RBC is saying the same doom that we feel, right? Giving you the news that’s happened. Michael Oliver is saying that the technicals indicate that this time we may be in an upswing of momentum. Higher lows. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey. Where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now here’s Vince. Good morning everyone. I’m Vince Lancey. This is the Market Rundown. We will be discussing primarily miners, the good, the bad, and the ugly. Or not so ugly I should say.

Today’s action notwithstanding. The Mar-a-Lago accord will change money forever. That’s the title tentatively because I think it’s worth discussing a little bit of geopolitics today. We also have the RBC full report on which we will base the miners discussion attached at bottom for premium subscribers. All right, that’s a lot. So let’s get started. The markets. I’m gonna put this up right now. Tenure yields are down 7 at 432. The dollar is 106.47 down 22. The S&P 500 is 598. Down 3. The VIX is 1927. Up a little. Gold is 29.29. Down 22.

Near it’s lows. Silver is 3184. Down 48. Near it’s lows. Copper 451. Up a penny. No idea why. WTI is 7048. Down 77. Consistent. Natural gas. Dead cap bounce. 412. Up a penny and a half. Bitcoin down 2,500. 88,900. Palladium and platinum. Big spread now. Palladium is now 936. Platinum is 965. I think Russia maybe it’s related to that. Maybe it’s related to the economic stuff but it’s related. Soy, corn and wheat. 1029. Down 3. 477. Down 4. And the king of the sell-off is wheat. 585. Down 7. Okay, so I see several drivers in there potentially.

The first one is if there’s peace with Russia you’re going to see commodities that are geopolitically driven move on that. So palladium would be one. Oil would be another and wheat would be another. That’s one driver of these price moves. The other is the tariffs that Trump has announced going into effect or the ones that were tabled and are now going into effect or threatening to be going into effect again are probably wreaking a little bit of havoc with commodities. Why would gold be down if there’s tariffs? Well gold was down last time if there are tariffs announced but that’s that we don’t know what’s gonna happen there.

Silver, however, I would say silver should be down except copper is not down. So go figure. We’ll find out what’s going on in a little bit hopefully but just now you have the information. All right. Why do I have this post here? Well this post is from March of 2022 and in it, Pozar said something. The report ended with just a statement. After this war is over money will never be the same and we said he is right. Now back in the day when Pozar was saying a lot of things of in my opinion originality and substance, he was privy, still is privy, but he was talking to people that understood the geopolitical situation very well.

And he, I remember when he said this, he was kind of identifying the next Plaza Accord event, the next Bretton Woods, right? This is where the whole Bretton Woods 3 came out, okay? This is where the birth of the Bretton Woods 3 concept. Now it’s such a bold statement and yes it caught a lot of attention but it remained, it remains relevant to this day. Why? Because he’s right. Whoever told him is right, okay? The war is the beginning of the end of the current monetary regime. Now there’s a lot of talk about that right now amongst more intellectual types.

I forget, but TS Lombard has a piece on it, right? Everyone’s talking about, everyone had talked about Enbridge. We’re talking about a Mar-a-Lago agreement. There’s a piece out there about that, but I guess what I’m coming down to is we’re near the end of that timeframe. And the meeting, where is that? Where is that? Anyway, the meeting is between the three largest oil powers in the world, okay? In Riyadh, with the Ukraine president absent, we’re going to have kind of a Mar-a-Lago Riyadh accord or agreement. We’ll see. Anyway, I will get into that a little bit more in a second.

I don’t want to go down too much of rabbit hole. Let’s go with the front page. Hartnett, Krabby, Potomac River. Could be sent just sell the gold. Yes, he could. Would he? Probably not. Bloomberg the West doesn’t get our precious metals. We have a lot. It’s in the story yesterday, but we did not send them out in the email. All right, let’s start with the miners, right? Let’s go to the main event here. All right, the good is by Michael Oliver. The bad is by RBC. So let’s start with the bad, right? You get your dessert after you deal with this.

RBC put out a report, five things on metals. We have it at the bottom. And here’s the five points that they go into in detail. Number one, the GDX, the GDX J flows are deteriorating. Are they deteriorating further? And the question is, we don’t know, but they have deteriorated enough. And that’s what this this graph means. The deteriorating flows implies less people investing in it than ever. A good contrarian indicator, but I’m not framing it that way for this part of the conversation. Capital returns are an investor focus, but corporate actions are mixed.

