I’ll see you there. They’re calling it the Trump Effect, and it looks like it’s about to do the unthinkable. Flip one of the most reliably blue states in the nation. We’re talking New Jersey. A recent Emerson poll found that President Trump is now officially more popular than their own Democrat governor, Phil Murphy. Trump is polling at 47% approval, all the while their governor is polling at just 40%. But many analysts are noting that this poll result isn’t just a quirk. It’s actually the tip of the iceberg of Jersey’s slow but sure shift to the right. That’s the opinion of a recent piece by Quantum Insights, one of the most accurate polling outlets of the 2024 election.

Trump’s rise in New Jersey is, quote, a symptom of the deeper disillusionment of a forgotten electorate. Compared to his dismal 38% approval in 2020, Trump has gained nearly 18 net points in five years. The self-anointed progressives who run Trenton and dominate Newark and Camden and Paterson may have the numbers on paper, but they are losing the pulse of the people. The Quantum Insights piece points to the astonishing drop in support that Kamala got back in November. Kamala won Jersey by barely six point margin, but that was a stunning 10 point drop from Biden’s margin in 2020.

Hillary got a comparable 10 point margin as well back in 2016. And as a result, Trump ended up flipping a number of counties long assumed to be safe for the Democrats. So we’re talking Gloucester County, Passaic, Atlantic, Cumberland, even Morris County. And in terms of voter registration trends, Republicans have been quickly outpacing Democrats since 2020. Republicans have added roughly one hundred and fifty two thousand voters in New Jersey on their voter rolls and near 10 percent increase. Whereas Democrats have only grown by about one hundred and twenty nine thousand. And again, this is in what’s been considered one of the safest blue states in the nation.

And we already saw the results of that voter registration advantage in 2021 in their gubernatorial race where Phil Murphy, who had won the governorship back in twenty seventeen by 14 points, he barely and I’m talking barely squeaked by to beat the Republican Jack Chittarelli, who literally came within a few thousand votes of doing the unthinkable. Now, just for reference, this was the same year Glenn Youngkin won in Virginia. That was the race that got all the attention and the money. But if the Republican Governors Association took that Jersey race just as seriously as Virginia with the same funding and campaign resources, I mean, I have no doubt Jack could have pulled that off.

And many analysts have been saying that that race was a canary in the coal mine for the Democrats. It was a political tremor that national media has largely ignored. But no longer. Four years later, with the twenty twenty five gubernatorial race coming up this November, the GOP ain’t ignoring Jersey no more. In fact, quite the opposite. They’re smelling blood. They think they can flip Jersey this year. And I’m going to show you exactly their strategy for how to do just that. But first, while the corrupt federal elites have been quietly building wealth through cryptocurrency, hardworking American patriots have been left behind.

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June 10th. Write that down. June 10th. That’s the Democrat primary. That’s the Democrat primary. And as Steve Malanga of the City Journal is noting, that primary is quickly shaping up to be a preview of the civil war that’s breaking out within the Democrat Party all across the country. Between the woke progressives and the more establishment liberals and it may indeed be the beginning of the end of the Democrats in New Jersey. All right. So what am I talking about? Well, case in point, guess who’s one of the front runners for the Democrat nomination for governor? Well, that would be none other than Newark Mayor Ross Baraka.

Now you’ll remember Baraka. He’s the same Newark mayor who got arrested after he and other Democrat activists breached nice facility in Jersey. He’s literally campaigning on how it’s legal to break the law, all the while it’s illegal and discriminatory to enforce it. That’s who’s leading the Democrats in the discriminatory primary. He’s put forward a highly progressive gubernatorial platform advocating for programs like universal basic income, higher taxes on the wealthy and corporations celebrating New Jersey’s reputation as an immigrant sanctuary. Now, running to his proverbial right, as it were, is someone like Democrat Steve Sweeney. He’s the former New Jersey Senate president who famously lost to Ed Durer, the truck driver.

Do you remember this back in 2021? Ed Durer crushed one of the most powerful politicians in all of Jersey and that insult to injury, he defeated him by spending less than $200 on his campaign. He actually filmed his campaign commercial on his iPhone. Well, Sweeney’s back and he represents the old Democrat establishment that actually hates these radical progressives like Baraka. But regardless, what Sweeney is banking on is traditional blue collar labor support to vault him to victory in a primary where other candidates are splitting the progressive vote. But he’s also seen as a loser who got clobbered back in 2021.

We’ll have to see if he can overcome that kind of stigmatization. But those are just two candidates in an already crowded Democrat primary where woke leftist progressives are battling it out with older establishment liberals, kind of like an AOC Chuck Schumer struggle. But whoever ends up winning the nomination, they’re going to have to face a very formidable Republican candidate in the likes of Jack Chittarelli, who again came within just a few thousand votes of actually winning the governor’s mansion back in 2021. Let’s just say, but for the record, the incumbent Democrat Governor Phil Murphy conveniently found a few extra thousand votes he needed to win.

I’ll leave it at that. But what the Democrats appear to be doing here is that they’re fighting over the crumbs that have been left to them from this massive political shift that’s happening all over the nation, but including Jersey. And we talked about the shift yesterday. We saw it in the latest analysis of data from the 2024 election by the data firm Catalyst in conjunction with the Cook Political Report. And they found that the Obama coalition has officially turned into the Trump coalition. This this this is the grim reality that is facing Democrats everywhere, including Jersey.

The Obama coalition has transformed into the Trump coalition. So young voters, the under 30 vote, Latinos, black men, they all shifted to the right and extraordinary numbers in 2024. In fact, we talked about this yesterday as well. Every single demographic, every age, every gender, every race, every income level, all of them shifted towards Trump. Every single one, the only two that shifted left were two subcategories. So blacks who were 65 and older and Asians between the ages of 30 and 44, they were the only two. And they only shifted left by one or two points. Every single other demographic shifted right.

And what these analysts concluded was that the Obama coalition, the coalition of younger voters, Latinos, along with center left whites, that coalition that gave Obama two back to back wins has transformed. It’s transfigured into the Trump coalition, the MAGA coalition. And this is largely because of two dynamics. On the one hand, Trump has siphoned off the working class that used to be the foundation for the Democrats. And at the same time, the Democrats have shot themselves in the foot by going so freaking woke. So you got the working class moving to the right and you got the woke moving the party to the left.

The Democrats have become a party of absurdity in the process. They’ve gone so far left that they’ve abandoned the super majority consensus and MAGA has swooped in as the official representative of that consensus. So here we are, bottom line. If on June 10th the Democrats nominate, say, Steve Sweeney, he is going to be dependent on a union and working class vote that is already largely defected over to the MAGA Republican Party. If on the other hand they dominate a far leftist like Baraka, I mean, then they’re going with the far left that leaves the common sense consensus for the taking.

Either way, the point is either way, if they go with the working class union based candidate, they’re going with a candidate that has largely lost that base, or if they go with the woke candidate, they’re going with a candidate that’s largely alienated the majority of the Jersey voting population. Either way, Jersey is for the taking. That’s the argument that’s being made here in the City Journal. So this upcoming November in Jersey, that’s going to be the test to see how far reaching the new Trump coalition really is. If even one of the bluest blue states in the nation falls under the Trump effect, heck, all bets are off.

New Hampshire, Maine, Minnesota, New Mexico, they’re all sure to follow. The Obama coalition has become the Trump coalition. And the Democrats have been left with nothing more than the crumbs. [tr:trw].

See more of Dr. Steve Turley on their Public Channel and the MPN Dr. Steve Turley channel.