And let us begin with taking a look at the gold and silver and oil pricing before we dig into all the developments that are moving the markets today, as well as the rather shocking news that before this Iran thing is wrapped up. But seems like the Trump administration already talking about the next round of conquest yet either case here, we can see the gold price up 43 bucks now rallying a little bit since we started this and quite a move it’s had over the past month. Here you can see the price was up over five thousand has dropped as low as forty one twenty eight and back up to forty eight nineteen and having another strong day while the silver price continues to rebound up a dollar ten now at seventy six fifty on the futures.

And if we look at the one week price here, you can see we did get a little bit higher than that, although let’s actually go back to the three month. Here we are over ninety six right before the war breaks out, went as low as sixty one twenty and now back up to seventy six fifty. So I get it. It’s lower than the hundred twenty one dollar price. Although what do you want me to tell you where the price was? I do think it will be back there and higher at some point in our future, although today the price at seventy six half.

And while that’s happening, we see oil prices rising after Iran accuses US of breaching a ceasefire, which wasn’t as much necessarily the US, although I guess they had a couple points that they felt were violated in that agreement. Although one of the key ones is that Israel, right after this ceasefire agreement, launched a rather intense attack on Lebanon, of which there is quite a bit of dispute on whether that was or was not part of the ceasefire, which we’ll dig into, because and a quick disclaimer here, I fully aware that in the past couple of weeks there have been some members of our audience who do not like the times where I’ve mentioned things that are of a political nature.

And I’ll say that I’m not going out of my way to offend anyone’s favorite candidate, yet it’s hard to entirely strip out the politics from analyzing the gold market, especially when you see and I’m not saying this just on the Trump administration, but a variety of different key figures involved saying things that turn out to not be true. And I’m going to continue to do my best to analyze gold and silver. I understand if there’s some people who might not like the way that I have to go about doing that. I also think there’s a couple of things going on out there that sometimes there is an appropriate time to speak up.

I’m balancing the context of that, but in either case, I’m not trying to offend anyone with the politics and certainly appreciate if you are a longtime watcher of the show, although going to continue to do my best to cover some of these things honestly and also appropriately. And with that said, we will dig into some of the developments that have been going on behind that. Although here you can see the oil price back up to $96 bucks. There is when it fell off a cliff during the ceasefire announcement was higher earlier this morning. Got to a peak of $102.64 is the high of the day, which you can see there has come back in about six dollars since then.

And I would imagine we’ll see oil floating around with the headlines that come out, many of which are not necessarily true, although real quick. We’ll come back to this, the set the stage for how we got here. This was pretty shocking here. Trump saying the U.S. is ready for the next conquest as he warns the military to remain near Iran, but stay on guard to be ready for more, which is not my preferred way of taking next steps here, shall we say. But anyway, I will mention this other headline here that mentions how the oil price did jump back over the hundred dollar level as Iran controls access through the Strait of Hormuz.

So that’s another point of contention that seems to be going on here, whether Iran was given control or not. And let’s just say that I think the one thing that everyone could probably conclusively agree upon is that the situation with the ceasefire is a complete mess at this point. I don’t think that part is in dispute, but anyway, to lay this one out for you, let us start with some comments here from J.D. Vance on what really is lying under the contention here about what happened since the ceasefire. The Israelis, as I understand it, again, I’m supposed to get a full report when I get on the plane, have actually offered to be, frankly, to check themselves a little bit in Lebanon because they want to make sure that our negotiation is successful.

That’s not because that is part of the ceasefire. I think that’s the Israelis trying to set us up for success. And we’ll, of course, see how that unfolds in the next few days. And here you can see the escalation has threatened the truce between the U.S. and Iran. And in response, Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz again just hours after agreeing to let ships pass. And while both Bloomberg and the U.S. are saying that it was unclear whether Lebanon was included as part of that ceasefire, we’re seeing some disagreement on that one. And here’s J.D.

on whether Lebanon was included as part of the ceasefire. First of all, I actually think, and there’s a lot of bad faith negotiation and a lot of bad faith. Now, in terms of misunderstanding, I do think it has to be pointed out. And I’m not claiming to be a military analyst, but I’ve seen confirmed by multiple sources that on several occasions, some of the Iranian negotiators have just been outright killed. Former Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Khazari was killed in an attack that hit residential buildings in Tehran while he was involved with discussions to arrange talks with J.D.

