman Sachs. We know that Larry Fink, the largest asset manager in the world from Blackrock now went on tv a month ago saying that bitcoin is a flight to safety.
Right? So it’s a store of value. We know this. We can see Kathy Wood, who runs one of the biggest tech funds in Wall street. She says that bitcoin, describing bitcoin as both. So it’s both. It’s multiple things. It’s more things than we’ll know in the future. Both a store of value and a risk off asset, meaning we use it to store our wealth, but we also use it when there’s times of risk or high inflation.
Wood emphasized that when compared to gold, the upward trajectory hints at the possibility of overtaking gold as a more valuable investment in the future. Okay, so you can see this from any number of people. It is a store of value. It’s winning a store of value. Bitcoin is like digital gold, all right? But it’s better than gold. I’m not going to break down all the ways in this video.
If you want a separate video comparing bitcoin to gold, let me know. I can make another video on that. But you have to understand that it doesn’t compete directly with gold because it’s better from that standpoint. And again, the markets tell us that that’s not just my opinion. If you’re a gold bug, I am too. I’ve been a gold bug since 2008. I own gold. I talk about gold all the time.
But you still have to understand this. Don’t be mad. This is what the markets tell us. As a matter of fact, we can see here the pace of inflows. Now we have these new bitcoin etFs. So the markets are now voting. The pace of money going into the ETFs is remarkable. In just 15 days, in only 15 days, the first 15 days open, the bitcoin ETFs attracted over $25 billion, comparable to the market cap of the largest gold producer, Barrack Gold.
Within 15 days, more money went into these bitcoin ETFs than the entire market cap of the largest gold producer. Think about that. We can see right here this unparalleled growth to the second largest assets under management, Aum, among us commodity etfs, establishing them as the new digital gold. So they surpass silver, and they are growing way faster than gold ever did. And they’re catching up to gold. At the rate they’re at, they could overtake gold in the next year.
So the markets are telling us this. It’s not just commentators, but we have to also understand, as a store of value, it’s not competing in an industry. Right? So Uber was competing against taxis. Uber was competing against limousines. Bitcoin as a store of value doesn’t compete with industries. It’s not competing with Visa or PayPal. For people to make those comparisons is ridiculous. It’s a store of value, so it competes against other store of value assets.
That’s what it’s actually competing against. And we can see that the market that it’s going after, the market it’s competing in is value itself. Okay, so it is a new technology, but it’s not visa, it’s not Mastercard, it’s not Facebook. It’s competing against other store of value assets such as gold, for value itself. All right, hopefully that makes sense. Now. We also have to realize that the world has changed a lot.
And what’s happened is, as the world has rapidly changed, money and our technology into store of value has not. So we are in the digital revolution. I’m sure you know that by now. You’re watching me over the Internet. So of course you’re part of the digital revolution. What we’ve seen is that while the digital revolution has digitized everything. Music, movies, books, videos, everything’s become digitized. Our money hasn’t.
And actually, this cool image, all these images were created by Chat GPT. Pretty interesting. And this shows us how all of these technologies have become digitized. Books, movies, music, et cetera. And the last thing to be digitized that hasn’t yet, it’s happening right now is digitizing value, digitizing wealth. That’s what we’re doing right now. And it’s a monetary evolution. We have to understand that what we use as money today, well, gold was money for 5000 years, has been an evolutionary process.
And this is the next step, the digitization of value. This is where it’s competing. That’s how big the market is. Okay, now let me just break this down to something that you can understand so we can have something to build off of. Okay? So as I said, gold was money for 5000 years, right? So at the end of the day, we don’t want money. I know it’s a shocking statement to make.
I know you want a lot of money. No, we don’t want money. What we want is the goods and services that money buys us. We want food, we want clothes, we want a house, want to travel, things like that. We want the goods and services. Gold or money is what we use to get those things. And we can hold our value, our wealth, our energy in that money until we’re ready to deploy it to get those goods and service that we want.
