Where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning, everyone. I’m Vince Lancey. It’s 817. This is the gold fix market rundown. There’s the home page on the right hand side. You could see the markets today. We’re going to talk about the story in the top left hand corner. Goldman stands firm on its $4,000 call post city’s bear call, which we covered front and center. There are other stories of interest, Nassim Taleb, on risks, gold, private markets, and Trump tariffs. He had a Bloomberg interview.

He talks about gold, I think, in what is emerging as the consensus among intellectuals saying that gold is the new reserve currency. The lower right hand side, it had been bothering us that Powell was talking like he’s worried about stagflation and then saying, I’m going to ease two times anyway. It just seems inconsistent. And we had read something from TS Lombard that kind of coalesced what we were thinking. And so we wrote that up for everyone. Powell inflation is a risk, so we’re going to cut more. And the lower left hand side is the gold fix PM.

Let’s start with the markets. And that’s what we’ll be talking about. Ten year yields are up for the dollar is down eight. Yes, B500 is up 64. The VIX is down two and a half. There must be a news item out right now that I have not seen yet. This was not how we were earlier in the evening. Gold is down 22 after being up tiny. Silver is down 64 after being down almost 90, I think. And copper is now positive five cents. WTI has turned. This sounds like peace breaking out. Let me pause for a second and check.

I found it. OK, so last night, Trump made a statement that he would give some time for negotiations before deciding on potential strikes on Iran, whether that’s another negotiation tactic itself or not. We don’t know, but we do know that that’s a good reason to say, oh, things won’t be as bad. Iran won’t do anything stupid. The U.S. won’t do anything aggressive and or stupid and maybe cooler heads will prevail. So we’re in the brinksmanship game now. So stocks rallied. Gold’s down. Oil backs off, et cetera, et cetera. So that’s continuing. All right. So now we know why everything did what it’s doing, although we’re not happy about it at some level.

So here we go. Goldman stands firm on a four thousand dollar call thirty seven hundred by the end of this year. Post city’s bear call in a note from precious metals analyst Lena Thomas and Dan Strowman, the same who most recently stated gold and oil are buys. Goldman underscores the structural underpinning of gold demand. Which are not driven by retail flows or speculative flows, but rather by central bank accumulation and surprises to the upside in their buying. The two also note that despite gold trading near all time highs due to Middle East tensions and everything else going on in the world, speculative positioning remains curiously subdued.

And that remains a catalyst for them for further upside. They know speculative inflows into gold have been muted and positioning remains unusually low given the macro uncertainty parentheses we would add or perhaps COMEX is dying and buying has moved eastward. Goldman also holds the line on its high conviction forecast quote. We maintain our forecast thirty seven hundred per troy ounce by the end of twenty twenty five and four thousand by mid twenty twenty six. And we reiterate our long gold recommendations on continued central bank demand. There’s a little graphic to that effect. The full analysis, the full breakdown of that report is in the premium post.

Goldman stands firm or four thousand call post city’s bear call. You can read all that by clicking on the link. Moving on yesterday, we put out some post pal and inflation is a risk. So we’re going to cut more. I just alluded to that founders early look at important city comment. That was on the audio that we sent out to the founders privately seem to lab on risks. We just mentioned that and the audio cities. Call for a last hurrah in gold. So there you have it. Moving on to this weekend, the Plaza 2.0 court happens one deal at a time.

That’s our piece on the dollars decline. The secular aspect of it, putting a little meat on it. It’s not to say we’re bearish the dollar today that you’ll find out we’re not. But there are two pieces we have to this effect once coming out today. And what is that piece is the proof that going forward, the U.S. is number one, working on weakening the dollar. Number two, weakening against emerging market currencies. And number three, the Western currencies are not going to weaken, are not going to strengthen against the dollar. They’re going to weaken more. So it’s G7 versus BRICS.

And that’s one of the reasons that gold is rallying. Also this weekend, we’ll do Hartnett’s flow show walkthrough at some point. We’ll have an early look for founders today or tomorrow. Stable coins and tokenization. If the stable coin promises pay off aside from rescuing treasuries, you’re going to see the tokenization of illiquid assets that generally speaking, never get the light of day. You will take the world public. It’ll be increasing financialization and it will be something that the U.S. would be at the forefront of, and it will strengthen treasuries and the dollar. Hartnett put out something, Global Fund Manager Survey, GFMS, and he says the buck stops here where he talks about the dollar being the most hated asset in the world.

