➡ The article discusses a surge in gold inflows into the COMEX (Commodity Exchange) due to importers trying to bring in as much gold as possible before potential tariffs on gold importation come into effect. This has led to record amounts of gold being imported, with January 2025 seeing the second largest month of registered gold inflows ever. The increase in open interest (contracts) is also attributed to these importers, who are expected to close their contracts through delivery, which won’t affect the gold price. The article also mentions a potential financial crash due to the treasury running out of money and the debt ceiling needing to be raised.
➡ The price of gold is rising due to increased demand and potential tariffs, with record deliveries expected. The U.S. Treasury has hit its debt ceiling and is spending down its account at the Federal Reserve, which could take about four months. Once the account is depleted, the debt ceiling will need to be raised, and the Treasury will need to raise funds, likely from bank reserves. This could lead to a banking crisis, and the author hopes for social and political changes before this happens.

I’d just like to have some of those gold bars. Sometimes the bar will eat you. That some kind of eastern thing? Increases in open interest are probably also tariff dodgers that are trying to get physical gold before the tariffs come in. Well hello there my friends, Raffia here from the end game investor with this week’s silver report and though it looks like things are calm in the gold market and the silver market and prices meandering and a range and we’re almost at all-time highs in gold and we’re nowhere in your all-time highs in silver and it’s kind of boring and Bitcoin took all the show.

There’s a lot going on underneath the surface. It’s boiling. It’s simmering. Can you do both things? I think boiling is simmering but I’m not sure. I do cook but I’m not so good with the terminology but anyway what is going on? It’s a lot of stuff. It’s really cool. It’s very interesting and it’s a lot of records being broken right now in the back end of the gold market. We’re going to start with the second biggest month of COMEX registered gold inflows ever in January 2025. This last week was the largest weekly registered gold inflow ever on the COMEX.

Maybe I don’t have the exact numbers but I drew a little line that shows all the bars and I’ll show you the bars and you can determine if it’s the second biggest or the biggest but it doesn’t really make much of a difference. What is the point of all these record deliveries going on in gold registered warrants on the COMEX? It’s a tariff dodge. Thanks to Chris Marcus who put a few videos out on this on his channel. Check them out. Gold importers are using the COMEX to import as much gold as they can before any tariffs on gold importation come into effect and that is leading to the record inflows of gold into the COMEX rivaled only by the March 2020 lockdowns.

That is why gold open interest has increased by 130,000 contracts over the course of January. This does not count the spot deliveries that have happened in January which is not an active delivery month but still there are record amounts of deliveries for an inactive month in the gold futures market. There’s never been a month like this. Something big is boiling or simmering. I think we went through that before. This is the difference between a simmer and a boil. Extraordinary accounting measures began yesterday. Extraordinary. Extraordinary. Extraordinary. Once the treasury spends its account down at the Fed they will have no more money and the debt ceiling will have to be raised and then the treasury will dump a whole bunch of bills on the market and there will be no reverse repos to fill in those orders and so the dollars will have to come from bank reserves which are busy funding the repo market and we have two trains coming at each other and they’re going to crash.

While open interest in the gold market has risen about 133,000 contracts in January the price might not fall when this open interest falls down again as it usually does because well I’m speculating but I believe this extra open interest is by actors who want to import gold and are opening contracts to import gold into the COMEX and so this open interest will be closed through delivery rather than closing of positions or selling the futures which pushes the price down whereas deliveries tend not to because once you get the gold for the contract that closes the contract without affecting the price.

But anyway let’s go to this week’s slides brought to you by MySubstack which is on endgameinvestor.substack.com. The last subject I covered is why a Bitcoin reserve is stupid and it’s like terminator logic as to how the terminator started which is based on itself which is impossible because Bitcoin is at the top of the derivative pyramid and the derivative of a dollar cannot back the dollar itself that is a client bottle a mobius strip an impossibility and it is going to fall. But anyway on with this week’s silver report also brought to you by the dirty man safe if you want to hide your gold and silver underground in case there’s a fire in your city as there was in LA the dirty man safe is fireproof because fire doesn’t burn dirt and that’s where you put it.

