Gold has become one of the defining legs of Hartnett’s B.I.G. trade, Bonds International and Gold, showing record inflows, but still low ownership. Over $34 billion has entered gold funds in 10 weeks, yet institutions hold only 2.4% and retail less than one. Hartnett calls gold both crowded and under-owned. Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey, where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning, everyone. I’m Vince Lancey. This is the Gold Fix Market Rundown. It’s Monday, 8-11. There’s the homepage.

We’re going to be talking about the Hartnett Gold Status Update. So he put out a flow show every week, roughly every week. And we cover it. But we wanted to – we got a lot of new subscribers recently. We wanted to – and we do a long-form walkthrough. We wanted to do a breakout of the gold stuff for readers, for those of you not so inclined to listen to podcasts. So let’s start with the markets. Ten-year yields are 4-0, unchanged offer. The dollar is $98.55 up a little. The S&P 500 is $66.85 up 12. The NASDAQ is $24,921 up 26.

The VIX is $20.53 strong, but off its highs. Gold is $42.80 up 29. That’s more than a dead cap bounce. Silver is $5,204 up 17. I’ll call it a dead cap bounce for now, but it’s $52. Copper is $493, unchanged offer. WTI is $57.25. Down 45. Natural gas is $309 up 18. New glasses, stronger lenses. I can’t see anything anymore. Bitcoin, $1.10 spot, $900. That’s encouraging. Ethereum over $4,000 again. Palladium and platinum mixed. Gold, silver, $82. That’s fine. And grains are mixed with wheat a little bit offered, slightly offered. Okay, where are we? Gold has become one of the defining legs of Hartnett’s BIG trade, Bonds International and Gold, showing record inflows but still low ownership.

Over $34 billion has entered gold funds in 10 weeks, yet institutions hold only 2.4% and retail less than one. Hartnett calls gold both crowded and under-owned, forecasting a potential 6,000 peak by spring 2026. He lists reversal triggers like a central bank revaluation. Revaluing it is a sell the news type of event or an AI driven real rate spike. We add that US investors treat gold despite what we’re being told, and you know, I’m bullish gold in general, but we think US investors are treating gold as an add-on hedge, not a safe and not a sale-funded shift.

They’re not selling AI to buy gold. They’re margining AI to buy gold and that leaves room for forced selling in an equity downturn. I give you an example of that’s a dip you can buy. Alright, so that continues in the premium post. Hartnett’s gold status update. Do some charts today. News, how it broke the silver market. Bloomberg put out a story almost saying that and so we took that and a couple other insights and we put it together and created hopefully a more comprehensive version of what they were talking about. Founders kiss 2% inflation goodbye. We have talked about the on-ramp to yield curve control, though it hasn’t happened yet.

I mean, the on-ramp has happened. We’ve talked about financial repression. We’ve talked about there are only two ways to control inflation by raising short-term rates or letting long-term rates rise. And those are different manifestations of the same phenomena and that phenomena is inflation must flow at a higher rate. BCA has their own version of that and they talk about it like it’s a regime change. And we break that report down and put it in context of things that we’ve talked about as well. Essentially, essentially, if you’re following recent events, Pal abandoned FAIT, which is the, what’s it stand for? Something average inflation target, F, I don’t know, financial fundamental loading, you know, fugazi average inflation target.

And he abandoned that in August. And that’s when gold started taking off. Other countries are rethinking how they calculate inflation. The U.S. is rethinking how it calculates inflation. And all the recalculation rethinking is about tolerating higher inflation. So we’re seeing, to paraphrase BCA, the regime change has gone from stable prices. The Fed needs prices to be stable to the Fed is interested in getting real rates down. Real rates are too high. So real rates are too high. And that that has a lot of negative effects on the financial aspect of the economy. And as real rates come in, real assets are going to get another boost.

And I think that’s why a lot. It’s one of the tickers for why the metals are doing what they’re doing, you know, and they put it they put it this way. They say the Fed is lowering short term rates. Right. So they’re no longer fighting inflation at the short end of the curve. And the Fed is currently, ostensibly letting long term rates rise and long term rates rising would be theoretically fighting inflation. However, they make the case as zero hedge and we do and other people do is that eventually. They’ll stop the long term rates from rising and they will cap those and that’s yield curve control.

And that will be squashing inflation manifesting in the bond market, which means the dollar goes to zero goal goes to infinity. And so it goes to infinity plus whatever the LPMA short. So that’s the idea behind it. And we think it’s an incredibly different take than how we looked at it. And we think it’s because of that something worth to look at. Heart net by bonds hold gold and rotate stocks. That’s the full heart net walkthrough. But we broke that out for the gold aspect, which is described to you why central bank should sell gold is nonsense.

We stand by that when gold speaks lately, the Fed fall silent. That’s an observation that we made after seeing an interview with Powell and then also reading a report by TS Lombard. How the Fed is letting gold, I’m paraphrasing, but TS Lombard is like, the Fed is, gold is rallying because the Fed is repressing everything else. The word of repression today. But Founders Sunday discussion, that was a long, well-participated discussion about many things. There were two topics in there that I think were of, well, there were more than two topics. But two topics I think that are going to touch on everyone’s interest is, wait, let me think of those.

What were they? They were, why did gold sell off, right? And there are multiple theories on that. How to express if you’re bullish now at this late stage is getting very tactical and what we think is going to happen going down the road. There’s a lot of topics in there. And there’s also, of course, an update on mercantilism. And mercantilism from a point of view of philosophy and how the world is no longer global, it’s a some-zero game. And that’s really coloring, I think, the behavior of everyone, not just the U.S. The chat, there have been a ton of questions in the chat.