This is very disturbing and has been my problem with miners for over a decade. And that is they do not respond or cannot respond or are unwilling to explain why they will not respond to what investors want. Capital returns, meaning buy your shares back, issue a dividend, or grow your business through accretion. And they’re not or acquisition, they’re not doing that. So RBC goes into that. Number three, senior producer guidance fell short of consensus expectations. That’s just a statement of fact. What they’ve noticed is that senior goal producers issued 2025 guidance over the past two weeks, indicating lower production, higher costs, and higher capex versus both consensus expectations and 2024 achieved results.

That’s par for the course for me. What is working year-to-date? They get into leverage to gold and avoiding operational slip-ups. Now, what would that mean? Leverage to gold means well, operational leverage or financial leverage. It’s, it’s, operational leverage is what you prefer, but financial leverage is what they have. And financial leverage is not working right now. Looking at performance year to date, producers have outperformed royalty companies. Ah, that makes sense. Royalty companies are theoretically tapped in their, in their, their cash stream companies, right? So in our view, that’s consistent with both rise in gold prices and a substantial evaluation gap for producers.

Producers are too cheap relative to royalties. Royalties are capped in their income and their profits compared to companies that are leveraged the price of gold. And therefore, if you have money in royalties, you’re going to rotate it into producers at this part of the cycle, which is the point of this chart here indirectly. This chart shows there’s less money going into precious metals stocks, which means everyone’s selling royalty companies and buying miners, I mean, at producers. So, whoops, didn’t mean to do that. That’s kind of upsetting, you know, because that means for every producer going up, a streamer might start going down now.

Yeah, you’ll see the gap closed, but it won’t be from producers just going up. It will also be from miners going lower. So that’s the, what’s the fifth one? Oh, the fifth one’s actually the hope, right? Big caps could have a brighter future if gold price strength continues. Well, you know, how long have you been hearing that, right? I don’t want to blow smoke up your ass. In a rise in gold price environment, intermediate and growth focus for producers can outperform seniors given leverage and liquidity profiles. However, two additional factors deserve attention.

One, small and mid cap valuations have dislocated versus large caps back in 2019 and have not recovered even as financial conditions and the operating cost environment has improved. Why is that? I don’t have an answer. Investor feedback supports a low inclination to shift. All right. That’s the bad, right? So the good. Oh, there it is. The good is last night, Michael Oliver sent another report. Incidentally, to reiterate, he will be joining the gold fix founders this Sunday for Q and a an interview after which we will make it available for premium subscribers.

Yeah, that’s better. Right. In his latest note sent last night, he looks at the intermediate level for signs of momentum proliferation, and he does see them. Specifically, he sees a repeat of a momentum situation that corroborates this is a sideways situation that should resolve higher. Now, putting a little bit more. Explanation on that, there was a pattern. In the intermediate situation in the past, I’m kind of explaining what he’s talking about here. I don’t want to give away too much of what he wrote. There’s kind of a pattern, and the pattern is when the market when his indicator, the market gets overbought, the market drops down, right? And then when the market gets overbought and markets and oversold it rallies, that’s your momentum indicator.

But the longer since the longer term momentum indicator has turned upward and we had a nice rally in mining stocks, the intermediate indicator is being ignored. So we have had we are in an intermediate topping indicator with the long indicator being extremely well sitting and the market instead of crapping out is going sideways. So everyone who’s impatient, I understand, but the impatience is not warranted from what I take away from this. The longer term, the zoom out, and I don’t mean that negatively, the zoom out says, oh, everything’s go.

We’re in an intermediate low. Now he has charts that effect. I’m going to show you in the technical part, what he means using my tools, what overbought should do in the intermediate and isn’t doing intermediate is I think anywhere from two to six months. Okay, so we’re going to go through that in more detail. So actually, let me paraphrase. Let me quote one thing that he did say. After eight months of stair casing, the same situation is in play. Any monthly close at forty two ninety five will be a new high close for the entire advance.

He put this out last night. This is bleeding edge stuff. Also watch the upper normal highlight of momentum. Get price up to forty three ten this month on the close and that ceiling on momentum comes out. So the long term, right, forty two ninety five gets is a level to reaccelerate and forty three ten will take away I think the intermediate ceiling. So taken together between rates, I’m sorry, between RBC and MSA. The news, the fundamental news always lags the price action. Now we will personally wait for a trigger, namely specifically Michael’s trigger, and then increase our own position, our position being long GDS and short a tech on AI specified ETF.

And we’re naked long goal. So that’s where we are. And we’ll come back to that. Let’s move to the other news and analysis now. These are the stories we put out yesterday. Michael Oliver, where are the medals with stocks dropping? That was the morning run down yesterday. Founders AM slow down in AI plus a story by Raba Sunday CFTC discussions. That’s over two hours with a conversation with a guest, Ben Keller and who discussed offshore drilling, particularly Sable is his focus. Goldman Sachs by the dip unlikely a story that we put out yesterday, breaking Luke Romans interview with Tucker Carlson.