So if goods and services are wealth and money as a way to acquire it, then what we do is we take all the goods and services of the world, the wealth divided by all the gold. That’s the price. It’s a unit of account. Everything is priced in gold or priced in money. So think about this. Gold was money. It was the store of value for 5000 years. It was the unit of account.
Everything was priced in it. Now, gold, because of technology, the world started evolving and we had global trade, taking off globalization. But gold is very slow. If I want to pay from California, somebody in New York with gold, it takes a long time to get that gold there. So what we did is we put the gold in the banks and the banks then used a ledger to, you know, from California.
Now the guy in New York now on the ledger shows he has the gold. The gold didn’t actually move. They just changed the ledger. That was a new piece of technology, all right? But that didn’t actually solve anything. And so what we did is we created paper dollars, fiat money, paper dollars. That represented the gold in the bank. So we had $1 was equal to 20oz of gold.
Let me show you the chart. This is the gold price chart for the last hundred years. So what we can see, since the 18 hundreds, $1, $1 equaled 20. I’m sorry. $20 equaled 1oz of gold. Then, in 1933, I’ve talked about this extensively because all the gold went into the bank. The government just took it all. They seized it all. They don’t want to say they seized it.
They bought it from you forcibly. Then what they did is they revalued it to now be $35 for 1oz of gold. You can see that 20. And then it was 35 this whole time. Now, this red line here is where we ended the gold standard, and we no longer had relation to the price of gold. But the reason why I want you to understand this for right now is because at this time, all the dollars in existence were divided by all the gold.
And it was $20 for every 1oz. And then it was $35 because they printed way too many of them. That’s why they had to seize the gold. Then they took. Then it was $35 for every 1oz of gold. You’re understanding this, but again, in 1971, we left the gold standard. And you can see by this chart right here is where we left. Now, what I did is I took a trendline, and you can see the trendline we are on.
And if we hadn’t left the gold standard here, we would have about this much money in circulation today. This is the m two chart. This shows how much dollars are in circulation. Okay? So we would have about this much. But of course, they would have needed to get more gold. But then, 1971, we got a new trendline, and that took us to here. Right around here. In the year 2000, we got a new trend line that takes us to here.
2008, we got a new trendline that takes us to here. In 2020, we have a new trendline. And look at that trend that we’re on. Here’s the problem. They’ve added more of those paper currencies, but they didn’t add more gold because, of course, we’re no longer on a gold system, which is why you can see this right here. All right? But you have to understand this to understand where we’re going.
We had all the dollars in existence divided by all the gold, and that’s gone. But that’s the way it works, and we have to go back to it. We are in a 52. We’re in about a 52 year experiment that’s gone horribly wrong. I’ll show you how it’s gone horribly wrong in a minute. Okay, so now that you understand that, you hear a lot of people talking about maybe going back to the gold standard, the rise of BRICs.
BRICs are going to launch their own gold backed currency. You’ve heard me talk about that extensively. You have Jim Rickards and Peter Schiff talking about we’re going to go back to gold. And the reason why is because gold was money for 5000 years. For 50 years, we’ve tried this little fiat experiment. It’s failed horribly wrong. And so the only way that governments will get trust back into fiat currency is to back it with something like gold again.
You’ve heard that many times. So this is how this would work. Let me break it down. In the United States, there’s about $20 trillion of currency, of paper, of fiat currency, 20 trillion. The US supposedly, I don’t know if I believe this holds 8000 tons of gold. So then what you would do is you would take the 8000 tons, is 282,000,000oz. So you’d take the 20 trillion divided by the 282,000,000oz.
And that would give you a new gold price of $70,000 per ounce of gold at the $20 per ounce of gold up until 1933, the 35, up until 1971, that’s how it worked. And to go back to a gold standard, 100% backed, this would be the new math. That’s why gold bugs want this to go back to a gold standard. And they want to hold gold because they think their $2,000 an ounce gold will go to 70,000 an ounce.
