Global Silver Market Faces Strains as Trumps Tariffs Hit | Arcadia Economics

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Summary

➡ The Arcadia Economics article talks about how the global silver market is under stress due to Trump’s tariffs, with concerns about rapidly decreasing stockpiles in the UK. The cost of borrowing metal has increased, and not all remaining stock is accessible due to its connection to exchange-traded products. This situation is worsened by the fact that the mining equity market isn’t attracting new investments.

 

Transcript

Although, in terms of things that seem less okay, you know, we continue to hear the signs of stress. I know this was particularly significant, not just what they’re saying, but also that it’s Bloomberg. Well, hello there, my friends. Chris Marcus here with you for Arcadia Economics and another global silver market faces strains as Trump tariffs hit. And we will dig into that, but I think you can get an idea that doesn’t sound good. And real quick, before we do that, also would point out unfortunate headline here. IDF forces have begun limited ground operation in Gaza.

I’m not by any means going to claim to be a Middle East expert. Although it sounds quite horrific, what’s been going on there and tragic to hear that this ground force is going in to a limited ground operation. I’ve heard it hasn’t been all that limited. Again, maybe best to leave it at there and just hoping that people are okay. Although, in terms of things that seem less okay, you know, we continue to hear the signs of stress. We’ve been talking about the inventories declining. We’ve been talking about the reports of not just me saying a potential silver squeezer issue, but now the bank’s doing it.

And anyway, let’s just dig in through here, because I know this was particularly significant, not just what they’re saying, but also that it’s Bloomberg. It’s not, you know, some YouTubers blog or whatever. But I mean, obviously, they’ve commented on this several times as we’ve seen those EFPs premium spike. And then here it is again, March 18. So that was on Tuesday. And let’s take a look through here and go through the highlights. All right, they’re talking about the trade war and tariffs. As I’ve said before, keep in mind, there was never any threat of tariffs on England.

So the amount of metal that’s come there, you know, I get it on one hand, you know, if you’re getting your silver from Mexico or Canada, and you would want to look at alternatives. I’m still not entirely convinced that’s the whole explanation of that. But anyway, the precious metals have upended this year as Trump challenges global trade, dislocations spot silver up 17%. Although here’s the key that they’re talking about again here, lease rates, the cost of borrowing metal generally for a short period of jumped one month rates for a silver top 6% this month, after a larger spike in February, which we talked about here and on our written sub stack, which you can find at gold and silver daily dot sub stack.com.

So you would have heard about it before Bloomberg here and it’s partly reflects concerns about fast depleting stockpiles in the UK capital with holdings hitting a record low last month. In addition, not all of what remains is available given its tie to exchange traded products, especially when you’re already in a deficit and the mining equity market still not seeing money come in. So it’s not like you have all hands on deck out there replacing it. And here we have a quote from cow Shan Shan an analyst at Kafka futures. I expect the lease rate in London to remain high for about two to three months.

So again, and we’ll put a few other voices on this because not just him saying that here from BMO capital markets analyst George Hepple should the long fabled silver squeeze materialized that this slower trade flow will be a key contributor to the prolonging and here about 70% of the silver coming from Canada and Mexico. So is going to have an impact, but also note from city group who’s saying the market may be underpricing the scale and impact of the upcoming reciprocal tariffs. And again, in terms of this silver squeeze, not just me saying it and not just George saying it here is the article, I believe they quote Daniel galley.

There you go of silver squeeze was put out several reports. And this on our morning show, Vince had a report from ANZ bank warning of a silver squeeze. Here is an article from our sub stack. Put the link to this one in the description bill below if you’d like to take a look. There was Eric Spratt warning about it. Robert Gottlieb, a former JP Morgan precious metals managing director. So someone with some access to what’s going on. And since I posted this, the silver dislocation worsens. And any material withdrawals will only make things much tighter.

Again, keep in mind, we’re also seeing industrial or retail coins melted down into industrial bars. So I don’t think this is just going to get solved magically. Here city groups saying the market may be underpricing the scale and impact of the upcoming April 2nd US reciprocal tariffs. So got some escalation in the future. And then here you go. TD securities. I just mentioned there’s Daniel galley for reciprocal tariffs are really like for like you would expect retaliatory tariffs on Canadian silver. And we have talked plenty about Daniel’s commentary both on the show and on the Arcadia economics gold and silver daily sub stack where we are covering this on a daily basis, all the theatrics that are going on and can make these easy to read and follow.

So you can get a good idea of what’s happening day to day. There’s some video mixed in there here. We’re talking about some of the issues of the silver supply, which are continuing to grow. And of course, we had Eric Sprott and Robert Gottlieb, former JP Morgan precious metals director worn on silver. And again, in the midst of the Fort Knox audit and a whole lot more. So anyway, you can go to golden silver daily.substack.com. Peace comes out every week, you can get a free trial subscription or it’s only $10 a month, if you’d like to get the full service, which fortunately, I think a lot of people have been enjoying.

So with that said going to wrap up for now, I will see you again soon. [tr:trw].

See more of Arcadia Economics on their Public Channel and the MPN Arcadia Economics channel.

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