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Summary
➡ Inflation is reducing the value of your money, signaling a financial reset. The Morgan Report, led by David Morgan for over 25 years, helps investors understand market trends and protect their wealth during these uncertain times. It’s not just about investing in gold and silver, but being prepared for the future. Visit TheMorganReport.com to download a free report and take control of your financial future.
Transcript
The highest price, all-time high, was in the year 1477 at $806 an ounce. If you use the Federal Reserve’s inflation calculator and find out what a $2,025 is, you’ll find out it’s double that. Great week for the metals, particularly the white metals, platinum, silver, even palladium, the end of the week. Another thing I want to point out again, I’m on the landing page, The Morgan Report dot com. You scroll down a little bit. We put up kind of the most recent interview that I do, so you can just scroll down a little bit from the header.
And if you’re not on the free list, I highly recommend that you are, because you get certain insights, sometimes deals on metals, not always, but sometimes, and of course I send them out. It’s just a great way to stay in touch. Of course, if you want to bypass that, the keys to getting to our channels are here in these icons at the top, Twitter, YouTube, LinkedIn, and those are all available just as a click of mouse. So moving on, first thing I want to talk about today is not the breakout at silver, which everybody’s talked about and we have, and if you hear the latest interviews, I’m rather conservative and I’ve been at this a long time.
And one of the interviews I did was breakout or fakeout with Daniela Cambone late in the week. And I said, one day doesn’t make a market. Yes, it’s gone through 35. That’s a fact, kind of maintain it. And I alluded to The Morgan Rule, which all the members are familiar with, and I’ve done in the public domain several times. So I am looking for what happens on Monday, but I fully expect with it closing over 36 on Friday, that we will see the silver price maintain above 35. If it dropped a dollar, it would still maintain the over 35 rule.
And that would indicate an 80% probability that is a breakout and not a fakeout. So I thought I’d bring up something that I’ve shown in the past, but haven’t shown for quite some time. And this is a chart of the silver price in constant dollars. So it says here, the real silver price from 1344 to 1998 in 1998 dollars. So the inflation lie has been taken out of this chart. So for example, the highest price all time high was in the year 1477 at $806 an ounce. If you use the Federal Reserve’s inflation calculator and find out what a 2025 dollar is, you’ll find out it’s double that.
So if you want to use it in today’s dollars, just take everything I’m about to say and multiply it by two and you’ll be there. But this is interesting because what this chart shows is silver’s function is money up until the demonetization of silver around this time frame here. And we see that basically it’s been in a downtrend for a very, very long time with exception of a couple of spikes, which I’ll talk about in a minute. But as far as price is concerned, so if you go over here in the 13th century, you’re looking at above $300 an ounce.
Of course, today’s price is 600 and that lasted approximately, and I’m doing this free hand, so give me a break, but probably a couple hundred years or so. Then it dropped down and say this is $200 price, which today would be $400. And so it’s just under that. So I’m just going to round it up to $200, but nearly $200 from that point, 1584, we’ll call it till 1784. We’ll give it another couple hundred years. Then another down move, and then it stayed at roughly 90, which would be, you know, 180 today from what here, 1800 we’ll say to about 1884 or 1873 was demonetized.
And afterwards demonetized, you see a really sharp fall off a spike in the 1980 High Hunt Brothers down. And here’s where Buffett bought on an inflation adjusted base basis. Uh, the all time low was right here, and that’s basically when Buffett bought. So he was a value investor and I posted something on the community channel with Buffett talking about his silver purchase and Charlie Munger looking like he’s bored to tears and Charlie finally speaks at the end of this video. He’s kind of be reading Warren about even bothering silver, but he wasn’t real mean.
And what was funny is the truth. I mean, what Charlie said was what will 2% of Berkshire’s, uh, investing ability do and wasn’t referencing just silver, which it was less than 2% as I’ve talked about many times. And yet it was a substantial portion of the COMEX very substantial. But anyway, back on point. So I want people to understand that, uh, in today’s dollars, we certainly have a long ways to go on the upside. And you know, where is it? I don’t know. I mean, the equilibrium for the last, I think it’s 40, 50 years, as far as what is the average gold silver ratio? It’s around 50.
