You kind of need two nuclear powers to go at it for that to happen. There’s much better chance, better or worse, you know it’s not good, but it’s a better chance of world war 3 breaking out between Russia and the United States over Ukraine. I still don’t think that will happen, but during the war I did suspend my own twitter account for my own psychological health. I will be bringing it back in the next few days. Now the war appears to be over, thank god, but today we will talk about very important things that are happening in the precious metals markets, in the oil markets.

June 13th when Israel began bombing Iran, was one of the craziest trading days in oil in history on some metrics. We’re going to talk about how we’re still flirting with a apocalypse with a clog in the repo market, repos to reserves ratio still sitting at around 80%. Question is at quarter end on June 30th, how high will the repo value be? Could we break through 2.9 trillion? Could we break through 3 trillion judging by the patterns over the last few months? Yes, we could and that means by August there could be finally the apocalypse that we’ve all been waiting for, which will kick off the Fed’s final QE round.

There’s 366 billion dollars to go in the treasury’s account at the Fed and despite the consolidation in the gold price, the yearly trend line is still intact above the 50 day moving average at 33.15. Gold is still in good shape and another round of rallying could begin at any time. We’re going to talk about the question, why does gold not move in times of war? The quick answer is that gold moves inversely with credit and credit becomes more valuable in war. The inflationary periods have to happen after war is over and then you have to deal with the inflation of the war.

It usually doesn’t respond well to war itself and we’ll see that going back to the 2003 Iraq invasion and October 7, 2023 when the Middle East war began. And finally, we’re going to talk about platinum. This month has seen the largest amount of platinum deliveries on the comics for an inactive platinum contract. The active platinum contract goes to delivery in three business days. There isn’t much platinum at the comex and there seems to be record demand for a non-active contract would translate, which could translate into record demand for the active contract that goes to delivery in three business days.

In any case, we’re going to start directly with the slides. This is my proprietary chart. You’ll probably only see it on the end game investor. I talk about it a lot on substacks. Subscribe there, link in the description below. The blue line is the ratio of repos that take place every night between banks and the amount of reserves, bank reserves available that these repos are getting funded with. So you see the black line, this little spike over here is the apocalypse of 2019 when the Fed had to begin the QE round that extended through COVID and up to here, I think was when QE finally stopped.

And now as it is stopped, we see this ratio going higher and higher and higher again, which means that the amount of bank reserves that are taken up by repo trading keeps going higher and higher. And this is the apocalypse line. We haven’t crossed it yet on the weak average, but we’ve getting really, really close. And this is going to keep trending higher as the bank reserves run out. So we should get there in the next few weeks, finally. And then we’re going to see what happens then it’s going to be.

Just to get into the specifics of this, where do I get 80%? Well, there are $2.74 trillion being traded in the repo market every night. As of June 23rd, you can see the number here, $2.74 trillion. The amount of bank reserves available is $3.406 trillion. This number is a little bit inflated because the treasury cannot raise money from bank reserves to raise its cash balance because there is a debt ceiling that is still in place. And that has to be risen, raised, that has to be raised in what’s it’s raised. They’re going to take more money from the bank reserves.

And this number is going to shrink. Well, this number, the $2.74 trillion is going to rise and we’re going to hit some kind of wall. That’s coming in the next few weeks, guaranteed. I don’t know how many weeks, but it’s weeks, not months. $366 billion to go. This is the treasury’s cash balance of $366.52 billion. You can see here that this little blip up was the rise in the treasury’s cash balance after tax day, which was April 15th, 2025. They have pretty much spent their entire blip up in the cash balance and they’re back now at $383 billion on the weekly.

But now it’s below that $366 billion. So here was the last debt ceiling raise. We’re about about $50 billion. Here was the one before that. So you can see here the time from here to here is shorter than the time from here to the next debt ceiling raise, which is going to be as this blue line falls to zero. And believe me, it’s coming soon. And once it does, we’re going to see some monetary fireworks. And that is what’s going to propel gold and silver, especially silver. As I think that ratio, the gold is a ratio is going to fall not immediately to 15 to one, but somewhere, I think it’s around 95.