And secondarily related, his clients think that gold is the most crowded long. So we’ll explore that a little bit. That will go out probably tomorrow morning. History repeats itself yet again. Trump’s quest to weaken U.S. dollar. We’re going to do a piece on how what Trump’s doing now, which isn’t really being talked about, but it’s happening. The man is going around deal by deal and saying, buy our stuff, we’ll weaken the dollar against your currency. Buy, and that’s a Plaza deal, one, you know, one cut at a time into the dollar. We’re going to frame that as a history repeating concept.

What Trump’s doing now, Bush did, Reagan did, and who was first? Nixon did. All four Democrats, too, but the Republicans are easier for me to say. Under the Republicans, there were attempts to weaken the dollar to help export trade, which would make sense. It’s a Republican mindset. And to do that, there were various things. The Plaza Accord, when Bush did his thing in 2005, there’s there’s so many instances of this working. And then later on, there’s a crisis and it comes back up. So we’re in the middle of that again, we think. So we’ll talk about that again later.

Today is Friday, 830 a.m. Fed survey comes out and consumer sentiment or investor sentiment, depending on how you look at it. So that’s it. Summary and final market check before we do the weekend. Gold’s on Gold’s daily. Well, again, we had noted for the last three days that gold had been muted in its response to geopolitical risk. And that’s because if you’re looking for a reason why the geopolitical risk is directly related to oil risk. Hormuz straight, which we’ve talked about in the past, is the beginning of the supply chain to internationalization of oil flows. And that being in jeopardy with the U.S.

letting it be in jeopardy, we know what’s going on over there, says, well, the problem isn’t gold right now. The problem is oil energy. Silver, well, if you look at it on a daily to daily comparison, silver does have room to drop. If you look at it intraday, gold is weakening as silver is off its lows. That’s a side of risk on. So gold silver is being traded much more like a geopolitical trade than anything else out there right now, if you know how to look at it. WTI is strong. They’re remaining strong. We like it as a trade against gold now.

And the lower right hand side is the dollar. You know, I want to bring this up because I’m trying to make a decision on my own. Let’s get rid of the Bollinger Bands. If you’re looking at charts, go to the monthly. The dollar looks like shit, right? Structure broken back into this area. Draw all the trend lines you want to. The market doesn’t look good. Zoom in a little bit too weakly, and you say, okay, trading range, either at the lower end of the trading range or about to break the trading range, right? See that line there? That’s my level to start really worrying, or put it this way, to start really getting.

If the dollar trades 96, 47, and gold’s not at new all-time highs, then something’s not right with the gold relationship with the dollar. Anyway, that’s it. But if you come into the daily, the market’s sold off, and it’s bottoming. Perhaps the dollar has gotten ahead itself on the short side, and I would make the case, I have made the case in private, that de-dollarization is no longer the trend. It’s the meme. Mainstream media is picking up on it. Nassim Taleb is picking up on it. De-dollarization is what happened for the last 10 years, and it’s been happening for the last three years in earnest.

And now for the last eight months, you’ve been hearing about the end of the US. We’re going to sell dollars. They’re not selling treasuries anymore. They’re hedging dollars. And here’s the key. See that right there? That’s what happens when de-dollarization becomes a mainstream media meme. CTA start to sell it, and right now those guys are all short. And so I think we could have a face-ripping dollar rally over the next couple weeks, kind of like how silver rallies, when they get too short. I think they’re too short dollars now. Who knows? We’ll see. I’m Vince.

Have a great weekend. Well, believe it or not, we’re almost to the end of another trading week. And hopefully you’ve had a good time all week here, checking in with Vince Lancy and as well as the other shows that we have going on throughout the week. Hopefully it’s been helpful during these somewhat chaotic times. And of course, this weekend, I’ll just be hoping that everyone watching is safe, that your family members are safe, and certainly anyone in Iran and Israel is as safe as can be in what is heavy times to watch. But we’ll just hope cooler heads prevail at some point and that you can just appreciate all the things that are going well in life and that we have this place here to meet together and talk with some like-minded friends each day.

So thank you for being here. Thank you, Vince, for recording that show each morning. And also would like to thank Dolly Varden Silver, who is kindly a sponsor of the Arcadia channel and brought us today’s show with Vince. Vince was really fun catching up with the CEO of Dolly Varden, Sean Kunkin, on Monday where we did a deep dive into why the silver price really got clobbered during that decade back in the 2010s when we still had quantitative easing and zero percent interest rates at the silver price came down. And fortunately, that’s a topic I’ve been wanting to unravel for quite a while, which we did there.

And at the end of that call, Sean gave a great overview of what’s going on at Dolly. Chop that one out. And if you’d really like to get a better feel for what they are doing, especially now that they’ve increased their land package and are out drilling. Well, as I wish you a good weekend, I will also let you know that that video with Sean is coming to you right now. Thank you. [tr:trw].

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