So that would imply that silver could double from here from 35 to 70. The gold does nothing. It maintains around 3,500 and the ratio would be at the average. If silver outperforms gold, which I expect it will in the, by the end of this bull market, you should see silver at a multiple, maybe 25. No one knows. You know, people talk about one to one. I’ve mentioned in the past that, uh, Bunker Hunt thought five to one was the correct ratio. Again, no one really knows. I think since we’ve already seen 33 to one in this bull market so far, that we will get back to that at least.
And at the end where everything spikes, I would expect it to do better than that. And you could, you know, be aggressive and say twice as good as that, 16 to one, when it hit here in the hunt spike. And that would be the monetary ratio, uh, 16 to one. So I’m going to take a moment and show you the May issue came out in early May. I’m not going to read the whole thing to you, but, uh, basically I want to show you, you know, to stay ahead of the curve, you’ve got to have good information.
And what I wrote about in the early days of May was, you know, where are we going? Are we going into the long-feared hyperinflationary blow-off or are we going to a debt spiral? I talked about that. I’m going to scroll pretty quickly here, talking about the dollar still strong. Trump definitely wants a weaker dollar, the dysfunction in the treasury market. And I’ve said already an army of gold may have peaked for a, for the year and is likely to consolidate over the summer months. So for the year, that’s a really bold statement.
Time will tell, but certainly it looks like it’s going to consolidate for the summer months, talking about the problems in the, in the bond market. But then I said, we spot silver recently breaking technical levels and closing the gold silver ratio from a hundred. We believe silver is prime for a catch-up rally, provided gold does not fall apart, which of course we don’t think will happen. I said, if we get the silver gold ratio to 70, which it’s just below a hundred now, we’ll put out an alert. And I talked about why that would be the case.
And I also talked about really, if you wanted to profit from gold, you might want to write some options on your gold stocks. You might want to sell some gold. I really wouldn’t necessarily recommend it, but that, you know, there will be a timeframe where you could probably sell it in May, go away, come back and after labor day and probably buy it back for the same price or, or thereabouts. And that’s again, a rather bold statement, uh, to be clear. It’s not time to abandon the metals for the longterm, uh, remains intact.
If you made substantial gains in gold or the miners in the past 12, 18 months, it could be time to lock in partial profits. And I’m a fan of taking partial profits. One psychologically, it feels good. You’ve made the right choice. You get to get an investment and why not reward yourself somewhat? Uh, you know, there’s the old adage, you never go broke, taking a profit. Uh, talked about the juniors, talked about where I saw gold, telling how to kind of stop, I would put on it. And then of course I talked about platinum later on and platinum’s had quite a run.
And I think, uh, both silver and platinum are going to play catch up to gold where that lands. I’m not sure. So I’ll leave it at that, uh, make a great weekend. I’ll be back with you next week with another weekly perspective, but based on the historical records of silver being coveted as money, uh, it certainly has a long ways to go. So high ho silver away. This is David Morgan signing out. The U S government debt is about to cross $37 trillion. That’s not a typo. That’s trillion with a T tariffs are being used to try and even the playing fields.
Global supply chains are shifting. Inflation isn’t going away and the value of your dollar. It’s quietly being drained while no one is really talking about this. The truth is we’re living through the early stages of a financial reset, whether anyone wants to admit it or not. And if you’re still relying on mainstream headlines or financial advisors who just tell you to write it out, you could be blindsided when things really shift. That’s where the Morgan report comes in. For over 25 years, David Morgan has been helping investors cut through the noise. He tracks what actually drives markets from precious metals and mining stocks to global debt and monetary policy and show you how to protect and grow your wealth when the system is under stress.
This isn’t just about gold and silver. It’s about having a clear eyed view of where things are headed and making sure you’re not caught off guard. The Morgan Report is a world of rising debt, unstable currencies, and economic uncertainty. Go to TheMorganReport.com today. Download your free report, get informed, get ahead, and take back control of your financial future. TheMorganReport.com, because $37 trillion in debt won’t fix itself. Thanks for watching. [tr:trw].
See more of Arcadia Economics on their Public Channel and the MPN Arcadia Economics channel.