➡ Vince Lancy’s Morning Markets and Metals report discusses various financial and precious metals news. The report highlights Michael Oliver’s belief that gold and silver will dominate over stocks. Citibank’s analysis suggests a shortfall in physical metal to meet increasing demand, particularly in gold. The report also mentions a potential shift in market dominance, with gold and silver leading over stocks.
➡ The article discusses the potential for gold prices to remain stable in 2026, unless a continued production deficit leads to a price increase. It also mentions the importance of the US dollar as a global reserve currency and the factors that could cause it to lose this status. The author advises focusing on the Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) and Federal Reserve meeting minutes for economic insights. Lastly, the author suggests a cautious approach to gold trading, warning against bullishness unless certain market conditions are met.

The story that we sent out this morning is Michael Oliver’s MSA. His 360 report over the weekend, which touches on every market, has a small section on gold and silver. Small but important section on gold and silver, since stocks are just cracking right now. And he believes that market dominance over stocks is here. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancy. Where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Oh, good morning everyone. I’m Vince Lancy. It’s 809 Monday morning.

Okay, there’s the front page. Over the weekend, we were a little busy. Front and center, you have the Hartnett Report, which is completely about equities. Very actionable if you’re an equities person. We would recommend you read Zero Hedge Breakdown of that, which is not our topic at all. We’re trying to focus it on how it does and does not affect precious metals and money in general. But there’s a lot of good information there. Essentially, if you distill everything he says down, it comes down to short anything that’s AI-based, but his preference is bonds.

Top left-hand side, City Bank had a slide deck out, making their announcement why they think gold. Basically, it’s an early 2026 analysis. This is what we think for 2026. And it’s very good. I would say it’s on par fundamentally with Goldman and Bank of America and the Deutsche Bank report in terms of saying this is what we think is going to happen from here. Their focus as opposed to the other banks is on the fact that there is a shortfall of physical metal that’s available to satisfy the physical demand that’s here and increasing.

When you really, really boil it down, I want to make this clear. Every bank has their own approach to why you should be buying metals. FX hedge, central bank hedge, inflation, debasement, Fed compromise, that’s the JPM approach. City’s approach is, even though they’re not very well-known outside of the commercial area, City’s approach is very similar to what the problem is in silver. So, silver for the last 10 years, there’s been a deficit of production, and we’ve been drawing down above ground supplies. No one’s making that parallel with gold yet until Citibank.

So what Citibank is essentially saying is that mining production is a shortfall, and we see it being a shortfall for the next three years at least, it seems that way. And in the meantime, you have to call on stocks, which is basically saying you have to bid it up to get people that are long and to sell it. And well, essentially, they’re using the same concept that has been proven true in silver. There’s not enough production to satisfy physical demand, whether it’s industrial, monetary, I don’t care. That’s what they’re saying. And I think it’s a novel approach because gold’s not an industrial metal, but it’s worth reading.

Where did Russia’s 2025 gold production go? You’ll probably be reading about that in the mainstream media in about a year or two, maybe, facetiously. But the story that we sent out this morning is Michael Oliver’s MSA. His 360 report over the weekend, which touches on every market, has a small section on gold and silver, small but important section on gold and silver, since stocks are just cracking right now. And he believes that market dominance over stocks is here. Those are our words. He’s talking about something called a structural change in dominance, whereas stocks led higher and gold followed while maybe you’re going to start seeing gold and silver higher, leading higher.

And that would be an example of stocks getting decimated, tech staying down, and miners bouncing. Same idea. That’s a structural comment on what you’ve been observing. So let’s start the market, start with the markets, and then we’ll get to that. Also, we’re going to have a special section at the end here in premium for listeners. We’re going to go through our version of the charts that make sense from our perspective, volatility versus momentum, to make sense of technically how to interpret his analysis from our neck of the woods. Okay. Ten year yields are unchanged offer.

The dollar is up 17. The S&P 500 is down 17. NASDAQ is down 101. The VIX is up one. Gold is up 50 cents. Silver is up 37, 35, 37. Off its highs, but still strong. Bit stronger all night. Copper is down two and a five cents. WTI is up 31. Natural gas is 426. Up a penny. Bitcoin up 580. Skating around on its lows. I don’t like that chart right now. Who does, right? Ethereum, palladium, volatile, up one, down five, depending on if you blink or not. Platinum up seven and change.

Gold silver down again in the 80 area. That’s a very important chart we’ll be talking about with the Michael Oliver report in mind and grains are all up 1%, 37 basis points, 99 basis points, soy corn wheat. Okay. Let’s get to the main show here. All right. So Michael Oliver structural work shows gold and silver entering a major secular turn. Gold is breaking out against the S&P, signaling the shift in allocation away from equities. Silver is positioned for an even larger move once its momentum ceiling clears. So this is the beginning of paraphrasing him a generational rotation into metals.

And who are we to disagree? Briefly, Jordan Roy Byrd and I have been covering gold versus 6040. And that broke out 6040 portfolio. And that broke out about six months ago. And then silver versus 6040. And that broke out. And then he was covering miners versus 6040 and things that I don’t normally look at, but he was saying pretty much all systems ago. So he’s saying that the breakouts are there very rounding bottom oriented type of approach as well. And the 6040 was took a long time. Michael’s approach from my point of view is momentum oriented.

