➡ The article discusses various financial issues, including conflicts between officials, the impact of tariff policy, and the potential for a collapse of the Russian economy. It also covers the Federal Reserve’s flawed models and their failure to anticipate inflation. The article mentions Poland’s increase in gold reserves for credibility and stability, Thailand’s potential gold taxes, and Hong Kong’s plans to boost gold storage and trading. Lastly, it talks about the rise in gold’s value and the increase in silver demand in India.

➡ The text talks about zero percent rates and quantitative easing, encouraging the reader to learn more about these topics. Thanks for reading and stay tuned for more updates.

Silver is selling off early in the morning, recovered, and then right here at the announcement you see the spike up before the encompassing wave lower. Similar pattern in the gold chart. Well hello there my friends and good afternoon. Chris Marcus here with you for Arcadia Economics on a rather exciting Wednesday afternoon. I waited until after the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates by another quarter point was released to record this one so we could get some post-meeting reaction and as I’m guessing you’re well aware by now gold and silver both down quite a bit.

Although silver now down a buck of three on the day rebounding off the lows and you can see same pattern in both gold and silver. Silver is selling off early in the morning, recovered, and then right here at the announcement you see the spike up before the encompassing wave lower. Similar pattern in the gold chart right ahead of the announcement you see the spike up. Actually reminds me a bit of what Andrew McGuire wrote to the CFTC back in February of 2010 where he was explaining how gold and silver manipulation works and here if you see scenario one this was about a labor report but similar effect if you have the

news that employment is worse which would have a bullish effect on gold and silver as the US dollar weekends and precious metals draw bids spiking them higher this will then be sold into within a very short period of time with thousands of new contracts being added overcoming any bid and spiking the metals down and in case you’re wondering what that would look like on a chart well there you go just pull up today’s golden silver pricing so that seems a little sketchy to me yet hey here we are quarter point more on the way as we’ll get to in a just a moment but despite that gold future is still 3,700 bucks silver futures just under 42 dollars and even going back a month in time let’s take a look at the one month chart here there we were 38 on our way down to below 37 and here we are under 42 and don’t worry there’s if you’re saying darn they only got a quarter point today i was hoping my golden silver would go higher they got your back on this

one as we will dig into so there is andrew mcguire uh by the way for what it’s worth here is back on september 11th which i believe would have been thursday and there’s chris of arcadia saying might be good to watch out for a silver sell off in the next few days the exuberance feels extremely high right now this is not an official metric but i’ve just noticed over the years when the silver bugs get too excited usually that tends to coincide with an incoming sell off i did not make a lot of friends posting this comment just trying to be helpful and not telling anyone what to do but uh i might add on monday what it’s worth given the sharp rally

we’ve seen over the past week i would suspect that the probability of a correction has also grown preface that with that’s more of a than a definitive statement but anyway if that counts as a sell off silver future is down a dollar on the day and hopefully it’s nice where uh you know and i’ve been there panicking on past sell offs but hopefully at this point with these silver futures just under 42 even though they’re down a dollar on today’s news which was largely priced in hopefully that is not going to ruin anyone’s dinner so with that said let us continue on quick look at the dollar index which on that bullish news of the fed injecting more

credit into the economy of course is rallying so as a dollar often does although for those of you who were disappointed about only getting a quarter point cut today keep in mind that new trump appointee steven myron who we’ve talked about plenty on here especially after he wrote his 41 page thesis on how to restructure the global trading system that talked an awful lot about the overvalued dollar that was right before trump named him as the chairman for the council economic advisors and we can see that he was the only one dissenting he wanted a half point cut keep in mind trump has influence on the next fed chairman

and i don’t know if it will be myron but as you’ll see there’s the trump administration does not seem to like the federal reserve very much we have more on that and in either case we’ll well first of all we’ll see that interest rates are going to be cut faster than expected look at this field down here the top row here that’s what the summary of economic projections aka the dot plot came back with you can see uh 2025 back in june just three months ago they were saying 3.9 so now down to 3.6 implying two more cuts this year alone lower rate in uh 2026 that second one here and then fed funds rate expected to be even lower after that meanwhile i’m completely unrelated news here is their uh core pce inflation these are always fun and believe it or not since june when they expected 2.4 pce in 2026 now they’ve raised that 2.6 so they’re raising their inflation target projections and combating that with a faster pace of interest rate cuts and we’ll see if