Be pretty amazing if that happened. Although bitcoin is going to do better. I’ll break the math down now, we also have to think globally, all right? Because this is not just the US. The US dollar is the global reserve currency. We also have the euro dollar going on. So we have to think globally. So if we think globally, there’s about $87 trillion globally. And about, we don’t really know because China doesn’t really report it properly.
But approximately 187,000 tons of gold in the whole world, all the gold in the world that’s ever been brought above ground is still above ground. It’s not really a consumable good. I think all the gold in the world fits in like a football field. It’s not even that much. 187,000 tons, which is 6 billionoz. So we take the $87 trillion of currency divided by the 6 billionoz, would give us about a $13,000 price per gold.
Does that make sense? Okay, so now that we’ve gone through that math, you’re ready to understand the next step in the process. Okay, so you remember we’ve made a couple of cases here. Gold was what we used to measure or price things in. Wealth is goods and services, not gold. Wealth is the goods and services. The gold is what it was priced in. And so we had to divide the goods and services by the wealth, by the gold.
So now what other global assets are there? How do we measure how much goods and services are out there? How much wealth is out there? Well, there’s a couple of ways we can look at this. All of these global assets are. Well, we’re looking at the global assets right now for this math. In store of value assets, there’s lots of assets, but we don’t store our wealth in all types of assets.
So just for this exercise, being conservative, I know this sounds crazy. We’re only looking at what we call store of value assets, things that you would put your money into, such as gold is a store of value asset real estate. Sure, I have a house there, but I park my wealth in real estate as well. Bonds, stocks, things like that. Okay, so if we look at that, here’s a chart from Jesse Croesis.
He did an amazing write up on this. We’re going to link to it in the description down below if you want to read his write up and breakdown of this. But we have store of value assets right here. Gold, cars, other collectibles. So rich people buy really old collectible cars, things like that. They store their wealth in there. One of my buddies down the streets got a couple of mustangs that are worth millions of dollars.
Pretty cool. He doesn’t drive them. Fine art, of course, stock market, right? We buy stock to put our wealth in there. Real estate, like I said, not just your home, but other real estate that you invested to bonds and of course, money. If we add those up, we have $12 trillion in gold, 6 trillion in collectibles, 18 trillion in fine art, 115,000,000,000,000. And you do the math, it totals $900 trillion.
If we add all that up. Now, again, back to the Uber example. Uber is going to disrupt taxis, limos, vans. What percentage do we think it can get from each of those markets so, conservatively? Do we think bitcoin could capture 50% of the gold market cap? I think so. Goldman Sachs says it’s going to overtake it, so 50%. That puts bitcoin at 6 trillion. Cars, other collectibles, it’s not going to take the whole thing.
People like cars, people like collectibles. People like fine art. But could it take 5%? I think that’s reasonable. Fine art, 5%. Sure. Stock market, 15%. I think reasonable. Real estate, 15%. Okay. Bonds, 30%. Money, 30%. That brings us to $200 trillion just at those levels. And this could happen over the next five, six, seven years. All right, so I’ll get more to the time frame. We’ll break this math down a little bit more.
But that would put one bitcoin to $10 million. It’s a big number, $10 million just for getting these pieces. Now, we’re not even adding all the other use cases, the money exchanging. We’re not including all the technologies being built on bitcoin. We’re just talking about store of value assets only. All right, so you can see that math. Now let’s keep going here. Now remember, there’s no such thing as certainties.
There’s only probabilities. So is this a probable outcome? Well, what we do know is pretty much certain, 99% certain, that fiat is dead. Fiat is crashing. Fiat was an experiment. We’re 52 years into this experiment. 5000 years of using sound money. 52 years of fiat, and it’s dead. It’s over. There’s pretty much no way it can continue from here. Like I said, they’re going to have to figure out a way to bring some trust back into the system.