Everyone’s talking about that today. And certainly, we were talking about it yesterday on social media. Very good interview. Luke represented his knowledge and our community, I think very well. Tucker Carlson asked the right questions, wanted to spin it, not spin it, wanted to frame it as what it is, you know, the conspiracy against gold as we one thing he said, I thought was interesting. He said, being called a gold bug is a specie. That was his word. Being called a gold bug is a gold bug is a specie of gaslighting or conspiracy theory.

That’s the word he said. So it’s kind of like, if you’re a gold bug, it’s like a subset of the conspiracy theorist. You know, it’s Monday, p.m. CTAs are too long gold and too short copper. So there’s one, two, three, four, five, six pieces we put out yesterday almost entirely on precious metals. All right. Like we understand if you’re reading something else right now. All right, so moving on. Data on deck GDP, PCE. Today is the Case Shiller Home Price Index. New home sales is Wednesday, GDP is Thursday and Friday is PCE.

In the top five things across gold equities, we have that report. Thank you to Mr. J. W. We’ll call him for now. We appreciate that. He’s a founder, a gold fix founder. And well, we’re going to do a final market check. And in that final market check, I want to go through this how I frame Michael Oliver’s stuff. OK, this is a daily GDX chart. Can I draw with this? Yes, I can. Interesting. There you go. Kid with a new toy. What you’ll notice or what I’ll point out to you is that see this pink and red eight and nine, eight and nine, eight and nine.

Right. These are yellow and green. Well, what matters is that when we hit an eight and nine, that’s a top. You hit an eight and nine, that’s a top. Eight and nine. Big top. OK, the eight and nine is something called a Tom Demarque sequential indicator. And they don’t predict, but they determine when a market is overbought or oversold, at least the way I show it here. Right. Now, the last one was a big one. Right. Now, let’s go since December of this year. Actually, really since November of last year. Right.

Here’s an eight and nine. Ignored it. Here’s an eight and nine. Sideways pause. OK, so Michael’s point, if I’m understanding him correctly, is that. This is intermediate momentum for me. Intermediate momentum says. Respect the eights and nines. Right. Intermediate momentum. Has just basically said the eights and nines. Are no longer to be respected. The market has, in my opinion, looking at these and very familiar with sequential’s, the sequential’s tell you when you’re going to have like a regime change in perception. Right. OK, it’s a high or high and it’s a high or low, but it’s still a high.

It’s still a high. It’s a higher high and low. But guess what? It’s not really a higher low. I mean, it’s not really a higher high that stops in a range. It just reverses. So eight and nine. Right. This is an indication of a market that is no longer looking at this, but it’s a market that is now looking at this. OK, so my guess is we get above here and it’s off to the races. Now, what’s Michael’s number 43? 43. OK, and that makes sense. If you’re a traditional technician, you look at this and you say, oh, bull flag, right, gets above here.

You’re off to the races. If you want to be more aggressive, which I am more aggressive, if the market gets above here, let’s say like, you know, this line here. I’m going to get longer. Right. And if the market gets above there, I’m going to probably get super long. So that’s pretty much it. The whole concept here is, is this time different? And, you know, everyone thinks it’s different and it is different because it’s demonstrably different. The long term momentum that Michael talks about so much is in place. The intermediate momentum I’m demonstrating to you is changing to be favorable to the market.

OK, it’s lower today, right? OK, but we’re not trading this for a day. This is a three to six month outlook on my system. Let’s see what it is for his to summarize. RBC is saying the same doom that we feel. Right. Giving you the news that’s happened. Michael Oliver is saying that the technicals indicate that this time we may be in an upswing of momentum, higher lows, so to speak. And I believe, frankly, that we’re going to have a accord that’s going to come out of the Riyadh conversation.

Just to give you a little bit more meat on the bone of that, what I’m talking about is. Is. When there’s peace after a war, just think about your your history, right? When there’s peace after war, oil drops and gold drops, right? Peace. If there’s peace after this war and gold doesn’t drop. Gold is rallied for eight weeks in a row. If there’s peace after this war and gold doesn’t drop and oil does drop, then the accord is in play and the accord would be your gold will go up if we can have cheaper oil and that’s the trade.

All things being aside, all things being taken differently. All right. I’m Vince. Have a great day. Well, thanks for watching this morning’s markets and metals with Vince Lancy. We sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here. Hope you enjoyed the show and we’ll see you again tomorrow. Please note that this video is not intended as legal, licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions. And thanks for watching. [tr:trw].

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