Link in the description below use the code endgame10 at checkout for 10% off and support this channel. The first thing we have is the second biggest month of registered gold inflows ever this bar here this blue bar shows the monthly increase in registered supplies registered of course is gold for delivery against contracts meaning it’s for sale against features contracts eligible gold is not as privately owned both are increasing registered gold even faster which means that whoever is importing this gold expects to deliver it into a contract otherwise they would remove the warrant from it.

So we have here it looks about to be between 0 and 5 million so that’s about 2.5 million ounces that was only bested by I think this is May or June 2020 when we had just below 5 million ounces but this is the second biggest importation of registered gold supplies ever and if we go to the weekly charts we can see that this week was just about 2 million just below 2 million ounces this is pretty nuts 2 million ounces of gold and it touched that barely in one of the months of 2020 this could be maybe May somewhere around April or May of 2020 I don’t know which one is bigger this one or that one because the resolution is not big enough for me to tell but you know what it doesn’t really matter this week what is happening is that this is a tariff dodge gold importers are trying to get away from the tariffs of the Trump administration which will tariff everything that comes to do the country probably including gold bullion but that has not been enacted yet so these traders are trying to import whoever they are they’re trying to import gold before the tariffs come into effect and that is creating record amounts of gold importation physical gold importation into the COMEX.