So what options do we have? Well, I did a video a couple of months ago in Amsterdam, or I gave a talk at a conference in Amsterdam a couple months ago. Let’s go ahead and just play this clip so you can hear it. We can see the system is shifting. If you’re paying attention, they’re buying gold. The problem is it already failed before. We live in an information world.
Today we need money to transfer at the speed of our transactions over the Internet, and gold can’t do that. Gold requires trust. Since gold can’t transfer immediately, it requires someone to hold a ledger. And if someone’s holding the ledger, we must trust that person. But trust is lost. So if that doesn’t work, if we don’t go back to commodities, where do we go? Well, the next solution is central bank digital currencies.
Because that should fix everything, right? The CBDCs seem to be the next logical step. But the problem is, I would call this not de evolution. I’d call it zero evolution because it’s basically the exact same thing that we have right now, it still allows the central banks to print unlimited amounts of money. So if we have a problem of endless money printing, then we need to fix it.
We need a solution that has a fixed supply, doesn’t allow anybody to have endless money printing. And in a multipolar world where we’re no longer in the current monetary order or the current international order that we have today, a US led order with a us dollar reserve currency in a paper fiat monetary system, moving to a multipolar world, how does the world move forward when there is no trust in a world where trust is gone? It’s almost like we need a decentralized ledger that’s trustless.
And so in this new world order that we’re going into, the question is left, if not bitcoin, then what? All right, so you can hear from there. Like, the options are one, we go back to gold, but gold already failed because it’s old technology. We live in a world of instant transactions, and we need instant settlement. But gold can never do that without adding debt and adding trust in the system, which there is no trust in the system anymore.
So gold doesn’t work. The other option is, well, a CBDC, but that’s basically still fiat. And the problem is the unlimited money printing and the debt. So that doesn’t fix it either. So as I put in the question at the end of that presentation, if not bitcoin, then what? So it’s not guaranteed, but is it at least probable? Do you think there’s a 20% chance that people move to it? I mean, we’re certainly seeing that happen.
Now, is there a 30, 40, 50% chance? We’ll come back to that in a second. But let’s take a look at this. Let’s look at some of the time frames this is happening on. Now, remember I said this is an evolutionary process. One of the biggest problems that people have with understanding this is they expect way too much too soon. Imagine you and I walking through a forest of redwoods, and we find this little tree, like this big.
And I’m like, oh, my gosh, look at this little tree. Look how cool this is. Can you imagine that this tree one day is going to be as big as these other trees? And you’re like, oh, that’s stupid, Mark. That tree will never be that big. Look how small it is. How could it ever grow that big? And I’m like, what do you. But give it time. Give it a couple decades.
Like, it’ll get there, right? So you have to understand, things take time. And there’s an evolutionary path that things have to go down. Another image by Chat GPT showing this evolutionary path. So what am I talking about? Let’s take a look at this evolutionary path. So remember, as I said, money. If you study thousands of years of history of money, rocks, feathers, seashells, gold, you understand it was always emergent and it was always an evolution.
What happens is it starts right here as a collectible. Oh, this is a pretty cool rock. I think I’m going to keep it. It’s a collectible. Oh, look at this baseball card, this Pokemon card. I like this. I’ll collect it. Now, there’s a lot of things that become collectibles, but if maybe sometimes they could evolve to the next stage, which could become a store of value. So baseball cards are stores of value.
Some people store millions of dollars in baseball cards, Pokemon cards, watches. Not all collectibles make the evolution to store value, but a lot do. Now, if maybe, if they have the right attributes of money, portable, divisible, durable, recognizable things like that, then maybe it could evolve to the next stage from a store value to a medium of exchange. Okay, so now it’s big enough, it’s a big enough asset class.
It’s widely accepted. It has the right attributes, like I said, and now people use it as medium exchange. And then maybe if potentially, if it could, we could evolve to the next stage, which is a unit of account, which means everything’s priced in that thing. Now. Right now, everything’s priced in dollars. Oil is priced in dollars. Gold’s priced in dollars. Most of the world prices things in dollars because it is the currency of the world.