Vance. I might also add that in terms of the regime change, the person who is reportedly in control is Khomeini’s son. And I saw this morning it was reported that not only was his father killed, but his mother was killed, his wife was killed, and his son was killed. So at least to that degree of, do you leave someone behind who’s pretty angry and might spend the rest of his life and his family’s life and his generation’s life finding ways to strike back? A little disturbing that we’re left in this situation, but back to that dispute.

I think this comes from a legitimate misunderstanding. I think the Iranians thought that the ceasefire included Lebanon, and it just didn’t. We never made that promise. We never indicated that was going to be the case. What we said is that the ceasefire would be focused on Iran and the ceasefire would be focused on America’s allies, both Israel and the Gulf Arab states. Israel and now Trump, in a phone call with a reporter, are saying that in fact, even though Hezbollah has agreed to the ceasefire, Lebanon does not count and Israel is allowed to continue bombing Lebanon.

However, Pakistan was the mediator that the United States asked to put out the statement that settled this for two weeks. Let me read from Prime Minister Shabazz Sharif’s statement from last night at 7.50 p.m. Eastern. With the greatest humility, I am pleased to announce that the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, along with their allies, have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon and elsewhere, effective immediately. This is from the Pakistanis, who the US hired to do this and instructed them how to do it. We know that because they accidentally, in one of their previous tweets, left in obvious language that showed that the US had actually sent them something to post earlier.

Fourth, Israeli military activities in southern Lebanon, including the continued presence of forces and the establishment of positions inside Lebanese territory, are illegal and unacceptable. These Israeli actions, which are in contravention of international law, are also undermining the efforts of the government of Lebanon to ensure peace and stability in the country. We call for Israel’s immediate full and unconditional withdrawal from all occupied Lebanese territories. So the US claimed that Lebanon was included in this and that the US and its allies had agreed to this. Israel is now bombing Lebanon. Iran has responded by saying, okay, Strait of Hormuz, it’s closed again.

They let through two ships, now it’s closed again. Now, obviously, I do realize these are very serious situations and I’m not trying to take sides other than point out just that, if nothing else, it’s a bit of a mess here and it also goes back to something that, if you’ve been watching the last couple of weeks, where I mentioned several times, and I’m not trying to brag about being right here, but just that, even if you had an agreement or a peace between the US and Iran, whether we have an agreement and a peace between Israel and Iran is a different story and we found out yesterday in this commentary from Benjamin Netanyahu that that certainly does seem to remain the case.

I’d like to stress we still have some goals to accomplish and we will achieve these goals, either through agreement and consensus or through renewal of the war, because we are ready to do so whenever necessary. Our finger is on the trigger and I would like to emphasize this is not the end of the campaign, it is merely a preparation on our way to achieve all of our goals. Anyway, I think we’re through the heavy political portion, if you want to call it that, of today’s show, although why did I feel it’s important to go through these things, as sensitive as it may be, is that not only does this affect the world, but certainly the resolution of this is going to affect the gold and silver pricing, and despite how on Tuesday night we saw the big shift in the price action as the ceasefire was agreed to, it certainly looks like it is on less than sturdy ground at the moment, especially because, going back to what I had mentioned earlier here, Trump has warned the military to remain near Iran as the U.S.

readies for its next conquest, now obviously ever since the U.S. went into Venezuela, where they’re now bringing gold and other minerals out of, they also talked about a variety of other countries, and here I’ll just read what he mentions, in the meantime our great military is loading up and resting, looking forward actually to its next conquest, America is back, and also in that same article mentions here that any breach in terms of the ceasefire, we still have wrath of god response in the holster apparently, because he warned that any breach would trigger a military response larger than anything seen before, and if for any reason agreement is not reached, the shooting starts bigger, better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen, so either case, may want to hold on to your gold and silver through all of that, and again we’re seeing a little bit of a rebound rally since things unfolded on Tuesday night, although at the end of all of that J.D Vance on his way to lead the U.S.