trump and best and still say there is no inflation as it looks looks like i’m going to be right if i can at myself in the back here today that inflation was not likely to get back down to the fed’s arbitrary two percent mandate that was only made official policy by ben bernanke after he unleashed qe and qe2 and i guess operation twist qe3 whatever you want to call it but even so they’re not going to get down to that two percent mandate price effects from the tariffs just starting to filter in now and i’m sure uh if you’re out interacting in the world at all not too much of a permit uh when you go into stores and talk to people the your

business owner is mentioning well the tariffs affected this affected that and here we have inflation rising well they’re going to cut rates faster so all in all i’m guessing there is possibly some connection to gold and silver flowing into the etfs now as you’ll see here first on the gold side here’s the two-year chart where you can see right last summer and this was when i think it finally started getting priced in that the fed was going to cut rates which began in september and you saw an accumulation of gold which has gotten more intense this year there’s the six-month chart of what’s happened this year and says plenty here’s the five-year

chart i mean you can see from 2021 following the beginning stages of covid it’s still going on to pending on one’s perspective yet gold just coming out of those etfs until that point last summer that i just referenced and then you can see quite a turnaround this time with quite a correlation to the price so main takeaway that here especially with everything that’s going on this year that we’ll talk about a few of them before we wrap up today but certainly have talked about plenty and the world responding by gold especially on the institutional side with metal going in there pretty much the same picture with silver here’s the two-year chart again you can see here we are early spring this could go back here in march but again accelerating in 2025 here’s the six-month then here’s the five-year where you can see we hit that peak just that was to the day of the silver squeeze when it was 110 and 120 million ounces were reportedly added within three days

to the slv trust love it reportedly went back out quickly after but we saw a lot of metal come out of there and then we’re not yet to the all-time peak but not far off so not just retail or gold or silver bugs anymore they’re trying to distinguish between you know the people i talk to and the things that i’m seeing versus what is the average mainstream non-gold or silver bug investor thinking and i’m not saying they’re to their local coin shop yet but let us touch on some of the reasons why we’re seeing things like this gld just had the fourth biggest inflow on record so further evidence in the inflows and i might add that if going back to silver we

had that report last week from daniel galley where he said that at the current pace lbma inventories the current pace of metal being added into the etfs we had seven months to go in his opinion and then if you factor if you adjust that to the average rate at which silver is added during a rate cutting cycle which we are now in that would bring it down to four months so we’ll keep an eye on that one for you although on more who you are and what you’re saying uh because it turns out mid the cocktail hour din bessin lashed out at pulte uh i believe he’s one of the mortgage guys housing finance official bill pulte uh yeah so he was of

drone pal criticism fame earlier this year anyway doesn’t seem like bessin like so much either lashed out at him in an expletive late in diatribe treasury secretary had heard from several people that the federal housing finance agency director had been bound mouthing him to trump and he said why the fuck are you talking to the president about me fuck you i’m going to punch you in your fucking face so seems like things are going as well behind closed doors as they are out in the economy and the impact of tariff policy but rest assured because the us treasury secretary same scott beset says us and european union must

partner to collapse the russian economy it’s like we’re going back 30 years in time on that one and i won’t go through this now although i’ve mentioned before i’ve heard martin armstrong talk quite a bit and him and others that especially europe has this vision that they’re going to take russia down which doesn’t sound good if that’s even what is being thought behind the scenes so um guessing scott won’t be coordinating with bill pulte on this policy but anyway just a look at what’s going on now in other news you did have scott write an op-ed the fed’s new gain of function monetary policy and let’s just say that either the fed has been

right all along which it’s kind of hard to believe given the things they’ve gotten wrong transitory inflation subprime being contained or if they’re not right here here’s what the treasury secretary is saying about the fed i’ll just uh get a few highlights where the fed’s failure to anticipate the inflation surge stemmed from flawed models so according to scott the models are broken and the fed’s erroneous models of the economy also relied on a fundamentally false and self-reinforcing assumption that inflation is primarily determined by inflation expectations so i always thought that sounds a little bizarre like if you just convince people

that there’s not more dollars in existence so apparently scott’s on my side and that one and the fomc has consistently overestimated its own power in stimulating real growth and in controlling inflation and then we had in addition to its misguided reliance on flawed models the fed’s unconventional monetary policy tools disrupted an essential source of feedback in the financial markets despite the fed’s limited understanding of the relationship between gain of function monetary policy and that was the incredible part he was he was drawing parallels between the fed and covid so we saw during the covid pandemic when lab created