I think I got to a decent amount of them during the Founders discussion. And that recording is from premium. Everyone could see that. Data on deck. I have to look into it, but CPI has been rescheduled for Friday. It probably has to do with you need a CPI data number so you can redo COLAs, cost of living update adjustments for retirees and what have you and unions and what have you. So we’ll keep it short today. I do want to look at the charts, though, for a second. So I want to zoom out a little bit here.

But go to 41 as I’m 42, 42, 60. Anyway, I want to I’m looking for a pattern here and we’ve all seen all the metals rise and it seems like they’re rallying for different reasons. Silver, there’s a short squeeze. Platinum demand is up. Gold is a monetary hedge or a debasement hedge. I think there’s more to it than that. I mean, we’ll put it this way. There’s less to it than that. All the stories and all the reasons for gold rally, you know, and all the metals. I think they’re rallying for the same reason. So I’m going to look for that pattern.

I’m going to rationalize that. So here’s the daily silver, platinum, copper, gold, and I looked at palladium as well. And if you look at it, you say, OK, they’re all rallying, right? Right. So you go, all right, well, maybe maybe the dollar is weaker during this time frame starting, let’s say, let’s say September 1st, right? Just August 26 is really the date I have in mind. But let’s just use September 1st. So let’s see. Has the dollar been weaker since September 1st? No, it’s net been stronger. Have 10 year yields been collapsing or screaming higher since September 1st? They’ve been lowered.

They’ve been weaker, which is good for bonds, but not compellingly so. Remember, gold’s rallying because rates are going up. Gold’s rallying because rates are going down. Gold’s just rallying. So are stocks, you know, getting hit since September 1st? We had a big correction the other day, but stocks are not hit. They’re net up. Does oil have anything to do with this? Well, shit, I mean, you know, oil is a reason to not be long gold. Oil as an indicator of inflation, which seems to be fading in relevance, is not telling you to be long. Let’s pull silver back up there.

All right. So I’ve done this already. I want to recognize this and I’m just going to walk you through it. All right. So there’s your pattern. You say, OK, everything’s going up and to the right, up and to the right, right? Let’s go to the weekly, though. All right. And let’s start with gold. Actually, let’s just let’s do this. And let’s start with August. Let me hide the Bollinger Bands here. Let’s start with. Let’s use gold for our for our I know August 26th. That’s when it started. There you go. There’s your date. OK, so look at gold, look at silver, look at platinum and look at copper.

They all started from different points, silver hovering near the highs, platinum hovering near the highs, copper well off the highs on a big sell off and gold essentially at the highs. Look at the behavior of all four of these markets after the dotted line. Everything is to varying degrees, parabolic spike, right? Parabolic or what’s the word? Exponential, geometric, parabolic. I know what the numbers were. That’s basically it. Look at all three. Look at all four of these markets. Now, let’s let’s substitute palladium for platinum and see if palladium does that as well. And palladium does do that as well.

What are we saying? Like, August 25th is my is my yeah, look, there it is. Right. So there you go. In fact, in fact, let’s start with August 4th because copper gives the clearest change in behavior. Right. August 4th, the market starts ramping and gets geometric. Right. Palladium starts the week after, starts ramping and gets geometric. Silver starts ramping and gets geometric a little faster. Gold flat lines for three weeks and starts moving in a very orderly but geometric thing. I would say this to you. I don’t care about the reasons. It’s all the same buyer.

It’s all the same buyer. Someone is buying silver, palladium, platinum, copper and gold. They ain’t buying oil, you know, they ain’t buying corn. They ain’t buying soybeans. They’re buying all the metals. So who is buying all the metals? I don’t know. But all the stories that we hear and all the stories that we read and they’re all different reasons. They are sorry to say to make us feel like we understand what’s going on and we do understand what’s going on. And I’m telling you that behind the stories. Here’s a story. Someone is buying everything. Who are the candidates? The US government just listed silver as a critical mineral.

The US government just started buying rare earth companies. It just started ring-fencing its natural resources. The US government, whether directly or through proxies, is my first or second leading candidate. My other first or second leading candidate is the macro discretionary funds who see what I see, who think like I think, and have a shit ton more money than I do. And they go out saying, well, if the US government is buying all these rare earth companies and the China thing is happening, well, guess what? The US government is going to need to buy commodities. And so they’re buying it.

So here’s your event. Your event is we’re at war. It’s a trade war. It is potentially going to get worse. You may see relief when Trump and Xi meet in October 30th. But this buying is by people judging by how it’s being bought. I think it’s macro discretionary. I think they’re putting in for a longer term play here. I mean, come on, every one of these goes like this. Every one of these goes like, to use the term official, a J. It’s a J. Everything’s a J. Everything’s a J. That’s it, man. It’s one buyer. Maybe it’s more than one buyer, but it’s one mindset.

It’s a government. It’s a sovereign entity that the government operates, like a sovereign wealth fund, or it’s a macro discretionary fund that’s smarter than most people out there, or it’s macro discretionary funds. It’s one mind that’s buying this. Question is, are they done? Is that why we had that little thing there? Could be, could be, could be a VWAP trade. Could be a pause. It could be, okay, we’re done buying as we head to the summit with Xi and Trump. And let’s see what happens afterwards. Could be, right? I don’t know. But it’s one freaking buyer.

Have a great day. We sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here. Hope you enjoyed the show and we’ll see you again tomorrow. Thank you. [tr:trw].

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