First of all, great turnout yesterday in the chat. Thank you and you are all going to get a free month added by Friday. Thank you very much. That door is closed for now. Maybe we’ll do it again in a month or so. Two stories today. And Poland is not so quietly transforming its balance sheet into a gold fortress. And the numbers now show how close its reserves are to a US style gold concentration territory. The second story is personal pride. It’s a geopolitical special. Today we connect Taiwan, silver, and Latin America into a single continuity system that shows why China’s strategic conflict is not about prices in Latin America for resources, but it’s about corridor control, institutional leverage, and ultimately, global peace.

Taiwan is what’s going on behind the scenes. Go down the road a little bit. You’ll see that that’s what’s going to happen. Let’s look at the markets first. 10-year-olds are down one, the dollar is down eight, S&P 500 is down 20, the NASDAQ is down 75. Gold is up $96, over about 2%. Silver has been volatile all night, was down significantly. Now it’s down 32 cents, which is, believe it or not, 32 cents is only 40 basis points at 94.20. Copper is up 30 basis points at 578, WTI is up 1.5% almost, 87 cents, natural gas up 78 cents, natural gas up almost 20%.

That’s your news. That’s got to be weather-based because it doesn’t jump like that unless it’s weather-based, and that means the March contract is going to explode and the March-April spread is going to go crazy again. Bitcoin, unchanged bid, Ethereum, unchanged offer, Palladium down 38, Platinum down 11, gold silver, up one, as you’d expect, and the grains are all up. In our exclusive silver war signal, winding China conflict. In part one, we frame the silver conflict as a symptom of a much larger geopolitical contest. In part two today, we explain how Taiwan’s strategic risk is governed by an integrated continuity architecture, spanning diplomacy, logistics, resources, and financial settlement.

Latin America anchors that system through corridors, processing, routing, and institutional influence. Silver pricing is presented as a surface signal, just a surface signal of a deeper geopolitical struggle shaping Taiwan’s future and global stability. How does Taiwan factor into this? Well, China put out their third paper on Latin America, and the first section was about Taiwan. They want Taiwan to be globally recognized as part of China, and you do that by securing roots in Latin America and UN votes to that end. It’s all the same thing. Watch. Scary. Next, out of Warsaw, Poland Central Bank announces gold buys up to 36.6% of total reserve.

That’s our estimation. Poland Central Bank approved plans to buy up to 150 additional tons of gold. That’s a fact. Lifting potential holdings to 700 tons. At current prices, gold could approach 37% to 38% of total reserves. More like 33% to 36% is our assessment. The move underscores a strategic shift towards bullying as a sovereign reserve anchor amid rising geopolitical and financial fragmentation. That’s huge news, and it’s probably why gold has accelerated over the last week or so. This news came out last night. It is, in a sense, not in a sense, in all senses, breaking news.

In other news and analysis, we did a part two interpreting, listen to me, interpreting Shanghai COMEX spread movement. The episode presents a conditional probability framework for interpreting Shanghai COMEX silver spread movements and explains how spread direction, relative to market direction, reveals whether Chinese demand or US supply controls pricing. The spread is treated as an observation tool for structural stress, arbitrage activity, and potential inflection signals. Essentially, look, if we’re all going to be long gold forever or for however long we’re going to be long gold, if we’re all going to be long silver and we’re not going to get out, but we want to know what the hell is going on when you watch the tape, it helps to know what the hell is going on.

And this will help you know what’s going on as it relates to the arbitrage spread between New York and London. And this is the way to look at it. I’m sorry. Everybody else is talking about this. Everybody’s made some good points. This is how to digest it. This is the next level. Part one was the first level that everyone’s talking about now. This is what’s going on. Coming soon, we haven’t gotten to yet silver in the time. That didn’t happen. The copper-silver convergence, silver as copper is hidden. Profit engine and white platinum palladium are structurally short.