in talks with Iran in Pakistan, and that will begin on April 11th, which is Saturday by my calendar, and can only imagine what will happen in between now and then, although of course hit the subscribe button and the notification bell, and we will keep you posted here, although aside from all of the war issues, we did get the latest core PCE inflation, which was 3% in February, and again they say here as expected, although as I mentioned earlier, that’s five years now that not only are we over the Fed’s arbitrary 2% mandate, but quite a bit over, and here you see stubbornly remaining at 3% in February, that was before the oil spike that occurred in March, so probably not going to be going lower as the Fed’s dot plot ad suggested anytime soon.

Meanwhile, took a look over at Poly Market today, who will be confirmed as the Fed chair, Kevin Warsh still at 96%, would Trump give up his lawsuit against Rome Powell in order to get Warsh in? If that’s what it came down to, you would think so, although at least the Poly Market not really suggesting that there’s much of a chance of anything other than Kevin Warsh occurring, and while we don’t know exactly what he will do, Trump has said that he would not have gotten to the job had he not been on board with lower interest rates, and of course news that, well I guess I could say I did warn you about last year when we saw the bullion banks going hiring sprees, looking for talent as they call it to bring in to be gold traders and in a chaotic year.

They certainly did well making a record 3.9 billion in 2025, so at least I told you last year if you’re a trader out there and you’re looking for a big score, that was your chance to go to a bank, not necessarily what I would recommend. I fortunately in my career only had a, my only banking experience was a summer internship on Merrill Lynch’s trading floor back in 2004, bit of an eye-opening experience, not a fun place to work in that banking environment. It’s interesting, I do believe there’s some guy whose actual job is to make sure he figures out as best as possible, what’s the least that they can pay someone yet still leave them so they feel they can’t leave and have to stay.

It’s tough even just to remember the days there, not an easy environment and fortunately if you’re figuring out ways to capture the gold and silver rally, well there are easier ways to do it and that brings us to today’s sponsor for Tuna Mining who actually did have some news out this morning as they put out their first quarter production numbers where they reported production of 72,872 gold equivalent ounces which was an increase versus the first quarter in 2025 where they had 70,386 ounces and also an increase over the fourth quarter production where they had 65,130 ounces yet there is even further good news especially if you’re a Fortuna shareholder because when you look back here at the gold price this isn’t exactly the fourth quarter and the first quarter because it starts on the 19th we’re at the six month chart here yet you can see that the gold price in the first quarter was higher than in the fourth quarter you can also see how in the fourth quarter Fortuna reported record results record free cash flow at 132 million and now basically you’re finding out that they produced more gold at a higher price so last quarter was a record and then they just produced more at the higher price which is one of the reasons that i did i did i didn’t get filled on as many as i was hoping for but i did buy some of the call options around the first quarter earnings release which will be coming up in may again that is not in any way licensed financial advice and Fortuna is one of the proud sponsors of our show so i just want to be completely up front and forthright although this news certainly helps me to feel a little bit better about my trade and to find out more about Fortuna well we actually bring Jorge Ganosa the CEO of Fortuna on on a regular basis and of course in addition to what they’re already producing they are nearing a construction decision on their diamba suede gold project which could even further substantially increase their gold production at a time where despite the sell-off since the war began we’re still just a couple hundred bucks away from five thousand dollar gold which is a stunning margin for some of these companies and similar to how i said a couple months ago that once those fourth quarter earnings started coming out and the market saw how much some of these companies were making that that would start to change the perception and i think we’ll see an even bigger effect of that after the first quarter earnings and in either case to make sure you’re prepared and to find out more about the different projects and plans and why Fortuna has been able to perform so well throughout this environment well here’s the last call we did with Jorge Ganosa where he discusses exactly that and more
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