Are you ready for the bombshell that’s about to shatter the Democrats’ mid-term fantasies? The numbers don’t lie, and they are absolutely devastating for the woke left. What we’re witnessing isn’t just a political shift. It is the complete collapse of Democrat hopes to retake the House of Representatives, not just for 2026, but for literally the foreseeable future. And the data is so shocking, it’s going to leave you speechless. I’m talking openly, publicly panicking. They’re seeing the numbers, the data, and they’re starting to realize to their horror that things may have indeed already slipped away for the Democrats.

2026 is going to be a woke left nightmare. Let’s start with the latest generic ballot polling. Now this is the RCP average. That stands for Real Clear Politics Polling Average. This is all the generic ballots. So this is all the polling, the good, the bad, the ugly, that asks respondents if they plan to be voting Democrat or Republican. All averaged together. You take the generic ballot polling average back in October of 2017, a full year before Trump’s first midterm election. So we’re using this by comparison. Democrats were cruising with a 9.2 point lead in the generic ballot.

That massive advantage stayed consistent all throughout 2018, ultimately delivering them 40 seats in control of the House. Then take a look at October 18th of 2021. So that’s a year out from the 2022 midterms when the Democrats would end up losing control of the House to the GOP. At that same time, a year out, the Democrats fell to a lead of just 2.3%. Now that’s key, by the way, and we talk a lot about this on this channel, so make sure to smack that bell and subscribe button. The Democrats get so much of their national polling leads from concentrated areas like New York and LA and Chicago and Boston and the White House, because they get so much of their support regionally concentrated.

They’ve got to have a national polling lead of at least 4 to 5% in order to win across the board, because while they’re going to certainly get tens of millions of votes, you know, say in the five boroughs of New York and in LA and in Chicago, they’re not going to get anything like that support in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin or Michigan or North Carolina or Arizona. So they have to be way up nationally in a way that the Republicans simply don’t have to be because their support is far more regionally spread out.

And you see it on the maps, right? Every presidential election, you just see the sea of red with some blue splashes on the coast. So this is why Democrats can be ahead by 2 to 3, 2.3% in the generic, well, 2 to 3% in the generic ballot a year out from an election and still lose. All right, so going back now to the RCP polling average, take a look at where we are today. So they were up 9.2 a year before they won the House back in 2018. They were up 2.3 a year before they lost in 2022.

Look at where they are now in October, a year out from the next midterms in 2026. Gang, they’re up 1.6, 1.6. That is a disaster in the making. That is an electoral disaster. But the generic ballot disaster gang is just the tip of the iceberg. The real earthquake comes from voter registration data that shows a massive, I’m talking a seismic shift toward the Republicans. Take a look at the column to your right, the right of the screen. If you’re listening by way of a 20 million podcast downloads, I’ll describe it for you.

In the 28 states that track voter registration by party, Republicans have gained in voter registration a staggering net advantage of over 1 million voters since last year’s election. We have net gained nearly 1.4 million voters over the Democrats. To make it even worse, since 2020, Democrats have lost over 2 million registered voters while Republicans gained 2.4 million. So it’s a mind blowing 4.6 million voter swing over, registered voter swing over to the GOP. And it’s only grown in 2025. I mean, look at the month of September alone. Just last month, Republicans gained nearly 30,000 voters nationally while the Democrats lost over 55,000.

People were leaving the Democrats. They’re hemorrhaging voters. That’s a near 85,000 voter registration swing to the Republicans just last month alone. I mean, it’s absolutely stunning. Every single state that tracks voter registration by party, even California, shows the Republicans crushing the Democrats. Now gang, what you have to get here is that voter registration trends are the single most accurate predictor for how people will vote in a future election. So you don’t, I mean, the logic here is you don’t register for a party only to turn around and vote for the other party.

That’s just not generally how people work. Our good friend, Seth Keschel, is one of the single most accurate election modelers out there, the near perfect prediction record for 2024. He only uses voter registration models. That’s it. And he’s like, I have never seen trends like this before. This is beyond anything we could have imagined. And again, it’s showing up in the polls. If the Democrats are only up by one in the generic ballot, yeah, they’re going to lose by a couple of million votes overall in the returns. Yeah. But things, if you can believe it, get even worse.

We’re just scratching the surface here. Okay. Butter the popcorn. You’re going to absolutely love this. Hey gang, you asked for more. So here it is. I’m pulling back the curtain and inviting you into my world. Turley Walks is officially live every week. I’m dropping unfiltered insights and exclusive behind the scenes moments just for you. New episodes go live every Thursday only on our Patriot portal. This isn’t my usual uncensored Monday night Q and A where I do a deep dive with my Turley troublemakers. Turley Walks is unscripted, raw and packed with personal insights that you won’t get anywhere else.