experiments escaped their confines they can wreak havoc in the real world so either the fed has been right about everything or scott best and just thinks they suck and there you have it although watching this circus i when you see here’s poland and as mike mahary kindly points out they’re increasing their gold reserves they last year they said they were going to 20 and now they’re saying well maybe 30 is better why would they do this because national bank of poland governor adam glapinski says this makes poland a more credible country better standing in all the ratings we’re a serious partner and we’ll continue to buy

door stoppers that are a symbol of stability gold will retain its value central bank is required to be prepared for even the most unfavorable circumstances and they’re turning to gold rather than treasuries while the treasury secretary wants to beat up the housing guy now we do have one contrary to the trend here because thailand is weighing taxes on gold to slow their bot rally bank of thailand and ministry of finance discussing ways to tax gold bought and sold and as any such levy may exempt gold trade in u.s dollars uh with the tax authorities aim to reduce exports of gold and make it more expensive for ties to own precious

metals so you know that’s certainly something that you’re likely to see more of uh i don’t know if that would be the dominant trend but again we see governments uh keeping an eye on capital controls right now and how about we come back to this one because while we’re speaking of capital controls where are you there we go hong kong expands gold market it invites china to participate vince talked about this a bit on our morning show and hong kong plans to boost the city’s gold storage facilities to deepen integration between the asian hub and the mainland and john lee unveiled policies to increase the city’s capacity for

holding bullion and establishing a central clearing system hong kong expanded plans to boost the city’s gold restored gold storage facilities so i think you get the idea that also hong kong to explore boosting tokenized gold trading in the city move can help shield the city against u.s dollar dominance so you see again it’s one thing for me or for you or anyone to say what we think other people should do but here these counter parties that used to be based on the dollar and are shifting away for it they’re telling you right out what they’re they’re thinking john lee’s policies have uh or the policies advisors to john lee set out a policy to

facilitate facilitate tokenized gold trading in hong kong so as to turn the city into the first digital digital settlement center in the world lee is positive about it the move will boost gold trading in asia and bypass the western dominated international payment settlement system amid the rising geopolitics will be still maintain a high standard of transaction monitoring all right they’re telling you what they’re doing also in terms of tokens stablecoin tether and talks to deepen gold investments has held talks with multiple mining and investment groups so the back ventures spanning extraction refining trading and royalty finance so another group

that you might not have expected to be a source of potential demand speaking of demand we do have a note from our friends over ah already disabled this one but we will do it again there we go because i wanted to make sure you heard we’ve quoted shirag facker ceo of silver importer amrapali group gujarat we’ve talked about him before and he says with prices going up investment demand has shot up nearly twice as much as before and that’s talking about silver so i thought that one was interesting especially with india known as a price sensitive buyer so shirag is saying that demand has already increased we haven’t really seen that reflected so much in the import numbers so far this year not i mean not ghost town but there haven’t been one of those often with india you get two or three big spikes randomly in the year have not had one yet so behind last year’s pace but we’ll see if this changes silver imports are set to pick up in the

coming months with the annual total likely to be between 5500 and 6 000 metric tons i think the record was just over 9 000 tons a few years ago so that’d be a strong year not record setting but anyway i have a few last ones before we wrap up here today china proposes rule change to ease gold imports and exports sought to ease licensing rules for gold imports and exports as the largest consumer precious metals continues to diversify its reserves away from us dollars well i mean if we’re in a gold focused world 10 years from now you can’t say that nobody warned you right and then lastly we haven’t seen gold rally this much

actually since 1977 gold’s value is ballooned by 40 this year putting it on track for a greater annual price jump than during the depths of covid or 2007 to 2009 at 40 percent so quite a good year it’s been despite today’s sell-off which now we have gold down looks like about 40 bucks oh silver sinking a little further where are we going to settle there oh now it’s rallying vesting.com apparently doesn’t update when i’m in the other window but anyway hopefully this was helpful in terms of giving an idea of what is going on out there i would also mention that the arcadia silver report which you’ve heard me talk about plenty over the

past couple months was finally released just over a week ago almost two weeks ago now and i think people have been enjoying it and fortunately it is available i’ll have that button popping up right here and the link also in the description field below it’s free report and talks a lot about what got us here the problems posed by the ongoing deficits check this out i even made a bullet list for you bam risks to the market by ongoing deficits white deficits are more likely to continue or even increase rather than go away in the years ahead why the issues facing the silver mine supply are not likely to get resolved even at a 50 or 100 silver

price why silver is lag gold over the most of the current rally what happens to silver if there’s recession why silver didn’t explode during a decade of zero percent rates in quantitative easing and much much more so there you go go read it now and with that said going to wrap up but thanks for tuning in and we will see you again soon
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