Now, some countries have other currencies, but you get my point. You’re still pricing it in that currency. So this is the evolutionary path. I think we are somewhere right around here. We’ve already checked all these boxes, and we have a little bit ways to go. Now, what time frame are we looking at? All right, I showed you the path. What is the time frame? Now, that evolutionary path doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed.
Remember, life is about probabilities, but we can continue to watch that now over what time frame? Now, when you look back through technological revolutions, you realize they happen about every 50 years. You’ve heard me talk extensively about technology cycles. So this is a path. This is where bitcoin started, right here. And we are sitting somewhere right about here, right now. We’re in this path. You’re not too late.
We still have all this to go right here. Before we start to level out. And I think we really see all this happen by about 2050. So I don’t know where you’re at in your stage of life right now. You could be alive to see this happen. Now, none of this is guaranteed, but this is the most probable outcome going back to old technology of gold or what.
That’s the question. And you can see we’re rapidly heading for this now. We’re literally living through this. We’re literally watching this revolution. We’re watching this financial revolution cycle end right in front of us. Okay, great. So now you understand what it’s attacking value itself. You understand that the evolutionary path and what that process looks like. You understand the time frame. Now let’s talk about the prices. Now. I talked about 43 billion in 50, 60 years from now.
But where is it in a year from now or four or five years from now or seven or eight years from now? Let’s talk about that for now. All right, so Hal Finney was one of the main developers that developed bitcoin. He worked with Satoshi Nakamoto, which, yes, nobody knows who he is, but we know lots of the other developers that worked on it with Satoshi, including Halfini, Adam back, Nigzabo, et cetera.
So Halfenny was a developer. Now, back in 2009 when it was released, we just got a whole bunch of Satoshi’s emails released to the public. We can see this was January 10, 2009, and he said here, announcing the first release of bitcoin. Pretty cool, but we can see through those emails. I sort of summarized it here so you can see it easier, how Finney predicted $22 million bitcoin.
This was back in 2009 when it was first released, he said, not based on mere speculation, but rather on a thoughtful analysis of bitcoin’s potential as a global payment system. So he’s backing into the math sort of the same way I am. The collective value of bitcoin would align with the total wealth of the world. Wealth of the world divided by the asset unit of account, which he estimated to be within the range of 100 trillion to $300 trillion.
That was in 2009. Today it’s about $900 trillion. By dividing this value among the limited supply of 21 million bitcoin, Finney came up with a $22 million price per bitcoin. That was in 2009 when it was first invented. You could have picked it up for a couple of pennies. But he saw that vision that we’re rapidly heading towards. What about. Let’s hear from Chamath. Chamath is a prolific investor in Silicon Valley early into Facebook, billionaire.
Let’s hear what he had to say. Bitcoin. That falls into that category, because that’s what that is. 39,000. Where’s it going? I mean, can you play the clip in 2012 and 13 when it was at 200 and everybody was laughing at me on CNBC every time I would talk about bitcoin. Where is it going? It’s probably going to 100, then 150, then 200,000. In what period? I don’t know, five years, ten years.
But it’s going there. And the reason is because every time you see all of this stuff happening, it just reminds you that, wow, our leaders are not as trustworthy and reliable as they used to be. And so just in case we really do need to have some kind of insurance we can keep under our pillow that gives us some access to an uncorrelated hedge. All right, now, mind you, this video is from 2021.
So he’s talking about it going to 100, 150, all the way up to a million dollars, which it’s certainly doing. He says a million dollars by 2040. That’s the time frame he’s on. What else we have? We have fidelity. Fidelity is, I think, the second largest asset manager in the US. They do a lot of research on bitcoin. It’s the second largest bitcoin ETF. They predict a billion dollars for one bitcoin by 2038, 2038.
The director of global macro at Fidelity investments thinks a single bitcoin could reach 1 billion by the year 2038. A lot of what he’s done is rooted in, and he’s come at this from a bunch of angles. Specifically, he says it’s rooted in Metcalf’s law, which is that a network continues to grow faster and faster and faster, becomes more valuable. And he says it’ll grow to about 1 million per bitcoin by 2030.