And so while Jordans has said, okay, we’ve broken out, Michael’s seems to be saying that the acceleration is nigh. And the number 60 is very important to him. And that is gold divided by the SPX. So the gold, gold market in the stock market terms, I think he uses futures. No, I’m not sure, but we have our own chart and we’re going to add a little bit of tactical advice to that. If you’re going to, if you’re going to subscribe to what he’s saying, and we do subscribe to what he said. But that’s, that was set down in premium.

And I’ll give it to you in human terms. If gold divided by silver, I’m sorry, if gold divided by the S&P 500 settles over 60%, you have this big round and bottom that will be complete like a saucer bottom. And that would also coincide with a momentum breakout, not just a chart breakout for him. And momentum is a big thing for him. And when you see that chart hits gold versus stocks, then you go to the silver chart, gold versus silver. And you say, well, how does silver look relative to gold in terms of performance, if this is true, and you look to see if it’s going to lag or leave, he’s saying that it will lead.

And his contention is that people will say that silver goes down with stocks. And you’ve heard me say that a million times. Okay. And he’s saying that that’s not going to hold this time. So you will hear me say that silver will be slammed along with stocks because it’s an economic metal, because it’s an industrial metal, because of its industrial aspects. And I want you to that’s a tactical thing that I say to see how the markets behaving. It’s when silver doesn’t go down. After stocks get slim, then I raise my eyebrow, because that’s a sign of yet another correlation breaking see all the things that I focus on our correlations.

And when they break, so the dollar gold correlation, which broke three years ago, we told you the dollar gold correlation is breaking. No one is selling gold when the dollar strengthens anymore. Rates are going up. No one is selling gold, the rates are going up. And now we’re at the cusp. This is where I agree with my I agree with Michael, most everything here, we’re at the cusp of silver ignoring stocks. And so it goes from an industrial metal with monetary qualities to a monetary metal with an industrial kicker. And I wholeheartedly agree with this stuff that Michael’s talking about, or I would not be spending so much time talking about it with you.

Stay with us. We’ll go through the charts at the end. Renated post down. There’s milkshake versus gold, but the coming US China clash. That was a founder’s post. And it is about the fact that we think it’s going to be a China bond with gold implied versus a US bond with stablecoins about implied as your collateral going forward. And we go into how it should play out in terms of tactics and who’s going to do what, but we don’t predict the outcome. We just predict who’s going to do it. It’s a behavioral analysis.

6,000 walkthrough what it is, what it takes to get there. It should be noted that Citibank’s baseline, which they say they have low confidence in their baseline, is that gold is going to be flat for the year of 2026. Their upside is if this structural deficit of production remains the same and the world keeps stacking, we’re in trouble. It’ll go to 6,000. And then Hartnett, Santa Claus, that’s equity. Catherine Austen fits on the stablecoin control grid. We appreciate that because we think she’s an excellent plumber. A little bit depressing if you’re an Orwellian person, status of the US dollar is global reserve.

That’s a slide deck that breaks down on the qualities that make gold. It’s all the city of Gulf, right? That make dollar the global reserve currency. It’s in everyone’s hands. It’s got a great network, Swift. And the reason that’s very helpful if you’re a watcher these days, it’s one thing to say the dollar is going to zero. It’s another to say, if this breaks, it’s like a checklist of things that have to break for the dollar to lose global reserve status. And so we think it’s very important. Gold fits PM bid day for gold, worse week for banks moving forward.

There’s a chat. Thank you for participating. And we’ll throw some goodies in there as well today. Data on deck. I’m not sure what data is coming out, what’s not coming up. But PMIs are not government generated. So purchasing manager’s index. Hartnett says they’re going to be very important right now. And they are this week along with the Fed minutes of last month’s meeting and a couple other things. I haven’t looked closely yet, but you want to focus on PMIs, which are at various days during the week, and you want to focus on, I guess, maybe the Wednesday meeting, the Fed, the Fed’s minutes of their previous meeting are going to come out.

So you got a lot of manufacturing, a lot of things like that. Okay, so that’s it for me. Let me just do a quick chart look for you guys. Silver daily, there’s your depth equals distance, but we have to get above that. Gold, nowhere near getting above that, you should not be bullish gold. You can be bullish gold. I have bullish gold all the time, but you should be saying trading range, trading range. Let’s see if I have those lines up on this one. I don’t have those lines on this chart. Trading range, right? So you don’t think the mark, you don’t want the market to get below 3980.

Yeah, 3980 below 3980 gets you a retest of 3900 or 3880. That’s what I’m looking for here. And as much as I wanted to think this could be a measure move, it’s not, measure moves don’t occur when you have another high to get out of the way. You can’t rely on it, that’s what I’m saying. So we got above it, we got above all those lines, and I said, oh, this is great. And then we got right back below it and boom, you’re done. So think trading range again. That’s my impression. All right, catch you later.

Well, thanks for watching this morning’s markets and metals with Vince. We sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here. Hope you enjoyed the show and we’ll see you again tomorrow. Please note that this video is not intended as legal license, financial trading advice, and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions, and thanks for watching. [tr:trw].

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