If we go to this slide over here this shows 133,000 new contracts in January on the COMEX see here and the 2025 begins we’re at about 450,000 right now we’re at 571,387 so that’s about 132,000 new contracts and this does not include the deliveries that have already been made and I’ll show you that in the next slide my point here is that we usually see after a surge in open interest like this in gold the open interest falls down as it falls down what happens is that price falls with it I don’t think that’s going to happen this time because these increases in open interest are probably also tariff dodgers that are trying to get physical gold before the tariffs come in and you know what those that open the contracts they don’t have to pay the tariff the ones that import the gold have to pay the tariff so I think people are importing gold into the COMEX in order to fulfill delivery on these contracts so as the interest open interest on this falls I think these deliveries are going to be made and it’s not going to affect the price what affects the price as open interest falls is that longs sell their positions rather than taking physical delivery and because they sell their positions the dollar price moves but on delivery the dollar price does not move the contract is satisfied by gold being delivered so I don’t think that that open interest falling is going to affect price negatively here and if we move to the next slide here we can see the monthly delivery this is 15,642 isolated this doesn’t look like anything special but this is a non-active delivery month so 15,642 deliveries is a record all-time record for gold deliveries in a non-active delivery month right there’s active delivery months they they happen like every two or three months it’s usually like december and then uh march or april i think june is a popular one but this is a non-active delivery month so open interest is usually small this is the most deliveries ever made for a non-active delivery month which means that importers are trying to take delivery now and they want to do this before the tariffs kick in now we’re going to compare this with the open interest situation in gold during the 2020 crisis the lockdown crisis what happened here is we had near record high open interest and then it slammed down uh from about 750,000 to 450,000 let’s just say 300,000 contracts whatever that is it’s not exactly that but it was a huge fall in open interest and that was the gold crash that we all remember and and price went down from about 1700 to 1450 price went down from about 1700 to 1450 somewhere around there and we had this huge smash in open interest we also had record deliveries now you could say well maybe that’s going to happen this time we’re going to have a smash in open interest and a smash in the price and record gold deliveries however back then there was a huge dollar crisis a dollar panic because the world was shutting down and people couldn’t service their dollar debts that’s not happening this time we’re not quite in a dollar crunch yet so that means that there’s not a rush for dollars there’s just a rush for gold before tariffs get in the way and so as open interest falls here as deliveries are taken for the active month which closes in about eight business days seven business days six business days something like that january 30th last day and open interest still about 250,000 contracts so i think that as we’ve seen record deliveries for a non-active delivery month we’re going to see record deliveries i hope in an active delivery month in all time i think the record is 55,000 warrants delivered i think it’s going to be more if people are really trying to get around tariffs for gold importations now the next subject i want to go into is a little bit on timing we have the extraordinary accounting measures beginning yesterday the treasury has announced that the debt ceiling has been hit and now it is spending down its account at the fed and those dollars are going to go back into bank reserves so the last time this happened january 25th 2023 at 572 million dollars 572 billion dollars excuse me down to 48 billion by may 31st 2023 so that’s about four months january february march april may it took about four months for the account to be emptied so we can expect we’re at around the same level right now uh about 600 billion dollars it shows here uh maybe a little bit higher than that but it’s gonna take about three or four months depending on how fast they spend down the balance and once that balance is spent down they’re gonna have to raise this debt ceiling once they raise the debt ceiling this black rectangle here this was the extraordinary measures that i showed in the previous uh in the previous slide so the extraordinary measures happen in this rectangle and you can see the blue line here is the treasury’s account at the fed as they spent down that balance reverse repos were at about two point something trillion dollars and then once the treasury’s account ran out and they raised the debt ceiling the treasury raised a whole bunch of cash over here from about 48 billion to about 800 billion so let’s just say 750 billion dollars and reverse repos fell by about 1.4 trillion dollars in that time you see now the difference is there are no more reverse repos at least they’re not substantial i think they’re below 100 billion they’re not really significant anymore that has been emptied so if the treasury wants to raise a whole bunch of money after the debt ceiling is raised where are the dollars going to come from last time they came from reverse repos this time there are none so where are they gonna have to come from they’re gonna have to come from here the bank reserves this is the three trillion point something bank reserves i think it’s about three point three trillion now the crisis line is three trillion which i’ve shown before that is the number we were at during the march uh 2023 regional banking crisis if we break below this line for any substantial amount of time let’s say a month or two uh we’re going to have the final crisis on our hands in qt as that continues is going to bring that closer and closer so what’s going to have to happen the treasury’s going to have to spend down its balance of about 700 billion dollars once that happens we’re going to raise the debt ceiling and once they raise the debt ceiling they’re going to have to raise a whole bunch of cash that’s not going to come from the reverse repos because they no longer exist it’s going to have to come from bank reserves and that’s going to bring bank reserves back down and it’s going to bring us through a crisis line and they’re going to have to stop qt and there’s going to be something in the repo market because the bank reserves support this market this is the repo volume this secured overnight financing volume the amount of money for treasuries that trade the trade hands every night it’s about 2.3 trillion dollars now it’s gone down since the end term but it’s going to head back up all those bankers there support this market if they have to support this market and they have to give money to the treasury as it sells bills after the debt ceiling is raised then you have two trains coming at each other from opposite directions and that causes the final banking crisis it’s definitely going to happen this year we’re already on trajectory for it i hope that before it happens there is enough time to fix the worst offenses social offenses and criminal offenses of the u.s governing system declaring two genders is a good start stopping wars is a pretty good idea i hope that happens and i hope trump has enough time to become the peacemaker that he said he wants to be to avert world war three and calm the world down before the end game hits and once it does there can be a real reset and hopefully as it does happen trump will be in office rather than some insane senile deep state aligned evil team of idiots this is rothie the end game investor please support this channel by signing up for my sub stack at the end game investor to learn why a bitcoin reserve is a retarded idea and support this channel get your hands on a dirty man safe your city could burn down any day now cities are burning down you don’t want to have a safe in your attic while your city burns down because looters will find it but they won’t find a dirty man safe in the ground use code end game 10 at checkout for 10 off and check out my patreon for religious lessons on monetary and economic topics at patreon.com slash end game investor for as little as three dollars a month and i’ll see you guys next week i’d just like to have some of those gold bars hmm hmm sometimes the bar will eat you that’s some kind of eastern thing
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