Sorry, we’re moving so fast today. We have some things to do. PCE is due out today. Wednesday is construction spending. Moving on. OK, so a little bit of analysis here. Today, we look at the charts in a second. Today, we hit the measured moving gold at $4,800. So that’s another measured move in the books. I want you to think of these things the way, if you can, think of the way I am. At least, this is the way I’m thinking of them. Measured moves are the only thing I’m looking at right now. If there’s a dip, I’m not buying the dip, OK? I’m not trading the dip.

I’m just long, all right? So if there’s a dip, I don’t buy it. Because if it keeps going down, I’m going to lose money. If there’s a dip at a retracement, and we break that high, measured move time. Measured moves only while checking on big picture undercurrents to reconfirm these daily. Otherwise, there is no reason to sell. So market makes a high, market dips, I don’t buy the dip. Not right now, because that’s trading. I’m already long the dip for fucking five years. When it makes a new high, then I will buy on a speculative trade.

That’s it. That’s what I’m doing. Otherwise, there’s no reason to sell unless there are undercurrents that undermine the secular picture, which I’m aware of, all right? I’m actually considering buying puts on the metal as I buy miners and sell offs. So when the market dips, I may be buying miners and buying puts. That’s the way I am right now. I have a high percentage in metal and a low percentage in miners, almost none in miners right now, OK? So I want to buy miners. You guys know that I’m looking into creating a portfolio on that, and I’ll update you on it as soon as I get the numbers down.

But that’s it. Also know this, gold and silver are vulnerable to news now. There’s nothing but bullish news coming up. There’s nothing but bullish reactions coming up, which means we’re vulnerable to a blind side of news. Putin and Trump hugging out. China says, I capitulate. What could happen? Scrap metal is going to hit the market. Real, real news, not bullshit news. Gold. Banks start saying, we’re not going to buy any more gold because we already have a high enough percentage. Keep all that in mind. Please buy mugs and sweatshirts in addition to our hats and support independent media.

I didn’t write that, but I did read it. All right. OK, here’s the only bearish thing I can give you. We have a double top in the spread. We have a double top in the spread between China and the US. We have a double top in China. And let’s see what the US looks like. This is silver I’m talking about. Silver, that’s not a double top. That’s a breakout of a bull flag, right? OK, China, that’s a double top. So again, the markets open in the US now, and I think it’s closed again in China.

But we have to watch what they do when they’re both open. But right now, if you’re just looking at these charts statically on a daily, you say the spread is starting to close a little bit. That’s all you say. Gold. I remind people that are focused on silver, which is for good reason, that the spread between gold and China gold, I haven’t verified this, but the spread is about $100. At $100, that’s where JP Morgan arbed it going back to 2023. And no one is arbing it anymore. There’s no arbitrage financially because we’re in a mercantile environment.

There’s no arbitrage physically because we’re in a trade war. There’s no arbitrage. And that’s because everyone’s hoarding now. One other thing I wanted to add. We have essentially hit Goldman Sachs’ target for 2026. OK. Every bank on the street has been raising their targets, telling people to buy gold. It’s been Goldman Sachs holding back, holding back. Being careful, being professional. Look for Goldman Sachs to go over the top in the next three months and put a big price increase target on gold. And then you make up your mind what you want to do then.

You may want to buy more. You may want to sell, but that’s just a trader talking. Has nothing to do with central banks are buying gold. Central banks need to buy gold. Poland is the point of the spear in Europe. What Poland does, Europe does. ECB, whatever her name is, Van Der Schnitzel, whatever her name is. That chick just said the biggest mistake the U.S. ever made was going off the gold standard. Well, what’s your solution to that, sweetheart? All right. Sorry, being a little bit of a … today. Have a great day. Well, thank you, Vincent, for another great show this morning.

And thank you to you at home for being out there and joining in here and watching along with us. Fun to talk with so many of you in the chat. And if you enjoyed the show, go ahead and hit that subscribe button and the notification bell so that you can stay posted as these different events continue to unfold in the precious metals markets. And just in case you missed what Vincent had to say yesterday, well, that one is coming your way now. [tr:trw].

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