And now, here’s Vince. Good morning everyone. I’m Vince Lancey, and this is the gold fixed market rundown. There’s a front page. We had about five posts out over the weekend filling your email box. Okay, so here we go. Markets. Take your emails are down too. The dollar is down six. SP500 is up 29. The VIX is 17.06, up 73. Gold is up five bucks, down over 20, and up over 20. So call it the middle of the range. Silver down six cents. The bullion banks are up to their tricks. Copper is five even, down three and a half cents.

Three and three-quarters cents. WTI up nine at $6,609. Natural gas is down almost 15. Four percent, $3.46. Bitcoin down to $6.66. Platinum and Pladium are the strong metals. They lead gold and silver higher. Pladium is up 19 at $11.49, and Platinum is up 18 at $13.55. You can see the rest there. Okay, today we need to get a little tactical. Gold fix is a big tent in terms of content, some deep dive analysis, some theory, some fundamentals, and a little smattering of technicals. But when the market does what it did last week, and you have a position on, you tend to obsess about the tactical.

And so I did that over the weekend, and I shared it with people, and I’m going to give you a summary and an outlook from that work that I did over the weekend. Hopefully it will guide you through the next price action, wherever that may be. Okay, so a little play by play this morning as our personal concern is if this growing confidence in short selling is a permanent swoon in the works, or will it morph into a massive opportunity to buy? The conclusion is right up front, a bear attack is starting, but China is still buying.

The game started last night, and we put out three posts this weekend to that effect. So we’re going to walk you through them in short order, so you get a feel for what’s going to come. All right. The first was on Friday, Goldman made an announcement to their institutional investors that they were tactically bearish, and they said, this is how to play the gold dip. And we posted that on Friday, advising them to be careful of a sell off in the immediate future. They advised buying some puts now to protect against short term drops and keep them positioned for the run to 3700 they expect by year end and 4000 by the first half of 2026.

That was Friday. Saturday, we did some work. Sunday, we sent to subscribers a deep dive entitled under 3270 CTAs will sell who will buy it. That was the problem, the question. Having seen some data, we concluded the following in a deep dive to premium subscribers. Gold faces near term pressure as CTA driven selling is expected to accelerate early next week. Sunday night. The key question now isn’t whether selling will happen. It will. It’s who will step in to absorb it. Now, finally, Sunday night came and with it, the selling we expected and we informed readers, thusly.

Gold withstands first wave of selling. Pretty self-explanatory. Gold came in as expected weaker and it was sold pretty hard. It cracked the level that we discussed in the previous post where CTAs were expected to liquidate 3270 3260. And some stop orders indeed went off. The question is, because it stopped, who bought it tonight down there? We would love it to be institutional Chinese buying like insurance companies or maybe a sovereign entity. We weren’t sure. But we’re going to get into the what happened last night now. But before we do that, we do have the bigger conclusion is sellers are back.

That while American hours may not be friendly and Chinese speculators, the formal buyers are vulnerable. The fundamental buying underpinning the market is still there. They may be more patient. But the day here is sovereign and central bank buying. They are by no means done buying trade war, ceasefire or not. China buying reemerged last night on the lows at the same time platinum was bid up. Now we have the full analysis in the three premium posts linked above. We’re going to go into that a little bit. I’ll show you some. It’ll be in the charts.

But coming soon, today, tomorrow, the next day, Sunday CFTC discussion was a really good one. We talked about a lot of participation from the founders as well. We talked about the CFTC report, which concluded that the banks are out of the penalty box for sure. And they’re trading the market like they usually do. And the biggest macro discretionary funds that we see have liquidated their options positions. Maybe they’re taking a break. Next, founders. We put out a piece yesterday because we talked about stablecoins. We got lucky and we saw a piece by JP Morgan.

We shared some of that with the company. Trump. Donald Trump’s plan A was to cut spending that we don’t need, doge and what have you, and take that money and spend it on what we do need, admirable, a good idea. And in between, you’d have to borrow a little bit more money because we are retooling our industry, retooling manufacturing. Now, if that fails, and I promise you, I’m not happy about it, but I promise you he will not get it done to the level that he wants to get it done.

If he gets some of it done, I’m happy. But as that fails, I have made it clear that Donald Trump will revert to the plan B. And the plan B is weaken the dollar. Keep what we can export cheap, cut more bilateral deals using the weaker dollar and big borrow and steal to make America great again. That’s bullish for gold. That’s it. There’s no way around it. That’s just pure spending inflation. The weaker dollar we’re seeing that manifested. As plan B becomes plan A, there’s another piece to this. If he cannot have his way in cutting spending, Doge was like, you know, nobody wants to stop spending, right? No congressman or politician wants to stop spending once they start spending.