So 1 million by 2030, 1 billion by 2038, based off of that. Now, fidelity, like I said, they put out a ton of good research and data on this, one of which is this Metscap’s law. And you can see how this price arc is working. It doesn’t go up hyperbolically forever, right? It doesn’t go up. Straight line. It starts to taper off, but yet it still goes up.
We have a million dollar bitcoin right about here. And you can see that. I’ll have this other chart right here that I think is really good fidelity put together. You can get all this information directly off of their website. But this shows the different analogs. So this is the bitcoin price arc right here. And I know for the bitcoin skeptics, I know it crashes, right? So it goes super high, and then it crashes all the way back down.
And then this stays below the trend line. And then it goes super high, and then it crashes all the way down again. And it stays below the trend line. It goes super high, and it crashes all the way down. Now, some people go, well, why don’t I just sell here and buy right here? Sure, you can certainly try that. Or you could just wait and sit and go along for the ride.
Now, what about me? Where do I think it’s going to go? Well, I think a million dollars by 2030 seems pretty realistic to me. We’ll see again in the world of possibilities and probabilities. I think it’s highly probable we’ll get there. Certainly not guaranteed, which is why I don’t put 100% of my money in. We’ll come back to that in a minute. But I think in the next 18 months, $100 to $150,000 bitcoin is kind of what I’m thinking.
That’s a two to three x return from here. I don’t know of any other asset I can put my money into right now, today that can get me that type of return. So that’s kind of what I’m thinking. All right, so now that you have this information, what are you going to do with it? What do you do? Well, in the famous words of Satoshi Nakamoto, he said that it might make sense to get some just in case it catches on.
So back to the world of probabilities. All right. Just like that show I told you I was watching. Everything’s a probability. So do you think that there is a 50% chance that bitcoin gets to $150,000 in the next two years? Okay, and it’s 50,000 today. That’s a two x upside with a one x downside, it’s pretty good. Ods, you have a 50% conviction of that. How much money you should put in? Maybe put in 50%.
Hold the other 50% you can average in. So you can buy it, you should secure it and hold it. And you can either lump some in, you can put that money in, or you can dollar cost average in over time. So buy it. That’s the first thing. Do you have some? Do you have enough? How much should you have? It depends off your conviction. Now, what we’re seeing Wall street with the etFs, they’re putting two to 5% allocations in.
You put two to 5% allocation in. Even if it drops by 50%, it’s barely even going to be noticed. However, if it goes to where we think it can, then your portfolio is going to be looking pretty dang good. Now, if you’re crazy and you have a lot of conviction like I do, you might want 30, 40, 50% allocation to bitcoin. Now, it also depends on how much money you have.
So there’s other factors. You need to figure that out for yourself. Buy it. Then you need to secure it and hold it. The revolutionary feature of bitcoin is that I can custody it and secure it and store it myself. And so you should certainly do that. I recommend using a hardware wallet to do that. Plenty of help online. Check that out. Go to BTC sessions on YouTube. He can show you how to do that.
And then again, like I said, should I buy it now, just throw my cash in as a lump sum? Or should I average in over time? It depends on where your conviction is. But this video has gone long. That’s about as much as I can put into it right now. But I’ll make more videos. Let me know which of these you want me to dig into more. Drop those down below.
Now, if you really want to know more about the probability of will we really go to this type of a bitcoin standard, or will we go to another option, like a central bank digital currency, using what the brand new project imbridge is, then you might want to watch this video that I did right here. Otherwise, let me know what you think. Leave me a comment down below. Hit the thumbs up button if you like it.
If you don’t, thumbs down. That’s okay. At least tell me why in the comments down below. Subscribe if you’re not subscribed. And that’s what I got to your success. I’m out. .
See more of Mark Moss on their Public Channel and the MPN Mark Moss channel.
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