It’s available exclusively from members of the courageous Patriot club. Head on over to Turley.pub slash club or scan the QR code to join us and lack access to all the exclusive content. Let’s dive in together. We’ve got two canaries in the coal mine right now. The warning signs are flashing and what should be otherwise very, very safe Democrat territories in Virginia would start as a commanding lead for Democrat Abigail Spamburger has collapsed to a virtual dead heat. The Trafalgar group poll shows Spamburger leading Republican winsome Sears by just 2.5 points well within the margin of error and in New Jersey it’s even more shocking.

The Democrat Mikey Sherrill is struggling against Republican Jack Chittarelli in Jersey. Democrat insiders are openly expressing panic about low enthusiasm among black and Hispanic voters with some party leaders warning that traditional Democrat constituencies may not be turning out for this election. In my opinion they’re way behind on that one. What they’ll find is actually even more shocking. What’s more shocking is that non-white working-class voters as we have been tracking on this channel for for my years now along with Rich Barris of the People’s Pundit, non-white working-class voters largely Latino have defected in mass to the GOP like never before and it’s happening in Jersey so it’s not a matter of them not turning out it’s a matter of them actually turning out but voting for Jack Chittarelli.

Now make no mistake no matter how these races turn out I’m all for Jack this is my backyard in Jersey I’m all for Jack especially would love to see Winston Sears pull off an upset and definitely I would love to see Jay Jones crushed down in Virginia. Regardless however how they turn it the very fact I mean these races should not even be remotely close in an off-year election with a Republican in the White House. We shouldn’t even be having this conversation so the very fact that these two races are nail biters alone is an indicator of just how much Democrats are struggling as a party right now again in the end they can pull

this off but they’re having to spend more money they’re having to spend more political capital Obama’s coming out to both Jersey and Virginia to campaign I mean they can’t believe this is happening right now in two otherwise very very safe blue states and again things just continue to spiral out of control for the Democrats to take a look at the latest fundraising figures I mean look at this cash on hand for the RNC Republican National Committee 86 million cash on hand for the DNC 12 86 million to 12 the GOP is 7x the cash is DNC I mean it’s stunning it’s stunning now it’s I mean in fairness it’s true the president’s party almost always has a fundraising advantage it’s hard to beat the sitting president when it comes to fundraising but seven to one and then you combine that with the voter registration plunge the neck and neck contest in the blue states the polling drops I mean you put it all together oh oh and the worst is yet to come if

everything stayed the same way as it was back in 2022 just like what we’ve been analyzing right I mean the Democrats would conceivably be staring to the abyss right they they’re at a lower point than they were in October of 2021 right before they went on to lose in 2022 right so I mean if everything just stayed the same between now and 2022 they’d still be in a whole heap of trouble but lo and behold the Republicans have their ultimate trump card redistricting Republicans just picked up a brand new seat in North Carolina don’t know if you heard about this just in the last 24 hours North Carolina’s redrawing their congressional

map along with the five new seats already locked in with Texas and the the new seat secured by Missouri Ohio’s coming in with two to three Florida number three to four Indiana’s gonna give us one so this is all giving the GOP all together a net pickup assuming California’s proposition 50 will pass and redraw another five Democrat seats we’re looking at a net pickup of around seven twelve all together in about seven if California passes GOP now if that’s the case if the GOP are getting a net pickup of seven with the redistricting they’re at a lock at 2018 in the house the cook political report already has them at a safe 211 GOP seats

a net pickup of seven gives them automatically without having to flip a single swing seat 2018 in solid red districts which is exactly what you need for the congressional majority and lo and behold the real game changer what the Democrats are really panicking over could come from none other than the Supreme Court in just the next few weeks in Louisiana versus Calais case just argued last week we’ve been talking about it the conservative majority appears ready to strike down section two the VRA the Voting Rights Act and if that happens Republicans could eliminate up to 19 Democrat seats across the south and which of course

means they get to pick up an additional 19 you add that to the net seven and we’re talking add 26 25 26 seats to the 211 they already got locked up according to cook political poor report I mean gang even the New York Times is admitting if that happens it’s over it’s done it’s done the the Democrats will literally never possibly in our lifetimes never possibly you get you get hyperbole there but Democrats are not coming back to congressional power anytime soon they will have been more or less permanently barred from the house for the foreseeable future until there’s an entirely different new political paradigm shift which we

haven’t seen in about 100 years since FDR what we’re witnessing here is the convergence of multiple devastating trends for Democrats their generic ballot advantage has completely been evaporated voter registration swung massively toward Republicans all across the country traditional Democrats strongholds like Virginia and New Jersey are both in play as we speak and the Supreme Court may hand Republicans the ability to redraw the electoral map at will in such a way that the Democrats will be permanently locked out of power the data doesn’t lie and right now it’s telling the story of an incoming Republican tsunami that will

leave Democrats wondering what hit them I mean the only question isn’t whether Republicans will hold the house it’s now by how much they’ll expand the majority at this point right I just the numbers don’t lie the red wave isn’t coming it’s already here and Democrats are about to get swept away by forces they never saw coming
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