It’s going to add to 85, 75, maybe 65. I think that’s where it was in 2021. Silver is still the play to make here. What is happening with gold? It seems to not have been doing so well over the past few weeks. It’s in a consolidation. It’s completely normal. The uptrend line since the beginning of the year, this is the year to date trend line from 2025. You can see the black line here. It was touched a few times in April and once in May, and it’s not been touched again. I think it’s getting close.

I think this is a day or two behind this chart, but I think the 50 day moving average is 3315. We’re above that now. I think it’s about 3340, but the trend line is somewhere around 3,300 or something like that. We have not gotten there yet. We could touch it again. I don’t expect this trend line to break or if it breaks, it will only break very briefly. The gold is still moving higher, trending higher. I wouldn’t worry about it. This slide is brought to you by Kootenai Silver, which I own. It’s a little K-O-O-Y-F in the US and a little K-T-N in Canada.

You can see here on a chart of Kootenai, which is in the candles. These candles over here, I’ve overlaid it with the silver price. You can see that the price of Kootenai moves up and down more or less with the silver price. So as silver moves higher in dollar terms, so will Kootenai silver on a more leveraged basis because it’s a junior, minor, junior explorer. If you are interested in junior explorers, then Kootenai I believe is a decent pick, at least for myself, that you have to do your own research. I don’t recommend anything.

The basic logic here is that Kootenai just came out with a maiden resource estimate, which is the first step towards developing a mine for eventual takeover by a bigger silver miner. Next step they have to do is a preliminary economic assessment, which will be within the next 12 months. And then we’ll see if they can get a bite by a bigger mining company. And that will benefit shareholders very well. And obviously at silver heads higher, so will Kootenai. So if you’re interested in explorers, then Kootenai is worth looking into, let’s say. Let’s talk about gold and war.

I got a few messages asking me why gold has done nothing on the prospect of World War Three when Trump bombed the Fordo and Natanz and Bouchard nuclear, whatever they are in Iran, who knows what’s there when that was bombed. And they use a B2 bomber to make giant holes in the ground. People thought that maybe World War Three was starting. I didn’t think so. I was not very happy about America’s involvement, but I’m very happy that it’s not going any further. I said that World War Three is not going to start.

I don’t think it’s going to start, but why didn’t gold react? Well, you can see the history of gold’s reactions to war, as you can see here, that March 20th, 2023 can see this line. This is when Bush two invaded Iraq. Gold did pretty much nothing. It was in a downtrend. The invasion of Iraq did not affect it much at all. You can see here gold did little on October 7th, 2023, when the Middle East war between Israel and Hamas broke out, which is now spread through between Israel and Iran. We’ll see if that’s over for now, but you can see on October 7th or October 7th was a Saturday or a Sunday, whatever it was, it was a weekend.

And it was a Saturday, actually. So the first trading day after October 7th, gold went up a little bit, but it wasn’t really recognizable as anything related to a war here. You can see this size candle also was over here and over here. And this was just regular action for gold. It looked like we were in some kind of an intermediate cycle low here. So coming off of intermediate cycle lows, you should expect strong action in the price. And I don’t think this had anything to do with October 7th itself or the prospect of war in the Middle East.

So gold does not react very well to war. What it does react to is credit events and monetary developments, which usually take place after a war is finished and all the inflation that took place during the war has to be dealt with. That’s when gold and silver start to move a lot higher. Remember that the gold to silver ratio went to 15 to one in 1919, which is after world war one and the inflation post-civil war happened in 1865, which was after the war between the States or the civil war, whatever you want to call it.

And all in all, so far this war between Israel and Iran cost America very little. What’s going to cost it a lot more is the big, beautiful bill that now has to be passed near record oil trading volume on June 13th. One thing that the war between Israel and Iran did affect was oil trading, not in terms of price, but in terms of volume. You can see here that oil did go up a little bit, but then it came back down. You can see this long candle here and it was pinned at around 77, I think was the high, something like that.

