➡ The article discusses the possibility of a silver shortage due to increasing industrial usage and potential increase in retail demand. However, it suggests that before an outright shortage, there would likely be a price adjustment. The article also touches on political issues, including criticism of the latest budget proposals and the behavior of key figures. Lastly, it mentions potential economic challenges, such as more frequent supply shocks and a possible increase in the inflation mandate.

You are going to see a crack in the bond market, okay? It is going to happen. And I tell this to my regulator, some of you in this room. And there you have it. Let’s hear that again. Well, hello there, my friends. Chris Marcus here with you for Arcadia Economics on Wednesday, June 4th, just a little bit afternoon. And in addition to looking at some silver vaulting inventory data, as well as a few other things gold and silver related, we also did have some rather stunning comments from Jamie Dimon. I mean, now on one hand, not stunning given what we see happening in the world, but interesting how a lot of prominent figures are all of a sudden starting to sound like gold and silver investors have for the past anywhere from a couple months to several decades.

And we will share what he said. And here, a quick look first at the gold price, where if we go back to the one-week chart, which doesn’t seem to want to load just yet, there it is now. Or no, that’s the one-day chart. You can see it was a bit lower this morning down to $33.70 and then a bit of reversal closing in on $3,400 right afternoon on Wednesday. So let us take a quick look and back out. There is your one-week chart. So a little bit of a sell-off and then keeps going.

Pretty consistent pattern we’ve seen for the last year and a half where we’ve had the sell-offs yet the rally has continued. Pretty much the exact opposite of what we saw from let’s call it 2013 until 2019 or so, where you’d see a sell-off and price would stay down for quite a while. Let’s refresh this one to get our updated silver price, down seven cents right now. So not terribly big moves in gold or silver, especially relative to what we’ve been witnessing recently. And a quick look at our bond yields. Just under four and a half percent again.

So there you can see on the one year, pretty much back to where we were a year ago. Now as you can see that was significantly higher than where we had been. And for anyone who remembers that, decade of zero percent interest rates, there we are with the 10-year down to $150 in 2019. Quite a ways it’s come since then and obviously that will have impact on the gold and silver markets, especially because one of the reasons that we’re seeing this, not just a renewed interest in gold in particular, but seeing large institutions and central banks buy the stuff, not just make YouTube videos and whatnot.

And I’ve been warning about issues with the treasury and how this debt situation was stacking up to me since, well, I started learning about it in 2009. Maybe it took me a couple of months before I was telling everyone about gold and silver. Yet nonetheless, at the heart of that was underlying all of this, the issues with the US debt market, which gee, since 2009, quite a pile we’ve added. And in either case, no longer am I alone in this one because here’s from Jamie Dimon who a couple of weeks ago was saying that mild recession, that’s the best case scenario.

But he was out and had some more things to say this week, which, well, we’ll just take a listen here. You think bond vigilantes are back? Yeah. Right off the bat there. And I know some people don’t like when I stop and make my comments, although that’s what I’m going to do for the next minute or so. Fast forward a minute if you guess. Then you’ll see he’s not sugarcoating things very direct in what he says here. We will continue on. These are very large numbers. You’ve seen it a little bit. You had the crack in the bond market and COVID a little bit.

The government did the right stuff, then they massively overdid both spending and QE. We borrowed and spent $10 trillion from 2020 to today. Okay, that and you heard the numbers before. We also bought 4 trillion of your securities on top of the 4 trillion we bought in the first go round. Those numbers are true globally, not quite as big as ours, but the QE of us was 8 trillion. The QE of the rest of the world is another 8 trillion or something like that. You’re talking about huge sums of money. We don’t really know the full amount of money we can put into that portfolio right now.

We don’t really know the whole amount someone else that I get at Gold and Silver Investors. We get excited. I mean the chief of the Biggest Banks saying the same things you’ve been hearing on this channel, other places that have similar ideas or mentality. But here it is. On Bloomberg being broadcast to an institutional audience and just wait though it’s I think I’m done with my last pause here here comes the highlight bond dealers which Gary mentioned you know inventories are much smaller than used to be parts because of rules regulations and and you are going to see a crack in the bond market okay it is going to happen and I tell this to my regulator there’s someone who in this room and there you have it let’s let’s hear

that again see a crack in the bond market okay it is going to happen you’re going to see a crack in the bond market it is going to happen it could play it again but I won’t and if you really want to hear him say it again you can just rewind this a couple seconds but interesting it reminds me the same way that Rick Rule phrased the dislocation that he saw in the silver market back in 2021 and also he said it’s going to happen it’s a matter of when rather than if it’s very similar language to what Jamie is saying here and by the way in case you have not seen that one I would highly recommend it and if you stick around to the end I will link to that so you can check it out because his comments as someone who is one of the direct participants during one of the more significant market events in the silver market in the past five or ten or years or so and so you’ll want to take a look at that was similar to what Jamie’s saying about the US bond market which is what we’ve been saying and what you’re seeing happen and also what it seems like some large international creditors are saying and

feeling and thinking so either case there are the comments from Jamie Diamond quick look at a few other highlights and silver related notes here I did promise inventory data it’s interesting here you can see silver now we saw gold start coming back out of the COMEX depositories after the massive amount of gold and silver had gone in when the whole tariffs that never happened to affect silver were worried about thing all that worry got shipped there and then nothing but we saw a bit of that gold bit more of the gold come out now here the silver the amount of silver that has come out is quite minimal especially I’ll back out to the five year there so you can see here’s the that’s in December and what we went from about 300