So that didn’t get everything he wanted to get done. If Powell won’t cut rates on the monetary side, at least not as quickly as Trump wants him to, then he must spend. So we go from frugal trying to cut spending to shit. If I’m not going to get lower rates, then I’ve got to spend more. So it’s not straight up stimulus. Here’s $600. That’s fiscal spending, but it’s fiscal spending. He’s going to spend more because the only way to get us out of this, if we can’t cut spending and at the same time grow the economy internally, is to grow the economy by spending.

So it’s kind of like you’re halfway through hell. Keep going. And I think that’s a really important part. And the reason I’m spending so much time on this is because in 2016, when Trump was elected, I wrote a piece, a ghost written piece for Kitco. And the title was Trump will spend like a drunken sailor. And he did, but he wasn’t that drunk. He wasn’t horrible. But now I think we could get the Trump spending like a drunken sailor. Love him, hate him. I don’t care. It’s just going to make gold go up and the dollar go down.

And it really could fix the economy. Spend money to make money. That’s it. And much more. Let’s go to the charts and I’ll give you an idea what we’re looking at here. All right. So this is the gold chart. I kind of squished it in there. Now you may, you may remember I had three lines, one, two, three. And these lines go way back to here. This is when I first identified China buying and the banks that were long options were buying. They were just making a ton of money, scalping gamma. And I was very, actually started here.

And I said, this is the bottom line. And then it got below my level. And I thought it was the end of the world. It’s like, Oh, shit, China’s done buying at this level. Where’s their next level? Well, someone bought it here. And I went, okay, that’s good. And the market went back up and we had a couple of big ranges again. Now it got to the top. These lines just were. And so having forgot about these lines, I’m looking at my chart over the weekend, and that’s not up. And the markets here.

And I say, where are we going to stop? And I drew a line here. And I drew a line at the 100 day moving average, right? I’m just looking at the worst case scenarios. And I went, all right, let’s, let’s pull those old lines up. And there we are. And I went, yep. So why is that important? This is not a bragging moment. It’s important because if they bought it here, and they bought it here, and they bought it here, that’s not fun trading. That’s sovereign buying, either it’s a PBOC buyer, or it’s a Chinese wealth fund buyer, or it’s an insurance company buyer.

And all this buying came in during their hours. And it happened again. Conclusion, they’re not done buying at that level, which is really, really good. And my guess is the shorts who attacked it last night, CTAs, let’s sell it. This is the bullion banks, crack it, get it through a level, and let’s let the US selling just take it the rest of the way. Will they sell it? Not spoofing. They’re just kind of like trying to, they’re cutting for stops. And then they ran into the buying. And they went, oh, shit, let’s cover.

And they covered. Does that mean it’s over? We’re going up? It could. I think there will be more attacks when the market’s thin, like on a holiday, or when no one’s trading. But we’ll see. I’m encouraged. Now, if it cracks here, then I have to look at this and say, well, what the hell is going to happen here? So you’re in the wilderness, and you’re trying to figure something out. Then I put up polytricks, which might be a little bit hard to see here. But the most important line underneath is this line.

And it comes in perfectly at my line. And that doesn’t come in perfectly. Hold on. Where’s it coming? Oh, shit, it does come in perfectly. 32, 37, 88. So that’s Sumo’s product. I like it a lot. He ends up, what happens is it’ll draw supports and resistance lines. It’s basically trend-based. And frequently, his most important lines line up with my most important lines and everything inside I’m working on. That’s it. I’m comfortable saying that they will sell it again. They will sell probably multiple more times, but I’m not going to call it official.

I’m just going to say, watch for this market to keep making lower lows on lighter volume. And you’d say you look at a MACD, you don’t get a lower low in the MACD. That’ll be the level to go up. But if it cracks this level, then all bets are off. One more thing, we got an eight and nine, which is a top of the market indicator. And that says that we’re oversold. So we should go sideways or higher the next day or two. Knock on wood. I’m Vince. Have a great day. Well, thanks for watching this morning’s markets and metals with Vince Lancy.

We sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here. Hope you enjoyed the show and we’ll see you again tomorrow. Please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions. And thanks for watching. [tr:trw].

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