And then it went back down below 75 that same day. But you can see here there was something special about that day on June 13th. When Israel attacked Iran, you can see here that the trading volume was above 3 million contracts for the day. Now in context, that is an enormous number. We’re going to see that the exact number of contracts traded on that day. This is from the CME website was 3.608676 million. So 3 million, 608,676 contracts. You can see that was highlighted on this bar over here. Now, where does that fit into the rest of oil trading history? You can see here, I put the line of the volume over here where that circle is.

And the last time that this line was broken, only twice was it broken, meaning this is the third highest daily trading volume for oil contracts in a day ever. The biggest day for oil trading was the day that oil went down to negative $35 a barrel in the wake of the COVID lockdowns. You can see here that the Russian invasion of Ukraine did not do much for the volume. It had a little bit of a spike. That’s true. A little bit above 2 million contracts on that day. So there was a spike, but it was nothing compared to hear what happened.

What happened, I believe, was that there was a binary situation. Either Iran would have blocked the Straits of Hormuz, which would have blocked 20% of the oil of the world’s oil traveling through that straight every day, which would have brought oil up to maybe $150, $200. Who the hell knows? I don’t know. I’m not an oil expert, but it would have been very bullish for the oil price. Or the Iranians wouldn’t do anything, and perhaps their regime would fall, and then it would become Western friendly, and then you’d have to take off all the sanctions, and the Iranian oil would go through the market, through the global markets, and that would be very bearish for the oil price.

We saw that Trump did put out a post on Truth Social that the Chinese can now buy oil from the Iranians. It was a carrot and stick approach, so this is bearish for the oil price, and we can see that oil went back down to the mid-60s. The downtrend line for oil is still intact. You can see that downtrend line since 2022. Over here on the Russian invasion, it’s still continuing down, and we’re now back down to the 60s. Though it was tagged on the Israeli attack on Iran, it did not break.

The downtrend line is still intact. The last subject in the silver report, let’s talk about little silver. That is platinum. This here is the 2020 platinum deliveries. You can see here this was an all-time record October 2020, 5,753 deliveries, but the point of this is to show you that outside of the active contracts, really, the whole situation changed here on the lockdowns April, May, June 2020, and here we had a huge spike in platinum deliveries, 4,131 and 5,753, which is the all-time record, but outside of these active contracts, very few platinum deliveries, only 8, right, 75, very, very little.

We can see in 2021 a similar pattern. At the bottom here, you have 2,000, 2,074 deliveries, 3,122, 3,579, and 2,676, so these are still very high numbers compared to the pre-COVID days, but the point is in these inter contracts that are not active, only a few hundred deliveries. Now, what is happening now is something very different that we’re on June 24th towards the end of this month, and this is an inactive month. We have 1,167 platinum deliveries for an inactive month. That is an all-time record. We’re seeing similar things in the inactive gold and silver contracts this year since the gold and silver rallies began earlier in 2025, so we could end up with some problems in platinum deliveries.

We’ll see. We have seen the record gold deliveries that were a few months ago, 76,000, came immediately after record deliveries for the non-active contract in the month before. I’ve always had a suspicion that problems in the deliveries in the precious metals would begin with platinum or palladium just because the supply there is so low compared to gold and silver. The supplies and comics for gold and silver are both very, very high, not so much for platinum or palladium. So before we have a gold or silver default, we could have a platinum or palladium default.

Right now, the candidate looks to be platinum. That is where the price is moving. So if you want a little bit of platinum, I don’t think it’s such a bad idea, but I wouldn’t load up on this stuff because it is very volatile. In any case, this is Rafi of the Endgame Investor with this week’s Silver Report, sponsored by Kootenai Silver symbol, K-T-N in Canada, K-O-O-Y-F in the US. Check it out in the link in the description below, and I’ll see you guys next week. And hopefully the bombing and the war is over.

See more of Rafi Farber on their Public Channel and the MPN Rafi Farber channel.