million ounces to 500 million ounces like the 500 3 million ounces and now we’re down to 495 so I think about 10 million ounces has come out over the since the peak obviously still a lot more in there than had been although before that you know here you can see how a lot of that came from the LBMA here the vault holdings and you see that’s probably December November December there they don’t make this as easy as I would have liked but you can see 850 million ounces got down to 711 so about 140 million ounces so that was a lot of the silver that came into the COMEX vaults you can also see interesting picture in Shanghai where all of them start declining right around that 2021 silver squeeze so Shanghai it may be a

little bit before with the pink what is stored for the Shanghai futures exchange and the black what is stored in the Shanghai gold exchange but you can see that here well this is in tonnage but you see they had 70 7,500 tons now down to 2,200 so about a third of what everything that was in there in 2021 were about a third over in China here again you can see this was got up to 1.18 is somewhere in there the peak and down to just over 700 and again here is the combined this is registered and eligible for COMEX and just because I know people like looking at registered which I do too here you can see we have not seen anything really come out of registered yet and here we’re back in the days about almost two years ago how

time has flown where we got under 30 million ounces in registered and I don’t think there’s like panic alarm going on yet but there’s certainly a lot of talk saying hey these are getting kind of low could we be on the verge of an issue and similar to how I like to phrase are we headed towards a shortage of silver well I’ll distinguish shortage in another outcome in just a moment but I mean with both of these situations here there’s time on the clock and as you saw events changed and a lot of silver came in now down to or actually no it did come down recently down to 158 yes as we see here has been a drop in registered so I stand corrected but anyway I guess the other thing that I just mentioned in terms of a shortage or another

outcome I would expect before you reach an overt shortage that there would be a price adjustment because let’s say that the deficit keeps eating into the inventories until at $35 you’re not getting enough metal now if the price goes up to $50 you’ll get now what amount your guess might be as good as mine but you’re gonna get some more amount of silver not everyone’s gonna sell but there are some people who sell just like we’ve seen a lot of silver selling at the $30 price level so how long that would fund a gap to but one of the stages that I would imagine would be happening before if we now again could we reach a shortage well when you look at the way the mining picture is lining up right now along with the forecast that I read for the industrial usage especially if you ever have the retail silver market come back in and any sort of meaningful capacity where there’s been a lot of selling that reversed or if perhaps Jamie Dimon turns out to be correct and what he basically did a joke guarantee didn’t say there might be so if that happens and all of a sudden you have people calling

billion dealers again and the selling stops you know over a long enough time period where I would not say we’re like on the verge of a shortage tomorrow and certainly there’s playing a medal here in the COMEX you know that that’s about a year’s deficit maybe a little less depending on how the numbers stack out which I might add I will be excited to share with you soon I’m almost done with my silver report it’s become a little longer than expected but I think it’s I just share a bunch of data but answer the relevant questions that I think someone whether new or experienced in the silver market would find helpful and soon you’ll be able to find out for yourself but anyway a few last notes here this one was from well Rand Paul the thank you to Craig Hempe of TF metals so I might add is about to start listing so we’re gonna see silver chopper Ben on the side there we used to deal with my own break Craig and we’re gonna get a banner ad there and a silver chopper Ben in your loyal TF metals report subscriber well you’ll see that soon enough and anyway here he shared Rand Paul was not

thrilled with the latest budget proposals from the big beautiful bill and this one here’s Tom Woods you may know libertarian voice says Rand defended Trump all through Russia gate and in plenty of other cases when it was unfashionable to do so normal person response thanks Rand now let’s see if we can address your concerns instead we have screw you Rand and here’s Trump’s message Rand votes no on everything but never has any practical or constructive ideas his ideas are actually crazy losers the people of Kentucky can’t stand them this is a big growth bill now we’ll leave aside today I’ll say I still unclear of how the entire economic plan is gonna work so we’ll leave that aside but as someone who’s a citizen lives in America this just seems unnecessary especially given this you know that he did defend him and put his neck out and it’s like it did that that’s the part of Trump that I’m not a fan of the unnecessary and the flaming of situations saying the same thing about Jerome Powell okay maybe you think Jerome Powell is a loser but if you’re representing the country and it looks

like a complete circus that the two most important people at least one of them’s calling the other a loser is that the most presidential term to use is that the most presidential way to handle something just my thoughts I’ll leave that aside and wanted to point that out and also perhaps as we wrap up would mention that we do write about these things daily over at the Arcadia economics gold and silver daily substat which you can find if you can believe this at gold and silver daily dot substat comm or click that little thing that just popped up there and with that said you know the things we cover there here was Bloomberg reporting on how bond buyers are going on strike that was before sharing this one of Jamie Diamond saying

that it’s gonna crack the vigilantes are back also in your inbox you would get stuff like this where I’m surprised this didn’t get more attention in these the sources of financial media I read although Jerome Powell down here because he’s saying watch out if if the economy weakens we may be raising that 2% inflation mandate they also tossed in here we may be entering a period of more frequent and potentially more persistent supply shocks a difficult challenge for the economy in central banks so later somewhere in here he mentions how you know if if some of those things do happen that you know they may raise the inflation mandate and also that some of those things are incredibly likely to happen now of course keep in

mind that when it comes to that idea that there even is an inflation mandate and people just assume well Volcker and Greenspan and the others that’s a playbook they were running is not actually the case as Judy Shelton pointed out here regarding Paul Volcker his last autobiography good government he said he never accepted from either a moral Paul Volcker she’s talking about point of view or an economic point of view the logic of he said even low inflation he said it’s still skimming it’s it’s still taking away purchasing power and I love he said in the book my mother would see through that he meant it’s just such an obvious scam that he he was amazed that that was becoming a conventional thinking at central banks so that is the kind of good stuff you can get delivered to your inbox if you find these antics amusing and also the video I mentioned about Rick we did have a column about that although fortunately just stay right there and click on the video that is coming your way now
[tr:trw].

See more of Arcadia Economics on their Public Channel and the MPN Arcadia Economics channel.